June has approacheth! We could finally be getting some answers about what FP2 might hold and if it's going to be worth the wait and price tag soon.
This ARMS rep is so fascinating. Spring Man seems so obvious but is he? Nintendo/Sakurai have shown awareness of the Duck Hunt/Banjo meme, several characters including Waluigi and Geno's demand, the too many sword fighters meme, etc so I am convinced they are aware of AT/spirits disconfirm "rules". Sakurai almost always chooses the mascot/avatar/main character first and avoids choosing another character from a series but also has never promoted an AT (or spirit when it comes to Ultimate). Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are the mascots and are popular characters, but are they the obvious choices? I'm not so sure. Because of these "rules" that have piled up, the ARMS rep is groundbreaking no matter what. I can only think of two exceptions...
Max Brass, the champion in ARMS and the only character to really hold any sort of significance within the game as a result. He's not really a main character but he's not not a main character. He's not a spirit or AT or Mii costume or anything in Smash. He's not terribly popular at least not compared to some other characters from ARMS. So from the standpoint of main characters only he only meets that criteria by extension and by Smash's standards he meets all the criteria of the "rules", but he's such a lack luster pick.
OR ARMS 2 is a thing and an existing character (not a mascot or character that is a spirit) is to be the main character in this new game. Let's say it focuses heavily on Dr Coyle or something like that. In this instance they would now technically be considered a main character and would still not break any of the "rules". I've seen a lot of people talk about a new character for a hypothetical ARMS 2 but not an existing one that holds new prominence in a sequel. This seems like a stretch also, but both of the last two things are possible.
I bring these two points up because what follows are my thoughts regarding Ultimate and it's DLC and revised pass predictions and these two points fly directly in the face of my thoughts and I don't really have much of an answer for them. I say this because my criteria is simply "the impossible made possible" is basically the mantra for ultimate and it's DLC imo. Ridley? Too big. Impossible. KKR? Too irrelevant. Impossible. Hero? Copyright too complicated. Impossible. Joker? Basically a pipe dream that is associated with Sony. Impossible. Banjo? From a competitor AND too irrelevant. Impossible. Terry? Not on anyone's radar and requested but not heavily requested. Impossible. Isabelle? Possible but only as an echo. Bam she's a unique fighter. Chrom? Missed his chance, too many swordies and FE characters. Impossible. Byleth? Too many swordies, FE characters, and they would not repeat that same DLC mistake. Impossible. Everyone is here? Copyright way too complicated and no way they'd be able to get Cloud again. Impossible. Simon/Richter? They'd go with a different rep and they definitely would not have a third party echo fighter. Impossible. Ken? They wouldn't have another 3rd party echo fighter. Impossible.
I remember someone here commenting that Ultimate's roster looks a lot like one of those fanmade rosters that had a ridiculous amount of impossible characters on them and it really is like that. You could try to argue that some of these characters weren't really all that impossible and for maybe Terry I could see that or Isabelle. Even Incineroar seemed impossible in light of Decidueye being the runaway popular pick. The arguments I find the most laughable are regarding Banjo and how Nintendo and Microsoft are not really competitors. It's like saying Walmart and Target aren't competitors because they appeal to different customers within the markets they are trying to appeal to when they decide after years of clear competition to work on a product together that will appeal to their customers who overlap. That is literally like the definition of impossible especially with Nintendo broadening it's horizons and getting more mature and competitive games on the switch.
Looking at ARMS, who seems impossible? Spring Man because he's an assist trophy, spirit and Mii costume. A character who is neither considered one of the most popular (generally spirits) nor a mascot (basically anyone who isn't Max Brass or a spirit) because these characters still break a "rule" of mascots first. A character who is a main character in a hypothetical ARMS 2 but was not in ARMS because first of all ARMS 2 is not a confirmed or even rumored thing and it would be a pretty dramatic shift to have a character grow into a main character/mascot when they already have Spring Man and Ribbon Girl as mascots. Any characters who are spirits because they literally disconfirmed guys I mean c'mon
. Basically, any character from ARMS at all is somehow impossible for one reason or another.
What does this mean for Geno specifically? Well the only rep from ARMS I would see as really threatening Geno is Max Brass. Max Brass is arguably a main character in a way with the position and significance he holds in ARMS and is not a spirit, AT, Mii costume, etc. He's still a bit of a stretch to call a main character so I wouldn't call him a death sentence to Geno's chances but I do think he would be the character we would want to see the least. If it's SM then it shatters disconfirm fan rules and opens the door wide for Geno. If it's one of the spirit characters that couldn't possibly be better for Geno not only does that mean that popularity matters but that being a spirit doesn't and that being a main character doesn't (with the exception of RG who is still a good sign for Geno). Any non spirit character other than Max Brass might seem like a death sentence for Geno but think about this: If DLC and ultimate are about the impossible and the ARMS character shows that being a main character does not make a character impossible, then the following characters still make sense to prove that other factors don't make a character impossible (Geno for spirits, Isaac for ATs, Rex for Mii costumes, etc). This is why I feel that Geno's chances remain strong regardless of who the ARMS rep is and leads into my revised predictions:
1. ARMS: Spring Man and Ribbon Girl alt (maybe Springtron alt). I honestly think it is more likely that they will break the spirits/ATs fan rule than they would break the main characters/mascots first fan rule. Sakurai has made some exceptions but is pretty set on that and the team has made multiple exceptions to making characters despite having models for them already and therefore doing double work (not to mention Sm4sh was all about double work to begin with so that was actually quadruple work with trophies to characters for 2 games on 2 different system). I could see other characters or even Hero situation with alts but I am thinking it will just be Spring Man with a Ribbon Girl alt and that will be a big enough deal as is.
2. Crash: Crash would be huge as an E3 level reveal. I don't see Geno getting this spot because he's only big with the Smash audience while Crash appeals to a wider variety of players. Crash has been one of the names circling around a lot and his recent Renaissance and overall popularity make him seem possible but due to being associated with Sony and from a very greedy company he also seems impossible. And for a long time I don't think Crash was considered possible and I think that's why he has only recently gained a big fan following.
3. Geno: one of the big remaining pillars of Smash fandom who has been held off for so long for one reason or another and like other impossible characters is a copyright nightmare but unlike the others is partially owned by Nintendo. Geno has felt impossible forever and like Crash has only recently started feeling like he's actually possible at all. A lot of the circumstances surrounding Geno make me think he will be sooner than later but I don't see him as the big E3 reveal.
4. Rex: shows Mii costumes (dlc ones no less) don't disconfirm characters. Makes no sense to have ARMS and not Rex. Xenoblade has quite a large fan following and deserves another rep. Might seem too obvious tho after the ARMS rep to be deemed impossible but I still think this character will be in FP2. Makes more sense than a character like Waluigi who is the exact opposite of an impossible character.
5. Heihachi: could be Llyod but Llyod doesn't seem to bring the impossible aspect as much as Heihachi. I honestly feel that these big Tales announcements for the anniversary are totally unrelated to Smash. Heihachi was literally deemed impossible by Sakurai himself due to moveset complications, but Smash has come a long way and innovated many creative movesets since and now I feel that Sakurai would be ready to tackle another impossible request. Heihachi also has a fanbase but I'm not sure it's as impressive as Llyod's which also fits with how FP1 went.
6. Sora: a Disney rep definitely seems impossible. Plus another SE character would seem quite impossible with one being in FP1 and now 2 in FP2. Sora is another pillar of Smash fandom and in general is just the posterboy for impossible pipe dream fanpicks. People also say that third party company reps will cap off at 3.
Honorable mentions:
Dante: Dante is kind of impossible because people say they think third party reps will cap off at 3 and he's the bad boy from the mature games that have only recently come to Nintendo systems. The problem with Dante is that he does have a big fanbase and factors that make him seem very possible and in general Capcom has been very willing to play ball making characters from the company seem pretty likely so that's why he didn't make it on my list but I see him as a serious contender.
Master Chief: another pipe dream who is basically the face of Microsoft. People don't appreciate the kind of moveset he could bring and he has to compete with Doom Slayer who is also a very iconic character who is very similar to Chief who also is highly regarded by Sakurai and the FPS community. Master Chief seems so impossible that he is the perfect candidate for Ultimate dlc.
Isaac: shows ATs don't disconfirm and shows that being an active IP doesn't matter. Isaac is one of the most Impossible characters as a result of those 2 factors. Another Golden Sun rep could still break that second rule as well. Golden Sun had a big dedicated fanbase and has been requested in Smash for a long time.
Rayman: Rayman is one of those requested characters that doesn't have much popularity in some places in the world. Fatman had mentioned too that Nintendo doesn't really need to appeal to Ubisoft to keep them on board so a Ubisoft rep may not even be on Nintendo's radar. Rayman seems like such an obvious choice but he walks this weird line between possible and impossible.
This is the last predictions list I will make. I don't really believe that this is exactly how the pass will look I just think this is a very plausible outlook on ultimate and it's dlc as a whole and how that might impact the dlc picks moving forward.
