Well, this will be fun.
GW vs Ness: 70-30.
First off: I found it funny that people brought up Edreese. I JUST played him in an online crew battle for the SBR. GW vs Ness. 3 stock each. I 2 stocked him while taking 34%.
Disclamer: Online sucks and doesn't mean anything. It was just ironic.
Ness has the range advantage on the ground because of dash attack, up smash, and forward smash.
Right, even though Dash attack is the only move ness has that outranges GW's Dtilt. I don't know why you brought up the other ones. Not to mention that out of those Dash attack is the only move you are going to be using with momentum disreguarding stutter stepping. The GW player isn't just going to sit there and let you hit him. I'm going to go ahead and state right here that I'm going to base how good the GW is relative to myself. Which means the GW isn't going to be spacing things poorly and getting hit by one of those three moves due to a whiff. Not that any of these moves matter anyways. GW's aireals beat out all of these moves.
Third hit of dash attack is completely safe versus Game & Watch's down tilt and hits him.
You are disreguarding the fact that Dash attack is practically useless vs a good GW player. Dtilt has IASA frames and GW won't just be sitting there spamming it so you can dash attack him. That is the only way Ness would be able to dash attack GW anyways. GW won't dtilt ness unless he plans on hitting him. Even so, Ness would have to start his dash attack before GW dtilted to hit him. Otherwise GW has time to just shield due to the IASA frames on his Dtilt.
Not only that, but Ness's Dash Attack is useless against GW's shield. It is impossible to space his DA against GW's shield without being punished. If you hit with only the third hit, GW can SH fair out of shield and it's a free hit on Ness. If you don't space it like that, GW can grab or use any aireal OOS and punish. The only way Ness has to space against GW's shield without being punished is retreating fair. Because of this approach Ness is extremly easy. His best option is extremely telegraphed and can just be countered by RARing a bair. The only thing Ness's DA is useful for against GW is punishing whiffed smashes and dair's. It's great for that, but that is it.
Ness's forward air outranges Game & Watch's, but is marginally outranged by the turtle. It's very close though. Down air works as a good approach versus the turtle since it will hit Game & Watch out of it (sometimes trading hits) and Ness's double jump is better than Game & Watch's giving him some flexibility in spacing this.
Ness's fair is good, but it's not even a match for GW's aireals. Seriously now. GW's bair outranges this move, and nair will trade hits with it from the front and back. Fair is also the only aireal Ness can actually use against GW without being punished easily, so it becomes very telegraphed.
Dair to beat Turtle? Are you insane? It's impossible to hit GW with dair while he has his turtle out unless he has absolutly horrible spacing. Ness can NOT hit GW with dair from a SH. Bair will beat it. GW's Nair will also destroy Ness's dair and tack on a guarented 17% in the process, AND lead into either another nair/up-b or Uair. Nair actually beats all of Ness's aireals except his fair. They trade hits. You also seem to be disreguarding GW's up-b, which gives him a substaintial amount of invincibility frames and the ability to escape any follow-up ness could possible have. GW can tap DI and up-b out of PK fire before Ness can grab him. If GW ever feels threatened by PK Thunder he can just up-b away.
Ness has a great shield and can easily shield the whole turtle without being shield stabbed.
This is very true. It's also true that ness has 0 OOS options against GW's turtle, so he can just pull back and do it again. Or frame trap ness with Dtilts. Ness can't reach GW out of his shield before GW can react.
Ness's dash grab is fast and has good range, and all of Ness's throws (except down throw) are good against Game & Watch. As has been said back throw kills him at low percentages, but forward and up throw lead to good follow up as well.
First off, It's impossible for Ness to follow up GW from any throw due to GW's up-b.
Secondly, Ness may have strong throws, but GW is eaisly one of the hardest characters to grab in Brawl. It's one of the reasons he does so well against Ice Climbers. Ness has no grab set-up's on GW. PK fire I explained above. All GW has to do to avoid being grabbed by almost any character is carefully space Dtilt/Bair and know when to use Up-B. Ness's ability to kill GW from a throw is one of the only reasons he even has a chance in this match-up. Too bad GW has so many options to avoid grabs eh?
Game & Watch's aerials, aside from the key, are not well suited to attacking the head of pk thunder while avoiding the tail (which can't be attacked). So pk thunder is pretty good against him when he doesn't have the bucket to use. Smart use of pk thunder against Game & Watch's bucket usually causes him to absorb the tail, and absorbing the tail fills up the entire bucket with 1% tail hits, and the resultant Oil Panic will not kill until high percentages. Also, if Ness is close to Game & Watch when he absorbs the tail it's just as good as being hit by the tail and combos into pk thunder 2 which kills at extremely low percentages.
GW doesn't even need to use the bucket against Ness. If Ness ever PK thunders while GW is on the ground then GW can just approach Ness with shielddashes. If GW get's scared that he might get hit by PKT2 then he can just up-b. It's extremly simple and easy to avoid. You might be able to get GW players that are inexperienced in the match-up with some simple PKT tricks, but any experienced player will know what to look for. Also, I'm pretty sure PK thunder's tail can only fill up a max of 2 bucket slots in one shot. The bucket also has a tremendous range and will absorb the head even if it isn't close. I disgress though, GW has no need to use the bucket vs PK thunder or PK fire. GW can just Dtilt PK fire lol.
The turtle is high enough commitment that if Game & Watch retreats it or something like that, Ness can hit him with pk thunder before it finishes.
This is just False. That would only be true if GW started his bair after Ness PKT'ed and he was close to ness. Which doesn't make sense. You must be getting desperate...
Ness is exactly median weight, not light, so Game & Watch does not kill Ness "absurdly early". Down throw to down smash doesn't "set up for gimps" because it doesn't work; learn to tech.
Ok, Ness is not medium weight, because GW's dthrow to Dsmash doesn't even work on Med weight characters, yet it works on ness. He may be at the top of light...but he isn't very heavy. GW can kill ness in the 70's with Fsmash or Usmash and with sweetspotted Dsmash at 76% fresh.
Ok, let's assume you can tech GW's dthrow every time. Well, it doesn't do much for you. GW can techchase with fair before Ness is out of the teching animation. It's the only move GW can hit with before Ness is able to shield, but it will always be sweetspoted and has the perfect trajectory for edgeguarding. Not only that, GW can techchase Ness with fair ON REACTION. I don't have to guess. Ness's roll is pretty slow.
Game & Watch can edge guard Ness better than Ness can edge guard Game & Watch, but it's not a complete blow out over the edge. Ness's forward air outranges Game & Watch's, and most of the time he doesn't even need to use pk thunder 2 to recover; when he does, it's only bad if Game & Watch happens to already be near the side of the stage, otherwise you can do it such an angle that it isn't easily interrupted.
I'm sorry, but GW has an extreme advantage off the edge vs ness. Fair isn't a problem. GW can just bair to edgeguard. It works fine. Dtilt stops PKT2. So does fair. All I have to do is run off the edge and fair to interupt it. Or I could just edgehog and then uair Ness giving me a free move. Of course if Ness is in a good position to recover then he can get back pretty often, but if he can't reach the stage with his double jump then it's GG ness. GW simply just has too many options for Ness to recover reliably. In my combo video "Sugoi Syndrom" I have some good clips of me edgeguarding ness if you want an example.
Random fun fact:
GW can Dtilt Ness's pk fire then use bucket and it will be filled immediatly. Feel free to use this as easy damage. It kills at 65% and is easy to aquire.
Note: I play ness. In fact, I probably have the best ness in texas. I play him a lot and enjoy playing him. I'm not just pulling this information out of my ***.
Hopefully you can see my points and understand why this match-up is bad for ness. Maybe the GW's you play are just approaching the match-up wrong. Maybe you have never played a good GW. I don't know but I've set straight pretty much everything you've said and if you would like to know more feel free to ask about anything that I didn't cover.
-Hylian