Then go on on it! I want to be educated, you fool!
Plus, I'm kinda in the mood for Level-5 talk, but nobody wants to talk about Yo-kai Watch...
Ok here it is.
Look back upon Smash 4 speculation and most of the commonly speculated third parties have one core thing in common. What do Shovel Knight, Layton, Shantae, and Rayman all have in common when we look at 2014-2015 speculation? They all have something strong to do with Nintendo history. And if you remove Snake from the equation due to how personal of a request he was, third party speculation makes sense. Sonic was Mario's rival. Even if he was not a Nintendo character per say, he was a huge part of Nintendo history still. Mega Man was seen by many as an honorable Nintendo character. Pac Man is where things get a bit iffy, but its Pac Man. One of the most iconic characters ever in gaming and his company was making Smash. With how small third parties were in Smash, it seemed like the direction third parties would likely have strong Nintendo ties.
Then DLC showed up. Ryu is the least damaging to this notion, since SF2 is a big game for the SNES and SF had a strong home on Nintendo systems. Keyword had. SF since then was much more at home on systems like the PS1, Dreamcast, and other modern systems compared to Nintendo. Yes, Ryu was the fighting game character. But the connection to Nintendo was sparse. Then the end of DLC shattered this idea of a strong Nintendo connection was essential. Bayonetta, while being adopted in sort by Nintendo, was a small franchise that really did not have this lasting Nintendo connection that people were searching for. At best she had the same amount of Nintendo loyalty as Rayman did prior to Legends going multiplat. But Cloud is the character that forever changed how Smash third party speculation went down.
Cloud's inclusion, in my opinion, is the greatest proof that the old school gatekeeping of "Nintendo All Stars" was dead. This is the biggest JRPG character ever...from the PS1. FF7 notably jumped ship from the N64 and there was bad blood for a little while between Nintendo and Square. Cloud was arguably the farthest you could get from a Nintendo All Star. Yes, Snake was in Brawl, but he was a personal favor to Kojima, you could handwave him away. Cloud you could not. This threw everything people knew about speculation and arguably the ballot into question. Instead of the popular ballot picks for third parties we got Cloud and Bayonetta?
Now, how does this affect Layton? Simple, his loyalty to Nintendo was one of his big selling points. At that point the Layton series had regular releases and was a super loyal stream of third party games for the DS and 3DS. At the time, Layton had a strong argument for his chances. And then...nothing. Now, going forward to Ultimate, we have the factor of the state of the layton games. Layton has been limited to one spinoff with his daughter and some ports to IOS of the DS games in recent years, a far cry from his old days. Part of his loss of support might just be because he was a casualty of not getting new stuff.
Now with Ultimate, the idea of a Nintendo connection being required for DLC is weakened to such a degree it is seen as a bonus rather than a requirement. In terms of third parties, only Simon and Banjo fit into this pre Cloud mindset of a Nintendo connection and being Nintendo all stars. Hero could be argued for this as well, since DQXI did come out on the 3DS, but even still it is arguable this is more due to how DQ is a cultural phenomenon in Japan rather than because DQ being on a Nintendo system. Sephiroth, Steve, Terry, and especially Joker though do show that overall, Smash is a game of gaming's greatest all stars, not just Nintendo's. While these characters are in the game as fighters, characters like Geno, Rayman, and Shantae that cling more to the older definition I outlined are spirits, and Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy.
Heck, if we want to take it further, look at speculation on third parties. The fact that Master Chief is entertained as a possibility shows how far Smash has strayed from the Nintendo All Stars gatekeeping of old. But even still, look who people consider as very likely third parties overall. Crash, Ryu Hayabusa, Dante (even if I find his chances overrated), Sol Badguy, etc. Really outside of Hayabusa, Rayman, and Phoenix Wright, most of the third parties that are very speculated do not fit the old idea of third parties from Sm4sh speculation.
So Layton, when his franchise is in stasis and in decline, is faced with so much more competition for oxygen in Speculation. People do not think of Layton as much nowadays because the door has been opened so wide that many other choices once seen as impossible just overshadow him. The one two punch of Smash speculation changing and his series being on the decline really did crush people's views on him. It is a shame since I would enjoy Layton personally, but at the same time I just do not see him as likely.
Oh and I might as well address Sceptile while I am at it from that first post. Uhh, ORAS and Greninja got people acting strange and Sceptile made sense at the time. Shill the latest pokemon game, it was coming out right around Sm4sh. New pokemon generations make older pokemon support groups go quiet. It is a shame, I was one of the big champions of Lycanroc Dusk. Watch I am proven wrong and we get Decidueye to shill Legends.