Yeah but spirits and costumes take much less effort than assist trophies. The only spirit upgrades we’ve had are from 2/3 games whose release timings made them miss their original window for Smash (the third being pokemon).
Right, but the situation hasn’t changed for any of these characters that would make me think they’re being reconsidered in the 2 years since dlc was announced. I find lots of those arguing in favor of these character’s chances look hard to find reasons why Nintendo would change their mind without considering all the factors holding them back.
I mean
-Not every character was gonna be in the Base Roster. Base Roster had an Anemic amount of Newcomers, including Echo fighters.
-Not every character was gonna be in FP1 either. Sephiroth as an example wasn't added to the game till FP2. I don't think you would say Sephiroth has no reason to be chosen, yet he had to wait that long to be in the game, and was Added after Dragon Quest
Even if you want to go with the Speculation that Sephiroth (and Steve) were always gonna be Extra DLC after FP1, IF DLC wasn't added, they wouldn't be in.
-I Know you said the Waluigi backlash was overhyped. It may be true, but what's also true is that Reggie himself did say he was gonna talk to Sakurai about the support for Waluigi, and it's up to Sakurai on what to do from there. at the very least, we know Waluigi was heavily Reconsidered in his role
This also goes for Bomberman, as he was added as a Premium Deluxe Mii Costume after he was added to Base game as Assist. We also saw that other Assists like Isaac, Skull Kid, and Shadow had some backlash to them as well. Assists like Waluigi, Isaac, Skull Kid, Shadow, Ashley, etc had their biggest popularity during Ultimate Speculation
so in those aspect, their situation did change from back when the Base roster was chosen in 2015.
-What factors are holding these characters back is the question? You could say other characters that are possible, but that goes for Every character, including ones that are seen as most likely like Crash, Dante, Ryu, etc.
I could understand Certain popular Assists like Isaac, since Golden sun is still currently out of commission. even Skull Kid to an extent since he's not associated heavily with BOTW saga of Zelda games (he did get his own DLC Expansion in Candance of Hyrule though)
With Assists like Waluigi, Shadow, and Even Shovel Knight, there's not much in the way of these characters. They got the popularity, Relevancy, requests, Ease of access (in terms of rights and stuff), Potential moveset, and you can even argue Iconic status as well
As someone that's argued for Shadow being playable, the only reasons people give me regarding why Shadow is unlikely, besides the Assist trophy point, is that they would choose Other Sonic characters, and that he's only Echo material. The latter is Objectively False, and the Former is up to subjectivity, but Shadow does have good reason to be chosen over characters like Tails and Eggman.
If anything, people don't give me that many good reasons why Shadow is so unlikely, and why Nintendo wouldn't choose him. That's not to say that Shadow will be chosen, or that he doesn't have flaws. Like I said, there are other possible characters in the mix, but I don't see what Factors, besides their being other characters, are holding these assists back