I'm a bit tired of the circular "how many characters at E3" discussion so I'll tangent to something slightly related - if we do only get one character at E3 after all, how do you think your expectations would change moving forward into the final character? It's probably important to keep that in mind looking ahead as a backup if we're still in this.
Obviously it depends on who is revealed, but let's just assume for the sake of discussion it doesn't directly disqualify or hurt any of the characters you currently have on your radar... but it wasn't one of your predictions. My perspective is likely a pretty common one, but I'd probably give up on western third parties if they fail to appear at E3 seeing how it's the prime time for a character like that to appear... Steve being a notable exception, but after all there was no E3 to speak of last year. Like, I think Chief has a great chance of appearing at E3, but if he doesn't show up there of all places I heavily doubt he'd be coming.
At large I suspect a lot of discussion would revolve around smaller third party picks and more dominantly trying to crack the code of which Nintendo character could close things out. That discussion already exists, but I anticipate that it would completely dominate speculation until we get an answer. Personally I'd still hold onto my speculation about an additional SEGA character.