When Sakurai said Nintendo chose the characters for this pass, it really does feel like it. It has different feeling from Fighter's Pass 1 for sure.
So here's my hot take on all of that. What Sakurai has flat out
told us is that Nintendo will cold call him or just show up and ask if he can include a specific character. He also told us Nintendo ultimately determines reveal and release for these fighters. Plus, for FP1, he
did say that Nintendo chose the DLC but he
had the final say if he could make a character work or not.
Throwing my own brain juices into that gumbo, I think what we can infer is that Nintendo has its list of who they want to see and/or promote, but Sakurai also has his own say and can reject Nintendo if he feels that the character is "difficult" or doesn't feel "right." Nintendo can then veto that rejection because, um,
money and Sakurai has to figure it out. This was most evidence with Steve, where it was clear he enjoyed Minecraft and had given the character thought for a long time but didn't feel he could make it work until Nintendo probably forced him to. You can also kind of tell where Sakurai was at with each character by how he presents them to the audience. NONE of this is objective, all subjective, but felt like listing it out:
Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy - Fan demand that Nintendo and Sakurai bent for. Not much else here.
Ryu - Sakurai himself stated how much enjoyed SF2 and wanted to see how Ryu could work in Smash. This was probably a case of "Can I get this happening, Nintendo?" "Let's check the books... hmm... Ok, sure. We're launching his games on the Switch anyway"
Corrin & Bayo - 100% shills, I don't care what
you think. They came from the Smash Ballot (allegedly) but conveniently also pumped recent games at the time. I believe they probably did make a splash on the ballot, but it was something where Nintendo saw an opportunity and Sakurai saw something to hide behind when he made them into playable fighters ("But you VOTED for them, remember?")
Cloud - 100% Sakurai. FF was one of the top requested ballot choices and Sakurai said in an interview he was given access to pretty much whatever protag he wanted, but he said "it had to be Cloud." This was a matter of Sakurai knowing the pulse of the gaming community pretty well. Yeah, some of us wanted Terra or Black Mage or whatever, but it really
did have to be Cloud. There was no other option. As far as Nintendo's say, they probably just saw dollar signs and gave the thumbs up.
Joker - Sakurai enjoyed Persona 5 immensely (per interviews/social media). P5 was THE game leading up until the reveal. Joker did not get a Sakurai Presents video, but it's likely he was a fan. Seems to be a joint effort to get Joker in the game coming from both Sakurai and Nintendo. The lack of SMT content is super glaring and may point to Nintendo not thinking it was valuable to include at the time.
Hero - I think this is a similar position to Cloud, with some Corrin tossed in for good measure. DQ had to be highly requested and it made sense to include; Sakurai knew the gaming community was expecting it. Nintendo also saw an opportunity to work with a 3rd party developer and shill a game at the same time. Totally speculation here, but maybe everyone heard Erdrick because it
was Erdrick until Nintendo added a stipulation that 11 had to be the main costume.
Banjo - This
feels like NOA pushed for this character. Banjo is wildly popular in the West, while Rare games sort of... existed?... in Japan. I can see Nintendo of Japan basically saying "you're allowed ONE character, NOA" and Treehouse went "GUH-HUH" and that was it. Sakurai did NOT seem enthused about this character
one bit during the Presents video, and I know I'm not the only one who caught that vibe. He knew the demand was there and spoke of the character in the past, somewhat highly too, but I would be shocked if Sakurai had Banjo on "the shortlist" of characters he absolutely wanted to put into the game. For what it's worth tho, Banjo feels like a throwback character in so many ways, so it's evidence Sakurai had thought about how they'd play for a while prior to Ultimate.
Terry - This one's clearly Sakurai bias, and that's fine. Nintendo probably threw him a bone and said "you get one, Mr. Sakurai." SNK had also been very supportive of the Switch since Day 1, so it only made sense. Sakurai extensively talked about this character and
why, even throwing in that "just because you don't recognize someone doesn't mean they aren't a cool idea" line
Byleth - Corrin 2.0
Min Min - This feels like another Nintendo decision. They probably realized that ARMS sold decently enough but hadn't become another Splatoon like they wanted. Sakurai mentioned timing was off for including playable ARMS characters in Smash. Add these two together and it kind of paints the picture that Nintendo had wanted ARMS in base game and didn't get it in time. Sakurai also explained why he chose this specific character as well, and it boiled down to "I didn't know who to pick so I was going to pick the most generic fighter but I got told so uh... here's the one everyone loves instead."
Steve - Very well explained, imo, already. Sakurai sat on this for a while and couldn't come up with an idea. He was a fan, but didn't think it could work easily. Nintendo kept pushing him on it and finally he caved. End of story.
Sephiroth - This is likely several things, but most similar to Cloud. Nintendo probably approached or were approached by Square and the conversation led to getting another character. I bet the 7 Squares leak was legit and this had been cooking for a while. They settled on Sephiroth because of Sakurai bias and the fact that they knew this character would have mass appeal due to his legacy, plus he'd make
$$$. Love it or hate it, Sephiroth was dumb popular on Japanese polls and he absolutely appeals to that Western boomer demographic moreso than Geno. Sakurai maybe always had Sephiroth in the back of his mind too, considering how much of a hard-on he clearly has for FF7.