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I am going to laugh so hard if Decidueye manages to sneak into one of the last two slots. By all accounts, he should have no chance since we already got Incineroar, but here we are still talking about him due to Legends: Arceus giving him the smallest sliver of hope along with this new development.
Eventually though they meet each other and one of them punches the other so hard he bounces all around the room to pinball sounds. Because of course he does.
I am going to laugh so hard if Decidueye manages to sneak into one of the last two slots. By all accounts, he should have no chance since we already got Incineroar, but here we are still talking about him due to Legends: Arceus giving him the smallest sliver of hope along with this new development.
He's watchin and waitin. His string pulled taut, waiting to let that arrow fly. He's gotta sit in his tree and see if he wants to swoop down and join this whole thing first. He was GONNA then Sephiroth showed up and he's like "ehhhh I dunnoooooooo" and then Pyra/Mythra and he's like "welllllll it's not too laaaaate"
I just want to say that because this is a gaming forum, I read your post and my brain registered Freddy as Freddy Fazbear before common sense kicked in.
Though I guess you're not wrong since FNAF is also a horror franchise that's milked to death.
So on a completely different note: the reason I asked about the three DLC teams before was because I realized something. With P/M released and two more slots to go, that means one of the teams would be free... and if there was a third Volume, it would probably have entered pre-production. Meaning that "E3"/CP10's announcement will basically be our equivalent to the direct where Terry was announced and we got Volume 2.
...So if nothing happens then, we can confirm the chances of Volume 3 would pretty much go from 1% to 0, as if Sakurai's words weren't already clear enough.
Spicy hot take: I think this is the end of the line for Hayabusa. You might argue ArcSys and Marvelous getting one spirit event each before a playable character from them doesn’t rule them out (River City and Daemon X Machina respectively) but TWO?!
Koei-Tecmo was also in the copyright of the AoC spirits in case you wanna validate your thought that we aren't getting a KT character.
All of Koei-Tecmo's post-launch content as of this moment involve collaborations with other publishers (Nintendo and SEGA + Atlus). The signs against a KT rep happening would be way more clear if their self-owned content were to be in Smash instead like a Ninja Gaiden or a Samurai Warriors 5 Spirit Event.
Koei-Tecmo was also in the copyright of the AoC spirits in case you wanna validate your thought that we aren't getting a KT character.
All of Koei-Tecmo's post-launch content as of this moment involve collaborations with other publishers (Nintendo and SEGA + Atlus). The signs against a KT rep happening would be way more clear if their self-owned content were to be in Smash instead like a Ninja Gaiden or a Samurai Warriors 5 Spirit Event.
My issue with KT is that all we have to go off of is a handful of literal who no-name leakers, and Vergeben who "may" have heard something.
If this were say, Imran who was starting to talk about KT, then I'd be interested, but KT has always existed in this weird spot for me, where a LOT of people seem confident in it happening, and I don't see where their confidence stems from.
Spicy hot take: I think this is the end of the line for Hayabusa. You might argue ArcSys and Marvelous getting one spirit event each before a playable character from them doesn’t rule them out (River City and Daemon X Machina respectively) but TWO?!
That depends on whether you consider Sophia a “Spirit Event” and whether you consider Age of Calamity a Koei Tecmo game. Neither are Koei Tecmo IPs, so I don’t think it all adds up as clearly. Besides, we got plenty of SE spirit events and still had Sepiroth so it’s very much a reach to say Koei is out because of a singular promo spirit of another company‘s IP
Sometimes it sounds like people think leaks are all that Ryu Hayabusa has going for him. As if his status as a long standing gaming icon and company mascot who has had successful games in multiple genres across multiple console generations, as well as numerous guest appearances in other games isn't enough to make him a frontrunner.
Sometimes it sounds like people think leaks are all that Ryu Hayabusa has going for him. As if his status as a long standing gaming icon and company mascot who has had successful games in multiple genres across multiple console generations, as well as numerous guest appearances in other games isn't enough to make him a frontrunner.
All those tags could be given to a lot of characters that we talk about. But just because they are, doesn't make one more likely than the other tbh.
Let's not kid ourselves. Would Ryu be anywhere near the talking point that he is right now were it not for the Iamshifty/Brew leaks? I don't think so. A popular pick? Sure, but near guaranteed like soo many think? Nah.
It's sad this version, the most iconic, doesn't even have a freaking cameo yet. I don't think even the two NES designs have a cameo, which are basically just this one without the actual trident(one's a shadow of him, not to be confused with the actual Shadow Ganon from Link's Awakening). We've had Ganon(OOT), Ganon(TP), and Calamity Ganon at least. I think Puppet Ganon might've had a spirit, though? Sadly not even the unique design(a combination of multiple ones) from HW got a Spirit. It's basically Ganon from TP with a bit more of a bipedal design, but somewhat like OOT's one as well.
Also, Phantom Ganon really should've appeared by now as well(I don't mean playable). Would make for a great mini-boss too, since he's the most consistent user of Dead Man's Volley(funny thing is everybody uses it in one game total otherwise. Phantom Ganon does it in 3 games, OOT, WW, and FSA. Albeit, the FSA one is pretty much a Toon game, so it makes sense he reuses the same design).
The "Frontrunners" all have some really good reasons why they might get in and also some good reasons for why they wouldn't get in. I personally wouldn't bet on anyone because of how crazy it can be sometimes.
Extended Thoughts:
These are who I think the community thinks are frontrunners and at least one reason why I think they can and can't get in
Lloyd
+Tales of is arguably the 4th largest JRPG of all time and Lloyd specifically had a Mii costume
-Lloyd has a Mii costume and it almost certainly will return.
-Ryu Hayabusa
+An icon of the NES Era and beyond
-Koei seems to have done a lot with smash with no sign of a character. Not a great reason but it is still a potential reason
-A Pokemon
+Insert Smarmy comment about being a Shill pick
-Gen 8 had a spirit event, Pokemon Legends won't be out for at least a year and Remakes are rarely promoted with a character.
-Crash
+Crash is popular and currently has a healthy dose of content on the Switch
-Activision. Not a great reason but it is still a potential reason
(There is also Yuri and he doesn't have much against him that I can think of aside from the comment about how "Lloyd was the only option" for a Mii costume or something like that, but I feel like using potentially outdated or mistranslated Sakurai comments isn't a good argument for or against something.)
If this were say, Imran who was starting to talk about KT, then I'd be interested, but KT has always existed in this weird spot for me, where a LOT of people seem confident in it happening, and I don't see where their confidence stems from.
Imran once said Fortnite is like Sonic shooting Mario which was why Jonesy's in Smash
But on that note, I can understand KT being in a questionable position. It's been a couple of months since Vergeburger said Nintendo and KT were in discussions, and with 2 characters left til Ultimate presumably ends, you can only take that claim as either the same league as the Square Enix character claim he made before launch or Star Fox Grand Prix claim that ended up being wrong.
Spicy hot take: I think this is the end of the line for Hayabusa. You might argue ArcSys and Marvelous getting one spirit event each before a playable character from them doesn’t rule them out (River City and Daemon X Machina respectively) but TWO?!
I mean, maybe but neither of these are Koei-Tecmo franchises. They’re both Spirits from other franchises already with a playable presence in Smash.
Like if all of a sudden we got a Dynasty Warriors Mii Costume or Spirit Event, yeah I’d pack it up but this doesn’t do much for me since it’s Persona and Zelda which y’know, already have playable representation. Marvelous has both spirits in the form of Daemon X Machina and a costume in Travis, ArcSys only Has spirits of Kunio which is, by and large not their most popular franchise so they have room to work with.
Personally I think Marvelous is dead but I feel like both ArcSys and Koei-Tecmo, especially KT for the reasons above, are very much still alive but that’s my version. One of us will end up wrong eventually lol.
All those tags could be given to a lot of characters that we talk about. But just because they are, doesn't make one more likely than the other tbh.
Let's not kid ourselves. Would Ryu be anywhere near the talking point that he is right now were it not for the Iamshifty/Brew leaks? I don't think so. A popular pick? Sure, but near guaranteed like soo many think? Nah.
Spicy hot take: I think this is the end of the line for Hayabusa. You might argue ArcSys and Marvelous getting one spirit event each before a playable character from them doesn’t rule them out (River City and Daemon X Machina respectively) but TWO?!
To be fair, I think the AOC and P5S spirits are a little different because those are co-owned Nintendo and Atlus characters respectively. We got Tokyo Mirage Sessions spirits in the base game and yet that wasn't the kiss of death for Joker.
To be fair, I think the AOC and P5S spirits are a little different because those are co-owned Nintendo and Atlus characters respectively. We got Tokyo Mirage Sessions spirits in the base game and yet that wasn't the kiss of death for Joker.
It's sad this version, the most iconic, doesn't even have a freaking cameo yet. I don't think even the two NES designs have a cameo, which are basically just this one without the actual trident(one's a shadow of him, not to be confused with the actual Shadow Ganon from Link's Awakening). We've had Ganon(OOT), Ganon(TP), and Calamity Ganon at least. I think Puppet Ganon might've had a spirit, though? Sadly not even the unique design(a combination of multiple ones) from HW got a Spirit. It's basically Ganon from TP with a bit more of a bipedal design, but somewhat like OOT's one as well.
Also, Phantom Ganon really should've appeared by now as well(I don't mean playable). Would make for a great mini-boss too, since he's the most consistent user of Dead Man's Volley(funny thing is everybody uses it in one game total otherwise. Phantom Ganon does it in 3 games, OOT, WW, and FSA. Albeit, the FSA one is pretty much a Toon game, so it makes sense he reuses the same design).
(Did not see Puppet Ganon anywhere on the Spirit List, sadly)
First, I'm gonna dispute whether Classic Ganon is the most iconic. Especially given that we're now at a point where Ganondorf's existed for 20+ years and more people grew up with OoT / the post-OoT games than the pre-OoT games.
Regardless, it becomes even more sad when taking into account that most if not all classic Zelda enemies use their more modern designs for the Spirits. The only Zelda Spirits that use pre-OoT artwork are NES Link, Aghanim, Marin and the Wind Fish. That pales in comparision to OoT onwards, who got the lion's share of Zelda Spirits.
The problem there might be that Nintendo and Sakurai possibly consider Ganondorf = Ganon regardless of appearance in conjuction with Ganon not being given much room to himself.* As harsh as it is (and believe me, I'd love to see a trident wielder and a different take on the superheavy zoner that's not as linear as K. Rool turned out to be), there's a strong possibility that they don't see (S)NES Ganon as distinct from say OoT / TP Ganon, or even Calamity Ganon.
Which, I'll reiterate, sucks because it equals wasted potential. Nintendo does have the option to bring it back and let the other Ganon variants rest, but they choose not to for whatever reason.
Even with Calamity Ganon - he got a humanoid form in Age of Calamity, which might signal a continuation re: how interconnected the more human / more beastly sides of Ganon are to each other.
To add to this: if I'm not mistaken, Kunio isn't an Arcsys inhouse franchise, but rather acquired by them after they bought Technos. So it's like if Etrian Odyssey was our only Sega representation in Smash - I doubt that would affect Sonic's chances.
With what Shroob
noticed with that save data spirits, I'm definitely in the May reveal camp for CP10. It's clear that the releases have been getting quicker after Steve. And of course E3 is becoming non-existent now and Nintendo is likely wary of E3 since 2019.
Wait: The 9th Friday the 13th movie was set in Hell. Does this mean that Gen9 will be set in Hell and thus we'll get a Hell-ish Pokemon in Smash?
(Did not see Puppet Ganon anywhere on the Spirit List, sadly)
First, I'm gonna dispute whether Classic Ganon is the most iconic. Especially given that we're now at a point where Ganondorf's existed for 20+ years and more people grew up with OoT / the post-OoT games than the pre-OoT games.
Regardless, it becomes even more sad when taking into account that most if not all classic Zelda enemies use their more modern designs for the Spirits. The only Zelda Spirits that use pre-OoT artwork are NES Link, Aghanim, Marin and the Wind Fish. That pales in comparision to OoT onwards, who got the lion's share of Zelda Spirits.
The problem there might be that Nintendo and Sakurai possibly consider Ganondorf = Ganon regardless of appearance in conjuction with Ganon not being given much room to himself.* As harsh as it is (and believe me, I'd love to see a trident wielder and a different take on the superheavy zoner that's not as linear as K. Rool turned out to be), there's a strong possibility that they don't see (S)NES Ganon as distinct from say OoT / TP Ganon, or even Calamity Ganon.
Which, I'll reiterate, sucks because it equals wasted potential. Nintendo does have the option to bring it back and let the other Ganon variants rest, but they choose not to for whatever reason.
Even with Calamity Ganon - he got a humanoid form in Age of Calamity, which might signal a continuation re: how interconnected the more human / more beastly sides of Ganon are to each other.
Doesn't really change that the beastly form of Ganon has never been playable in Smash. And that's what we want. The worst part is we don't even have the convenience of a controllable Final Smash to somewhat fix that, like with Giga Bowser in general. You still control him even in Ultimate, though far less than normal. And he was created specifically for Smash(based upon Giant Bowser, but still is a Smash OC in the end).
And yes, the most iconic is the ALTTP Classic Ganon. He's the original Ganon design that is the most recognizable. The NES ones are notable too, but they weren't really characterized as much, and ALTTP is one of the most known games in Zelda history. The only Ganon "bosses" as a Final Smash are there because of what Ganondorf they used, not cause of any form of iconicness. Why would he turn into a different version of Ganon? It makes no sense. It's pure consistency. If they used Toon Ganondorf, Puppet Ganon would be the Final Smash if they repeated that style of "summon other form to attack".
Ganon and Ganondorf are obviously the same person, but different characters in an overall game(character just means what particular form they're in in a story. I.E. Giga Bowser is a different character from Bowser, but in Smash, they can be the same person. Ultimate also has more than one Ganondorf thanks to the Spirit Battles, so the idea that they're the same person has already proven to not make a difference. Never mind Young Link and Link, the same person, are playable in Melee. They're still different characters. For the purpose of what actually exists in Smash, every playable form is a different character, regardless if they're the same person or not). Nintendo is unlikely to think of it that way, except maybe in Smash at most. To note, I do not think they'd have Ganon as DLC. Sakurai I can see eventually adding a playable Ganon, since he likes alternate forms and thinks they're interesting in itself. But like Ridley, he might view Ganon at this time as more of a boss character(not so much on the "too big" front, though).
I do agree with you that Nintendo really doesn't care all that much, of course. Since they're the same person, how they're used makes no difference. If they're actually running out Ganondorf lately for a humanoid Ganon, that's not that odd either. Also, keep in mind Ganon was already bipedal from the start, being basically not an actual "beast" until Twilight Princess anyway. He's just based upon an animal design(pig or bulldog. Beast makes sense in that context), hence why fans like to use the term Beast to refer to any form of Ganon that isn't the actual Gerudo. Even then, Ganon's first humanoid form was Agnahim(though the various non-canon comics sometimes have him a person unrelated who was possessed, instead of being Ganon in a human form).
Demon King Ganon is his more correct title, though I'm pretty sure that's later reused for Demise, namely to connect them together. Also, in that sense, Demise is yet another humanoid counterpart to Ganon(he has a lot; Phantom Ganon kind of, Agnahim, Ganondorf, Yuga, Demise).
Honestly, with Spirits, they can easily squeeze in tons of various forms/takes on characters without issues. There's so many missing. Porky is possibly missing even then(this entirely depends if they think didn't realize it's the empty Safety Capsule or not. But his proper form is missing either way), and there's many unique designs of note to go off of. Of course, these aren't Trophies, so a Spirit Battle is usually important. Which makes sense why so many don't have a proper Spirit. It'd require more work. Having more than one Ganon means properly tying them to a battle. Who would best represent ALTTP Ganon? Certainly not Ganondorf. Palutena could work loosely, due to having a Staff and a few similar moves. That alone is probably part of why notable designs are missing. Couldn't think of good spirit battles. Though I'll clarify I do agree that a lot of it can be due to advertising; use the latest designs when you can. And yeah, doesn't Ganondorf have three different spirits(Fighter, as in OOT, Twliight Princess normally, and his Toon version? I know there's OOT and TP).
Lloyd
+Tales of is arguably the 4th largest JRPG of all time and Lloyd specifically had a Mii costume
-Lloyd has a Mii costume and it almost certainly will return.
Y'know, Lloyd never really struck me as a widely-agreed frontrunner. Half of everyone seems to think he'll just get the Mii Costume. I think a lot of his support is just highlighted by the increased focus; Will he die, or can he pull through?
On that note, it seems like half of everyone thinks the Spirit Event and tournament is a death sentence for a Gen 8 Pokemon, to say nothing of the new Sinnoh games. Crash and Hayabusa are the only ones who really struck me as real "frontrunners," in that they're commonly predicted "safe" characters. Monster Hunter used to be a frontrunner, too, but uh..
BTW I know that now there are no more reliable leaks but at Sakurai’s last presentation, he mentions that they first thought of putting first Rex with Pyra/Mythra and if you remember that 40 name character list, it mentions Rex. Moreover, it also mentions Arthur and we got a mii costume of him. Maybe it was a simple coincidence (List:https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/user_image/8/0/3/AAe0kDAAA_Lz.jpg). If we take out already confirmed fighters, mii costumes and from that same companies, we got a list of 18 characters left:
Erdrick is only impressive if you guessed he be one of the various alts. Face or not. Otherwise, you don't have the actual character right. The character is Hero, not Erdrick. You don't get bonus points just cause you got a tiny part of the character but completely mistook the Brave datamine. That's just an incorrect guess in the end.
...Steve is a gaming icon. He's not hard to guess, honestly. Tons of people say him as an eventuality. It's about as impressive as guessing Inkling or Isabelle at this point. And only one of those three was a high consensus as "duh" while some argue Steve or Isabelle wouldn't be a good fit. Either way, they're all easy guesses.
Banjo-Kazooie is a little impressive, but only cause people didn't think they'd get in before Steve or Master Chief(and Chief was not always in this equation).
Sora would be an impressive guess, though. There's more than enough reasons to believe he isn't possible.
If this(the original tweet of predictions) is after the Brave datamine, it's even worse, cause there was a massively incorrect consensus that Brave literally just means Erdrick is coming. It pointed to him, but not in the way people thought. Honestly, the amount of people who thought it meant just the Class is... nonexistent? Rare? I know I outright guessed Luminary as the face at some point, but I didn't think Brave meant the Class either, and I got it close too.
With what Shroob
noticed with that save data spirits, I'm definitely in the May reveal camp for CP10. It's clear that the releases have been getting quicker after Steve. And of course E3 is becoming non-existent now and Nintendo is likely wary of E3 since 2019.
Y'know, Lloyd never really struck me as a widely-agreed frontrunner. Half of everyone seems to think he'll just get the Mii Costume. I think a lot of his support is just highlighted by the increased focus; Will he die, or can he pull through?
On that note, it seems like half of everyone thinks the Spirit Event and tournament is a death sentence for a Gen 8 Pokemon, to say nothing of the new Sinnoh games. Crash and Hayabusa are the only ones who really struck me as real "frontrunners," in that they're commonly predicted "safe" characters. Monster Hunter used to be a frontrunner, too, but uh..
I extrapolated some of this frontrunner info places outside of just SmashBoards and I've seen a lot more Lloyd support outside of here.
I mentioned in the post how they rarely promote remakes with Smash characters.
My original post wasn't a definitive this is 100% the thought process of everyone, it was mostly just me getting my thoughts out
but yes you are right. There are realistically only 2 big all encompassing Frontrunners that are seen consistently. and as stated in my original, they have some stuff that is seriously going for and against them.
Erdrick is only impressive if you guessed he be one of the various alts. Face or not. Otherwise, you don't have the actual character right. The character is Hero, not Erdrick. You don't get bonus points just cause you got a tiny part of the character but completely mistook the Brave datamine. That's just an incorrect guess in the end.
...Steve is a gaming icon. He's not hard to guess, honestly. Tons of people say him as an eventuality. It's about as impressive as guessing Inkling or Isabelle at this point. And only one of those three was a high consensus as "duh" while some argue Steve or Isabelle wouldn't be a good fit. Either way, they're all easy guesses.
Banjo-Kazooie is a little impressive, but only cause people didn't think they'd get in before Steve or Master Chief(and Chief was not always in this equation).
Sora would be an impressive guess, though. There's more than enough reasons to believe he isn't possible.
If this is after the Brave datamine, it's even worse, cause there was a massively incorrect consensus that Brave literally just means Erdrick is coming. It pointed to him, but not in the way people thought. Honestly, the amount of people who thought it meant just the Class is... nonexistent? Rare? I know I outright guessed Luminary as the face at some point, but I didn't think Brave meant the Class either, and I got it close too.
Sorry, but just because it's the oldest doesn't mean it's the most iconic. When the average person pictures "Ganon" they don't immediately think of the one from LttP.
Cool. I don't want a character that already a Boss, is perfectly suited to BE a Boss, and also is ALREADY PLAYABLE(because Ganon and Ganondorf are the same character), to take a character slot from a character that's not playable, and isn't better suited to be a Boss.