Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Vector Victor]

Wasn't Joker's showcase shadow dropped?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Wasn't Joker's showcase shadow dropped?

Joker + stage builder, yes.

 

[Polarthief]

Joker being announced at VGAs with no warning (shadowdropped) was pretty awesome though. "They'll never see it coming" indeed.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Wasn't Joker's showcase shadow dropped?

In a way. We knew Joker was going to be released in April and that was about it. ARMS could technically go the same way but I feel like they would do this if it was JUST 6.

 

[MattX20]

I have a hard time believing we're only getting 6 revealed next month. Nintendo is more than likely aware of the fact ARMS isn't going to sell the pass on its own, 7 and or 8 have to bring home the bacon

 

[Polarthief]

I have a hard time believing we're only getting 6 revealed next month. Nintendo is more than likely aware of the fact ARMS isn't going to sell the pass on its own, 7 and or 8 have to bring home the bacon

I mean, Nintendo has been very Nintendo-y, but yeah I have a hard time believing this as well, a very, very hard time. Honestly, I see ARMS+2 being more likely than ARMS+1 at this point, but to think ARMS+0 just seems like madness after all we've been put through.

 

[Enigma735]

I still stand by the fact that we are getting both this ARMS rep and CP7 shown off. Even if they just do a showcase video like Joker, I don't see why Nintendo couldn't just add in the trailer after the Version 8.0 update as the "one more thing", or they could announce in that very video the exact day when CP7 will get revealed, and have it be like a week from then. Their are so much possibilities with how this will go down and with COVID, I do expect announcements to get shadowdropped.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I have a hard time believing we're only getting 6 revealed next month. Nintendo is more than likely aware of the fact ARMS isn't going to sell the pass on its own, 7 and or 8 have to bring home the bacon

It's unprecedented but they could do separate days. The could do the 6 presentation one day and then 7 or even 8 later in the week or even later that day. It's going to be interesting how they handle things because the chances of it all being announced on June 9th is pretty low. We're likely getting a Pokemon presentation too so Nintendo may knock out somethings this week to clear things up.

 

[MattX20]

It's unprecedented but they could do separate days. The could do the 6 presentation one day and then 7 or even 8 later in the week or even later that day. It's going to be interesting how they handle things because the chances of it all being announced on June 9th is pretty low. We're likely getting a Pokemon presentation too so Nintendo may knock out somethings this week to clear things up.

While it's possible, I doubt the announcements will wait too long. The second fighter pass has been around for months now, and I don't think Nintendo and the 3rd parties involved with it can afford to wait too much longer before potentially losing money/interest

 

[GenoToto]

Hello, Geno Thread! Hope all is well.

I wanted to share something that came across my timeline on twitter today; If any of you remember the puzzle box that showcased a large portion of Mario RPG characters, including our favored puppet man, someone put the puzzle together and uploaded a high-res version of the picture!

https://twitter.com/takakanie/status/1266911673438199808

It's wild that we now have this in such crazy quality. Attached to the post as well if you don't feel like checking the tweet itself.

 

[Polarthief]

It's unprecedented but they could do separate days. The could do the 6 presentation one day and then 7 or even 8 later in the week or even later that day. It's going to be interesting how they handle things because the chances of it all being announced on June 9th is pretty low. We're likely getting a Pokemon presentation too so Nintendo may knock out somethings this week to clear things up.

Please no, PLEASE NO. That would really suck if it happened. Just get them all out at once pleeeeeease.

 

[Vector Victor]

It's unprecedented but they could do separate days. The could do the 6 presentation one day and then 7 or even 8 later in the week or even later that day. It's going to be interesting how they handle things because the chances of it all being announced on June 9th is pretty low. We're likely getting a Pokemon presentation too so Nintendo may knock out somethings this week to clear things up.

Calling it now: IF Geno is number 7, they will do the ARMS and 7 presentations on different days, and Geno's Mii costume will come back in the ARMS showcase. This will result in this thread and fans elsewhere dealing with an avalanche of 'I told you so' and 'Serves you right' until 7's reveal being Geno. Since 2020 has been the year of it being a COMPLETE **** to everything, I bet the presentations gap will be 2 weeks.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Please no, PLEASE NO. That would really suck if it happened. Just get them all out at once pleeeeeease.

I don't disagree but... there's actually kind of some precedent to Smash stuff being announced with a notable time gap or even completely separate:

2006: Brawl presentation was an after hours event.
2013: Wii Fit shown in a fakeout trailer after the Nintendo Direct.
2014: Pac-Man in an after hours showcase.
2015: Roy and Ryu were in a weekend presentation.
2019: Smash announcements at the beginning and end of a Direct.

...
...
...

****... they might actually do this if we get more than two characters... especially if 8 is a particularly notable third party character. We could get 6 alone and then 7/8 in a standalone trailer like 10 hours later or even on a different day...

 

[MattX20]

I reiterate my previous point. Nintendo can't afford to wait too much longer regarding the reveals of the characters, and 3rd party character reveals likely have a date locked down that Nintendo can't really afford to break.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I need to work out the details but I'm thinking about doing a maybe monthly art contest in here to mix things up with potantial prizes. I'm thinking Nintendo gift card things since I can send just a code. I never done something like this before so I'll have to look into it/

 

[Lord Woomy]

I reiterate my previous point. Nintendo can't afford to wait too much longer regarding the reveals of the characters, and 3rd party character reveals likely have a date locked down that Nintendo can't really afford to break.

You know, some people like to claim that there's nothing Nintendo can do to lower interest in Smash and FP2, but I honestly think they've taken that as a challenge.

 

[MattX20]

You know, some people like to claim that there's nothing Nintendo can do to lower interest in Smash and FP2, but I honestly think they've taken that as a challenge.

My point is Nintendo invested millions into a second fighter pass and negotiated for 3rd party characters which isn't cheap. They need to get them sold before the cards gather lots of dust

 

[Enigma735]

Hello, Geno Thread! Hope all is well.

I wanted to share something that came across my timeline on twitter today; If any of you remember the puzzle box that showcased a large portion of Mario RPG characters, including our favored puppet man, someone put the puzzle together and uploaded a high-res version of the picture!

https://twitter.com/takakanie/status/1266911673438199808

It's wild that we now have this in such crazy quality. Attached to the post as well if you don't feel like checking the tweet itself.

This was a joy to see. I never knew their was an official SMRPG puzzle out their. The game is 24 years old and I am still finding new things about it lol

 

[Oracle_Summon]

I need to work out the details but I'm thinking about doing a maybe monthly art contest in here to mix things up with potantial prizes. I'm thinking Nintendo gift card things since I can send just a code. I never done something like this before so I'll have to look into it/

You guys should do something akin to what the Golden Sun fans do and make up a weekly showcase of fanart and franchise concepts for Geno. Golden Sunday is what the Golden Sun fans use to increase awareness for the series.

What can the Geno fanbase due in regards to their Star Puppet?

 

[Polarthief]

My point is Nintendo invested millions into a second fighter pass and negotiated for 3rd party characters which isn't cheap. They need to get them sold before the cards gather lots of dust

They already have a layer of 4.5 months of dust without a single full reveal yet, so yeah, if they keep waiting, especially if the ARMS rep is a total dud/fails to impress, and then on top of that they don't reveal 7 (or 8), that's gonna affect sales. They need to rapid-fire these things ASAP.

 

[_Fun.Tendo_]

Would anyone be interested in a Geno art contest with prizes?

Perhaps...

 

[YsDisciple]

How I would love for Nintendo to go for broke and reveal the entirety of Vol. 2 like Capcom did for Street Fighter V for its third season. That trailer was mad hype. Imagine, rather than starting it off with the ARMS character, we see some of the original fighters battling each other, then they transition to fight with some of the fighters that joined the roster throughout the series (Melee, Brawl, Wii U/3DS, Ultimate), then they fight against the ones from the Fighters Pass, and lastly... we go into Vol. 2 with the ARMS rep. BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!!! *mic drop* the rest of the pass gets revealed (one at a time).

 

[Megadoomer]

How I would love for Nintendo to go for broke and reveal the entirety of Vol. 2 like Capcom did for Street Fighter V for its third season. That trailer was mad hype. Imagine, rather than starting it off with the ARMS character, we see some of the original fighters battling each other, then they transition to fight with some of the fighters that joined the roster throughout the series (Melee, Brawl, Wii U/3DS, Ultimate), then they fight against the ones from the Fighters Pass, and lastly... we go into Vol. 2 with the ARMS rep. BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!!! *mic drop* the rest of the pass gets revealed (one at a time).

That would be great, though my concern would be having some insanely awesome character getting revealed at the very end (let's say, for the purposes of this thread, that Geno's revealed to be FP11), and then having to wait at least a year and a half (maybe even two years) to actually get more information on them or play as them. (since we usually only get an in-depth presentation shortly before release)

Still, much like Everyone Is Here, it would be nice to not have to worry about whether or not a character's going to make it in.

 

[Droodle]

They already have a layer of 4.5 months of dust without a single full reveal yet, so yeah, if they keep waiting, especially if the ARMS rep is a total dud/fails to impress, and then on top of that they don't reveal 7 (or 8), that's gonna affect sales. They need to rapid-fire these things ASAP.

I dunno how the ARMS rep can be a complete dud, we've had 2 months to temper our expectations on who it could be and the general consensus is Min-Min and Springman. But even then, most genuine Min-min/Spring-man fans seem to be open about potentially getting other characters as well. Characters like Helix, Dr. Coyle, and Max Brass also have tons of fans and really aren't divisive within the ARMS community. TBF, most of the ARMS character fanbase seems really chill; and the only character I can see upsetting people is Misango, but the chances of him are practically zilch. So unless people view a dud as "not a promotion", the chances of us getting an ACTUAL dud is really low. And even then, us getting a promotion is pretty likely just not guaranteed.

Besides there's a variety of ways Nintendo could approach this that makes sense. They COULD give us the ARMS rep and shadowdrop them on the same day, but then show off character 7 a couple days later; that way whoever 7 is doesn't end up overshadowing the ARMS rep time to shine. This makes a good amount of sense from a promotional standpoint. Or they could drop 6 and reveal 7, within the same presentation. I'm guessing the original plan for them was to stream the original ARMS presentation with the rep reveal + shadowdrop a couple days before their actual E3 presentation, and then reveal character 7 at the E3 direct. Since it's been cancelled, they can edit the reveal into the ARMS presentation, shadowdrop a potential character trailer on twitter, or do something like "join us on June 17th at 7AM PST where we will stream the official trailer for the next Smash character".

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I dunno how the ARMS rep can be a complete dud, we've had 2 months to temper our expectations on who it could be and the general consensus is Min-Min and Springman. But even then, most genuine Min-min/Spring-man fans seem to be open about potentially getting other characters as well. Characters like Helix, Dr. Coyle, and Max Brass also have tons of fans and really aren't divisive within the ARMS community. TBF, most of the ARMS character fanbase seems really chill; and the only character I can see upsetting people is Misango, but the chances of him are practically zilch. So unless people view a dud as "not a promotion", the chances of us getting an ACTUAL dud is really low. And even then, us getting a promotion is pretty likely just not guaranteed.

Besides there's a variety of ways Nintendo could approach this that makes sense. They COULD give us the ARMS rep and shadowdrop them on the same day, but then show off character 7 a couple days later; that way whoever 7 is doesn't end up overshadowing the ARMS rep time to shine. This makes a good amount of sense from a promotional standpoint. Or they could drop 6 and reveal 7, within the same presentation. I'm guessing the original plan for them was to stream the original ARMS presentation with the rep reveal + shadowdrop a couple days before their actual E3 presentation, and then reveal character 7 at the E3 direct. Since it's been cancelled, they can edit the reveal into the ARMS presentation, shadowdrop a potential character trailer on twitter, or do something like "join us on June 17th at 7AM PST where we will stream the official trailer for the next Smash character".

Tbh I can see Robin/Lucina style reveals done without a direct now. I doubt we’ll even see a Smash direct per se

they could include any additional content in a pre announced presentation like with Joker and the stage builder

 

[Polarthief]

I dunno how the ARMS rep can be a complete dud, we've had 2 months to temper our expectations on who it could be and the general consensus is Min-Min and Springman.

Just Spring Man, the most "duh"/obvious choice would be a big let down for many, and the best thing he provides is "oh, promotions" not "oh yay Spring Man". They could also pull a complete Nintendo move and not go with a Spirit, which would be the worst case scenario, yes including Max Brass.

Characters like Helix, Dr. Coyle, and Max Brass also have tons of fans and really aren't divisive within the ARMS community.

Of course they have fans, every character is *somebody's* favorite (have you seen Pokemon polls?), but you're trying to make the most amount of people happy. The general consensus is Byleth was a massive disappointment, but you saw people spamming "GARDENING TOOLS MAD, GARDENING TOOLS MAD!" (Smashboards, can you just allow "cursing" already?) throughout Twitter for a few days. Any of those 3 characters would still be a big disappointment to most. *SPRING MAN* would still be quite a disappointing pick, mostly because it's been forever now and that's such an obvious thing to do. If it was gonna be SM, just ****ing say so when you first reveal it. Oh and the ARMS community doesn't matter as much as the Smash community when we're about talking Smash here, not ARMS. Regardless, you should still go with a most popular pick, not a lesser-popular pick.

and the only character I can see upsetting people is Misango

I'd say virtually any non-Spirit/Spring Man (only because of this bullcrap wait) would be a big disappointment to most. Yes, Helix and Dr. Coyle are definitely favorites of many, as is Lola Pop, but again, you're not trying to make ARMS fans happy, you're trying to make Smash fans happy, and especially those that are fans of both. At this point, the only way to spin Spring Man would be adding Ribbon Girl as an echo/alt, or having multiple alts alongside him. It's the same effect as having an over 2-month long "WHO'S THAT POKEMON!?!?!?!" when it's so obvious because it's a super-obvious Spring Man-shaped silhouette, when it should have been revealed in minutes, not months. Honestly, there's no real reason not to go with the most popular picks, or a mascot if you don't sit there on the reveal for months.

 

[Sigran101]

Watch as the FE remake rumors get confirmed and Lyn is revealed as character 7 to promote it.

 

[Megadoomer]

It's the same effect as having an over 2-month long "WHO'S THAT POKEMON!?!?!?!" when it's so obvious because it's a super-obvious Spring Man-shaped silhouette, when it should have been revealed in minutes, not months.

But what if it's actually a Jigglypuff, as seen from above? (I'm not sure what that would be in this metaphor - maybe Springtron, or Dr. Coyle standing on the ground with a different hairdo? My point is, that whole "Jigglypuff seen from above" thing was nonsense)

While Spring Man would be exciting for the potential that his inclusion brings (unless he's the only assist trophy promotion - if that turned out to be the case, people would be justifiably annoyed), I'd prefer most of the ARMS cast over him.

I'm hoping that it's a spirit promotion, at least (I haven't played enough of ARMS to have a significant preference between Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Min Min, and Twintelle - I'd be fine with any of them), for reasons that should be obvious. (half of the characters in the most wanted list in my signature are currently spirits, with Geno being among them)

 

[MrJudd]

I think we will get just one presentation because:
- Smash never gets presentations in two different days of the same month.
- As pointed out before, Smash grabs all of the spotlight when it appears. If Nintendo is shadowdropping trailers all over the month, why would you put something that would suck all of the attention from your other games? If you do this, you do it only once and you do it sometime where it will not be overshadow other things. Unless...
- They want to suck the attention from their competitors. We know there's the PS5 event happening next week and rumors will be swirling around all week and the focus will be on Sony. Why not use Smash's power to their advantage? Will they do it? I don't think they are interested in doing this, but it would be a good strategy in my eyes.

Also, the more I start looking at the data and information of DLC so far, I think I figured out a true estimate on:

• How much time the DLC takes
• When each pack began and when the polishing phase ended
• What is possibly the time in-between DLCs.

Spoiler: Behold... 1000% Tin-Foil Hat Shenanigans by MrJudd on a Table

I also have some extra data to put some references on releases, delays, and presentation recordings just to visualize.

I may go over the reasoning in a different post if needed, but in resume:

• This is about the start of bulk of development until the character is done and polished (after base concepts and before distribution, is what I think).
• Each Pack takes roughly about 30 weeks to be made. I didn't count holidays, but the amount compensates surprisingly well. Probably because it would be a good average for the team to know how
• Since they work on 3 characters at a time, the fastest possible delivery time (not related to when a character releases) one every 10 weeks. I used the way Sea of Thieves develops updates as a reference, but it shouldn't be too different, since it's a good agile development practice to deliver value as fast and as consistenly as possible. 30 weeks / 3 characters => 1 character every 10 weeks
• The anchors for these timeframes are:
  • Hero, which appeared in an launch update (between when the game gone gold in November and the release in December)
  • The time between Plant and Joker
  • Terry's development, which was the most solid timeframe out of them all
• Byleth probably wasn't delayed or swapped after June 6 (if that somehow happened)
• This takes into account that ARMS was delayed by 2 months and it would only delay it's group and not all of the Pass.
• Because of ARMS's delay, all characters became closer to each other, meaning that #6 and #7 would be done really close to each other. With this, #9 and #10 would also be close to one another in terms of completion.
• Pass 2 could end as soon as March and, if you were to extend this beyond Fighter Pass 2, you would get 3 Packs before December 2021.

Next presentation can debunk all of this, but I wanted to try and put more logic into this uncertainty about the development.

 

[Polarthief]

But what if it's actually a Jigglypuff, as seen from above? (I'm not sure what that would be in this metaphor - maybe Springtron, or Dr. Coyle standing on the ground with a different hairdo?)

Even as a kid I was like "Wow okay, that's such bogus". TBH though asking trainers to identify any ball-shaped Pokemon from a silhouette is really stupid. "Oh it's Pikachu/Clefairy/whatever Pokemon you can think of from the front, curled up, and tucking in its ears!". You get my point though.

While Spring Man would be exciting for the potential that his inclusion brings (unless he's the only assist trophy promotion - if that turned out to be the case, people would be justifiably annoyed), I'd prefer most of the ARMS cast over him.

Yeah but that's the problem: *he* isn't exciting, just what he brings to speculation is exciting: ATs (and Spirits/Costumes) most definitely don't deconfirm. It's why unless Nintendo wants to reeeeeeally Nintendo it up, it won't be lone Spring Man; I just don't see it happening. They would have said so right then and there and not made us wait, regardless of needing more time or not since they can just say the name with almost no gameplay (Terry says hi; didn't Joker do that too?).

I'm hoping that it's a spirit promotion, at least (I haven't played enough of ARMS to have a significant preference between Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Min Min, and Twintelle - I'd be fine with any of them), for reasons that should be obvious. (half of the characters in the most wanted list in my signature are currently spirits, with Geno being among them)

Yeah, while I'd greatly prefer RG or TT, I'll be fine with Min-Min as well (and I guess lone Ninjara but that would be weird) because she's a spirit and also not "lul Spring Man obvious pick we waited over 2 months for". RG isn't as obvious since she didn't even get an AT, and some people do think she's a "lesser" mascot than SM.

 

[MattX20]

I think we will get just one presentation because:
- Smash never gets presentations in two different days of the same month.
- As pointed out before, Smash grabs all of the spotlight when it appears. If Nintendo is shadowdropping trailers all over the month, why would you put something that would suck all of the attention from your other games? If you do this, you do it only once and you do it sometime where it will not be overshadow other things. Unless...
- They want to suck the attention from their competitors. We know there's the PS5 event happening next week and rumors will be swirling around all week and the focus will be on Sony. Why not use Smash's power to their advantage? Will they do it? I don't think they are interested in doing this, but it would be a good strategy in my eyes.

Also, the more I start looking at the data and information of DLC so far, I think I figured out a true estimate on:

• How much time the DLC takes
• When each pack began and when the polishing phase ended
• What is possibly the time in-between DLCs.

Spoiler: Behold... 1000% Tin-Foil Hat Shenanigans by MrJudd on a Table

View attachment 273369
I also have some extra data to put some references on releases, delays, and presentation recordings just to visualize.

I may go over the reasoning in a different post if needed, but in resume:

• This is about the start of bulk of development until the character is done and polished (after base concepts and before distribution, is what I think).
• Each Pack takes roughly about 30 weeks to be made. I didn't count holidays, but the amount compensates surprisingly well. Probably because it would be a good average for the team to know how
• Since they work on 3 characters at a time, the fastest possible delivery time (not related to when a character releases) one every 10 weeks. I used the way Sea of Thieves develops updates as a reference, but it shouldn't be too different, since it's a good agile development practice to deliver value as fast and as consistenly as possible. 30 weeks / 3 characters => 1 character every 10 weeks
• The anchors for these timeframes are:
  • Hero, which appeared in an launch update (between when the game gone gold in November and the release in December)
  • The time between Plant and Joker
  • Terry's development, which was the most solid timeframe out of them all
• Byleth probably wasn't delayed or swapped after June 6 (if that somehow happened)
• This takes into account that ARMS was delayed by 2 months and it would only delay it's group and not all of the Pass.
• Because of ARMS's delay, all characters became closer to each other, meaning that #6 and #7 would be done really close to each other. With this, #9 and #10 would also be close to one another in terms of completion.
• Pass 2 could end as soon as March and, if you were to extend this beyond Fighter Pass 2, you would get 3 Packs before December 2021.

Next presentation can debunk all of this, but I wanted to try and put more logic into this uncertainty about the development.

That does make sense. The timelines would line up for that

 

[TheCJBrine]

I get the feeling we’ll just receive another presentation by Sakurai, with another reveal or 2 included at the end. His presentations aren’t referred to as directs, his Banjo & Kazooie one even being taped onto the end of the September Direct before being uploaded separately. November 2018 was also said to be the “last” Smash Direct, Joker’s content video not being counted as one either.

Also, personally, I’d like Spring Man. iirc a bunch of other people like him, too. I don’t see “who is it?” decreasing his chances since they could’ve straight-up revealed the character no matter who it was. I believe it was simply a marketing tactic to grab interest and keep discussion/hype going a bit before releasing the full reveal for more hype, hoping that hype would attract people to ARMS itself with the trial. Spring Man was kept on the roster image, too.

 

[Vector Victor]

Watch as the FE remake rumors get confirmed and Lyn is revealed as character 7 to promote it.

Oooooo.....that's a big red button.

Nope, a sure-fire way to turn the majority of the Nintendo fanbase against a franchise. To go to FE, AGAIN, and be the 4th FE character behind a DLC wall, to be tied with the Mario series in reps. I'm sorry, but Nintendo doing that FE reeks of bias and arrogance.

I just.....no. Absolutely not. For Nintendo to do that means they are completely tone-deaf and will ***** out that series until everyone is sick of it. FE is done, FE needs to let other franchises actually get the spotlight.

 

[Springwood Slasher]

Oooooo.....that's a big red button.

Nope, a sure-fire way to turn the majority of the Nintendo fanbase against a franchise. To go to FE, AGAIN, and be the 4th FE character behind a DLC wall, to be tied with the Mario series in reps. I'm sorry, but Nintendo doing that FE reeks of bias and arrogance.

I just.....no. Absolutely not. For Nintendo to do that means they are completely tone-deaf and will ***** out that series until everyone is sick of it. FE is done, FE needs to let other franchises actually get the spotlight.

If that actually happened I think I would purposely NOT buy the pass out of spite. I would just buy any individual characters I was interested in (if there were any at all...)

 

[JarBear]

As much as I love Lynn ... no.

June is upon us Geno Bros. The ARMS rep will really set the tone.

I am really hoping Nintendo has listened.

 

[Fatmanonice]

The character announcements probably will be seperate...

-E3 wasn't cancelled until March 11th.

-Nintendo Direct was on March 26th.

-Sakurai has shown that Smash presentations are usually recorded at least a month out.

-Decent evidence that 6 was originally supposed to be released in April, meaning 6's presentation could have been put together as early as February or even late January.

So... What I think will happen is that we're going to get a "Sakurai Presents" presentation for 6 and we'll get one of the following outcomes:

-6 is revealed in the presentation and anyone else is revealed later.

-6 and any other characters are announced at different times. 6 gets their full presentation after all the other "E3" characters have been revealed, maybe even later in the month, the opposite of Byleth.

-There's a Smash Direct but it predominantly focuses on just character announcements.

While typing this, I realized it's probably the second for a simple reason... We've never had an Amiibo dump the same week as a character release:

Plant- Release: Feb 1st. Amiibo wave: Feb 15th

Joker- Release: April 17th. Amiibo wave: April 12th.

Hero- Release: July 30th. Amiibo wave: July 19th (Japan), 26th (Za Warudo)

Banjo- Release: Sept 3rd. Amiibo wave: Sept 20th.

Terry- Release: Nov 6th. Amiibo wave: Nov 6th (Japan), 15th (Za Warudo)

Byleth- Release: Jan 28th. Amiibo wave: Jan 17th.

6- Amiibo wave: June 12th.

Notice anything? Except for the Japanese Amiibo dump with Terry, Amiibo dumps never happen the same week as releases. Looking at this, we actually can make an educated guess that 6 likely WON'T be released during "E3" week... Most realistically, 6 would be released the week of June 22nd. So, what could this mean?

-6 is revealed during E3 week but the "Sakurai presents" presentation is the week of its release, just like everyone else but Byleth.

-6's "Sakurai presents" presentation is during E3 week but, like Byleth, actually doesn't come out until the week of the 22nd.

Either way, 6 is likely not to come out during E3 week but will definitely be announced, either as a presentation or stand alone announcement, only to be released the next week or two weeks later based on past precedent.

 

[MattX20]

The character announcements probably will be seperate...

-E3 wasn't cancelled until March 11th.

-Nintendo Direct was on March 26th.

-Sakurai has shown that Smash presentations are usually recorded at least a month out.

-Decent evidence that 6 was originally supposed to be released in April, meaning 6's presentation could have been put together as early as February or even late January.

So... What I think will happen is that we're going to get a "Sakurai Presents" presentation for 6 and we'll get one of the following outcomes:

-6 is revealed in the presentation and anyone else is revealed later.

-6 and any other characters are announced at different times. 6 gets their full presentation after all the other "E3" characters have been revealed, maybe even later in the month, the opposite of Byleth.

-There's a Smash Direct but it predominantly focuses on just character announcements.

While typing this, I realized it's probably the second for a simple reason... We've never had an Amiibo dump the same week as a character release:

Plant- Release: Feb 1st. Amiibo wave: Feb 15th

Joker- Release: April 17th. Amiibo wave: April 12th.

Hero- Release: July 30th. Amiibo wave: July 19th (Japan), 26th (Za Warudo)

Banjo- Release: Sept 3rd. Amiibo wave: Sept 20th.

Terry- Release: Nov 6th. Amiibo wave: Nov 6th (Japan), 15th (Za Warudo)

Byleth- Release: Jan 28th. Amiibo wave: Jan 17th.

6- Amiibo wave: June 12th.

Notice anything? Except for the Japanese Amiibo dump with Terry, Amiibo dumps never happen the same week as releases. Looking at this, we actually can make an educated guess that 6 likely WON'T be released during "E3" week... Most realistically, 6 would be released the week of June 22nd. So, what could this mean?

-6 is revealed during E3 week but the "Sakurai presents" presentation is the week of its release, just like everyone else but Byleth.

-6's "Sakurai presents" presentation is during E3 week but, like Byleth, actually doesn't come out until the week of the 22nd.

Either way, 6 is likely not to come out during E3 week but will definitely be announced, either as a presentation or stand alone announcement, only to be released the next week or two weeks later based on past precedent.

Again, it seems unlikely FP6 is the only reveal for June.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

The character announcements probably will be seperate...

-E3 wasn't cancelled until March 11th.

-Nintendo Direct was on March 26th.

-Sakurai has shown that Smash presentations are usually recorded at least a month out.

-Decent evidence that 6 was originally supposed to be released in April, meaning 6's presentation could have been put together as early as February or even late January.

So... What I think will happen is that we're going to get a "Sakurai Presents" presentation for 6 and we'll get one of the following outcomes:

-6 is revealed in the presentation and anyone else is revealed later.

-6 and any other characters are announced at different times. 6 gets their full presentation after all the other "E3" characters have been revealed, maybe even later in the month, the opposite of Byleth.

-There's a Smash Direct but it predominantly focuses on just character announcements.

While typing this, I realized it's probably the second for a simple reason... We've never had an Amiibo dump the same week as a character release:

Plant- Release: Feb 1st. Amiibo wave: Feb 15th

Joker- Release: April 17th. Amiibo wave: April 12th.

Hero- Release: July 30th. Amiibo wave: July 19th (Japan), 26th (Za Warudo)

Banjo- Release: Sept 3rd. Amiibo wave: Sept 20th.

Terry- Release: Nov 6th. Amiibo wave: Nov 6th (Japan), 15th (Za Warudo)

Byleth- Release: Jan 28th. Amiibo wave: Jan 17th.

6- Amiibo wave: June 12th.

Notice anything? Except for the Japanese Amiibo dump with Terry, Amiibo dumps never happen the same week as releases. Looking at this, we actually can make an educated guess that 6 likely WON'T be released during "E3" week... Most realistically, 6 would be released the week of June 22nd. So, what could this mean?

-6 is revealed during E3 week but the "Sakurai presents" presentation is the week of its release, just like everyone else but Byleth.

-6's "Sakurai presents" presentation is during E3 week but, like Byleth, actually doesn't come out until the week of the 22nd.

Either way, 6 is likely not to come out during E3 week but will definitely be announced, either as a presentation or stand alone announcement, only to be released the next week or two weeks later based on past precedent.

And so what do you think happens to the other DLCs? Do you still think it will be 7 and 8 or only 7? When do you think it will be announced?

 

[Paraspikey]

-Decent evidence that 6 was originally supposed to be released in April, meaning 6's presentation could have been put together as early as February or even late January.

I really doubt the presentation was recorded this early on. Sakurai was still hard at work according to his tweet about the ARMS rep and he even said back in January that 6 wasn't ready to be revealed yet.

I believe the presentation was either between the times of Mid April - Early May, and due to this Sakurai Presents basically being their "E3", 7's trailer, which was likely made before hand, is likely ready to be shown too, with no gameplay.

 

[Polarthief]

Idk if it'll be spread out or not across June, really hoping it's just a nice shotgun of info all in one day, but I flat out refuse to believe that we're only getting #6 revealed this month. Even if we only get the ARMS rep and then nothing til June 30th, I'll keep believing we'll get something. Nintendo surely wouldn't pull a REALLY STUPID Nintendo-esque move like that, would they?