While I can agree that Ultimate's a fantastic game and its side content is way better than Smash 4's ever was (even if it could use some variety - you can only get so much mileage out of fighting CPUs over and over, take it from me), I wouldn't exactly call that final Direct handling things well. They saved basically every piece of bad news for that one direct - Kencineroar box theory, literally the least interesting possible outcome for the base roster, being true, no Stadium modes bar Multi-Man, tons of particularly painful AT deconfirmations followed by a plant, etc - which is the opposite of good PR. They could've easily sprinkled some of that unfortunate info in some of the previous Directs to soften the blow... but they didn't. Kudos to Sakurai and Nintendo for making a great game and all that, but frankly, I think the only way I wouldn't have been disappointed by that Direct is if I had went in actively expecting to be disappointed.
I don't think you can blame Nintendo for Kencineroar Box theory as the end. Smash has never really had the most hype announcements at the end and again Sakurai had stressed that they went overboard in the August Direct, so the end realistically was looking rough pre-November Direct. I mean Ken's kind of a big deal too, and while, yes, he is just an Echo, he's been terribly underappreciated given that announcement. They had also positioned that Direct to focus on World of Light too. That was clear from August going forward that the last mode was going to be a big reveal later on. Even though people like to complain about the deconfirmations, that had also been set as a precedent as early as E3. Each of the three Directs focused on Smash had equally painful deconfirmations. E3 had Bomberman and Waluigi, August had Shovel Knight, Krystal, and Ashley, and November had Isaac and Shadow. I guess Springman and Rex technically count, but everybody in the community knew they weren't making base and honestly Springman was always kind of questionable even though I don't think a lot of speculation reflected that. Spirits remain to be seen as far as they impact DLC.
Again, Incineroar was a more standard character. But I think a very good portion of the salt towards him (And he doesn't deserve, he's genuinely a cool and unique character) was just from people hoping to "BTFO Verge" or whatever. Incineroar became the scapegoat for all of the community's resistance to leakers and hope for Grinch. His reveal carried so much negativity as a choice more because of what he meant rather than his own character (And also people endlessly complaining about the number of Pokemon like that really should matter...)
I don't know, it's a lot easier for me to reflect upon November and see it as less inherently flawed. Maybe a slight change up in reveal order, but that doesn't really change whose on the roster and would have just been more grief in the community pre-November Direct.
They've handled the game in a reasonable fashion. "Extremely well" seems a bit of an overstatement. While I agree that there were many modes that seemed pointless and unfun in Smash 4, there were things like Smash Run that I thought were an absolute blast that I hope get patched into Ultimate at some point in the near future.
As of now, Ultimate is extremely bare-bones. In terms of characters and gameplay, the game is definitely unmatched, but in terms of pretty much everything else, it's severely lacking. Let's look at the online. I'd have to say that Smash 4 had the best format we've seen to date. There was "For fun" to keep the casuals happy with items and FFA, and then there was "For Glory" with 1v1 and no items to appease the competitive crowd. Now, granted, I much prefer Ultimate's ability to customize the rulesets and not be stuck with FD stages only with 2 stocks and 3 minutes. I despised that format because the timer was waaaay too short and often resulted in a crapload of sudden deaths (in ultimate, I've only ever experienced 4 out of hundreds of battles), but I digress. My greatest issue with Ultimate's online is the massive pain in the butt it is to play with friends in any way, shape or form. You can only play arenas with one person per switch, so if you had hoped to have yourself and a friend/sibling/spouse/etc. play local while connecting to a pair of players elsewhere, you're outta luck. This wasn't the case in Smash 4. My brother and I could just make a room and have our cousins jump in from their house and we could play 2v2s etc. No more. Then we have Quickplay. I think we're all aware of the issues with this but to name a few: Can't switch characters without dropping the opponent, can't turn off GSP if you want to go full casual and inconsistent matchmaking.
As far as single player modes, sorry but World of Light is a monotonous slog of uninspired AI battles. Anyone who's played subspace emissary knows that ain't a story mode. It's better than nothing, but it is what it is. The whole spirits mechanic is overrated and by the time you have all the most uber spirits to equip, WoL has already long since been beaten into submission.
Now, don't get me wrong, the fans are very much to blame if we get our hopes too high, but holy crap was the Grinch leak a low blow. I mean, it was a fairly well-crafted hoax with all kinds of planted rumors and such, literally promising our wildest dreams.....and then we got Ken...and Incineroar....and Piranha Plant....the end. It was such a drastic plunge in expectations, I could hardly believe it. It was like being told we were going to Disneyland, but then getting dropped off in skid row (all due respect to their fans).
Like I said, as far as characters and gameplay goes, Ultimate is a slam dunk, but it's far from perfect even by the standards of previous iterations. And the reason why I say that characters are the primary source of hype is because they are the ones that rake in the casuals. There are so many people that have yet to get into Smash, but when they see characters like Cloud or Bayonetta or Joker, they start to come out of the woodwork. "Hey, maybe I'll finally break down and buy a switch to play Smash." I know this because I have at least two friends that did just that. They refused to buy anything Nintendo OR smash until that one favorite character of theirs got a sexy reveal trailer and BAM! New converts brought into the fold. Which brings me to the single player options.
While I personally don't really stress too much about it, there are tons of people that aren't fixated on the competitive/online aspect of smash. They base their purchase on how much content there is BESIDES just characters. In that regard, Ultimate has some serious room to grow. I know how much work Sakurai has put in thus far, but if we don't get any legitimately cool modes patched in later on, we'll be seeing a sharp decline in all but the usual staunch smash fans playing by the end of the year. Not saying I really care either way who's playing, but it's just a prediction.
Oh, I know Ultimate's not perfect and a big part of that is online. The Online needs to be completely reworked in my opinion and have actual playlists rather than this weird hybrid system with priorities given to certain ways of play. I think Sakurai misplayed his hand a little bit there and underestimated how much people don't like playing Smash unless it's with their preferred way. The other technical stuff is true as well, but a lot of that can be addressed in updates I think.
Smash Run isn't coming back. People expecting it too should realize it was the 3DS's premiere mode for a reason. It's a huge investment of resources and Sakurai already got to take some shortcuts from Kid Icarus Uprising. It was always one of the least likely modes to come back. Too many assets that need to be made from the ground-up, and while the mode was fun, I don't necessarily have the payoff in returning anyway to justify the work.
Similarly, Subspace was fun as well. But it was also pretty barebones as far as gameplay was concerned and another massive resource dump for all of the assets and especially cut scenes. Subspace is super nostalgic for me, but it definitely plays a little like a poor man's Kirby on reflection. World of Light might be too damn padded, but it works fairly well as a campaign substitute when they genuinely didn't have the time and resources to just poor behind a mode. But I know it's a personal taste thing. I still enjoy it, but I see where others don't. I think it's about as successful as Subspace, just too padded for its own good. They both promise more than they achieve, and if it wasn't for the cut scenes, I really don't think a lot of Subspace would be remembered as fondly.
Again, I can't stress how much Grinch made no sense. People to this day will claim it was such a well made hoax, but it wasn't. Everything fell apart the more things were scrutinized and the only,
the only possible way it could be true relied on Sakurai lying to us constantly for some big GOTCHA moment a month before the game released. That "drastic plunge in expectations" has got to owned by the community more than it is.
I don't believe the whole "casuals want specific characters" argument holds a ton of weight. Nothing really points to that as reality. Ultimate has the fewest newcomers of any Smash game in history, yet has incredibly well. And that really comes down to just having Smash on Switch and creating a massive successful hype campaign around the game by showing how much bang it had for your buck. While there's no way for me to know it, I'd wager that there were relatively few people waiting for Ridley or King K. Rool to really buy a Smash game. Their popularity and demand stemmed entirely from a community of people who already played the game. All my anecdotal evidence also points towards "more casual people" (I.E. friends, family, acquaintances) didn't really care who was in the game. The number of characters impressed them and created hype when many of them had re-invested in Nintendo thanks to the success of the Switch. And most of those people just break out Smash to play with friends and couldn't be bothered to care about any other mode than standard Smash.