To be fair, we caught on in time to predict Rex, and we would've been right if the Switch was strong enough to handle all the polygons. I'm counting Pyra and Mythra as a win, because either way we were still predicting an XC2 rep.
The problem is that we've exhausted all the obvious second-chancers. Monster Hunter matched up with Final Fantasy not having much content, and look where we are now. Decidueye was dropped in favor of Incineroar, Hayabusa was explicitly deconfirmed by the devs, and Porky doesn't have much going for him beyond the lack of Spirit, which is seeming especially weak now that Spirits are confirmed to be promotable. I'm thinking that the last two characters, or at least one of them, won't fit in with the Second Chance Theory.
There's more characters that could fit into Second Chance theory I have in mind. Of course you said obvious so on that front, then yeah the options are kind of exhausted
FP2 has been silent for leakers, even on 4chan or gamefaqs. You still have some text leaks but they all got destroyed by Pyra/Mythra.
Really, Steve was just ""leaked"" by Vergeben two years before his inclusion, and if you want to push you could include Sephiroth who was in his list of Square characters. But I seriously doubt he or anyone else knew he would be in another DLC pack.
The same situation as post Ryu in Smash four. Just waiting. With no hints. Just us. Without any indication or leaks for Smash speculation.
We are
On Smash 4 DLC, we would have been completely in the dark if the Dev Team hadn't messed up and had Data on Ryu and Roy in one of the update files
In regards to a leak, you can separate how they get their flow of Info into 4 main categories
-Nintendo Messed up (Belmonts, Terry)
-The Law/Negotiation part of Nintendo or another Company (Hero, Banjo)
-The Tester division of Smash (ESRB, Ken, Plant)
-The Showcase Knowers (Ultimate E3, Byleth, Steve)
I think because there are probably way less testers than in Base game (Meaning it would be much easier to pin down who's leaking), It's gonna be hard to use that division to Leak
Nintendo messing up is always possible, but I think they will now try to be more cautious and make sure stuff like that doesn't leak again
Showcase Knowing is possible even through DLC, as that's how certain leakers knew about Byleth ahead of time, and how we knew about Steve ahead of time as well. the problem with this is that we only know like Minutes before the actual reveal. at that point there's not really any point to look at the leak
The Main thing to count on for DLC Leaks is the knowledge of Negotiations either from Nintendo's Side or another Company. Steve and Sephiroth were names thrown around because they had been heard, likely around in the negotiation division of either Nintendo or the home company. they were just thrown around very early around Base game/FP1, so when other characters from those Companies got in, they got largely thrown out.
The problem though is that it's hard to know first whether the info someone is spewing out about Negotiations is true, and even if it is, it's unknown about the Intricacies , the timing, etc of the actual talks and such.
It's why I pay attention to the Vergeben List despite it intentionally being only for CP5, since if they getting their info from the Negotiation front, whether the source actually works in that department, or just getting info from that department, there's likely to be more going on than what the leakers are assuming. It's the same case that happened with Steve and Sephiroth