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Those people very much exist.
I kinda get and understand your way of thinking, but these seem like patterns where you have to jump through hoops to justify since you ignore critical outliers. Can we even still use data from the Smash 4 days now? We are closer to 2025 than we are to 2015 when Smash 4 finished. Using what they did 6 years ago to determine what they're doing now is exactly why we never saw some characters coming in my opinion.Let me just try and explain it a little better then...
Basically. There are Five Different Times we see Smash Characters Get Revealed.
1. The General Direct
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Characters you see revealed in General Directs are either First Party Characters or Family Friendly (Teen and Under) Heroic and Recognizable Third Party Picks.
2. The Smash Direct
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Characters revealed in Smash Directs tend to normally be somewhat darker and/or villainous characters, echoes, realistic characters, or B Tier First Party Characters.
3. E3 Directs
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Originally I had forgotten about the Smash Wii U E3 Picks, but from what we have, there is a pattern. (Small Sample size, but E3's don't come often.) While Daisy, Wii Fit, and the Mii's are the generally accepted "Forgotten Picks" Of these Reveals. What we're left with is A Retro Characters Generally more popular in the West () Paired with a Modern Characters Generally more popular in the East (
It's not anything I feel confident in locking in, but from the limited Data we have. That does seem to be the working pattern. Of course that'll be different this time since we're probably only getting one reveal, but more on that later...
4. Solo Events: (I might be off on a few here)
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
These are basically the Wild Card Picks, they're mainly Smash's B Tier Characters: Fire Emblem, Old Retro Characters, Minor Mario Character. Steve of course is the massive outlier to this, but when you look at the possibility he was intended to be an E3 Reveal his situation makes more sense.
5. The Big Stage (VGA)
Introduced Here:
Simply put, these are character reveals that appeal to those WAY Outside of Nintendo Circles, and more to the Casual Gamer at Large. But unless CP11 is a VGA Reveal, I doubt this will really matter.
So to sum things up.
- The Ridley Situation: Yes, he technically is an E3 Reveal, but if you look back on the 2018 Nintendo Direct. Roughly 60% of that was about Smash Ultimate, and I'd go as far to say that the reveals for everyone there counted as a Smash Direct. Unlike other characters at General Directs and E3's where they show the character and then move onto other games. Nintendo's 2018 E3 was Basically a Smash Direct. So that's why I'm counting Ridley in both categories.
- 2021 E3 Solo Reveal: Unlike the other E3's. We're probably just getting one character, and the big question is who? We have two distinct categories for what we're likely to see, but which one is it? Now like the rest of this post, this too is speculation, but I believe that Pyra/Mythra were the "Hero" of this year. They very much fit into the "Modern Character Generally More Popular in the East" Category, which leads me to assume that the E3 character will be the other side of the coin. The " Retro Characters Generally more popular in the West (
Is it a bit too specific? Probably, but considering Leaks are hardly reliable. The way I'm going about things is looking at the patterns, and while its impossible to be like "The Last character was X, therefore the next character is Y". So I'm looking at the ways in which Nintendo Reveals their characters and looking for patterns there. Could very easily be proven wrong, but this is the theory I'm testing.
Just a couple things to note.Let me just try and explain it a little better then...
Basically. There are Five Different Times we see Smash Characters Get Revealed.
1. The General Direct
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Characters you see revealed in General Directs are either First Party Characters or Family Friendly (Teen and Under) Heroic and Recognizable Third Party Picks.
2. The Smash Direct
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Characters revealed in Smash Directs tend to normally be somewhat darker and/or villainous characters, echoes, realistic characters, or B Tier First Party Characters.
3. E3 Directs
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
Originally I had forgotten about the Smash Wii U E3 Picks, but from what we have, there is a pattern. (Small Sample size, but E3's don't come often.) While Daisy, Wii Fit, and the Mii's are the generally accepted "Forgotten Picks" Of these Reveals. What we're left with is A Retro Characters Generally more popular in the West (
It's not anything I feel confident in locking in, but from the limited Data we have. That does seem to be the working pattern. Of course that'll be different this time since we're probably only getting one reveal, but more on that later...
4. Solo Events: (I might be off on a few here)
Introduced Here:
Debatable:
These are basically the Wild Card Picks, they're mainly Smash's B Tier Characters: Fire Emblem, Old Retro Characters, Minor Mario Character. Steve of course is the massive outlier to this, but when you look at the possibility he was intended to be an E3 Reveal his situation makes more sense.
5. The Big Stage (VGA)
Introduced Here:
Simply put, these are character reveals that appeal to those WAY Outside of Nintendo Circles, and more to the Casual Gamer at Large. But unless CP11 is a VGA Reveal, I doubt this will really matter.
So to sum things up.
- The Ridley Situation: Yes, he technically is an E3 Reveal, but if you look back on the 2018 Nintendo Direct. Roughly 60% of that was about Smash Ultimate, and I'd go as far to say that the reveals for everyone there counted as a Smash Direct. Unlike other characters at General Directs and E3's where they show the character and then move onto other games. Nintendo's 2018 E3 was Basically a Smash Direct. So that's why I'm counting Ridley in both categories.
- 2021 E3 Solo Reveal: Unlike the other E3's. We're probably just getting one character, and the big question is who? We have two distinct categories for what we're likely to see, but which one is it? Now like the rest of this post, this too is speculation, but I believe that Pyra/Mythra were the "Hero" of this year. They very much fit into the "Modern Character Generally More Popular in the East" Category, which leads me to assume that the E3 character will be the other side of the coin. The " Retro Characters Generally more popular in the West (
Is it a bit too specific? Probably, but considering Leaks are hardly reliable. The way I'm going about things is looking at the patterns, and while its impossible to be like "The Last character was X, therefore the next character is Y". So I'm looking at the ways in which Nintendo Reveals their characters and looking for patterns there. Could very easily be proven wrong, but this is the theory I'm testing.
Honestly, Dixie tying into Tropical Freeze would be a really great scenario in my view.
I think it definitely helped when Sakurai himself stated that he wanted Geno at one point as well, potentially reigniting the fire of hope for Geno fans up until now. Realistically speaking, however, there's a clear reason why someone like Sephiroth was chosen over a popularity-focused character like Geno. Perhaps the along the same lines of why characters like Cloud and Hero are in the game as well, and for any potential Square reps in the future who aren't Geno.
Nah, I was talking about Mia, Reyn's girlfriend. Uhg, do you all even read the expanded lore.
Clearly this means our next chatacter will be demonic. That character being...
Jokes on you, I'm dead inside!
Yeah, Nintendo probably isn't doing E3.
I completely agree. He will probably mention Torna at some point, but I'm not really sure if they would add a costume for Lora. People kinda forgets that Xenoblade 2 has a standalone expansion, which is in part natural due it's nature, but still.
I'd like to point out that Steve was probably an E3 reveal as well, or at least, he was going to be. It would match up with Hero and Banjo's dates; Double reveal at E3, one releases in Summer, the other releases in Fall. Plus, I kinda doubt Min Min could carry E3 on her own.
The Palutena reveal was an exception, not the norm. That direct had the Miis as the big reveal, as well as the amiibos. Customization was the main draw there.
This assumes the pass wasn’t orginally meant to end before June 2021 before being delayed due to COVID, which is a possibility.
Why’d you have to remind me of these monstrosities
You're not wrong, but Min Min didn't necessarily need to carry E3 on her own... because there are other Nintendo announcements that would presumably be
Ganon sorta, more of a guy who can turn into a demon if you want to get particular.
Maybe. Though, they could pull an EA and just do their own thing around the same time. When it comes to speculating for fun to guess what we see, I think it matters to look at what Ultimate has done so far at that time.
Enderman maybe counts? Bayonetta summons demons.
I think even if they aren't technically part of E3 this year they will still do something around E3 time and everyone will just lump it in with E3
In name, Byleth. They're called the ashen demon sometimes.
I feel like if we're getting a gunner, and this is 100% tinfoil hat conspiracy with no basis in reality so bear with me here, but isn't it odd that you have Banjo and Steve, 2 Microsoft characters, both(supposedly) E3 drops?..... Master Chief?
We're definitely gonna have one when they add the Demi-fiend to the roster.
My god, Sakurai described them as a distance demon too, it all makes sense now!
No you buffoon we're getting Voodoo Vince next
Enderman is like, something alien, kinda.
nah Enderman's from the End not the Nether
Toad is weird. He deserves to be in, but other characters who would be more unique take priority. Toad doesn't have much to make Sakurai jump out of his chair and say "yes, let's do this".
Is this a crossover episode? CuterChincuhahua, quite possibly the most annoying Gamefaqs user, on Twitter, shown on Smashboards?
maybe not normal Toad, but I imagine Sakurai might want to do Captain Toad for the challenge of developing a fighter that can't jump
Ganondorf does turn into Ganon and has been referred to as The Demon King. Bayonetta can summon them. Otherwise, not really.
The thing that makes Halo unlikely to me is that Master Chief is not popular at all in Japan. I don't see him in as a fighter to begin with. He doesn't really appeal to the Nintend-ish crowd to be part of the second line of characters for E3.
: Big Boyes (that are also well received in Japan): Nintend-ish gang (that isn't really very popular in Japan)
Japan hating Min Min was because of her obnoxious toolkit that's seemingly made specifically to break their entire meta, don't think that countsThe thing that makes Halo unlikely to me is that Master Chief is not popular at all in Japan. I don't see him in as a fighter to begin with. He doesn't really appeal to the Nintend-ish crowd to be part of the second line of characters for E3.
My assumptions are big phat speculation too though so I have to stress that. So far though, that's where my confidence lies in how characters get chosen at E3. I'm not confident that we'll see two characters at E3 time that aren't that big in Japan. I'm not even confident we'll get two western characters next. I'm not even that confident that we'll get more than one character by E3 time. I'm not even confident Smash Ultimate is actually a thing...
The thing about that is Byleth isn't actually a demon. That's just a name people gave them for being emotionless.
No. Halo does have a fanbase in Japan. I know because there was apparently outrage in regards to Halo 4 where the Japanese fanbase was pissed that they changed the voice actors, or at least, they changed Master Chief's seiyuu. So no, Master Chief does have a fanbase in Japan. How big, I'm not certain, but big enough that the voice actor reception was big enough to reach English websites.
So he's finally given in to the Satsui no hado...
me when i statisically prove what characters can or cant get into smash bros by loosely "researching" their popularity levels right before they get into smash brosThe thing that makes Halo unlikely to me is that Master Chief is not popular at all in Japan. I don't see him in as a fighter to begin with. He doesn't really appeal to the Nintend-ish crowd to be part of the second line of characters for E3.
My assumptions are big phat speculation too though so I have to stress that. So far though, that's where my confidence lies in how characters get chosen at E3. I'm not confident that we'll see two characters at E3 time that aren't that big in Japan. I'm not even confident we'll get two western characters next. I'm not even that confident that we'll get more than one character by E3 time. I'm not even confident Smash Ultimate is actually a thing...
MWAHAHAHA!
