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I suuuuuuuper doubt #7 (assumed to be Geno) will be available that soon, but I would kill for this in the next 2 weeks.I also believe it will be a double reveal for sure. Min Min “available later today” and Geno trailer “available July”
Likely would of been smarter of me to put this in with the other thing I said but, too late for that.The character announcements probably will be seperate...
-E3 wasn't cancelled until March 11th.
-Nintendo Direct was on March 26th.
-Sakurai has shown that Smash presentations are usually recorded at least a month out.
-Decent evidence that 6 was originally supposed to be released in April, meaning 6's presentation could have been put together as early as February or even late January.
So... What I think will happen is that we're going to get a "Sakurai Presents" presentation for 6 and we'll get one of the following outcomes:
-6 is revealed in the presentation and anyone else is revealed later.
-6 and any other characters are announced at different times. 6 gets their full presentation after all the other "E3" characters have been revealed, maybe even later in the month, the opposite of Byleth.
-There's a Smash Direct but it predominantly focuses on just character announcements.
While typing this, I realized it's probably the second for a simple reason... We've never had an Amiibo dump the same week as a character release:
Plant- Release: Feb 1st. Amiibo wave: Feb 15th
Joker- Release: April 17th. Amiibo wave: April 12th.
Hero- Release: July 30th. Amiibo wave: July 19th (Japan), 26th (Za Warudo)
Banjo- Release: Sept 3rd. Amiibo wave: Sept 20th.
Terry- Release: Nov 6th. Amiibo wave: Nov 6th (Japan), 15th (Za Warudo)
Byleth- Release: Jan 28th. Amiibo wave: Jan 17th.
6- Amiibo wave: June 12th.
Notice anything? Except for the Japanese Amiibo dump with Terry, Amiibo dumps never happen the same week as releases. Looking at this, we actually can make an educated guess that 6 likely WON'T be released during "E3" week... Most realistically, 6 would be released the week of June 22nd. So, what could this mean?
-6 is revealed during E3 week but the "Sakurai presents" presentation is the week of its release, just like everyone else but Byleth.
-6's "Sakurai presents" presentation is during E3 week but, like Byleth, actually doesn't come out until the week of the 22nd.
Either way, 6 is likely not to come out during E3 week but will definitely be announced, either as a presentation or stand alone announcement, only to be released the next week or two weeks later based on past precedent.
He was working on balancing the ARMS character but there's pretty good chance that enough was already done to at least show it off to some degree, just like Hero and Banjo at E3 last year or even just the trailer like Joker at the 2018 VGAs. That said, 6 could have been shown off in March at least to some degree but they opted out of it, probably because they didn't know how much Covid-19 was going to affect their workflow.I really doubt the presentation was recorded this early on. Sakurai was still hard at work according to his tweet about the ARMS rep and he ever said back in January that 6 wasn't ready to be revealed yet.
I believe the presentation was either between the times of Mid April - Early May, and due to this Sakurai Presents basically being their "E3", 7's trailer, which was likely made before hand, is likely ready to be shown too, with no gameplay.
Even then, Covid-19 didn't delay anything regarding the DLC. Sakurai made it clear in the Famitsu column it was issues with the ARMS fighter being fixed that caused it, and the team is working even better now than they were beforeHe was working on balancing the ARMS character but there's pretty good chance that enough was already done to at least show it off to some degree, just like Hero and Banjo at E3 last year or even just the trailer like Joker at the 2018 VGAs. That said, 6 could have been shown off in March at least to some degree but they opted out of it, probably because they didn't know how much Covid-19 was going to affect their workflow.
But that's what I'm saying. ARMS was already delayed for balancing issues before E3 was cancelled but they opted to delay its announcement too despite, as Joker and Mewtwo have shown, DLC can be announced fairly far in advance even if they're not ready to be shown yet. Terry was basically the same way and didn't get extensive gameplay footage until his actual presentation. This said, ARMS could have been shown in March but they opted out of it for some reason.Even then, Covid-19 didn't delay anything regarding the DLC. Sakurai made it clear in the Famitsu column it was issues with the ARMS fighter being fixed that caused it, and the team is working even better now than they were before
-For Spring-Man, I think the main thing people are going to be disappointed about is "why didn't they just reveal him sooner, rather then tease us". But I don't see people fuming over him, and any hate he would get would be minor that'd go away after a few days. There's a lot of people that do want him in, and aside from Min-Min he is still seen as a pretty likely character. To a lot of people Spring-man should be the first rep solely because he is the "face" of ARMS, and was universally considered the most likely character in the base game.Just Spring Man, the most "duh"/obvious choice would be a big let down for many, and the best thing he provides is "oh, promotions" not "oh yay Spring Man". They could also pull a complete Nintendo move and not go with a Spirit, which would be the worst case scenario, yes including Max Brass.
Of course they have fans, every character is *somebody's* favorite (have you seen Pokemon polls?), but you're trying to make the most amount of people happy. The general consensus is Byleth was a massive disappointment, but you saw people spamming "GARDENING TOOLS MAD, GARDENING TOOLS MAD!" (Smashboards, can you just allow "cursing" already?) throughout Twitter for a few days. Any of those 3 characters would still be a big disappointment to most. *SPRING MAN* would still be quite a disappointing pick, mostly because it's been forever now and that's such an obvious thing to do. If it was gonna be SM, just ****ing say so when you first reveal it. Oh and the ARMS community doesn't matter as much as the Smash community when we're about talking Smash here, not ARMS. Regardless, you should still go with a most popular pick, not a lesser-popular pick.
I'd say virtually any non-Spirit/Spring Man (only because of this bullcrap wait) would be a big disappointment to most. Yes, Helix and Dr. Coyle are definitely favorites of many, as is Lola Pop, but again, you're not trying to make ARMS fans happy, you're trying to make Smash fans happy, and especially those that are fans of both. At this point, the only way to spin Spring Man would be adding Ribbon Girl as an echo/alt, or having multiple alts alongside him. It's the same effect as having an over 2-month long "WHO'S THAT POKEMON!?!?!?!" when it's so obvious because it's a super-obvious Spring Man-shaped silhouette, when it should have been revealed in minutes, not months. Honestly, there's no real reason not to go with the most popular picks, or a mascot if you don't sit there on the reveal for months.
The reason why I doubt Spring Man and Ribbon girl as opposed to the 3 Spirits is because of the new assets/modeling that had to be done for the Mii Costumes and the AT especially. If those weren't in the base game, I'd be a lot more optimistic. It's also why I'm optimistic for Geno since that and his Mii Costume failed to returnOn the topic of this ARMS rep, and with June steadily approaching, I kinda want to address something I hear thrown around that I don't quite understand. Its the fact that most people don't think Spring Man will be the ARMS rep, that he would be too obvious and that Nintendo wouldn't pull a guess who on us all for the most iconic character to join. I, on the other hand, think Spring Man will be the ARMS rep and I don't think he would be that obvious. Hear me out.
Throughout the entirety of Ultimate speculation, and past Smash games post Melee, people were of the belief that assist trophies were ineligible to be upgraded to playable in the same game. If someone were to even SUGGEST the possibility of this happening, they would have been memed and laughed at to death. In Ultimate's case, tons of people are of the opinion that Spirits are ineligible to be upgraded and that it will never happen. From Nintendo's mindset, I believe they would think an upgraded assist trophy\Spirit would be groundbreaking and possibly even emblematic of Fighters Pass 2. Spring Man would also be the ARMS rep to break the most rules, and knowing Nintendo's track record on breaking fan-rules, it really isn't that far-fetched to assume that Spring Man would be off of our radar, and would be evidence that any video game character, even one that is already represented in the game, can still be a real possibility and I am of the belief Spring Man will be chosen, and maybe even Ribbon Girl, Ninjara and Min Min as a conglomerate character. I just never understand why people say SM would be obvious, because I really don't think that is the case.
if it is spring man I feel like they would still have to address the whole assist trophy issue. They could just turn him off while the character is in play. However I think a better option would be is to switch out the character with another arms rep depending on which rep is out on the field.On the topic of this ARMS rep, and with June steadily approaching, I kinda want to address something I hear thrown around that I don't quite understand. Its the fact that most people don't think Spring Man will be the ARMS rep, that he would be too obvious and that Nintendo wouldn't pull a guess who on us all for the most iconic character to join. I, on the other hand, think Spring Man will be the ARMS rep and I don't think he would be that obvious. Hear me out.
Throughout the entirety of Ultimate speculation, and past Smash games post Melee, people were of the belief that assist trophies were ineligible to be upgraded to playable in the same game. If someone were to even SUGGEST the possibility of this happening, they would have been memed and laughed at to death. In Ultimate's case, tons of people are of the opinion that Spirits are ineligible to be upgraded and that it will never happen. From Nintendo's mindset, I believe they would think an upgraded assist trophy\Spirit would be groundbreaking and possibly even emblematic of Fighters Pass 2. Spring Man would also be the ARMS rep to break the most rules, and knowing Nintendo's track record on breaking fan-rules, it really isn't that far-fetched to assume that Spring Man would be off of our radar, and would be evidence that any video game character, even one that is already represented in the game, can still be a real possibility and I am of the belief Spring Man will be chosen, and maybe even Ribbon Girl, Ninjara and Min Min as a conglomerate character. I just never understand why people say SM would be obvious, because I really don't think that is the case.
#6 definitely did, given the half-reveal and them explicitly saying "we'll need to extend our development time" in the mini direct. That reeks of "delay". I really don't think it's because of Corona, but there was a delay *somewhere* along the line that mostly seems to have affected... huh, Terry, Byleth, and #6, the three characters that are in a batch. Funny how that works. Terry had almost no footage to be shown, Byleth felt late as hell to everyone, and the ARMS rep has obviously been delayed.It was never officially confirmed that anything smash related was delayed as far as I know. I've read all the Sakurai columns, and he never mentioned anything of the sort. This seems like misinformation to me, though I could be wrong.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't going to be extreme Byleth-levels of hate, it's just going to be anger towards the BS "LUL WHO IS IT?! C:" and it being the super obvious pick, but there will still be disappointment with SM over say, RG (the arguably more popular of the two mascots) or MM (the most popular character). I don't think TT has a chance, but honestly, she's more popular than Toothpaste Head. Ninjaboi is too.-For Spring-Man, I think the main thing people are going to be disappointed about is "why didn't they just reveal him sooner, rather then tease us". But I don't see people fuming over him, and any hate he would get would be minor that'd go away after a few days. There's a lot of people that do want him in, and aside from Min-Min he is still seen as a pretty likely character. To a lot of people Spring-man should be the first rep solely because he is the "face" of ARMS, and was universally considered the most likely character in the base game.
I never said it was "insignificant", I was saying "they should pick a character that makes the most people happy", and those 3 characters would NOT make the most people happy. The only times you don't go with the most popular pick is if you have to go with someone else because:-I'm not denying that every character is someone's favorite. But I am saying that there is more than a insignificant amount of support for characters that are not spirits, such as obviously Max Brass/Helix/Dr. Coyle.
So, crazy idea, going with their top favorite would make a lot of sense, yeah? Min-Min, Ninjara, and Twitnelle are all extremely popular, the most popular, and oh look at that, they were also picked to be spirits for that very reason. Also the mascots, and while RG is quite popular, Spring Man is... uh... y'know, a mascot.-The ARMS community definitely matters a lot
Okay, fair, but my post above still stands. Picking Dr. Coyle, Helix, or Max Brass would not be looking out for the *most* people in the ARMS community.-If the goal was to please the Smash community, why would they even choose ARMS in the first place? It wasn't highly requested, or anything. In fact you'd notice that most of the DLC in the first fighter pass were characters that weren't universally wanted by the community.
Yeah it wouldn't be Byleth-levels of bad, but still... it would be the coolest if they went with a Hero-esque amalgamation character instead. Even if they couldn't put the character-specific abilities in (due to balancing reasons or they just couldn't for the sake of the amalgamation character) or they gave the amalgamation some of everyone's, I think that would still be the best fit. Also just as an inb4 "THAT WOULDN'T BE ACCURATE REE", do keep in mind that there are characters in Smash that aren't a fully accurate representation of themselves; I've brought up Simon using moves that he never had prior to Smash just because Richter is his echo (slide and uppercut for example). Ridley and Kirby can't perma-fly (for balancing reasons obviously, but still, it's inaccurate), Adult Link having a Boomerang in multiple Smash titles (he was based on OoT Adult Link who explicitly did not have access to Young Link's Boomerang), and Byleth actually has voice lines! So to anyone saying "REE they can't give non-Ribbon Girl ARMS characters extra jumps or non-Spring Man the comeback buff at low HP/high damage%!", I say **** you and look at other characters (not saying you, Droodle, were saying that, but I have had this conversation multiple times on here before).I doubt Springman would cause a huge fit in the community (at most some minor disappointment), but that said I can also see no Springman causing minor disappointment too. A non-spirit character getting in would definitely cause a bigger uproar, primarily due to the fan bases of spirited/AT characters; but NEITHER would get nearly as bad as the likes of Byleth getting confirmed.
This would be a catastrophically terrible outcome for at least 2 reasons:on the topic of arms...watch the arms rep be something none of us ever predicted. Like the mummy character, so we'd have a super heavy with insane range moves(none of the super heavies, not even ganon or DDD have what I'd really consider huge range, not when the likes of the belmonts, or byleth exist), or the....weird green glob.
...yeah you can tell I've never played arms and don't know anything about the game.
I just wanna piggy back off this statement cause I’ve been thinking about it literally since the announcement.Don't get me wrong, this isn't going to be extreme Byleth-levels of hate, it's just going to be anger towards the BS "LUL WHO IS IT?! C:" and it being the super obvious pick
I disagree with this "hard" confirm. If anything, that's a soft deconfirm. Calling that a hard confirm is like saying the copyright takedowns or Geno's costume missing as a hard confirm he's coming, or a hard confirm Tracer's coming because Overwatch Switch case.1) By choosing someone obscure like Master Mummy or Helix (the green glob guy), it would prove that AT's and Spirits hard deconfirm which would utterly kill Geno's chances
/sigh I really pray it's not.I just wanna piggy back off this statement cause I’ve been thinking about it literally since the announcement.
“Would Nintendo really play up the mystery and then have it just be Springman?”
And my conclusion is
Abso-****ing-lutely yes
Geno's chances getting killed off would not be fun, with him being my most wanted and all. It would also kill characters like Rayman, BWD, and Shantae's chances, which would cut skin deep.This would be a catastrophically terrible outcome for at least 2 reasons:
1) By choosing someone obscure like Master Mummy or Helix (the green glob guy), it would prove that AT's and Spirits hard deconfirm which would utterly kill Geno's chances
2) By circumventing literally ALL of the fan favorites like Min Min, Ninjara, Ribbon Girl and even Springman, it would be pretty much the same as Nintendo flipping off the general fanbase and proving themselves insanely tone deaf.
I don't think that is much of an issue since I personally feel their are ton of workarounds to upgrading assist trophies. They could simply disable it if they wanted to when Spring Man is active.The reason why I doubt Spring Man and Ribbon girl as opposed to the 3 Spirits is because of the new assets/modeling that had to be done for the Mii Costumes and the AT especially. If those weren't in the base game, I'd be a lot more optimistic. It's also why I'm optimistic for Geno since that and his Mii Costume failed to return
I'm sure they have ideas. If I were to make a guess on how they will handle it, I think its most likely they will have a replacement for the Spring Man assist trophy that mechanically functions the same. Spring Man already has a clone in ARMS and unless they wanted Springtron to be an alt of him, I can totally see that being his replacement. Either that, or they could disable it like I've just mentioned. Either way, theirs plenty of workarounds and I'm sure Sakurai and his team can be able to pull it offif it is spring man I feel like they would still have to address the whole assist trophy issue. They could just turn him off while the character is in play. However I think a better option would be is to switch out the character with another arms rep depending on which rep is out on the field.
Regardless I’m curious as how they will handle it
ehhhhh... personally I would prefer if they just got rid of the AT altogether. Either that or replace it with Springtron. Having a character as both playable and an assist just rubs me the wrong way.I don't think that is much of an issue since I personally feel their are ton of workarounds to upgrading assist trophies. They could simply disable it if they wanted to when Spring Man is active.
Yeah I agree. I don't think they will outright remove the assist trophy, but I do at the very least see it get replaced by Springtron.ehhhhh... personally I would prefer if they just got rid of the AT altogether. Either that or replace it with Springtron. Having a character as both playable and an assist just rubs me the wrong way.
Balancing specifically was from Sakurai's Famitsu column IIRC. The delay was confirmed via the direct saying "we'll need to extend our development time".Where's this "evidence" that the Arms character was delayed due to balancing issues?
Oh yeah I completely forgot about that. I also remember how Chrom also appears in one of Robin's victory animations and how Mario appears in one of Piranha Plant's victory animations. I don't really think Nintendo cares about "weird paradoxes" as much as people think.I want you to keep in mind with this whole "What to do about Springman's AT" thing that this is the same game where Chrom is allowed to beat the **** out of himself in Robin's FS.
I don't want it to happen mind you, but I just get the feeling that would be a type of Nintendo move. Or even a sakurai one. After all, Helix is such a weird looking character that I almost feel like it'd be the type of thing sakurai would look at and go "hey, this guy was pretty weird, bet he'd be perfect in smash"This would be a catastrophically terrible outcome for at least 2 reasons:
1) By choosing someone obscure like Master Mummy or Helix (the green glob guy), it would prove that AT's and Spirits hard deconfirm which would utterly kill Geno's chances
2) By circumventing literally ALL of the fan favorites like Min Min, Ninjara, Ribbon Girl and even Springman, it would be pretty much the same as Nintendo flipping off the general fanbase and proving themselves insanely tone deaf.
Yeah, but most of this is coming from hindsight. For example, if we asked people who should be the ARMS rep before the rep was confirmed; I feel as though most people both inside the Smash community and the ARMS community would say Springman "because he's the franchise's mascot" and "it would be weird if it wasn't Springman", the other characters rose up after the ARMS was casually confirmed and people thought "it would be too obvious if it was Springman". On top of this, while ARMS (the game) itself has no official main character, the "main" mascot is still Spring-man. Heck, ARMS is getting a graphic novel which has been delayed to an unannounced date in which Springman is the main character, so he's more of a "main" character compared to any other ARMS character.I never said it was "insignificant", I was saying "they should pick a character that makes the most people happy", and those 3 characters would NOT make the most people happy. The only times you don't go with the most popular pick is if you have to go with someone else because:
- Gameplay reasons (e.g., if Dr. Coyle was the most popular and she couldn't be picked because of the whole floating thing couldn't be worked around).
- The "main character" isn't in yet (e.g., if Mario wasn't in before Waluigi) NOTE: This is a bit different for a game like ARMS that has no "main characters". Yes it has mascots, but in no way would this be like having Waluigi before Mario.
- Other reasons the character can't be put in (e.g., Mai).
And I'm not denying that, that's why most people default onto someone like Min-Min. However there seems to be a misconception among the community that Spring-man is unpopular and the ARMS fanbase doesn't want Spring-Man, when that's not really the case (although he is definitely not as popular as. There's still a lot of people that just want Spring-Man because he'd just be a good introduction to the ARMS feel. That said, there's still a reason why I say that Min-Min is among the most likely.So, crazy idea, going with their top favorite would make a lot of sense, yeah? Min-Min, Ninjara, and Twitnelle are all extremely popular, the most popular, and oh look at that, they were also picked to be spirits for that very reason. Also the mascots, and while RG is quite popular, Spring Man is... uh... y'know, a mascot.
Oh no, I definitely do not want amalgamated characters but I'm not annoyed enough to point it out why it wouldn't make sense every single time. I myself think it won't happen, but I get why others do.Even if they couldn't put the character-specific abilities in (due to balancing reasons or they just couldn't for the sake of the amalgamation character) or they gave the amalgamation some of everyone's, I think that would still be the best fit. Also just as an inb4 "THAT WOULDN'T BE ACCURATE REE", do keep in mind that there are characters in Smash that aren't a fully accurate representation of themselves; I've brought up Simon using moves that he never had prior to Smash just because Richter is his echo (slide and uppercut for example). Ridley and Kirby can't perma-fly (for balancing reasons obviously, but still, it's inaccurate), Adult Link having a Boomerang in multiple Smash titles (he was based on OoT Adult Link who explicitly did not have access to Young Link's Boomerang), and Byleth actually has voice lines! So to anyone saying "REE they can't give non-Ribbon Girl ARMS characters extra jumps or non-Spring Man the comeback buff at low HP/high damage%!", I say **** you and look at other characters (not saying you, Droodle, were saying that, but I have had this conversation multiple times on here before).
I think a common sentiment during FP 1 is "Would Nintendo really put in another Fire Emblem character in Smash".I just wanna piggy back off this statement cause I’ve been thinking about it literally since the announcement.
“Would Nintendo really play up the mystery and then have it just be Springman?”
And my conclusion is
Abso-****ing-lutely yes
Said final smash was leftover from Smash 4, the Springman AT was created specifically for Ultimate.I want you to keep in mind with this whole "What to do about Springman's AT" thing that this is the same game where Chrom is allowed to beat the **** out of himself in Robin's FS.
So what? That's missing the point. Hell, they changed a large portion of the Final Smashes, yet despite the fact that they decided to make Chrom a playable character they chose not to remove him from it because they just don't see it as that big of an issue. Even if they do, a bunch of assist trophies already get disabled on certain stages for various reasons, it is as simple as just not having the assist trophy appear when Spring Man is being played. IT IS ALREADY PROGRAMMED INTO THE GAME.Said final smash was leftover from Smash 4, the Springman AT was created specifically for Ultimate.
It's just a point used to stagnate discussion and discredit supporters of characters they don't like. That's all it's ever been. People aren't stupid, if they really think about it, it doesn't really make any sense for characters not to be canidates for Nintendo to choose as DLC just because they already show up in the game in a non-playable form. But does that help their argument? Of course not, so they stick to their guns even in the face of something like a potential ARMS rep because they've already spent the last year and a half replying "Spirits deconfirm lol" in every thread they see so they feel like they have to commit to it, otherwise they were *GASP* wrong about something smash related (THE HORROR!).They can add literally whatever the hell they want, it's premium content.
Spirits, assists, costumes, whatever mean nothing for their decision process.
I don't understand why that's not an obvious thing.
Even GameXplain covered this in November. The game has several examples of when specific ATs can't be summoned.The Moon AT is turned off if you fight on Termina. So, using SpringMan as playable and ATs on would just mean his AT form is turned off.
Lots of goodies in November, eh Luigi?Even GameXplain covered this in November. The game has several examples of when specific ATs can't be summoned.
-Knuckles won't appear on Green Hill Zone.
-Alucard won't appear on Wii Fit Studio because of the mirrors.
It's a specific feature built into the game. They were probably entertaining the idea of promoting an AT as soon as they started working on DLC.