ChronoBound
I read your essay. My state had a big blizzard and so I've spent the last few days dealing with that; I was too exhausted to read it at first but I just finished it.
I think your analysis of the speculation trends was excellent and completely accurate. I remember during post-Brawl speculation I'd dream up "rule-free" roster picks that had characters from Sony, Microsoft and other companies, only to be dismissed because they had no hope of ever joining. Not even Rayman. It's crazy how much things have shifted. Years later, during pre-Ultimate speculation I'd point at Cloud and Snake, as well as the Celebration of Gaming to justify speculation about Ratchet & Clank. I knew their odds were next to non-existent, and I know what kind of....."dynamic" Sony and Insomniac Games have with Nintendo, but I stopped caring. I was more interested in having fun with the idea than seriously speculating on their chances. It's just crazy that while those 2 and some of my other rule-free choices won't make it, they no longer seem unreasonable. Even Ori now has a legit shot since Microsoft and Nintendo have a working relationship.
It's completely true that the fanbase's tastes have changed; my Top 3 requests are simply Dixie, Crash and Rayman. I've already gotten my Diddy Kong, Bowser Jr., K. Rool, Little Mac and Mega Man. Now I look at the characters people speculate on and go "Sure, why not." I personally don't have many characters I want, and the handful I do want aren't even Nintendo.
As a side note though, I knew Shorts had passed away years ago but I didn't know it was due to a car crash; back in 2016 I visited the pages of people who were regulars in the Official SSB4 Discussion thread to see what they've been up to. When I got to Shorts's page I saw nothing but mournful comments and pieced it together. I didn't know exactly what happened until today; it's a weird feeling to get the answer to a question I wondered about 4 years later, long after I stopped pondering. Rest In Peace, Shorts.
It's really heartwarming that Dixie stayed strong despite all her circumstances, but it's also bittersweet. I'm keeping a cautiously optimistic eye on what fatmanonice has said in regards to DK having a big game on the way, but as for Dixie's chances in Smash, I'm still skeptical. Years ago, I THOUGHT I had given all I could to show support for Dixie, but Ultimate's debut showed me I barely did anything, so I cooked up more ideas. I'm happy with what I've done now and there'll be more, but I'm also really glad I'm not the only fan showing support in unique ways. Speculating on a character I really want has been stressful and disappointing, but not being the only person who wants Dixie, as well as not being the only one to come up with ideas, is really reassuring. Less pressure I suppose. We're doing a solid job keeping Dixie "alive" but we're at the point where Nintendo's gotta do something.
After this DLC cycle, I probably won't be speculating anymore...even though I barely bother to do it now. I'm cracking 30 and there's other stuff I'll spend time on. Just for fun though I'll probably post moveset ideas for random characters who may or may not ever show up in Smash. I would like to be excited about an upcoming DK game though, but that's up to Nintendo.