I disagree with Pikachu, I think it's closer to 60:40. We're disadvantaged, but one grab from Falco puts Pikachu at 50%+. With that percent we're able to platform camp Pikachu enough to remove their chaingrab. And I personally think that without their chaingrab the matchup would be in OUR favour, however they do have it. I just think that we have the tools to avoid it, and then nullify it.
Once we have that 50% on them if they wait for the chaingrab they're just killing the timer.
Also, if we're able to get the first kill in this matchup. Suddenly Falco has an advantage, Pikachu can't simply wait for that grab, and Falco can play the game HE wants to. The cycle repeats with 1 grab on our side equating to the removal of theirs.
For the first 20% (maybe 21%?) or so, we can camp near an edge too, without the need for the platforms. With this in mind, if the Pikachu is doing what they usually do and merely ducking lasers, we have run off lasers to rack up damage. If they approach, our job of getting that grab to remove their chaingrab becomes a little easier.
Obviously the matchup isn't all about who gets the first grab though, once the grab game becomes less important, I do think Falco has the upperhand. We keep Pikachu out fairly well IMO. Jabs just feel like they Pikachu's bane, and I'm almost certain ftilt is fairly safe on shield here as well. Including Pikachu's slightly lower weight class kills will come a
little earlier than usual if the opportunity is there (BDacus anyone?)
Apart from that, I'm confident that our bair/nair/uair is superior to Pikachu's aerial game. Specifically in range and power, and the setups that come from airdodged uairs.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think the matchup is overrated.
Pikachu's the only one I disagree with here, and everything else is solid.