Yes, there's a limited number of spaces in the base roster. Probably some assist trophies were considered as playable, but were decided against. Yes, some of them were popular, and are still popular. But their actual status hasn't changed. None of them have had new games or gained further popularity since DLC announcement, with the minor exception of Waluigi who I already addressed. Despite what you think, existing in the game already is something holding them back, even if it's not the end all be all, because there has to be something to push them to make Nintendo reconsider their original decision instead of opting for something new.
I'll also address Shadow specifically since I know he's the character you're personally pushing for. He's similar enough to Sonic that he could have easily been made into an Echo if Sakurai wanted him to be. In fact, most people were shocked he wasn't one. Sure he has enough material to be made into a unique fighter, but so does literally every other echo fighter in the game. Sakurai also has been really hellbent on making each dlc fighter as standout and unique as possible. Again, technically possible to do with Sonic characters, but in general I do not think they are something he's particularly inspired by or something Nintendo would particularly push for like they did with Steve. I respect your dedication to the character you want, but none of what you said has really changed my stance on why I think the character isn't coming. I could be proven wrong, of course, but I stand by my reasonings until that day hypothetically comes.
Loving this
-Sonic as a franchise is in a better position now than it was in 2015 though. Shadow himself actually also has been used more by Sega, because for a time He wasn't as prominent in the Early 2010's.
-Shovel Knight didn't get new game, but they have been loaning him out to alot of Crossover apperances and they have made new expansions for Shovel Knight in that time
-Skull Kid did get his own DLC Expansion in Cadence of Hyrule. kind of small, but somewhat noteworthy
Okay on the Echo Point, let me shut this down
The whole Point of Echo Fighters is to add characters, that Normally wouldn't be added in on their own, as Clone fighters that don't take up much time. This is to suggest if they weren't added as Echoes, they wouldn't be added at all, and there are factors against each of the echoes to prevent them from being added on their own
-Chrom was Confirmed by Sakurai to be passed over since Sakurai saw he'd just be a blend of Marth and Ike, and that's why Robin was chosen. In this game, he does play like a Marth and Ike mix, due to being Roy's Echo
-On somewhat of the same token, this could be applied to Lucina as well, though due to her copying marth in the Story, they intially made her Marth costume, than to Marth echo latter
-Daisy should not have been a Carbon Copy of Peach, she should have had more differences. with that being said, she does not have much material that separates her from Peach, or the rest of the Mario Cast. You could say Sports equipment, but that also applies to other Mario characters and not specifically Daisy, and Peach does use the equipment for her Forward Smash.
-Dark Pit also should have used the Staff perhaps as a Special, since it's portrayed heavily in both his Smash 4 and Ultimate render. with that being said, Pit and Dark Pit do share the Same moves I believe. Dark Pit could have used other weapons from the Uprising game, but Pit could have used that as well.
-Dark Samus does have the material from her games for unique moveset...but the problem is that by the time she was added (and even now to) she's been Irrelevant for around a Decade, and had no hint of returning in the Series. She was also always heavily overshadowed by Ridley, who was added along with her.
-Richter and Simon share their moveset
-Ken also has his Differences from Ryu in this game, to the point that people consider them Semi-Clones.
The Point being that in most of these cases, these characters would NOT have gotten in without being echo fighters, just looking at all the merits and such
That's not the case with Shadow. He's been a Very Popular character for about 20 years now, And could be considered Iconic character as well. He's been a very popular request, he's relevant character, and He also has Unique mechanics and abilities that belong only to him, or at the least can be attributed to him. These days Shadow is the only Character that uses Chaos Abilities. Sonic and Silver haven't used Chaos Control since 2006, while Shadow is still using it to this day, and that also doesn't take into account his other Chaos Abilities
The Point is that Shadow has all the merits to get in as his Own character. Can he technically be an echo fighter: Yes he can. The argument I'm making, and have been making since Base game speculation, is that Logically, I don't think he would, because Shadow has the Merits to be his Own Unique character, and plus Sega might not be down for Shadow being a Echo of Sonic
How Sonic games work and how a Platform Fighter like Smash works are different beasts. The movesets in Smash are much more emphasized than in the Main Sonic games
Instead of comparing Shadow to the other Echo Fighters, instead compare Shadow to a character like Sephiroth, because Shadow has the merits that are comparable to Sephiroth. There's good argument of Shadow being more Iconic, or at least more recognizable than Sephiroth as an example
Now for whether Sakurai would find the other Sonic characters moveset interesting, we already had this discussion and it's up to Speculation. so I'm not gonna get into that point.
Now I'm not trying to change my stance. I'm just showcasing mine, and why I do think a Character like Shadow as a good chance, despite the factors surrounding him