I've only been playing Melee for about 10 months, and I'm already about as good as players like Hylian and Jesus Freak, who have been playing for several years. I would say that, for someone who has a slow learning curve, then it would definitely take them a long time. But I feel that people with at least average learning curves just need to play often. Playing every Friday with Xelic, FastLikeTree, Hylian and other Austin smashers is probably what made me as good as I am today, as I don't feel my learning curve is particularly fast. I think that it's really just a matter of how much you play and who you play with.
So far, it's Rayzorium, Hylian and I that are definitely going. I will probably not enter the Brawl tournament, but count me in for Melee. Austin RC might be there. I don't expect to be able to take my mother's van, so I'll take my car, which means I might not be able to bring more than Austin and Rayzorium, as I need room for my television and cube (which don't seem to fit in my trunk).
I'd bet money on Xelic not showing up. If there were any sort of Melee tournament guaranteed to be worthwhile, he might, but considering that Brawl essentially killed the Melee scene with its promises of glory to the n00bs, I doubt any Melee tournament with more than 12 people will happen.
But I'll be there. To most people, I guess that's a reason not to go, but at least we can Fox ditto and stuff.