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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Shroob

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This "Rivalry" debate is silly.


Rivalries are built by corporate executives as a marketing stunt, nothing more. Sonic could have gone his whole existence without being considered Mario's "Rival", but Sega HARD pushed him to be one, and it worked.

Same goes with Crash. The fact that people still remembers these kinda things goes to show that even though it was nothing but corporate execs playing promotional stunts, it stuck around.


"Rivalries" are just marketing, nothing more. If it fails, then it gets forgotten. If it works? Then we're talking about it on Smashboards dot com nearly thirty years later.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Honestly AT to Mii costume should have happened a lot by now. Shovel Knight, Alucard, Gray Fox, Rodin, Ghirahim, etc.

Proportions for many of them wouldn't be ideal, but they'd be something.
I would be so happy with a Yuri Kozukata Brawler costume
 

Ivander

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Trust me, there are a whole bunch of characters that look like shoe-ins for Mii costumes. Not just Assist Trophies like Shovel Knight, but like, no Wonder-Red Brawler costume? Also, the Federation Mech from Metroid Federation Force and the Fighters from Kid Icarus Uprising.

On the subject of Mii Fighters, there are still those times when I wish there were more custom specials and how much I dislike Mii Swordfighter's Forward-Air attack. But that aside, wishful thinking, more Custom specials based on other character's specials or from other games. Like if Arthur's Mii Costume came with a Lance or Flame custom move.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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This "Rivalry" debate is silly.


Rivalries are built by corporate executives as a marketing stunt, nothing more. Sonic could have gone his whole existence without being considered Mario's "Rival", but Sega HARD pushed him to be one, and it worked.

Same goes with Crash. The fact that people still remembers these kinda things goes to show that even though it was nothing but corporate execs playing promotional stunts, it stuck around.


"Rivalries" are just marketing, nothing more. If it fails, then it gets forgotten. If it works? Then we're talking about it on Smashboards dot com nearly thirty years later.
The best marketing is the kind that makes you feel how it wants, even when you know it's happening.

Example: Clones got renamed to Echos and denied their own numbers. In practical terms, nothing changed but now they're their own official category people aren't as mad over Daisy and Richter being model and taunt swaps as they were over Dark Pit having two moves different.
 

Pillow

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Trust me, there are a whole bunch of characters that look like shoe-ins for Mii costumes. Not just Assist Trophies like Shovel Knight, but like, no Wonder-Red Brawler costume? Also, the Federation Mech from Metroid Federation Force and the Fighters from Kid Icarus Uprising.

On the subject of Mii Fighters, there are still those times when I wish there were more custom specials and how much I dislike Mii Swordfighter's Forward-Air attack. But that aside, wishful thinking, more Custom specials based on other character's specials or from other games. Like if Arthur's Mii Costume came with a Lance or Flame custom move.
Not sure if they'd be allowed for competition still, but I'd even like variation on normal attacks and not just specials.
 

SpecterFlower

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I was never a Crash fan. I thought his games were uninspired even back when I was a kid during the Console Wars. Spyro was always more my jam, and if we're talking about characters/games that really gave Nintendo something to sweat about during that time, it was Cloud/FF7, not Crash.

All that being said, I would be 100% down for Crash getting in. If for no other reason than the fact that images like this were everywhere during my childhood and nostalgia is a helluva drug.

View attachment 307377

Is it weird that I want a character in not because I like them, but strictly because I'm nostalgic for old gaming magazines and said character feels like the last piece to that puzzle?

Yes.

Yes it is.

No regerts.
gameplay wise i really didn't like crash,

I really enjoyed spyro's gameplay but the reignited trilogy makes my muscles tense up from all the moving part's so i can't really play his games.

at the time square and enix combined actually rivaled Nintendo especially in Japan, almost everything they made became million sellers there, they were the main deciding factor on how PS got it's lead.
 

Ivander

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Not sure if they'd be allowed for competition still, but I'd even like variation on normal attacks and not just specials.
Yeah...competitive and all that. But even just a bit of variation or cosmetic stuff would feel nice. Like if Swordfighter's Shuriken became a gold Ryo coin when wearing the Goemon costume and whatnot. Or having a variation of Mii Brawler's Bowling Bowl special that is a bomb instead of a bowling ball.

Although it still wouldn't fix Mii Swordfighter's Forward Air attack...
 

7NATOR

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Yes, there's a limited number of spaces in the base roster. Probably some assist trophies were considered as playable, but were decided against. Yes, some of them were popular, and are still popular. But their actual status hasn't changed. None of them have had new games or gained further popularity since DLC announcement, with the minor exception of Waluigi who I already addressed. Despite what you think, existing in the game already is something holding them back, even if it's not the end all be all, because there has to be something to push them to make Nintendo reconsider their original decision instead of opting for something new.

I'll also address Shadow specifically since I know he's the character you're personally pushing for. He's similar enough to Sonic that he could have easily been made into an Echo if Sakurai wanted him to be. In fact, most people were shocked he wasn't one. Sure he has enough material to be made into a unique fighter, but so does literally every other echo fighter in the game. Sakurai also has been really hellbent on making each dlc fighter as standout and unique as possible. Again, technically possible to do with Sonic characters, but in general I do not think they are something he's particularly inspired by or something Nintendo would particularly push for like they did with Steve. I respect your dedication to the character you want, but none of what you said has really changed my stance on why I think the character isn't coming. I could be proven wrong, of course, but I stand by my reasonings until that day hypothetically comes.
Loving this

-Sonic as a franchise is in a better position now than it was in 2015 though. Shadow himself actually also has been used more by Sega, because for a time He wasn't as prominent in the Early 2010's.

-Shovel Knight didn't get new game, but they have been loaning him out to alot of Crossover apperances and they have made new expansions for Shovel Knight in that time

-Skull Kid did get his own DLC Expansion in Cadence of Hyrule. kind of small, but somewhat noteworthy


Okay on the Echo Point, let me shut this down

The whole Point of Echo Fighters is to add characters, that Normally wouldn't be added in on their own, as Clone fighters that don't take up much time. This is to suggest if they weren't added as Echoes, they wouldn't be added at all, and there are factors against each of the echoes to prevent them from being added on their own

-Chrom was Confirmed by Sakurai to be passed over since Sakurai saw he'd just be a blend of Marth and Ike, and that's why Robin was chosen. In this game, he does play like a Marth and Ike mix, due to being Roy's Echo

-On somewhat of the same token, this could be applied to Lucina as well, though due to her copying marth in the Story, they intially made her Marth costume, than to Marth echo latter

-Daisy should not have been a Carbon Copy of Peach, she should have had more differences. with that being said, she does not have much material that separates her from Peach, or the rest of the Mario Cast. You could say Sports equipment, but that also applies to other Mario characters and not specifically Daisy, and Peach does use the equipment for her Forward Smash.

-Dark Pit also should have used the Staff perhaps as a Special, since it's portrayed heavily in both his Smash 4 and Ultimate render. with that being said, Pit and Dark Pit do share the Same moves I believe. Dark Pit could have used other weapons from the Uprising game, but Pit could have used that as well.

-Dark Samus does have the material from her games for unique moveset...but the problem is that by the time she was added (and even now to) she's been Irrelevant for around a Decade, and had no hint of returning in the Series. She was also always heavily overshadowed by Ridley, who was added along with her.

-Richter and Simon share their moveset

-Ken also has his Differences from Ryu in this game, to the point that people consider them Semi-Clones.

The Point being that in most of these cases, these characters would NOT have gotten in without being echo fighters, just looking at all the merits and such

That's not the case with Shadow. He's been a Very Popular character for about 20 years now, And could be considered Iconic character as well. He's been a very popular request, he's relevant character, and He also has Unique mechanics and abilities that belong only to him, or at the least can be attributed to him. These days Shadow is the only Character that uses Chaos Abilities. Sonic and Silver haven't used Chaos Control since 2006, while Shadow is still using it to this day, and that also doesn't take into account his other Chaos Abilities

The Point is that Shadow has all the merits to get in as his Own character. Can he technically be an echo fighter: Yes he can. The argument I'm making, and have been making since Base game speculation, is that Logically, I don't think he would, because Shadow has the Merits to be his Own Unique character, and plus Sega might not be down for Shadow being a Echo of Sonic

How Sonic games work and how a Platform Fighter like Smash works are different beasts. The movesets in Smash are much more emphasized than in the Main Sonic games

Instead of comparing Shadow to the other Echo Fighters, instead compare Shadow to a character like Sephiroth, because Shadow has the merits that are comparable to Sephiroth. There's good argument of Shadow being more Iconic, or at least more recognizable than Sephiroth as an example

Now for whether Sakurai would find the other Sonic characters moveset interesting, we already had this discussion and it's up to Speculation. so I'm not gonna get into that point.

Now I'm not trying to change my stance. I'm just showcasing mine, and why I do think a Character like Shadow as a good chance, despite the factors surrounding him
 

spicynun

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While Sony had tons of faces for the Playstation brand back in the late 90's such as Spyro the Dragon, Lara Croft, Cloud etc... None were never really compared to or pit against Mario or even Sonic who are the faces of their companies, That was Crash Bandicoot's job.

Which is why I believe that the majority still viewed Crash Bandicoot as the unofficial/de facto mascot of Sony's Playstation brand.

While FF predates Crash Bandicoot, Crash Bandicoot (1996) predates Cloud/FF7 (1997).

Sony not just promoted his games, But Crash Bandicoot was the one sent to the frontlines with his megaphone and was in your face to help promote the Playstation brand and other games in general, Hell he was even in freaking Pizza Hut commercials too.


Platformers, Kart Racers and Party Games.
Sound familiar? Crash Bandicoot was Sony's "Mario".
I remember watching a 90s video game commercial compilation for nostalgia and half of them were just these Crash ones.
 

Speed Weed

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My point is they won't be promoted to a playable fighter and a Mii is at most where we'll get closest to it otherwise they may have well just actually made Bomberman an actual fighter promoted from assist to begin with.
Frankly, this makes zero sense because it basically runs on not only acting like they have infinite slots and infinite development time but also treating every character with an Assist as if they were in the exact same situation
 
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Louie G.

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Platformers, Kart Racers and Party Games.
Sound familiar? Crash Bandicoot was Sony's "Mario".
To play devil's advocate, this can also be applied to Final Fantasy, or more specifically Chocobo, which had a kart spinoff and board game party spinoff on top of a Mystery Dungeon sort of game all exclusive to Playstation.

1615848894971.png
1615848882065.png


I'm not denying Crash's mascot status, but I don't think he was as ubiquitous and definitive as Mario and Sonic were for their respective consoles. The fact that we can debate this at all is proof of that much.
 
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chocolatejr9

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I can't believe he's 50 years old. He doesn't look a day older than 35. :ultgreninja:

Come to think of it, what kind of timeline does KoF follow? Is it super spread out, or do all the games take place in the course of a few years?
I don't know if they ever mentioned that. I know it contradicts both Fatal Fury and Art of Fighting, but that's about it...
 

Guynamednelson

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Come to think of it, what kind of timeline does KoF follow? Is it super spread out, or do all the games take place in the course of a few years?
The characters were allowed to age from 94 to 95, then after that it's one of those timelines where the year changes but the ages stay the same.
 

SKX31

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Oh ya.

Birthday boy, birthday boy.

View attachment 307382
Happy birthday, :ult_terry: ! Honestly, Sakurai and co should mod this shirt onto him to celebrate:



:4pacman:

Hard to believe that Terry is actually 50 years old. That must be one hell of a fitness program he got going there.
He's heavier than :ultwario: and :ultike: , so yes, Terry lifts. :4dedede:

Not sure if they'd be allowed for competition still, but I'd even like variation on normal attacks and not just specials.
Yeah...competitive and all that. But even just a bit of variation or cosmetic stuff would feel nice. Like if Swordfighter's Shuriken became a gold Ryo coin when wearing the Goemon costume and whatnot. Or having a variation of Mii Brawler's Bowling Bowl special that is a bomb instead of a bowling ball.

Although it still wouldn't fix Mii Swordfighter's Forward Air attack...
I do think that as long as those cosmetic changes aren't too bright or gives an unfair advantage (such as the cosmetic showing exact tipper positioning) the cosmetic changes will be fine amongst competitive people honestly.

And if I may ask (since I've never played Swordfighter much), what's the deal with F-Air? It it has trouble connecting, well, it's far from alone. Ultimate has a pretty long list of multi-hits that seem to randomly drop for no good reason.
 
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Ivander

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And if I may ask (since I've never played Swordfighter much), what's the deal with F-Air? It it has trouble connecting, well, it's far from alone. Ultimate has a pretty long list of multi-hits that seem to randomly drop for no good reason.
Oh, it has no issue with connecting, especially since it goes down to up compared to what Smash 4 did.

It just looks.....so awkward. It, Up-Air and Down-Air just look so awkward in action. Like I know physics shouldn't be applied to video games, but like, seeing the Mii Swordfighter do three successive stabs in the air or twirling around while stabbing upward or downward..., especially with costumes like Viridi, Ashley, Black Knight, etc, it just looks so awkward.
I get that they probably did it in an attempt to be more original than the same up-air/down-air/forward-air that almost alot of other sword character use. And it looks...okay with the main Mii swordfighter look. But that doesn't really stop from looking awkward, especially with the Mii costumes with either blunt weapons like Viridi or Ashley or costumes with alot of heavy armor like Black Knight.

There's nothing really wrong with them gameplay-wise. But visually, there's just something about them that hits something of mine that does not sit well with them. It's really just a me thing rather than an actual gameplay thing.
 
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MooMew64

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I guess what confuses me about the AT argument is that there isn't anything really going for promotions right now.

Like...The Bomberman costume doesn't show anything other than they had a model that they were able to reuse because it just so happened to be detailed enough for a costume and Bomberman fit on Mii proportions. IMHO, I wouldn't use that as evidence AT's are all of a sudden in the same camp as basegame spirits.
 

SharkLord

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I guess what confuses me about the AT argument is that there isn't anything really going for promotions right now.

Like...The Bomberman costume doesn't show anything other than they had a model that they were able to reuse because it just so happened to be detailed enough for a costume and Bomberman fit on Mii proportions. IMHO, I wouldn't use that as evidence AT's are all of a sudden in the same camp as basegame spirits.
Yeah, there aren't many candidates that are in a good spot at the moment. It's more that they're possible and wouldn't be a game-breaking workload on the devs, but with how little space is left, just because they can doesn't mean they will.
 

3BitSaurus

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Yeah, there aren't many candidates that are in a good spot at the moment. It's more that they're possible and wouldn't be a game-breaking workload on the devs, but with how little space is left, just because they can doesn't mean they will.
Pretty much this. AT promotion as a concept is very much feasible, but the issue is just that there aren't a lot of them on a good spot. Waluigi and Isaac have the fan demand, but lack a specific Switch game to tie into, which so far has been a constant in most first party DLCs.

For third parties, Bomberman got a costume this wave and the Castlevania and Mega Man content we have covers enough that I doubt we'd get Alucard or Zero. For Shadow and Knuckles, I'd argue Tails and Eggman seem more likely due to their roles.

That pretty much leaves Shovel Knight as the only AT with a reasonable shot, methinks.

Though, to be fair, if this was back in Smash 4, then I would bet on Isabelle getting promoted for sure.
 

SNEKeater

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Yeah, ATs do not deconfirm for Pass 2 but it doesn't feel like a lot of characters are in a good position to become playable. Maybe Waluigi because... Waluigi. So I could see Nintendo adding him after all the memes and popularity he got in 2018.

Besides that yeah... I don't feel other ATs have decent chances to become playable, at least for the remaining 2 slots. I'd have said Isaac, but after Mario Golf, it seems unlikely that we'll get something Golden Sun related in the near future.

Still praying for Alucard, though. He's still waiting...



If he ever gets in I wouldn't mind if Sakurai takes some things from the Netflix show, like him unsheathing his sword like this or using it like a projectile as he does in the anime:

 

chocolatejr9

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Yeah, ATs do not deconfirm for Pass 2 but it doesn't feel like a lot of characters are in a good position to become playable. Maybe Waluigi because... Waluigi. So I could see Nintendo adding him after all the memes and popularity he got in 2018.

Besides that yeah... I don't feel other ATs have decent chances to become playable, at least for the remaining 2 slots. I'd have said Isaac, but after Mario Golf, it seems unlikely that we'll get something Golden Sun related in the near future.

Still praying for Alucard, though. He's still waiting...



If he ever gets in I wouldn't mind if Sakurai takes some things from the Netflix show, like him unsheathing his sword like this or using it like a projectile as he does in the anime:

I hate to be THAT person, but the Waluigi backlash was GREATLY exaggerrated. Heck, it didn't even matter to Japan, who don't seem to care for him in the slightest, and considering how biased Nintendo is to Japan...
 

ChunkySlugger72

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To play devil's advocate, this can also be applied to Final Fantasy, or more specifically Chocobo, which had a kart spinoff and board game party spinoff on top of a Mystery Dungeon sort of game all exclusive to Playstation.

View attachment 307386View attachment 307385

I'm not denying Crash's mascot status, but I don't think he was as ubiquitous and definitive as Mario and Sonic were for their respective consoles. The fact that we can debate this at all is proof of that much.
Of course Crash Bandicoot didn't reach end up reaching the status of Mario or even Sonic.

Sony didn't "Officially" have "The Face" because they heavily relied on 3rd party companies at the time and to this very day even with all their 1st party franchises Sony still doesn't really have a face for their brand, Many could argue it's Kratos or even Ratchet & Clank, But it's not as obvious as Mario or Master Chief.

But of all the faces and mascots of the Playstation brand at the time, I'm willing to bet that the average person would still consider Crash Bandicoot as the "Closest" to what Sony had as their "Mario/Mascot".
 

Diddy Kong

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I read someone here say that all the first party DLC characters had a Switch release to "justify" their addition, or he talked about it being a sort of common ground they share. Either way, if we take this as a rule, and at least one of the remaining DLC Fighters is first party owned, what games make the most sense to be represented ?

I still think a Zelda newcomer is a likely scenario because of this. Other than that, there are no huge outstanding obvious candidates. Breath of the Wild was huge, and outside Link getting his move set overhaul, BotW got no actual new character. Neither did we get a new Zelda character for a long time. Also have to consider BotW2 is in the making, and the anniversary is this year... It could be a reason for a Zelda character to be added, possibly as the last DLC character even.
 

SharkLord

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Crash's main thing is the PS1 legacy, plus the bonus of getting a revival. I'd argue he's not as big as he once was, but the fact that he even got that big in the first place is a plus.

Still, I'm not sure if it really pushes him to ultra top-tier level like some believe... But then again, it's not like I can think of anyone else who's ultra top-tier, so...
 

LiveStudioAudience

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I think its more fair to say the first party characters were a case of Nintendo rectifying dubious timing with their releases in relation to the base game rather than outright trying to promote them for the most part.

In regards to the former scenario, I'd say Pokémon is the only one that fits, but they're an odd franchise to predict for cross franchise DLC, so things could go either way for them.

Otherwise I think we're finished with first party DLC for the rest of the pass.
 

3BitSaurus

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I read someone here say that all the first party DLC characters had a Switch release to "justify" their addition, or he talked about it being a sort of common ground they share. Either way, if we take this as a rule, and at least one of the remaining DLC Fighters is first party owned, what games make the most sense to be represented ?
I said something like that, but I don't think I was the only one.

It's less of a hard rule, but 3 out of the 4 first party DLCs in Ultimate tied into a Switch release. Plus Corrin, the only Smash 4 first party newcomer DLC, also tied into a recent game. Sure, it's not foolproof, but there's enough precedent there.
 

Mushroomguy12

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The first movie was the last movie I saw in theatres before the pandemic.....

What great irony it would be if this was the first one I see in theatres after the pandemic (I certainly hope not though since this ain't coming out for more than a year).

 

7NATOR

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I hate to be THAT person, but the Waluigi backlash was GREATLY exaggerrated. Heck, it didn't even matter to Japan, who don't seem to care for him in the slightest, and considering how biased Nintendo is to Japan...
At the very least, it did make Reggie talk to Sakurai about the Support about Waluigi, Which is definitely a big deal I would believe

Now the Ball is in the court of Sakurai, and the Japan branch of Nintendo (the main one) to decide if Waluigi will be Playable in this DLC though.
 

Rie Sonomura

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The first movie was the last movie I saw in theatres before the pandemic.....

What great irony it would be if this was the first one I see in theatres after the pandemic (I certainly hope not though since this ain't coming out for more than a year).

love the Tails touch to the 2 in the logo

fr tho if Sonic 3's movie isn't called Sonic The Hedgehog 3: & Knuckles...
 

warubyun

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I hate to be THAT person, but the Waluigi backlash was GREATLY exaggerrated. Heck, it didn't even matter to Japan, who don't seem to care for him in the slightest, and considering how biased Nintendo is to Japan...
Exaggerated or not, it was enough for them to acknowledge his demand twice (I've read elsewhere that they did so more than that, but I haven't found anything of that myself), which is more than can be said for most other contenders - many of whom have support bases which, I'm sure, are also significantly inflated in speculation. Even if I was someone who didn't want him myself, I would've had a hard time believing that it didn't count for anything.

It's not like the past two passes have been exclusively catered to Japan, either, so what's stopping them from nodding towards the West again? Many people here seem on board with that idea, just with other characters.
 

SharkLord

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I read someone here say that all the first party DLC characters had a Switch release to "justify" their addition, or he talked about it being a sort of common ground they share. Either way, if we take this as a rule, and at least one of the remaining DLC Fighters is first party owned, what games make the most sense to be represented ?

I still think a Zelda newcomer is a likely scenario because of this. Other than that, there are no huge outstanding obvious candidates. Breath of the Wild was huge, and outside Link getting his move set overhaul, BotW got no actual new character. Neither did we get a new Zelda character for a long time. Also have to consider BotW2 is in the making, and the anniversary is this year... It could be a reason for a Zelda character to be added, possibly as the last DLC character even.
Well...
  • If we take Spirit Events as deconfirmations, that counts out Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure, Pokemon Sword and Shield, and Age of Calamity, as the content would most likely be saved for the Challenger Pack instead of being left scattered throughout the duration of the passes.
  • If we take Mii Costumes as deconfirmations, that rules out Splatoon and Breath of the Wild, based on the same reasoning as the Spirits.
  • All the characters chosen in advance since Smash 4 (Greninja, Corrin, Incineroar, Byleth) have had about six months to a year between their debut game and their reveal, so BDSP and Legends seem a bit too far off at the moment. BotW2 seems to be in the same boat, and MP4 is definitely not releasing soon enough to fit in that timeframe.
  • The addition of Pyra and Mythra makes it seem like we won't be getting another Xeno pack. By the same logic, Byleth's a hit towards anyone from Fire Emblem Warriors and TMS (And FEH, if we're including mobile releases).
By process of elimination, it seems that our best bets would be King Boo for Luigi's Mansion 3 and Ayumi for the Famicom Detective Club remakes. I'm leaning towards the latter, as Smash seems to favor settings that are heavily lacking in content (ARMS and XC2 didn't even have a fighter, and FF7 was heavily lacking in the Spirit and song departments). Luigi's Mansion stars, y'know, Luigi, who's already in Smash and has the LM3 Poltergust to boot, plus a stage for the first installment. I feel like Nintendo would think Luigi's representation enough for LM3 if they're trying to get people to buy it.
 

chocolatejr9

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I read someone here say that all the first party DLC characters had a Switch release to "justify" their addition, or he talked about it being a sort of common ground they share. Either way, if we take this as a rule, and at least one of the remaining DLC Fighters is first party owned, what games make the most sense to be represented ?

I still think a Zelda newcomer is a likely scenario because of this. Other than that, there are no huge outstanding obvious candidates. Breath of the Wild was huge, and outside Link getting his move set overhaul, BotW got no actual new character. Neither did we get a new Zelda character for a long time. Also have to consider BotW2 is in the making, and the anniversary is this year... It could be a reason for a Zelda character to be added, possibly as the last DLC character even.
They add Euden to promote the Dragalia Lost Switch port!

What Dragalia Lost Switch port? The one that they're going to use to promote Euden in Smash!
 

7NATOR

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
4,089
love the Tails touch to the 2 in the logo

fr tho if Sonic 3's movie isn't called Sonic The Hedgehog 3: & Knuckles...
Well Knuckles is supposed to be in the 2nd Movie as well.

Now I guess it depends how large of a role Knuckles as. Maybe once they have the Knuckles trailer, they might call it Sonic the Hedgehog 2 & Knuckles as an update to the Title

But It seems the 2nd movie might focus on all of the Classic era things, if they are introducing Knuckles this early. We might even get Amy and Metal Sonic in here as well. If that's the case, then the 3rd movie might have more of a focus on the Modern Era characters, like Shadow, Rouge, Perhaps Chaos, etc

so I don't know if the 3rd movie would be Sonic the Hedgehog 3 & Knuckles

Well...
  • If we take Spirit Events as deconfirmations, that counts out Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure, Pokemon Sword and Shield, and Age of Calamity, as the content would most likely be saved for the Challenger Pack instead of being left scattered throughout the duration of the passes.
  • If we take Mii Costumes as deconfirmations, that rules out Splatoon and Breath of the Wild, based on the same reasoning as the Spirits.
  • All the characters chosen in advance since Smash 4 (Greninja, Corrin, Incineroar, Byleth) have had about six months to a year between their debut game and their reveal, so BDSP and Legends seem a bit too far off at the moment. BotW2 seems to be in the same boat, and MP4 is definitely not releasing soon enough to fit in that timeframe.
  • The addition of Pyra and Mythra makes it seem like we won't be getting another Xeno pack. By the same logic, Byleth's a hit towards anyone from Fire Emblem Warriors and TMS (And FEH, if we're including mobile releases).
By process of elimination, it seems that our best bets would be King Boo for Luigi's Mansion 3 and Ayumi for the Famicom Detective Club remakes. I'm leaning towards the latter, as Smash seems to favor settings that are heavily lacking in content (ARMS and XC2 didn't even have a fighter, and FF7 was heavily lacking in the Spirit and song departments). Luigi's Mansion stars, y'know, Luigi, who's already in Smash and has the LM3 Poltergust to boot, plus a stage for the first installment. I feel like Nintendo would think Luigi's representation enough for LM3 if they're trying to get people to buy it.
Honestly at that point, I think our best bets would be Bandana Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, and Waluigi for 1st party

Like I know Kirby and Donkey Kong already have some substantial content (especially since DK got K.Rool this game, though I know about the lack of Modern Kirby content), and Mario especially already has alot of content in the game already, But If we going into the realm of Ayumi for potential characters, I think they should be considered options

I don't think the want to add new things to Smash will supercede over Potential characters like Bandana Dee and Dixie Kong, or especially Waluigi since we will know these characters will sell. Ayumi is a much harder sell to be honest as a DLC Character, even if she would bring in the more new stuff, simply because It's just now coming back as a franchise with these remasters

Fire Emblem keeps getting characters because it was already proven succcessful. ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 got characters because they were already successful. We don't see that with Famicom Detective Club, and it's even worse here since Visual Novel I would say isn't the most popular Genre (Not super niche, but it's not as widespread as RPG's, Plus even if you did want to go with Something like this, I think Golden Sun would be the better option since at least there's been some heavy demand for Isaac.

And Honestly, while I know ARMS, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and Final Fantasy 7 didn't have the most content, they still had content at the end of the day. Three houses was a new branch of Fire Emblem, but it was still Fire Emblem at the end of the day.
 
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