Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Shroob]

Fair, but considering we're talking about the prospect of two characters in one presentation that's already not really the norm. Not a whole lot of reason to fasttrack an extra reveal for E3 when they aren't ready when they can just reveal one and satisfy people as is - E3 or not.

I dunno, we just gotta wait and see I guess! For now I'm just expecting a character every three months or so.

I mean, it kinda is the norm for E3 though.

Barring last year, where there flat out wasn't an E3, when Smash is involved, there hasn't been an E3 where we haven't gotten multiple reveals, this tracks through pretty much every game in the series.


There is, of course, rumors that Steve was going to be shown off in June, but that's all hearsay, nothing concrete. E3 was cancelled last year in like, March.

 

[SharkLord]

I mean, it kinda is the norm for E3 though.

Barring last year, where there flat out wasn't an E3, when Smash is involved, there hasn't been an E3 where we haven't gotten multiple reveals, this tracks through pretty much every game in the series.


There is, of course, rumors that Steve was going to be shown off in June, but that's all hearsay, nothing concrete. E3 was cancelled last year in like, March.

Regarding Steve, it's most theorizing based on the dates. Min Min was dropped in summer, like Hero, and Steve was in Fall, like Banjo. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to imagine both would be at E3; Steve carrying most of the hype, with Min Min coasting off the guessing game to get the most out of the reception towards her.

Aside from that, the norm for E3 is multiple reveals, with at least one being a heavy hitter. Here's a list of all the E3s since Smash 4, with the megatons being bolded. Note that I'm also counting major veteran reveals.

• 2013 - Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer
• 2014 - Miis, Palutena (Plus maybe Pac-Man, but he wasn't revealed until the Roundtable livestream, so he's kinda fuzzy in that regard)
• 2015 - Roy, Ryu
• 2018 - Everyone is Here, Daisy, Ridley
• 2019 - Hero, Banjo
• 2020? - Most likely Min Min and Steve

 

[JOJONumber691]

Honestly, I think people are going to be mad when this character is revealed to be not Crash lmao.

 

[Shroob]

Regarding Steve, it's most theorizing based on the dates. Min Min was dropped in summer, like Hero, and Steve was in Fall, like Banjo. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to imagine both would be at E3; Steve carrying most of the hype, with Min Min coasting off the guessing game to get the most out of the reception towards her.

Aside from that, the norm for E3 is multiple reveals, with at least one being a heavy hitter. Here's a list of all the E3s since Smash 4, with the megatons being bolded. Note that I'm also counting major veteran reveals.

• 2013 - Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer
• 2014 - Miis, Palutena (Plus maybe Pac-Man, but he wasn't revealed until the Roundtable livestream, so he's kinda fuzzy in that regard)
• 2015 - Roy, Lucas, Ryu
• 2018 - Everyone is Here, Daisy, Ridley
• 2019 - Hero, Banjo
• 2020? - Most likely Min Min and Steve

Correction. Lucas wasn't revealed at E3 2015. He was released, but he was revealed in the same Direct that showed off Mewtwo's completed model and made him available.

 

[SharkLord]

Correction. Lucas wasn't revealed at E3 2015. He was released, but he was revealed in the same Direct that showed off Mewtwo's completed model and made him available.

Oof, my bad. Mostly basing this off a quick check on the wiki. Editing the list to accommodate that.

 

[Shroob]

Oof, my bad. Mostly basing this off a quick check on the wiki. Editing the list to accommodate that.

My teachers be like:


"Can you pinpoint the release window as to when this character joined Smash?"

Me, "Yeah, duh!"

"Can you solve this math equation?"

Me, "Uhhhhhhhhhhhh nope."

 

[chocolatejr9]

My teachers be like:


"Can you pinpoint the release window as to when this character joined Smash?"

Me, "Yeah, duh!"

"Can you solve this math equation?"

Me, "Uhhhhhhhhhhhh nope."

To be fair, this is MATH we're talking about...

 

[SharkLord]

To be fair, this is MATH we're talking about...

Relevant:

 

[7NATOR]

Keep in mind

Characters are usually ready to be shown off around a Month to 2 Months before release, with their full trailer and Sakurai Presents

-Piranha Plant was revealed 2-3 months before he came out
-Hero was revealed 1 month before he came out. Imran also did say that Hero was supposed to come out the same day of the reveal, but he got delayed (He needed extra balancing)
-Banjo was revealed 3 months before he came out, and his presentation was also filmed 2 Days after Hero's
-Terry was revealed 2 months before release
-Byleth Presentation was flimed in November, 2 months before release. Imran also said Byleth was supposed to be shown off earlier, likely at the Game Awards
-Min Min's Presentation was filmed in May, Month before release

FP2 has been different in that at least with the Reveals, they've been revealing characters much closer to their release date, compared to FP1 which revealed characters months before they came out, but that could be subject to change, plus at least with CP10, they might be closer to completion than we might think

 

[chocolatejr9]

Relevant:
View attachment 310241

I can hear this image...

Anyway, I don't know if this has been asked yet, but what do you guys think will be Nintendo's "big game" this E3? Y'know, the one they wanna go all out on.

 

[Shroob]

Keep in mind

Characters are usually ready to be shown off around a Month to 2 Months before release, with their full trailer and Sakurai Presents

-Piranha Plant was revealed 2-3 months before he came out
-Hero was revealed 1 month before he came out. Imran also did say that Hero was supposed to come out the same day of the reveal, but he got delayed (He needed extra balancing)
-Banjo was revealed 3 months before he came out, and his presentation was also filmed 2 Days after Hero's
-Terry was revealed 2 months before release
-Byleth Presentation was flimed in November, 2 months before release. Imran also said Byleth was supposed to be shown off earlier, likely at the Game Awards
-Min Min's Presentation was filmed in May, Month before release

FP2 has been different in that at least with the Reveals, they've been revealing characters much closer to their release date, compared to FP1 which revealed characters months before they came out, but that could be subject to change, plus at least with CP10, they might be closer to completion than we might think

I don't doubt that CP10 is more or less done at this point.


But we're probably not getting a character this month, and why would they drop them in May when they've already thrown their hat into the E3 ring? If anything, holding off CP10 and dropping them in June makes a lot more sense than just dropping them in May would.

 

[SKX31]

Which still surprises me. I understand not being very familiar with Dragon Quest or not having played the games but, not knowing the series? That is something I have a hard time believing from people who supposedly are interested in the industry.

I mean if you're a casual gamer who just plays the games you like and do not care about the latest releases or game news, then I agree Dragon Quest isn't a series that will reach those people. But for people who are more into daily news of this world? I doubt that they never heard of DQ to be honest.

Especially if you're a Nintendo fan who has consumed Nintendo Directs. As others have said at some points, the series has been always present in these presentations when new game came out.

Arle and Puyo Puyo I definitely feel are below Dragon Quest in terms of presence in the West.

I just think a good amount of folks were in a kind of denial because they weren't interested in Dragon Quest so they went with the "no one knows Dragon Quest in the West" route. And a lie repeated a thousand times is still a lie but unfortunately, it will usually work and stick as the truth for a lot of people.

Heard of DQ, maybe, but they probably don't know enough about it to remember any faces or recurring features. Anyone into JRPGs would know of DQ, but not everyone's into JRPGs. Some people still stick with the nasty "anime bad" stigma, and for others it just isn't their speed, so it doesn't stick out to them.

Even if it's a mainstay of Nintendo Directs, if it didn't grab you in those streams, you're not going to remember them-And even if it did look cool, you still might not remember it by the time the next Direct swings around. Speaking from experience, people get hyped for games they'll just forget and not end up playing.

From what I can gather, Dragon Quest just never got a proper foothold in the West, and Final Fantasy became the archetypal JRPG over there (Especially Final Fantasy VII). Nintendo's been working to help it grow, but it's still not that big. I think people just genuinely didn't know about Dragon Quest back when Hero was revealed. They might have heard of it, but they knew jacksquat beyond the name, the importance it supposedly had, and maybe the Slimes and Akira Toriyama.

I’m inclined to agree that even if Dragon Quest isn’t the most popular thing over here most people are at least aware of the name. Though probably not beyond a certain age group like most Smash choices.

It’s quite ironic to think about but a lot of the characters chosen don’t necessarily appeal to a ton of people. Ironic because of how often we focus on how HUGE a character like Crash is when he’s only HUGE to a very specific age group.

Not just "anime bad", there are people who still complain about Hero being just made out of pure unfiltered RNG, should be banned, whatever - and as such equate Hero with that putely. Sure, those are mainly Youtube comments, but still part of the reason he's disliked: the initial controversy / furor never went completely away.

This video has quite a few of them as an example:

Arle is kind of in a weird spot where Puyo Puyo Tetris actually is recognizable in the west...by very casual audience and children. The game was a huge success on the Switch. She's just not as recognized by the (non-Smash) actual gaming community. Besides, if Crash is actually one of the last 2 picks, literally any character could be revealed alongside him and be fine no matter how sino-centric. Crash is a Western darling.

Not to be that guy, but sino refers to China, not East Asia as a whole. Calling Eastern-slanted candidates sino-centric implies they're appealing to China specifically, when Nintendo's main audience in the East Asia region is their home country Japan. Though, Nintendo does have some Chinese presence, so they hypothetically could add an actual sino-centric rep. SKX31 is probably able to answer any questions regarding that, being the Nintendo foreign market man and all.

What makes me kinda question things is that there's a lack of precendence outside the major regions. Unlike say the PC / mobile industry (both of which are everywhere these days, even in countries where agressive power cutting is a thing. Getting a decently powerful mobile phone is not difficult.) Nintendo's played things very cautiously when it comes to regions they're not fully established in. Nintendo have only had safe presence in Japan, Americas, Europe and ANZ* for the past few console generations - as evidenced by the fact that Nintendo of Korea were forced to lay off 80 % of its employees as recently as 2016. It illustrates pretty well that Nintendo's heavily dependent on a consistent fanbase willing to buy consoles.


As for China specifically, the fact that Nintendo's tried since 2003 (via the iQue consoles) tells me that Nintendo views that country as very attractive (regardless of any political stuff). Nintendo released a portable N64 + their handhelds up until the 3DS via iQue before they changed tactics. Out of those 4 consoles the iQue GBA apparently sold best at... 500K. The problems for Nintendo were that they released few games for each console - the max was 14 over three years - they had a wonky ad presence at best (and outright non-existent at worst) and a lot of people thought the iQue consoles were unofficial pirate stuff**.

So they changed tactics. First they attempted to release Wii games to the Nvidia Shield there... only 4 games were ported over. Again, with practically no ad presence to speak off. Woo. Nintendo briefly considered going solo... but then Tencent came into the picture during 2017 / 2018. I'm not entirely sure who initiated the talks, but Tencent were going through a really rough patch (thanks to the government changing video game approval rules towards the stricter direction) and both corps evidently saw benefit in each others' strengths. Crucially for Nintendo, Tencent's got a Facebook-esque ad network in the country, so that looked to paper over a major weakness. While Tencent just had their overreliance exposed and saw a need to get into the console business.

So, they partnered and released the Switch officially in December 2019. They had a really slow start (thanks to only one game - NSMBU - being officially approved in the first 3 months) - but picked up steam once more games got approved. Ring Fit proved particularily successful, and helped push the Switch over the million mark - making the Switch "its [Nintendo's] first hardware hit in China". Yes, only 13 games approved and BotW is still waiting in the approval pipeline after almost 2 years. But the Chinese Switch can still play international cartridges (just with no online), making it not as much of an issue as previous official Nintendo offerings. Who were much more limited in that department.

Yes, I've brought up a certain Furukawa quote time and time again about how difficult it would be to expand in the country: Zhuge's firm estimated that the total number of consoles (Switch+PS4+Xbone) is still at the 8.5 million mark (with the Switch being at 4 million once one includes imported consoles). Which is a small amount of the estimated >685 million gamers (most of which mobile) in the country. That also goes for any other region where consoles are not big time. But I've been talking about this a lot since there's a pretty damn good chance that Nintendo gains momentum there (and perhaps elsewhere) this time around.

As for Smash... that's a big ?. Nintendo and Tencent used the base game Smash renders when they introduced the Switch in social media, which shows an interest. But I dunno if it has been even submitted for approval yet. While this is not a deathknell - most Switches and games are imported and both corps know that - at this point it's safe to say that any character yet to be released won't be timed with Ultimate officially releasing there. That doesn't disqualify Tencent either really, what with them cooperating with Nintendo on multiple fronts and LoL having a global presence. Still a bit of a wrench to any plans Nintendo could've concievably had when they locked down FP2 during late 2019.

As a final paragraph: zooming out for a more wholly encompasing view, the reason I say pretty damn good chance is that online shopping has become way more common (especially in countries where it's easier to import stuff), plus Nintendo's been keen on establishing a more thorough presence. Its Latin American presence only solidified rather recently - what with Nintendo opening official LatAm accounts a year or so back. But they've still shown willingness to expand. Now, it's not going to be a guarantee - a lot hinges on the Switch's successor(s) - but still, there's plenty of room.

That's a factor that I could see primarily affecting Smash 6 and beyond, but that's uncharted territory right now. We'll have to see, simply put.

*(Australia / New Zealand)
**(Yes, there's a longstanding grey market / piracy industry there, as with any country. This still did hurt the iQue consoles because just as there are people who look at piracy as legitimate - especially if they're looking to save money - there are also those that shun it, and that impacts word of mouth.)
***(Yes, this includes NA and EU consoles. Not in huge numbers, but still present.)

My teachers be like:


"Can you pinpoint the release window as to when this character joined Smash?"

Me, "Yeah, duh!"

"Can you solve this math equation?"

Me, "Uhhhhhhhhhhhh nope."

To be fair, this is MATH we're talking about...

Is it time for Smash Math?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I can hear this image...

Anyway, I don't know if this has been asked yet, but what do you guys think will be Nintendo's "big game" this E3? Y'know, the one they wanna go all out on.

Two words

SUPER
SWITCH

since some 4K code was found in the latest update or something like that

 

[RoboFist]

So we know Nintendo's gonna be there now? Now to move on to Phase 2: how is the Smash reveal gonna go. Will there be one or two? More importantly, will it be a big name character, or will we have another Palutena situation?

I'll be honest, I really think there will only be one Smash reveal at E3. Nintendo is coming back from a year of lockdown and I'm sure they have some big titles they'd want to finally show off. Since Smash's E3 reveals tend to be pretty big (and sometimes Twitter-breaking), I can see Nintendo playing it safe and only showing off one as not to overshadow the rest of their presentation.

But more importantly, I think the last character deserves its own Smash Ultimate Direct. I want Nintendo to treat the end of Ultimate's development like a big finale, a victory lap. I want Sakurai there to talk about how it feels to finally wrap up his magnum opus, share why he and Nintendo settled on this character, why they saved them for last, etc. Announcing the last character at E3 and then just having to wait, with no speculation or wind left in our sails, would feel anticlimactic to me.

Man...we're really getting close to the end of this wild ride, aren't we?

 

[Shroob]

I'll be honest, I really think there will only be one Smash reveal at E3. Nintendo is coming back from a year of lockdown and I'm sure they have some big titles they'd want to finally show off. Since Smash's E3 reveals tend to be pretty big (and sometimes Twitter-breaking), I can see Nintendo playing it safe and only showing off one as not to overshadow the rest of their presentation.

But more importantly, I think the last character deserves its own Smash Ultimate Direct. I want Nintendo to treat the end of Ultimate's development like a big finale, a victory lap. I want Sakurai there to talk about how it feels to finally wrap up his magnum opus, share why he and Nintendo settled on this character, why they saved them for last, etc. Announcing the last character at E3 and then just having to wait, with no speculation or wind left in our sails, would feel anticlimactic to me.

Man...we're really getting close to the end of this wild ride, aren't we?

Thank god.

 

[3BitSaurus]

To be fair, this is MATH we're talking about...

" epicmartin7 is typing..."

Speaking of, how are the color calcs going? Honestly curious here, these are always nice to look at.

 

[PeridotGX]

Man...we're really getting close to the end of this wild ride, aren't we?

Yep! Only a few short months until Smash 6 speculation starts!

 

[cashregister9]

Man...we're really getting close to the end of this wild ride, aren't we?

Yeah we are

But then In June we will get an announcement of Super Smash Bros. Ul2mate for the Nintendo 2witch and it will have 10 extra characters and it's own host of DLC

 

[SharkLord]

Not just "anime bad", there are people who still complain about Hero being just made out of pure unfiltered RNG, should be banned, whatever - and as such equate Hero with that putely. Sure, those are mainly Youtube comments, but still part of the reason he's disliked: the initial controversy / furor never went completely away.

This video has quite a few of them as an example:

Yeah, Hero's very much an anti-competitive character. Though, I was talking more about why Dragon Quest wasn't that popular when he was first announced, and I don't think the crazy RNG was a factor before the Sakurai Presents.

Two words

SUPER
SWITCH

since some 4K code was found in the latest update or something like that

If I remember correctly, that was for the normal Switch, requiring some sort of plugin, I think. The original posts are here:

usb!4kdp_preferred_over_usb30

New setting added in Switch Update 12.0. Toggles 4K 30FPS output through USB-C.

Basically, it's a setting that allows the Switch to render in 4K, with 30 FPS. This is something the current Switch model can theoretically support. It's just been non-existant in the firmware up until now.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

That's one way to avoid losing it.

A software engineer has created the world's largest playable Nintendo Switch, and has donated it to a children's hospital for the kids to enjoy. https://t.co/BjjWDBsM3M pic.twitter.com/Q9e1hm8FD9

— IGN (@IGN) April 6, 2021

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Random Idea: Morphing Battlefield. At the match, it looks like the normal Battlefield we've come to expect, but when a character gains a significant lead (such as winning by 2 stocks or KO's), the emblem on the center of the stage will become their series emblem, the stage and background will visually transform to look like an area that is emblematic of their series, and the music will change to sound like the music from that series as well*. The changes would not revert until the player lost the lead. I think it would create some hype moments, and be a neat way to make Battlefield stand out from the Battlefield forms.

Some look examples:

• Super Mario: Takes on an appearance that's a mashup of the various World 1 looks from the Super Mario Bros. series.
• Pokémon: Something that resembles early game routes complete with tall grass at the back of the stage that wild Pokémon sometimes pop out of to watch. The area where the fighters actually battle would be a paved dirt battle arena that you can find in certain areas in the series.
• F-Zero: An observation area with a race track going right through its center (players cannot interact with the track. F-Zero racers will occasionally race through.
• Robot: Looks like the desk from Super Smash Bros.'s intro, complete with dolls and Amiibo of the fighters.
• Super Smash Bros. (Mii): Straight up becomes Super Smash Bros. Melee's Battlefield.

*Would likely only apply to that particular Battlefield's theme.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Thank god.

View attachment 310244

You know, man, if you’re that burned out on Smash Speculation you could just not do it and take a break or something.

 

[SKX31]

Yep! Only a few short months until Smash 6 speculation starts!

Ah yes, the return of "Who's getting cut?" discussion. Can't wait. (Joke reworked since the original was not that well thought out)

Yeah, Hero's very much an anti-competitive character. Though, I was talking more about why Dragon Quest wasn't that popular when he was first announced, and I don't think the crazy RNG was a factor before the Sakurai Presents.

I'm not sure if I'd call him anti-competitive, but the Western competitive scene is generally very RNG-averse (except for in cases where it brings hype, like Peach getting a bomb) because of its history + how a lot of people view the "skill vs luck" debate. Most as far as I've seen are okay with at least some RNG but not "too much" (which is where the Hero debate kinda rests on - how much is too much?), and most are thankfully okay with the fact that Hero's at least not obviously broken.

Still, that was a factor in the initial reaction here in the West.

 

[Shroob]

You know, man, if you’re that burned out on Smash Speculation you could just not do it and take a break or something.

Or I could be smart and stay here and fall deeper into insanity.


Wait, isn't that a bad thing?

Ah well, so anyway Crash.

 

[7NATOR]

I don't doubt that CP10 is more or less done at this point.


But we're probably not getting a character this month, and why would they drop them in May when they've already thrown their hat into the E3 ring? If anything, holding off CP10 and dropping them in June makes a lot more sense than just dropping them in May would.

It depends on when CP11 would release

If CP11 is hypothetically releasing somewhere around August or longer, than I do expect CP10 to be held off to June

If CP11 is able to be released around June-July, than I do expect CP10 to come earlier, as I don't think they want to release 2 characters at once if they don't have too

I actually do lean towards CP11 releasing somewhere around June-July rather than later to be honest with you. but that's me. There's also the factoring of Balancing also. I believe Sakurai said somewhere that Balancing and Bug-fixing was one of the biggest things affected by the Home-Work environment, so that might affect my speculation and such

This is probably why Sephiroth was able to release so soon after Steve, but Pyra/Mythra released in March, when they could have been released earlier. The Team were working in the Studio when they were releasing Sephiroth, so they could more easily balance him, but they returned to the Home-Work environment with Pyra/Mythra

 

[ZelDan]

"Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayubasa, and Doom Slayer are total locks for Smash Ultimate!"

None of these characters make it into Smash ultimate

Speculation for the next Smash game starts

"Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayubasa, and Doom Slayer are total locks for Smash 6/Smash Ultimate port!"

 

[Technomage]

Yep! Only a few short months until Smash 6 speculation starts!

Personally, once FP2 has been finished, I'll most likely leave the speculation group until Smash 6 is revealed.

 

[Shroob]

"Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayubasa, and Doom Slayer are total locks for Smash Ultimate!"





"Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayubasa, and Doom Slayer are total locks for Smash 6/Smash Ultimate port!"

It's the circle of life.

 

[jadetheseer]

If we do get a dual reveal at E3, I’d love for it to be a Western and Eastern character like in 2019 and like somebody already said Crash and Arle would be perfect for this. But is Arle widely known enough even in Japan for people to be like “oh, that’s Arle!” like pretty much everybody would be like for Crash in the west? I’m not sure but I don’t know how popular Puyo Puyo is there.

Does anybody know of a character who has Japanese popularity equivalent to Crash’s western popularity? I really can’t think of anyone.

 

[PeridotGX]

Personally, once FP2 has been finished, I'll most likely leave the speculation group until Smash 6 is revealed.

i won't be leaving, because honestly? I don't know where I'd go. Speculation has been part of my life for the past three years, I have to have poured thousands of hours into this site.

 

[Shroob]

i won't be leaving, because honestly? I don't know where I'd go. Speculation has been part of my life for the past three years, I have to have poured thousands of hours into this site.

I'm soo sorry.

Me too.

 

[Louie G.]

But is Arle widely known enough even in Japan for people to be like “oh, that’s Arle!” like pretty much everybody would be like for Crash in the west? I’m not sure but I don’t know how popular Puyo Puyo is there.

Puyo has Sega's biggest brand recognition overseas across all age groups, surpassing even Sonic and comparable to Nintendo / Sanrio. Arle would absolutely be recognizable to a wide audience over there.

he's quick to point out it doesn't necessarily correlate to game sales but, according to Hosoyamada, Puyo Puyo has bigger brand awareness across more demographics/generations in Japan than any other Sega brand—like, overwhelmingly so, in the same ballpark as Sanrio, Nintendo, etc

— GSK | https://cohost.org/gosokkyu (@gosokkyu) September 13, 2019

Puyo Puyo Tsu was one of the biggest arcade games of its time going head to head with the likes of Street Fighter 2 and even gaining a fairly dedicated competitive scene. The franchise was so big during the 90s that there was almost a Puyo theme park.

Did you know that in the 90s, Puyo Puyo was so popular in Japan that they almost made a Puyo Puyo Land theme park? Here are some of the sketches of what it would have looked like: pic.twitter.com/P0eHVM2nnW

— SEGAbits.com 💥 SEGA News (@SEGAbits) November 6, 2019

 

[Technomage]

i won't be leaving, because honestly? I don't know where I'd go. Speculation has been part of my life for the past three years, I have to have poured thousands of hours into this site.

Hmmm, good point. To be honest, I have been spending quite a bit of time on these forums due to getting bored with/losing interest in many other things (well, other than Smash).

 

[SharkLord]

If we do get a dual reveal at E3, I’d love for it to be a Western and Eastern character like in 2019 and like somebody already said Crash and Arle would be perfect for this. But is Arle widely known enough even in Japan for people to be like “oh, that’s Arle!” like pretty much everybody would be like for Crash in the west? I’m not sure but I don’t know how popular Puyo Puyo is there.

Does anybody know of a character who has Japanese popularity equivalent to Crash’s western popularity? I really can’t think of anyone.

If we're disregarding the West and focusing entirely on Japan, Sakura Shinguji (Who I keep wanting to type out as "Sakurai" god dangit). Sakurai Wars was bloody everywhere, from the games, to the anime, to the themed cafe, to the many, many stage shows. Heck, it was even voted the highest out of Sega's brand investment, as well as franchise revival (Which actually did happen, with the 2019 game). From a global standpoint it's rather limited, but if we just want a specifically Japan-appeal rep, Sakura Wars.

On a similar note, Reimu Hakurei, though in a more unorthodox manner. Unlike most games, which rely on raw sales and marketing, the Touhou Project got where it is because of the fanworks and osmosis. It's run by one guy, ZUN, who just tosses you the keys from his infinite supply of keys to hand out to anyone who wants them. This lets the series spread everywhere, from fan mangas to... Uh...

...Whatever the %$#@ this is.

Anyways, Touhou's in a weird place where you've probably seen a a character from it or heard a song, but you don't actually know it's from Touhou until someone points it out to you. Still, Touhou's spread all over the place, to the point that it got a crossover with Hello Kitty. Why's this important? Well, Hello Kitty is second only to Pokemon in terms of profit, so Touhou getting a crossover with that is huge. On the topic of crossovers, it also got an appearance in a Don-Chan game, alongside Ace Attorney, Monster Hunter, Yo-Kai Watch, and Kirby.
Aside from games, I believe there's a themed cafe with Touhou artwork (I'll have to double-check that, though, so don't quote me), and ZUN's recent interview was publicly livestreamed in the Japanese trains.
It's at least got a cult following in the West, though the localization is rather unorthodox and fan-driven like the rest of the series. It should be enough to make sure there's some recognition in Western audiences, but still not nearly as much as in Japan. So yeah, bottom line it that Touhou's %$#@ing HUGE in Japan and I think it fits the criteria of your question

 

[chocolatejr9]

i won't be leaving, because honestly? I don't know where I'd go. Speculation has been part of my life for the past three years, I have to have poured thousands of hours into this site.

It hurts, but you gotta move on eventually. Considering this is Smash we're talking about, it might be better for your health, too.

 

[Perkilator]

The Nintendo content we have for DLC is kinda...odd. You'd think Nintendo would go all out with the franchises of theirs that've been in the Fighters Passes.

We have a satisfactory amount of ARMS tracks, but...that's really it. Three Houses is missing songs like:

• Tempest of Seasons
• Roar of Dominion
• Shambhala (Area 17 Redux)
• ESPECIALLY God-Shattering Star
• Indomitable Will

And that's just the music. This is just me, but you'd think (at the very least) Byleth's and Min Min's Spirit Boards would have 16 Spirits each. Here's who I'd add as Spirits:

Spoiler: Byleth

	1. Ashe Class: ★ Type: Support (Grab) Cost: ⬡⬡ Effect: Fog Immunity Puppet Fighter: (Color 3) Stage: Temple (Battlefield) Music Track: Tempest of Seasons Match: Stock (1) Hazard: Fog Conditions: The stage is covered in fog The enemy favors neutral specials The enemy is easily distracted by items
	2. Linhardt Class: ★ Type: Support (Shield) Cost: ⬡ Effect: Slumber Immunity Puppet Fighter: (Color 3) Stage: Garreg Mach Monastery (Reception Hall) Music Track: Tempest of Seasons Match: Stock (1) Hazard: Slumber Floor Conditions: The floor is sleep-inducing The enemy favors special moves The enemy's magic attacks have increased power
	3. Death Knight Class: ★★ Type: Support (Neutral) Cost: ⬡ Effect: Death's Scythe Equipped Puppet Fighter: Metal (Color 8) Stage: Music Track: Shambhala (Area 17 Redux) Match: Stock (1) Conditions: The enemy is metal The enemy starts the battle with Death's Scythe

Spoiler: Min Min

	1. Lola Pop Class: ★★ Type: Support (Shield) Cost: ⬡ Effect: Shield Durability ↑ Puppet Fighter: (Color 6) Stage: Town and City Music Track: Via Dolce Match: Stock (1) Conditions: The enemy shields often The enemy's Final Smash meter charges quickly
	2. Misango Class: ★ Type: Support (Neutral) Cost: ⬡ Effect: Poison Damage Reduced Puppet Fighter: (Color 7) Minion: Tiny (Color 4) Stage: Temple (Battlefield) Music Track: Temple Grounds Match: Stock (1) Hazard: Poison Floor Conditions: Defeat the main fighter to win The floor is poisonous
	3. Springtron Class: ★★ Type: Support (Attack) Cost: ⬡⬡ Effect: Franklin Badge Equipped Puppet Fighter: Metal (Color 7) Stage: Boxing Ring Music Track: Sparring Ring Match: Stock (1) Conditions: The enemy reflects projectiles The enemy has decreased jump height when badly damaged Hostile Assist Trophies (Spring Man)
	4. Dr. Coyle Class: ★★★ Type: Primary (Grab) Slots: ⬡⬡⬡ Effect: Jump ↓ Puppet Fighter: (Color 6) Stage: Music Track: [NAME REDACTED] Match: Stock (1) Conditions: The enemy doesn't like to jump The enemy falls slowly Electric attacks are effective against the enemy
	5. Hedlok Class: ★★★ Type: Support (Grab) Cost: ⬡ Effect: Hyper Smash Attacks Puppet Fighter: Metal (Color 7) Minions: Metal x2 (Color 8) Stage: Spring Stadium (Omega) Music Track: ARMS Grand Prix Final Battle Match: Stock (1) Conditions: Defeat the main fighter to win The enemy () faovrs side specials The enemy's () smash attacks have increased power
	6. Biff Class: ★★★★ Type: Primary (Neutral) Slots: ⬡⬡⬡ Effect: N/A Puppet Fighter: (Color 8) Minion: Tiny (default) Stage: Spring Stadium Music Track: ARMS Grand Prix Official Theme Song Match: Stock (1) Conditions: The enemy (Min Min) will suddenly have a Final Smash The enemy (Pikachu) tends to avoid conflict Hostile Assist Trophies (Spring Man)

 

[Pillow]

If we do get a dual reveal at E3, I’d love for it to be a Western and Eastern character like in 2019 and like somebody already said Crash and Arle would be perfect for this. But is Arle widely known enough even in Japan for people to be like “oh, that’s Arle!” like pretty much everybody would be like for Crash in the west? I’m not sure but I don’t know how popular Puyo Puyo is there.

Does anybody know of a character who has Japanese popularity equivalent to Crash’s western popularity? I really can’t think of anyone.

Not sure about Japanese Smash speculation specifically but Touhou, Vocaloid, Fate, Taiko no Tatsujin, Momo Densetsu, and Idolmaster are popular series that are mostly popular within Japan rather than globally. But Japanese Smash fans might view these characters the same way we see series like Mortal Kombat or GTA, being too irrelevant in the opposite region to be viable in Smash.

 

[PacificFun]

Nintendo at E3 and the ramp up of Tomb Raider 25th anniversary crossovers is how Lara Croft wins. She was in Brawhalla, Rainbow Six Seige, Astro's Playroom, Fortnite and soon to be Final Fantasy Online. Dew it. Dew it. Dew it. Dew it.

 

[Louie G.]

This is just me, but you'd think (at the very least) Byleth's and Min Min's Spirit Boards would have 16 Spirits each.

The way they handled ARMS is pretty baffling to me. I get that they focused mostly on the original roster, but it's just weird that they didn't bother to fill the rest of the fighters out through at least those spirit battles. After all, all of their stage themes are already in the game and I can't fathom spirits would be particularly taxing to incorporate. Nor would cameos on the Spring Stadium monitors, but I digress. It's just odd.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Nintendo at E3 and the ramp up of Tomb Raider 25th anniversary crossovers is how Lara Croft wins. She was in Brawhalla, Rainbow Six Seige, Astro's Playroom, Fortnite and soon to be Final Fantasy Online. Dew it. Dew it. Dew it. Dew it.

You DO realise I used the appropriate Simpsons meme for this kind of thinking, right?