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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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N3ON

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The reason ATs don't get brought up right now is self-evident. The exceptions are few and far between, and indicative of characters that have such immense popularity, it will bleed through the cracks of being largely considered deconfirmed, like Waluigi, and to a lesser extent Isaac.

And characters that got timed out in rotating casts should also be fairly self-explanatory. I mean you can keep talking about Zoroark and Sceptile and Elma and Micaiah, but good luck if they're ever getting in. And I think most people realize that, which results in discussion eventually drying up.

I get if you've not been around speculation for more than a single game, but judging popularity of characters currently seen as deconfirmed isn't going to reflect their innate demand. You have to wait until the cycle resets to get an accurate picture. Many of the ATs will become talking points again. Krystal, Ashley, Bomberman, Skull Kid, they'll all be back. In fact they'll be joined by Zero and Alucard. Same goes for the costumed characters.

Some characters do fall away over time, but just because a character isn't being talked about now doesn't mean they're done for good.
 

7NATOR

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The truth is that most vocal support for characters are really just the result of bandwagoning lol. As in, Smash fans will only vocally support most characters if there's reason to believe that they have a shot.

Character's been making recent appearances in games? Gotta support them (i.e Krystal back in the Brawl era, Ashley, insert Pokemon here, etc)
Character's been given endorsement by a company figurehead or Sakurai himself? Gotta support them (i.e Geno, Ayumi, even Banjo)
Character's been backed up by a seemingly reliable insider? Gotta support them (i.e Skull Kid)

Like Skull Kid is the perfect example of what I'm talking about, he wouldn't of gained any serious traction in the speculation scene back in 2018 if it wasn't for that fraud Loz, and once he turned out to be a fraud, the character was slowly forgotten about again.
This also makes Both Ridley and Waluigi exceptions to the rule. The thing that made them Deconfirmed/Seemed Deconfirm (Boss for Ridley, Assist for Waluigi) actually rose their Support base.

I guess it could be argued that many people find them to have a shot still though, but it's still interesting to think about
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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Whats behind that story?
So, according to Smash Speculation Veteran and Giga-Chad ChronoBound ChronoBound , Brawl's Speculation of FE newcomers was a ****ing battlefield.
Copied from the Roy Thread, Page 15:

I'm only gonna copy what's relevant to the question you asked, because Chrono's posts are loooooong (in a good way doe) so if you want to read the entire thing, you can click the link above (and you should, Chrono's speculation history posts make Smash Speculation go from angry nerds talking about polygons punching each other into a Mythological Epic)
Chronobound said:
Prior to the Brawl announcement (2004-the first half of 2006), there was a really divided opinion on who the FE newcomer for Smash Bros. should be (nearly every international lord except Eliwood who was seen as redundant due to Roy already being in, had an almost even amount of support). You had various lords competing with each other for various reasons. Lyn, Erika, Ephraim and Hector and Ike (and later on Michaiah)

Sigurd, despite being a Japan-only lord, also had a devoted and loud fanbase for his inclusion. Due to being yet another sword-wielding lord from a game released a decade ago, you would think they would have a harder time. They spent a lot of their time attacking Roy (and sometimes Ike), and say that Sigurd was planned for Smash 64 and Melee, and that it was originally going to be Sigurd in Melee until IS forced Sakurai to include Roy instead. They also said that Sigurd was Sakurai's favorite FE character and that he was popularly requested for Melee in Japan. His fanbase was nearly all driven by people who loved FE4 and the much darker tone and themes it had relative to nearly other game in the series.

None of these fanbases had a leg up over the other one. While there were a few people that asked for either one of Marth or Roy to be cut (to possibly make room for one of the above characters), most people wanted both characters to stay, and generally disdained the idea of cuts in general (the only two characters in which there existed a modest amount of support to cut were Pichu, Dr Mario, and Young Link)


At the beginning of 2007, there only existed noticeable fanbases for three potential FE newcomers. Ike, Lyn, and Sigurd were all that was left. Sigurd's fanbase was the smallest of the three, but that made up for this by how loud they were and how much they insisted Sigurd was robbed of a spot in Melee by Roy. The Ike fanbase was slowly regaining their strength due to the information that Ike was set to return in FE10.


The second half of 2007 proved to be very chaotic and war-like much like it had been a year before when Brawl was unveiled. There were a bunch of profound developments that would unfold that would drastically change the landscape for the FE character representation wars.

The Sigurd fanbase, during all this time was being depreciated, they were not being attacked by other supporters, but for most people, if a Japan-only blue-haired swordsmen were to be in, it would be Marth. Nevertheless, the Sigurd fanbase continued to use the same arguments that he was planned since Smash 64, and that he and his game were more popular than Marth in Japan.

At the beginning of August 2007, the first newcomer since the unveil in May 2006 had finally been confirmed, IT WAS IKE! The Ike fans were ecstatic and after a long fought and bitter batter for nearly two years, they were finally vindicated, and for the the supporters of other male characters in competition with a female character (Wolf vs. Krystal, Toon Link vs. Midna), it meant that perhaps Sakurai would look at other qualifications for a character besides whether they had boobs or not.

In October, two profound developments happened. One was the announcement of FE11, a remake of FE1 which had Marth as the lord. It was here that most Smash Bros. fans felt that Marth's return was now likely. The argument that Marth was "no longer relevant" or "Japan only" now no longer applied. By now the Sigurd fanbase was weakening heavily, the confirmation of FE11 and many people believing Marth was likely to return, gave people no taste for three blue-haired swordsmen. Sigurd fans tried to beat the same drums as they had all along, however, like Lyn, they too would be de-confirmed, only this time by the hands of a fan, not Sakurai.

A Smash Bros. fan translated Sakurai's pre-Melee poll, and some of the statements that Sakurai made in his pre-Melee journal.

His findings were:
1. That the only characters planned for Smash 64 that did not get in were King Dedede, Bowser, and Mewtwo.
2. That according to the pre-Melee poll, Sigurd only received a measly two votes (the same amount as Leaf), while Celice had four, and non-lord Ogma/Oguma received eight votes. Marth by far stomped every other FE character in terms of votes.
3. Sakurai brought up who his favorite FE character was. It was Nabarl/Navarre, a mercenary from Marth's games.

The publication also of sales data from Japan that showed FE3 having sold more than FE4 (as well as FE6 being the third highest selling game in the series overall), further disproved the "Sigurd is incredibly popular in Japan" argument.

Roy and Micaiah fans paraded this information around whenever Sigurd was brought up, and this permanently ended the Sigurd fanbase. Many Smash Bros. fans were disgusted how much of Sigurd's support was based around lies.
So yeah, that happened, TL;DR Sigurd's support base was basically making **** on the fly. There's also a lot of other stuff as to how Lyn in Smash disscssions were FILLED with what you can basically call Simps AND Weebs (Wimps, if you will) the Black Knight having SOME support but being overshadowed by Michaiah, (ironically he would end up as an AT in Ultimate) MUH FEMALES being really obnoxious due to Sakurai putting ZSS before Ridley, Roy actually being talked about and so on. It's a really good read, and it is an example as to how Smash Speculation tends be as unpredictable as the roster itself, but since this is mostly relegated to Internet Forums and Websites like Youtube (where you are likelier to find trailers instead of speculation videos) this is forgotten and left to rot in the eternal dust of time.

There's also **** like the infamous Krystal Leak, which is layered in 20 layers of Irony.
 
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Shroob

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I found this tier list of what reactions would be like if these characters got into Smash as DLC:
View attachment 318121
Lloyd is one of those characters that I'm not sure how people will really react.



On one hand, he's a character that's been discussed since Brawl, and would give Namco a 2nd rep

On the other hand, he'd be the 3rd sword user in a row from an rpg

On my nuclear-waste spawned 3rd hand, I'd wager most people aren't Brawl old guards, so the reaction towards him would probably be a lot more negative
 
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Merengue

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With Ultimate coming to an end of its run. What characters do you guys felt we're screwed over but overall should have been in the game?

I know the most obvious ones that comes to mind are Shadow, Isaac, Waluigi, Ashley, Skull Kid, and Bomberman, but who else do you feel got axed?
Porky Minch, Elma, Isaac, Waluigi, zelda character that isnt a clone, geno
 

N3ON

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I found this tier list of what reactions would be like if these characters got into Smash as DLC:
View attachment 318121
Creator seems like a Hollow Knight fan.

What a **** state of affairs to be in if we get Crono from freaking Chrono Trigger and the main reaction is mild annoyance.

So, according to Smash Speculation Veteran and Giga-Chad ChronoBound ChronoBound , Brawl's Speculation of FE newcomers was a ****ing battlefield.
Copied from the Roy Thread, Page 15:

I'm only gonna copy what's relevant to the question you asked, because Chrono's posts are loooooong (in a good way doe) so if you want to read the entire thing, you can click the link above (and you should, Chrono's speculation history posts make Smash Speculation go from angry nerds talking about polygons punching each other into a Mythological Epic)


So yeah, that happened, TL;DR Sigurd's support base was basically making **** on the fly. There's also a lot of other stuff as to how Lyn in Smash disscssions were FILLED with what you can basically call Simps AND Weebs (Wimps, if you will) the Black Knight having SOME support but being overshadowed by Michaiah, (ironically he would end up as an AT in Ultimate) MUH FEMALES being really obnoxious due to Sakurai putting ZSS before Ridley, Roy actually being talked about and so on. It's a really good read, and it is an example as to how Smash Speculation tends be as unpredictable as the roster itself, but since this is mostly relegated to Internet Forums and Websites like Youtube (where you are likelier to find trailers instead of speculation videos)

There's also **** like the infamous Krystal Leak, which is layered in 20 layers of Irony.
There was all that stuff to varying degrees, but it was largely Lyn v. Ike, and people worried that Marth and Roy would get replaced.

This also makes Both Ridley and Waluigi exceptions to the rule. The thing that made them Deconfirmed/Seemed Deconfirm (Boss for Ridley, Assist for Waluigi) actually rose their Support base.

I guess it could be argued that many people find them to have a shot still though, but it's still interesting to think about
Not really though. Ridley's popularity predates his boss role, and him getting revealed as a boss usually happened towards the end of the cycle (especially when you don't take the silhouette at face value) and Waluigi's popularity would've continued to grow exponentially had he not been deconfirmed right at the beginning.

One character that did get more popular by being deconfirmed was Spring-Man. Before he got punched in the face in that trailer people were largely complaining about him, and afterwards there was a big sentiment that he got shortchanged, and will get in next from ARMS. If that ever happens.
 

Yiptap

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Ever since I quit watching Blocked Content, I've been out of touch with the Smash leaks nowadays. What is this Color Theory that's been going around recently?
 

SirCamp

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The reason ATs don't get brought up right now is self-evident. The exceptions are few and far between, and indicative of characters that have such immense popularity, it will bleed through the cracks of being largely considered deconfirmed, like Waluigi, and to a lesser extent Isaac.

And characters that got timed out in rotating casts should also be fairly self-explanatory. I mean you can keep talking about Zoroark and Sceptile and Elma and Micaiah, but good luck if they're ever getting in. And I think most people realize that, which results in discussion eventually drying up.

I get if you've not been around speculation for more than a single game, but judging popularity of characters currently seen as deconfirmed isn't going to reflect their innate demand. You have to wait until the cycle resets to get an accurate picture. Many of the ATs will become talking points again. Krystal, Ashley, Bomberman, Skull Kid, they'll all be back. In fact they'll be joined by Zero and Alucard. Same goes for the costumed characters.

Some characters do fall away over time, but just because a character isn't being talked about now doesn't mean they're done for good.
Also a character not being speculated just isn’t an indictment of their popularity anyway. People will speculate all the time, but people are also usually reigned in somewhat by what they see as viable. No one wants to invest emotionally in something that has no chance. Whether that be because the character is tertiary in their series, from a company not on good terms with Nintendo, only available in one region officially, or is from a rotating cast and no longer relevant commercially like you mentioned. Those characters can still be popular generally, just not in the context of Smash speculation.
 

Siggy88

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This also makes Both Ridley and Waluigi exceptions to the rule. The thing that made them Deconfirmed/Seemed Deconfirm (Boss for Ridley, Assist for Waluigi) actually rose their Support base.

I guess it could be argued that many people find them to have a shot still though, but it's still interesting to think about
Oh my God, I actually just had war flashbacks about Ridley being in the clouds. I can't remember if it was a running joke or people were really that delusional and desperate.
 

BlondeLombax

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Ever since I quit watching Blocked Content, I've been out of touch with the Smash leaks nowadays. What is this Color Theory that's been going around recently?
Someone on the thread has been tinkering with a program that gives us a guess to the next fighter based on the background colors on the website, the current one being pink. Honestly, I don’t really see much merit to it, it’s just something they probably did for fun.
 
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N3ON

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Also a character not being speculated just isn’t an indictment of their popularity anyway. People will speculate all the time, but people are also usually reigned in somewhat by what they see as viable. No one wants to invest emotionally in something that has no chance. Whether that be because the character is tertiary in their series, from a company not on good terms with Nintendo, only available in one region officially, or is from a rotating cast and no longer relevant commercially like you mentioned. Those characters can still be popular generally, just not in the context of Smash speculation.
True, Smash speculation has never been something to equate external popularity with. If it was they'd be throwing parades for Geno down the street.

There are many lenses characters pass through that result at whatever resting Smash popularity or lack thereof they have at any given time.
 

SneakyLink

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Here's a question based off the POTD for tonight:


These characters (and :ultincineroar:) take damage while swimming, who do you think could be added to have the same condition?
 
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Fluttershy64

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So, according to Smash Speculation Veteran and Giga-Chad ChronoBound ChronoBound , Brawl's Speculation of FE newcomers was a ****ing battlefield.
Copied from the Roy Thread, Page 15:

I'm only gonna copy what's relevant to the question you asked, because Chrono's posts are loooooong (in a good way doe) so if you want to read the entire thing, you can click the link above (and you should, Chrono's speculation history posts make Smash Speculation go from angry nerds talking about polygons punching each other into a Mythological Epic)


So yeah, that happened, TL;DR Sigurd's support base was basically making **** on the fly. There's also a lot of other stuff as to how Lyn in Smash disscssions were FILLED with what you can basically call Simps AND Weebs (Wimps, if you will) the Black Knight having SOME support but being overshadowed by Michaiah, (ironically he would end up as an AT in Ultimate) MUH FEMALES being really obnoxious due to Sakurai putting ZSS before Ridley, Roy actually being talked about and so on. It's a really good read, and it is an example as to how Smash Speculation tends be as unpredictable as the roster itself, but since this is mostly relegated to Internet Forums and Websites like Youtube (where you are likelier to find trailers instead of speculation videos) this is forgotten and left to rot in the eternal dust of time.

There's also **** like the infamous Krystal Leak, which is layered in 20 layers of Irony.
Thanks so much for this post! I now remember reading a thing about Fire Emblem speculation in brawl that mention that Sigurd debate. Very interesting. Is that Krystal the once where the fans thought she would be guaranteed because her voice actress was listed for being part of brawl?
 

Yiptap

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Here's a question based off the POTD for tonight:


These characters (and :ultincineroar:) take damage while swimming, who do you think could be added to have the same condition?
Gooigi or Paper Mario? Those are the only ones who spring to mind for me (Paper Mario because paper becomes soggy when put in water).
 

N3ON

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Here's a question based off the POTD for tonight:


These characters take damage while swimming, who do you think could be added to have the same condition?
Earlier this week:
I got a question: If Smash 6/Ultimate Deluxe were to revamp its water mechanic, how should it be?
Sonic dies

Inkling dies

Charizard dies
Holy **** Sakurai reads my posts confirmed
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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Ever since I quit watching Blocked Content, I've been out of touch with the Smash leaks nowadays. What is this Color Theory that's been going around recently?
It's a theory based on how Sonic from the hit game Sonic Colors will be in Smash because Sonic and his grandson Sonic Colors are both the color blue or something i dunno i never played Watched Game Theory.

Oh my God, I actually just had war flashbacks about Ridley being in the clouds. I can't remember if it was a running joke or people were really that delusional and desperate.
You've heard of Ridley in the Clouds now get ready for:

-PACMAN ON THE CLOUDS
-GOLDEN SUN: AGE OF RATHALOS
-SKULL KID'S MAGICAL CHAIRS
-SHANTAE'S SMASHING WINDOW
-RAYMAN ON ICE.
-EVERY VOICE ACTOR IS IN SMASH! (blame Adam Howden)
-THE MYSTERIOUS TOY THAT SAKURAI BROUGHT.
-SAKURAI'S LOCKER FILLED WITH TOYS AND FIGURINES.
-Box Theory........which ended up being correct...........


(then again, i did thought that pic was a Golden Sun nod, so i can't judge)


Huh, why is Joker going shirtless and having Tattoos all over his body?

Thanks so much for this post! I now remember reading a thing about Fire Emblem speculation in brawl that mention that Sigurd debate. Very interesting. Is that Krystal the once where the fans thought she would be guaranteed because her voice actress was listed for being part of brawl?
Yeah..........that was it pretty much it, Krystal voice actress reprised her role................as a stage cameo.

Dammit, i was ready to repost another one of Chrono's epics, but i think it's redundant now.
 

volbound1700

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Lloyd is one of those characters that I'm not sure how people will really react.



On one hand, he's a character that's been discussed since Brawl, and would give Namco a 2nd rep

On the other hand, he'd be the 3rd sword user in a row from an rpg

On my nuclear-waste spawned 3rd hand, I'd wager most people aren't Brawl old guards, so the reaction towards him would probably be a lot more negative
I feel like Rayman, Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, and Lloyd would get more positive reactions that what he has them listed in the tier list. Everyone else looks about right.
 

Shroob

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I feel like Rayman, Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, and Lloyd would get more positive reactions that what he has them listed in the tier list. Everyone else looks about right.
On the flipside though, Lloyd would be the 3rd "Anime swordsman" in a row.



To us hardcore Smash speculators, it'd be like "Wow, we've talked about this guy since Brawl. Neat."

To the 99% rest of the online fanbase, "REEEEEEEEEE ANIME SWOOOOOOORDSSSSSSSS."
 
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Idon

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"They wouldn't give some intern the full roster to design a pattern for."

"There could be more on the back."

"It's just a mockup."



And yet here I was, knowing it was true.... and neither character super interested me.

View attachment 318128
"NINTENDO HAS WORKED IN VIDEOGAMES FOR 40 YEARS! THERE'S NO WAY THEY'RE STUPID ENOUGH TO SPOIL THE REMAINING AMOUNT OF CHARACTERS ON A ****ING PROMOTIONAL BOX MONTHS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE!"
Nintendo:
 
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7NATOR

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What a **** state of affairs to be in if we get Crono from freaking Chrono Trigger and the main reaction is mild annoyance.
I'm confused on what exactly this means. do you mean this in a good or bad way

I know Chrono Trigger is a Legendry RPG game for people, But I'm thinking he gonna get alot of hate since I bet many people aren't gonna be familiar with him, and just see him as 2nd Hero with Katana.
 

Fluttershy64

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It's a theory based on how Sonic from the hit game Sonic Colors will be in Smash because Sonic and his grandson Sonic Colors are both the color blue or something i dunno i never played Watched Game Theory.


You've heard of Ridley in the Clouds now get ready for:

-PACMAN ON THE CLOUDS
-GOLDEN SUN: AGE OF RATHALOS
-SKULL KID'S MAGICAL CHAIRS
-SHANTAE'S SMASHING WINDOW
-RAYMAN ON ICE.
-EVERY VOICE ACTOR IS IN SMASH! (blame Adam Howden)
-THE MYSTERIOUS TOY THAT SAKURAI BROUGHT.
-SAKURAI'S LOCKER FILLED WITH TOYS AND FIGURINES.
-Box Theory........which ended up being correct...........


(then again, i did thought that pic was a Golden Sun nod, so i can't judge)



Huh, why is Joker going shirtless and having Tattoos all over his body?


Yeah..........that was it pretty much it, Krystal voice actress reprised her role................as a stage cameo.

Dammit, i was ready to repost another one of Chrono's epics, but i think it's redundant now.
Gotcha and looking back at the Brawl Krystal thread is very interesting. They went from "x days till we all get to play as Krystal!", to their reaction of the roster being leaked and then to their reaction/rage of Krystal not even being playable. It does show that smash fans have the same reaction in 2008 that smash fans do now.
 

MamaLuigi123456

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Oh just do it. Man, the Brawl speculation days were something magical. 8 years of waiting would do that to people, I suppose.

Also, Rayman on Ice? I think I missed that one.
Wasn't that ice theory Rayman being frozen in one of the ice clusters in Battlefield's background or something?
I seem to recall Rayman's head being seen in the clouds at the end of King K. Rool's trailer too
 
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PLATINUM7

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On the flipside though, Lloyd would be the 3rd "Anime swordsman" in a row.



To us hardcore Smash speculators, it'd be like "Wow, we've talked about this guy since Brawl. Neat."

To the 99% rest of the online fanbase, "REEEEEEEEEE ANIME SWOOOOOOORDSSSSSSSS."
Announce Scrimblo Bimblo before them as a palate cleanser.
 

JustKindaBoredUKno

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Here's a question based off the POTD for tonight:


These characters (and :ultincineroar:) take damage while swimming, who do you think could be added to have the same condition?

I mean...

Master Chief dies in the water in all his games.
 

skylanders fan

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Here's a question based off the POTD for tonight:


These characters (and :ultincineroar:) take damage while swimming, who do you think could be added to have the same condition?
Luffy
 

Noipoi

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"They wouldn't give some intern the full roster to design a pattern for."

"There could be more on the back."

"It's just a mockup."



And yet here I was, knowing it was true.... and neither character super interested me.

View attachment 318128
It was so damn weird having one of my favorite Pokémon be the center of a major smash theory.

One everyone hated.

Fitting for a character everyone hated :101:
 
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