I gotta ask, am I the only one who doesn't believe the SMRPG remake\sequel rumors? Like, as much as I would love a sequel or remake of this game, I personally feel its more on the wishful thinking side personally.
Also, I came across this interview yesterday and I think this could definitely hurt the chances of us getting a new SMRPG remake\sequel. This interview was from 2013, however, so things most likely have changed from seven years ago. (FYI, I don't think this interview affects Geno's chances for Smash, just the SMRPG remake\sequel rumors).
Super Mario RPG Interview
I think it could happen... but I'm going to treat it as fake until we actually get some more info around the subject. Though like you I don't think that it really affects Geno's chances for Smash.
Some people act like Square and Nintendo's relationship only started to improve since like 5-6 years ago, when that's completely wrong. Square and Nintendo were mostly back to normal during the early DS era/late GBA era(around 2005). Otherwise why would they have bothered to release things like DQ 9, TWEWY, Fortune Street, the Rocket Slime games, Some FF Remakes/Spin-offs, Some DQ Remakes, Chrono Trigger+, some KH spin-offs, most of which were pretty much exclusive to the DS for a decent amount of time. Even before that we had KH Chain of Memories, and the FF GBA Advance ports as well. By the time the 3DS rolled around, we already started to see many Square games early on in it's life. KH 3D was one of the first BIG AAA 3rd party game confirmed for the system, there were the theatrhythm FF games, and the two Bravely games, alongside the ports/remakes of the non-Nintendo DQ games. Acting like it took until around Cloud got in Smash to say that Square/Nintendo's relationship started improving is missing the mark by a decade or so. Sure we didn't get the AAA home console releases, but that's more likely due to the shortcomings of both the Wii and Wii U rather than on Square itself.
They
could've made a SMRPG remake anytime since the DS or so, but they chose not to. Instead both Square and Nintendo are pretty much fine porting it to whatever system as long as the deal is favorable to them in some way. This obviously doesn't mean that an
SMRPG Remake can't come
now, just that it doesn't really benefit it's chances. Square currently has a ton of project in development, and are a completely different company from the way they were in the mid 1990's.
Currently, it doesn't really benefit them to work with a Nintendo IP when most of their own IP's are pretty well off; not to mention that they have a ton of stuff already in the works/presumably in the works which makes it less likely that they're going to concern themselves with 3rd party collaborations on their end. I mean we just got NEO TWEWY announced, but on top of that there is FF XVI, FF XIV Expansion, FF 7 Remake part 2, DQ 12, KH 4, Nier Remake, Nier/Drakenguard Sequel, Octopath Traveler 2, Bravely Default 2, Romancing Saga, Mana series, and more (alongside all the spin-offs that Square tends to release). Unless a potential contract is really stacked in their own favor (as opposed to Nintendo's), I think Square is just going to pursue improving their own IP's. Heck, even in terms of revivals; I see SMRPG mentioned a lot less than a potential Chrono Trigger Remake or a Xenogears remake.
On Nintendo's end, while I think they'd be willing to put Geno in Smash; let's not forget they're also insanely controlling with their own IP, especially in regards to Mario. I mean the latest collaboration we've had with the IP is freaking Rabbids dressed up in Mario costumes, not a original character like Geno for example. On top of that presumably Rayman was going to be in Super Mario Maker but was cut for whatever reason, and I doubt it was because of Ubisoft. I doubt they'd want Square to have as much control as they did with the original SMRPG release. Not to mention the aforementioned lack of demand in the first place.
I know people here want an SMRPG remake/sequel but I'll be honest, this is one of the only places where I see such a sentiment. Most people outside of here don't really ask for a SMRPG remake, but rather a proper turn based Mario RPG title; sure an SMRPG remake would kill two birds with one stone, but in all honesty if Nintendo really wanted a turn based Mario title they could just create one by themselves (or force IntSys to make the next Paper Mario turn based); I don't really see either Nintendo or Square willing to collab on a game that neither will have full rights over, unless there is a huge long term pay-off to do such a thing. They're more likely to just work on platform exclusives (like Bravely Default 2).
Obviously it
could happen, but I doubt it currently.