Official Competitive Character Impressions 2.0

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ESAM's opinion on Robin has more to do with cognitive bias than anything else. Both him and MVD are from a region where they have a lot of experience against the character, and Pikachu has a really good MU against the character (supposedly). He's been bullish on the character for years now, and Ultimate is no exception. You're not going to find an objective evaluation of the character under those terms.

His top 20 looks decent, though I'd swap Wario and Fox.
 
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ESAM is a good player, but a terrible theorycrafter and genuinely makes some of the worst tier lists I've ever seen. I've seen early meta 'guess' tier lists with more accuracy than ESAM's. I don't even bother paying attention to anything he puts out anymore, good player, not good info 90% of the time. I also really don't care for the condescending attitude he often keeps, nor do I agree with some of his methods / ways of going about doing things which can be outright sketchy at times.

Tbh I agree with Fatality. All tier lists are nothing more than opinionated guess lists atm, with some simply being more or less wrong than other ones. I currently do not believe a truly 'accurate' tier list exists atm.
In all seriousness. I think its pretty obvious what we can expect now when Esam puts out a tier list, so I do not see what the point of getting to wound up about this new one
  • Pikachu always being in top 5 without fail (not that Pikachu isnt very good now, but you know what I mean
  • Shulk being in top tier despite no real results backing it up (to be fair Esam is far from the only pro-player guilty of this)
  • Really questionable tier palcements based on even more questionable logic
I have to give ESAM credit for one thing is that he has self-awareness. In that heunpopular his opinions can be but plays into it and does it no matter what anyone else really thinks"#Esamopinons" . He is almost kinda like Leffen of the recent Smash titles in that he kinda embraces the snarky heel persona he has created for himself
 
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DelugeSSB

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In all seriousness. I think its pretty obvious what we can expect now when Esam puts out a tier list, so I do not see what the point of getting to wound up about this new one
Pikachu always being in top 5 without fail (not that Pikachu isnt very good now, but you know what I mean
Shulk being in top tier despite no real results backing it up (to be fair Esam is far from the only pro-player to do this) and so on.

I have to give ESAM credit for one thing is that he has self-awareness. In that heunpopular his opinions can be but plays into it and does it no matter what anyone else really thinks"#Esamopinons" . He is almost kinda like Leffen of the recent Smash titles in that he kinda embraces the snarky heel persona he has created for himself
I didn't particularly care for the old Leffen either. Acting like you're at times above people doesn't look good on anyone to me.

No matter if a top pro or just a random stranger posting on an internet forum, we're all just crusty nerds playing a video game and I think some people would do well to remember that. We all end up taking ourselves too seriously from time to time, imo.
 
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im not gonna say she wins or anything but there are characters that force characters to deviate from thier normal gameplans. snake has to track his own grenades and he has to track her down b placement as well. when snake has to track those things in addition to his own it is gonna test the snake player a lot more.

also fishing rod vs snake recovery is just oof. that can't be fun.
 

Gearkeeper-8a

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If you put content then you should expect criticism even if you are a top player, misinformation is one of the bad things of this community and thanks to social media they can spread rather fast, and making a tierlist doesn't mean that you should rank all the 72 in one go or even do all of them at all.

Top players opinions are very important but criticism is expected and more if you are one of the faces of the community because the player base look ups to you and can repeat what you said.
 

Impax

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im not gonna say she wins or anything but there are characters that force characters to deviate from thier normal gameplans. snake has to track his own grenades and he has to track her down b placement as well. when snake has to track those things in addition to his own it is gonna test the snake player a lot more.

also fishing rod vs snake recovery is just oof. that can't be fun.
The isabelle player was saying its 50-50 matchup. Which given the above, makes a lot of sense. Pocketing nikita also seemed to really hinder his ability to edgeguard.
 
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Dear Minordeth,

I just saw [top player X] post a tier list about [fighting game X]. Is it accurate?

Sincerely,

Oh, and Two.


...

Dear Twitter Fiend,

I know it’s tough to discern the veracity of information in this age of misinformation. Fortunately, I have a fairly simple method to determine the accuracy of any given tier list, especially the one you are probably referencing.

Ask yourself: Is this tier list regarding a relatively balanced cast of 70+ characters in a game with a six month old meta?

If you answered “yes” then the answer is “No.”

However, if the tier list is also ordered, change the answer to an “Lol, No.
 

PK Gaming

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Personally, I think it's more annoying when top players overrate characters.
Really? Because the latter rarely has an emotional element to it (unless your name is ESAM), whereas passion for a character you main is good, oftentimes posts defending them cross the line into "I think my character is X tier and anyone who says otherwise is wrong."
 

Thinkaman

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Really loving this Ally vs. Bocchi match. Observations:

-Snake is so slow that mine is a pain for him--he can take the time to down-tilt it, but gets punished for this enough of the time that it's quite bothersome

-Snake can't get his grab -> kill combo on Isabelle while she is planting a mine, as the mine will interrupt

-fishing rod is great against snake recovery

-pocket negates nikita and makes grenade much worse

-slingshot is great against tall, slow people (that we already knew)

-most of her kills were with Isabelle f-smash, a 14f kill move that Villager has no equivalent to


I think the last point is the one I had overlooked the most.
 
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Is fishing rod effective at getting Snake's recovery?
Considering it's a grab of sorts and Snake can be grabbed when using Cypher, I would imagine so when Snake is recovering low or at level of the stage. But when Snake is recovering high above the sky, it's unlikely to be as effective.
 
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Shaya

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Please don't **** talk any player, top level or otherwise, bad opinions or otherwise.
You analyze how/why they have that perspective, and if the conclusion is as simple as "they don't know enough about the character" -> MOVE ON TO THE NEXT POINT.
Or if you'd like to, acknowledge why someone/people in general would have that perspective then provide argument to the contrary - this ensures you come across with a respectful and neutral tone.

If all you're going to provide us is an insubstantial complaint post about a subjective opinion: you're in the wrong thread.
 
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Rizen

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Can someone please link me the Orion Stats?
Isabelle has good tools against Snake:pocket for Nikita, fishing rod and F/Bair for general zoning and Loid stops approaches. The thing is Snake is much heavier and Utilt kills early. Judging by how Ally ran into Loids a lot it looks like he didn't know the MU.
 

SwagGuy99

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Cloud at 45. I can’t even begin to imagine his reasoning for that.
Yeah I can't really imagine Cloud outside of Top 25. His recovery is really bad, sure, but he's pretty good in just about every other important way, just not as good as Smash 4. Still a really strong high tier character IMO.
 

Thinkaman

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Behold, I come bearing gifts. Shoutouts to Das Koopa Das Koopa for doing all the heavy lifting.

Smash_Stats_6-15-19.PNG


And here's a log view (with non-zero axes--warning!) to make the lower section more legible:

Smash_Stats_6-15-19_LOG.PNG


Using SSB World data as a proxy for lifetime offline tourney usage is not a precise approximation by any means, neither of player count nor player-event count--it is a substitute that is in some ways better and some ways worse. It is a VOD count, which means better players playing better characters who play more matches and are more likely to play on recorded (stream) setups are over-represented. However, this may be precisely what we want? The result is usage values with a soft, linear weight, contrasting with Das Koopa Das Koopa 's top-emphasizing weights. It might honestly be best to call this measure Character Visibility...

I combined Dark Samus, Daisy, Ritcher, and Dark Pit. (Orion Stats has not historically combined the former.) I think everyone would agree that Dark Pit's differences are far less than different custom options for the Miis, who are groups as single characters. (I do not think this can be confidently asserted for Marth, Chrom, or Ken.)

Note that Samus is hiding under Falcon--they have almost identical numbers. Mario is also hiding under Chrom.

Please note just how much a single top player can affect both measures. For example, MK Leo is over 30% of all recorded VODs of Joker, and removing him from the equation would lower Joker's win-rate by almost 8%. It would also tank his OrionStats numbers by a huge number, definitely more than half? And Joker is just an extreme case--to an extent, this is true for most characters.
 
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Yeah I can't really imagine Cloud outside of Top 25. His recovery is really bad, sure, but he's pretty good in just about every other important way, just not as good as Smash 4. Still a really strong high tier
character IMO.
I saw the vid. One of his main reasons is that you can "camp out" his limit, using an example on how he did it by recovering under from one side to the other vs a Cloud.

So yes becuase he mains a small, quick character with one of the best recoveries in the game for stalling time offstage means every character can stall out Cloud's limit, every time...

Yeaaaaahhhhhhhh
 
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At a very rough glance when looking at both charts:

Ganondorf, Ness, Inkling, Pokemon Trainer, and particularly Cloud underperform for how often they are used when compared with the trendline.

MegaMan, Wario, Lucina, Ryu, Ice Climbers, and Sheik perform better than the trendline for their usage.

Those are some very rough indications for who's over or underrated. You could go more precise (could argue say, Peach is slightly over performing) but those are the ones with big enough gaps from the trendline in both charts that I would be comfortable saying "yeah that's noticeable" Lot more factors to consider than those charts, charts aren't perfect due to where they have to get their data from, etc etc. Also keep in mind the less a character is used, the more one out-of-norm performance can impact the data.
 
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Thinkaman

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I want to clarify the role of these two measures a bit more.

A lot of balance measures depend on the murky area of player elasticity. Aka how willing and able players are to changing characters, specifically to a better one.


If players were perfectly elastic and always played exclusively the single character they perform best with, raw usage numbers would be the only balance data we would ever need.

If players exhibited zero-elasticity, and every character was represented by an exactly-equal percentage of the player-base who never changed characters, then tournament performance (or win-rates) would be the only balance data we would ever need.


Realistically, player elasticity is somewhere between zero and infinity, but definitely neither. So we try to find some intermediate measure.

Weighted, broad-inclusion tournament results like Das Koopa Das Koopa tabulates is an intelligent compromise closer to win-rates. VOD counts is an organic compromise closer to raw usage count. Looking at both together brings us further to a full picture.
 

Thinkaman

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At a very rough glance when looking at both charts:

Ganondorf, Ness, Inkling, Pokemon Trainer, and particularly Cloud underperform for how often they are used when compared with the trendline.

MegaMan, Wario, Lucina, Ryu, Ice Climbers, and Sheik perform better than the trendline for their usage.

Those are some very rough indications for who's over or underrated. You could go more precise (could argue say, Peach is slightly over performing) but those are the ones with big enough gaps from the trendline in both charts that I would be comfortable saying "yeah that's noticeable" Lot more factors to consider than those charts, charts aren't perfect due to where they have to get their data from, etc etc.
I wouldn't use the framing under/overrated, nor over/under performing. This is not an Actual vs. Expected graph.

Going back to the previous post, imagine we are considering two "forms of government" to decide who the best characters are:
  1. Everyone who enters a tournament gets 1 vote.
  2. Whoever wins the tournament gets all the votes.
Both options are bad, though I really ought to point out that the first one will consistently prove to be way, way better than the second.

OrionStats TTS is like 75% of the way from 1 to 2. SSB World VOD Count is like 25% of the way.

Both are different ways of "voting", and both are imo vastly superior than either raw measure. Try to genuinely appreciate them side-by-side, without getting distracted in some philosophical argument over which is "more true". It's data. Both sets of data are 100% true to what their own methodologies offers, and are nothing more or less.
 
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Behold, I come bearing gifts. Shoutouts to Das Koopa Das Koopa for doing all the heavy lifting.

View attachment 228137

And here's a log view (with non-zero axes--warning!) to make the lower section more legible:

View attachment 228138

Using SSB World data as a proxy for lifetime offline tourney usage is not a precise approximation by any means, neither of player count nor player-event count--it is a substitute that is in some ways better and some ways worse. It is a VOD count, which means better players playing better characters who play more matches and are more likely to play on recorded (stream) setups are over-represented. However, this may be precisely what we want? The result is usage values with a soft, linear weight, contrasting with Das Koopa Das Koopa 's top-emphasizing weights. It might honestly be best to call this measure Character Visibility...

I combined Dark Samus, Daisy, Ritcher, and Dark Pit. (Orion Stats has not historically combined the former.) I think everyone would agree that Dark Pit's differences are far less than different custom options for the Miis, who are groups as single characters. (I do not think this can be confidently asserted for Marth, Chrom, or Ken.)

Note that Samus is hiding under Falcon--they have almost identical numbers. Mario is also hiding under Chrom.

Please note just how much a single top player can affect both measures. For example, MK Leo is over 30% of all recorded VODs of Joker, and removing him from the equation would lower Joker's win-rate by almost 8%. It would also tank his OrionStats numbers by a huge number, definitely more than half? And Joker is just an extreme case--to an extent, this is true for most characters.
I have to say, I prefer the log transformed graph because it looks pretty close to linear, but the axes (not just being non-zero, but both are on the same scale when that isn't the case with the non-log transformed graph) does kind of bother me. If you don't mind, could you share some of the raw numbers? I'd like to investigate some of this myself.

On a non-mathy-talk note, I'm a bit surprised at how decent characters like Corrin, Villager, and Bayonetta are. I would have expected lower scores from them (and lower Bayo usage).
 
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Vyrnx

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If an "accurate" tier list is what you all want, you'll be waiting a long time. There's no such thing, and accuracy isn't really the point of a tier list anyway.
 
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Dabuz:ultrosalina: defeated Samsora:ultpeach: 3-2 and Ally:ultsnake: 3-2 in Smash Paramount, a tourney with a handful of notable players playing.

The set against Samsora is simply a back-and-forth set. The fact that Peach's moves stale faster due to hitting both Rosa and Luma helped out (especially at the end, where Peach's f-air got too stale and didn't get a crucial KO).

The set against Ally is even more interesting, as Ally for the most part was all over Dabuz for most of the set. However, starting at game 3, Ally slowly began to fall apart against him. Games 3 and 5 seemed like a sure win for Ally, but his playstyle and mentality both began to fall completely apart at the end of both games, which allowed Dabuz to clutch out the set overall. This, as well the Isabelle set, sort of shows that Ally is a player where his own mentality can be the make or break of the outcome of his sets.
 
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Thinkaman

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For context, here are the same graphs with Smash 4 end-of-life data plugged in.

Warning 1: The two data sets do not cover identical time periods here.
Warning 2: The log axes are non-zero and different from the log graph above. If you want to comapre the two games directly, use the non-log graphs.
Warning 3: Mii Swordfighter had zero tourney placings and thus does not appear on the log graph.

1560654378860.png


And the log graphi:

1560654366819.png


In Ultimate you can see more vibrant performance in any usage quadrant, and the absence of the gutter tier.

Edit: If you must, here is the Ultimate data with the same Performance log scale, and a proportioned scale (1/8th) of the VOD axes. Feel free to open this and the previous chart in their own tabs and flip between them.

1560654348349.png
 

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KakuCP9

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I saw Wolf's score on Orionstats and I thought it was because couldn't understand the format, but it seems like he's still standing atop of the cast still. Which leads me to ask, why isn't Wolf on people's minds as best character in the game as apposed to Snake or Joker. The nerfs he got were trivial in the long run outside of the up-b hitbox fix. His neutral game is still as top notch as ever with his punish game being relatively vicious to complement it. Outside of recovery, what weakness do he have, or what MUs does he lose that hold him back?
 

Thinkaman

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I have to say, I prefer the log transformed graph because it looks pretty close to linear, but the axes (not just being non-zero, but both are on the same scale when that isn't the case with the non-log transformed graph) does kind of bother me. If you don't mind, could you share some of the raw numbers? I'd like to investigate some of this myself.
I don't follow.

I can post the numbers somewhere. Here:

Mario 671 275
Donkey Kong 555 78.5
Link 517 147
Samus 401 82
Yoshi 652 243.5
Kirby 70 4.5
Fox 1198 550.25
Pikachu 490 172
Luigi 208 85
Ness 1179 300.5
Captain Falcon 405 83.5
Jigglypuff 101 18
Peach 1115 583.5
Bowser 558 154
Ice Climbers 85 80
Sheik 105 82.5
Zelda 391 71
Dr. Mario 115 57.75
Pichu 1159 515.75
Falco 362 96.5
Marth 215 28.5
Lucina 834 513
Young Link 605 184.25
Ganondorf 505 36
Mewtwo 153 44
Roy 618 286.25
Chrom 670 267
Mr. Game & Watch 272 93.5
Meta Knight 342 85
Pit 292 31.5
Zero Suit Samus 859 312
Wario 513 343.5
Snake 1592 626.5
Ike 735 244.5
Pokemon Trainer 1813 322.75
Diddy Kong 189 63
Lucas 234 52.5
Sonic 388 132
King Dedede 437 118.5
Olimar 915 430
Lucario 146 61
R.O.B. 655 290
Toon Link 279 104
Wolf 1668 704
Villager 172 58
Mega Man 440 316.5
Wii Fit Trainer 266 18.5
Rosalina & Luma 140 36
Little Mac 84 5
Greninja 655 325
Mii Brawler 38 12
Mii Swordfighter 140 21
Mii Gunner 63 11.5
Palutena 1408 580.5
Pac-Man 296 142.75
Robin 283 47.5
Shulk 371 166
Bowser Jr. 126 14
Duck Hunt 306 61
Ryu 50 23.5
Ken 104 29.5
Cloud 1329 180.75
Corrin 125 15.5
Bayonetta 276 79
Inkling 1519 453.75
Ridley 450 87.5
Simon 549 90.75
King K. Rool 204 25
Isabelle 169 26.25
Incineroar 287 59
Piranha Plant 144 15.5
Joker 339 171.5

On a non-mathy-talk note, I'm a bit surprised at how decent characters like Corrin, Villager, and Bayonetta are. I would have expected lower scores from them (and lower Bayo usage).
Bayo was always middle of the pack, despite some moping.

Villager too. Villager would probably be middle of the pack if not for the Isabelle splitting the vote.

Corrin, ditto, held back by other swordies being great.

On this topic, consider the echoes, Pikachu, Dr. Mario all higher than they appear by either measure accordingly as well.

I saw Wolf's score on Orionstats and I thought it was because couldn't understand the format, but it seems like he's still standing atop of the cast still. Which leads me to ask, why isn't Wolf on people's minds as best character in the game as apposed to Snake or Joker. The nerfs he got were trivial in the long run outside of the up-b hitbox fix. His neutral game is still as top notch as ever with his punish game being relatively vicious to complement it. Outside of recovery, what weakness do he have, or what MUs does he lose that hold him back?
I wouldn't call the 3 frames on Blaster to be trivial, but yes--I liked how someone put it, as Wolf "getting off with time served."

Wolf's popularity largely stims from how much easier he is to pick up than the other top tiers. And like Snake, he has a uniquely disproportionate magnetism towards really good players who have been neck-deep in competitive Smash since Brawl.
 
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I don't follow.

I can post the numbers somewhere. Here:

Mario 671 275
Donkey Kong 555 78.5
Link 517 147
Samus 401 82
Yoshi 652 243.5
Kirby 70 4.5
Fox 1198 550.25
Pikachu 490 172
Luigi 208 85
Ness 1179 300.5
Captain Falcon 405 83.5
Jigglypuff 101 18
Peach 1115 583.5
Bowser 558 154
Ice Climbers 85 80
Sheik 105 82.5
Zelda 391 71
Dr. Mario 115 57.75
Pichu 1159 515.75
Falco 362 96.5
Marth 215 28.5
Lucina 834 513
Young Link 605 184.25
Ganondorf 505 36
Mewtwo 153 44
Roy 618 286.25
Chrom 670 267
Mr. Game & Watch 272 93.5
Meta Knight 342 85
Pit 292 31.5
Zero Suit Samus 859 312
Wario 513 343.5
Snake 1592 626.5
Ike 735 244.5
Pokemon Trainer 1813 322.75
Diddy Kong 189 63
Lucas 234 52.5
Sonic 388 132
King Dedede 437 118.5
Olimar 915 430
Lucario 146 61
R.O.B. 655 290
Toon Link 279 104
Wolf 1668 704
Villager 172 58
Mega Man 440 316.5
Wii Fit Trainer 266 18.5
Rosalina & Luma 140 36
Little Mac 84 5
Greninja 655 325
Mii Brawler 38 12
Mii Swordfighter 140 21
Mii Gunner 63 11.5
Palutena 1408 580.5
Pac-Man 296 142.75
Robin 283 47.5
Shulk 371 166
Bowser Jr. 126 14
Duck Hunt 306 61
Ryu 50 23.5
Ken 104 29.5
Cloud 1329 180.75
Corrin 125 15.5
Bayonetta 276 79
Inkling 1519 453.75
Ridley 450 87.5
Simon 549 90.75
King K. Rool 204 25
Isabelle 169 26.25
Incineroar 287 59
Piranha Plant 144 15.5
Joker 339 171.5



Bayo was always middle of the pack, despite some moping.

Villager too. Villager would probably be middle of the pack if not for the Isabelle splitting the vote.

Corrin, ditto, held back by other swordies being great.

On this topic, consider the echoes, Pikachu, Dr. Mario all higher than they appear by either measure accordingly as well.
The y-axis in the first graph goes from 0 to 800, but in the log graph, it goes from 4 to 1024. It just looks bizarre to me is all. Makes interpreting the data unusually odd considering that the scale goes from multiples of 100 to powers of 2, which I thought made sense but not so much anymore.

Anyways, thank you for the numbers. I'll be sure to look into them further.
 
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Thinkaman

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The y-axis in the first graph goes from 0 to 800, but in the log graph, it goes from 4 to 1024. It just looks bizarre to me is all. Makes interpreting the data unusually odd considering that the scale goes from multiples of 100 to powers of 2, which I thought made sense but not so much anymore.
I mean, that's what logarithmic means. Not sure I follow.

Log axes also have to start at a somewhat arbitrary point, since zero isn't an option and any power of n is pretty much just as arbitrary as n^0 = 1.
 

PK Bash

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This Isabelle match is relevant to my interests...
Isabelle has good tools against Snake:pocket for Nikita, fishing rod and F/Bair for general zoning and Loid stops approaches. The thing is Snake is much heavier and Utilt kills early. Judging by how Ally ran into Loids a lot it looks like he didn't know the MU.
I dunno, he was doing a lot of right stuff like dropping C4 on Isabelle's Balloons and was well aware of Pocket shenanigans (adapted to them well too, though he never really got the payoff he deserved due to things like dair not connecting properly), and didn't simply run into that many Lloids. He just kind of caught by them, which happens vs Isabelle and isn't that strange for a character like Snake, who likes to stick to the ground and has to get close to Isabelle. I think his MU knowledge is sound enough. (To be fair, there are some anomalies, like at 12:00 when he thought Nikita had destroyed the Lloid but it actually hadn't. To my knowledge, Nikita never beats Lloid?)
---
One of the more interesting points of this MU is Snake's Dash Attack. This is potentially one of his most important tools (that isn't shield, anyway) in this MU. As a zonebreaking burst option that is difficult to hit with slingshot and can actually abuse overuse of slingshot (dash attack being a fantastic option out of a parry), it is a move that can give Isabelle trouble, but the positioning of the Lloid consistently blocks Ally from choosing this option. You may notice Ally is more liberal with his dash attacks when Lloid is not on the field, or when Snake is between Isabelle and her Lloid. Bocchi was obviously well aware of how significant this dynamic can be for this matchup and how much "safer" it makes her mid range game.

Props to Bocchi for being brave enough to roll into Snake's Nades out of dthrow when appropriate to do so. Shades of an anti-Snake technique from Brawl that still has some applications in this game.
 

Daisycakes

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Behold, I come bearing gifts. Shoutouts to Das Koopa Das Koopa for doing all the heavy lifting.

View attachment 228137

And here's a log view (with non-zero axes--warning!) to make the lower section more legible:

View attachment 228138

Using SSB World data as a proxy for lifetime offline tourney usage is not a precise approximation by any means, neither of player count nor player-event count--it is a substitute that is in some ways better and some ways worse. It is a VOD count, which means better players playing better characters who play more matches and are more likely to play on recorded (stream) setups are over-represented. However, this may be precisely what we want? The result is usage values with a soft, linear weight, contrasting with Das Koopa Das Koopa 's top-emphasizing weights. It might honestly be best to call this measure Character Visibility...

I combined Dark Samus, Daisy, Ritcher, and Dark Pit. (Orion Stats has not historically combined the former.) I think everyone would agree that Dark Pit's differences are far less than different custom options for the Miis, who are groups as single characters. (I do not think this can be confidently asserted for Marth, Chrom, or Ken.)

Note that Samus is hiding under Falcon--they have almost identical numbers. Mario is also hiding under Chrom.

Please note just how much a single top player can affect both measures. For example, MK Leo is over 30% of all recorded VODs of Joker, and removing him from the equation would lower Joker's win-rate by almost 8%. It would also tank his OrionStats numbers by a huge number, definitely more than half? And Joker is just an extreme case--to an extent, this is true for most characters.
I don't think you are going to get accurate results if you start combining some echo fighters and not all of them. If Dark Pit's combined, combine Lucina too. If we seperate all echo fighters in data I guarantee you the spread would look different.

Chrom and Roy being merged would also make them among the best performing.
 
Last edited:

Zachmac

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Behold, I come bearing gifts. Shoutouts to Das Koopa Das Koopa for doing all the heavy lifting.

View attachment 228137

And here's a log view (with non-zero axes--warning!) to make the lower section more legible:

View attachment 228138

Using SSB World data as a proxy for lifetime offline tourney usage is not a precise approximation by any means, neither of player count nor player-event count--it is a substitute that is in some ways better and some ways worse. It is a VOD count, which means better players playing better characters who play more matches and are more likely to play on recorded (stream) setups are over-represented. However, this may be precisely what we want? The result is usage values with a soft, linear weight, contrasting with Das Koopa Das Koopa 's top-emphasizing weights. It might honestly be best to call this measure Character Visibility...

I combined Dark Samus, Daisy, Ritcher, and Dark Pit. (Orion Stats has not historically combined the former.) I think everyone would agree that Dark Pit's differences are far less than different custom options for the Miis, who are groups as single characters. (I do not think this can be confidently asserted for Marth, Chrom, or Ken.)

Note that Samus is hiding under Falcon--they have almost identical numbers. Mario is also hiding under Chrom.

Please note just how much a single top player can affect both measures. For example, MK Leo is over 30% of all recorded VODs of Joker, and removing him from the equation would lower Joker's win-rate by almost 8%. It would also tank his OrionStats numbers by a huge number, definitely more than half? And Joker is just an extreme case--to an extent, this is true for most characters.
I don't know what to make of Pokemon Trainer being such a massive outlier here. I mean it's still a good placement for him all things considered, but it's still kind of weird. He's around where I'd expect him to be in terms of performance but far above that in terms of usage.

Is it that players are swarming to him thinking he's better then he really is? I see a lot of nonsense spread about him, either with the faulty logic of "3 characters = perfect match up coverage" or overrating Iysaur in general. Or perhaps the character is deceptively difficult to master and leaves a lot of his players struggling to really excel with him (Squirt can be technical, Ivy has a lot of limitations people gloss over, and Zard seems to have an awkward learning curve to him). Or maybe it's something else entirely. All I can do here is speculate.

Regardless though, this reaffirms my belief that Pokemon Trainer is probably a high tier, but not a top tier. But that seems to be the general consensus in this thread anyway.
 

Nah

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Props to Bocchi for being brave enough to roll into Snake's Nades out of dthrow when appropriate to do so. Shades of an anti-Snake technique from Brawl that still has some applications in this game.
Why would you want to do this? Only played Brawl casually so I wouldn't know....
 

StoicPhantom

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I really don't see why the dTilt nerf is such a big deal whenever she's talked about. I doubt anyone wants this move to be able to connect into other stuff, mostly because of her fAir. I mean, I'd take it but it also would be super busted and a kill confirm at like 70%.
You can still combo past 60 on a lot of characters. It takes some specific spacing and timing, and it won't work on every character, but if you do a quick dash, and then immediately go into full hop Fair, you'll still sweet-spot. You'll need to adjust when you activate the move during full hop, depending on the character, but it's still doable. I can't guarantee DI won't affect this, but D-Tilt is often quick enough to catch people by surprise. So this complaint really isn't even valid.
It has 5 levels and not the 9 mentioned in the video. If it were 9 then he would be right but bruh.
Technically, the main ones are six:

Charge one: Kick
Charge two: Punch
Charge three: horizontal slash
Charge four:overhead slash
Charge five: scoop slash
Charge six: detether

There were more charges discovered early in the meta, horizontal having two and overhead having one variation, depending on timing. See here and here. They weren't easy to pull off, and weren't that useful in the grand scheme of things I don't think, so I don' t think they got much discussion. As such, I wouldn't really blame anyone for not knowing. Hell, I almost completely forgot they were a thing until they were mentioned. I might try labbing them again, now that I have a better understanding of the meta.

I think what would be more concerning in regards to misinformation, is him acting like reflectors or counters would be an issue for Phantom. Phantom's final charge's ability to delay and detach from Zelda, means counters and reflectors are not only rendered useless, but actually unsafe, since Zelda can grab or jump over them and punish the endlag. The only exception is Pocket, given it's intangibility and the fact that it can still store Phantom, even after the hitbox is over, because Phantom lingers for a while.

And a personal nitpick, but he said she relies on Phantom 100%, but that she lacks a good spacing tool, while hand waving Phantom as a gimmick that will eventually be figured out. Phantom is a really good spacing tool, just can't be spammed for free all the time. Properly utilizing the move will prevent it from being a gimmick, and it will still be effective, even though people are getting used to it.
 
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There is a somewhat decent sized tournament that has gone underway. It is called Smash at the Paramount. Has a handful of notable players there.

1st: Ally:ultsnake:
2nd: Dabuz:ultrosalina::ultpalutena:
3rd: Light:ultfox:
4th: Suarez:ultyoshi:
5th: Samsora:ultpeach:
5th: NickC:ultfalcon:
7th: WDBTHtGP:ultbrawler:
7th: Protom:ultgunner:
9th: Kofi:ultfalco:
9th: Raptor:ultyoshi:
9th: Dill:ultrob:
*9th: ANTi:ultlucario::ultmario:
13th: Frozen:ultpalutena:
13th: frenchtutor_:ultlink:
13th: Sinji:ultpacman:
13th: ICE:ultwolf:


Other notable players out earlier:
17th: Mr E:ultlucina:
17th: LingLing:ultpeach:
25th: DKwill:ultdk:


*Note: after losing to Samsora, ANTi DQ'ed out of loser's due to having a really upset stomach-ache. This allowed Protom to move on to top 8 loser's.


This is an impressive showing for :ultrosalina:, as Dabuz took two 3-2 sets against Samsora and Ally using her (although Ally got the run back against him in grand finals), and almost won the tournament.
 

Krysco

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Just got done watching that Ally Snake vs Bocchi Isabelle match: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haWMqPr7I1U Figured I'd give my thoughts since this is actually one of my most common matchups I do with my sparring buddy (my Isabelle, his Snake).

I'll say right off the bat that Bocchi uses way more Fishing Rod than I do with even the commentators mentioning how much she uses it. Uses it in neutral and advantage, with the latter making more sense since if your opponent is in the air on or offstage, they can't shield it and especially with Snake who isn't that mobile in the air. I would say she plants more Lloid Traps than I do but it's the Snake mu. Explosives are almost always going off and any of them near her trap destroys it, which requires her to set it up again.

Speaking of Lloid Trap, someone already mentioned it but I won't fault Ally for falling into Lloid Trap as often as he did. Snake already has to keep track of his grenades, C4 and his opponent, adding Lloid Trap to the mix just makes keeping track of everything more difficult. He did deal with it quite a few times with dtilt. Utilt, grenades, Nikita, usmash and fresh dash attack are all options for it too although slower and either less ranged, pocketable or more punishable.

I'm also surprised by how much Ally went for Nikita edgeguards as often as he did, knowing that Isabelle has Pocket and a long enough recovery that pocketing it won't get her killed. He never died to a pocketed Nikita but he did have to shield it numerous times and it easily could have killed him. He did get a kill with C4 which is one of the better ways to deal with Isabelle offstage for Snake since C4 can't be pocketed. Snake doesn't seem that great going offstage to edgeguard himself but if you go horizontally towards Isabelle and throw a hitbox out (so for Snake, the best option would be bair with nair and dair being iffy due to being multi hits) her slingshots will always clank and give you hitlag, extending the duration of whatever hitbox they hit, potentially hitting Isabelle for it. There is the risk of her air dodging or fast falling and recovering low or even the Fishing Rod though the back throw is rather weak. Probably not a favourable idea for Snake specifically but then the other option is to focus on ledgeguarding rather than edgeguarding. Setting up C4 and grenades by the ledge, being ready to cover whatever option she goes for, possibly even charging up smash or aiming Nikita up and letting it drop to tempt Isabelle to Pocket it and then punish her for it. Probably a better idea than just going for Nikita like Snake does in most MUs. Most of the time it'll just give Isabelle an extra kill move.

Also surprised Ally didn't make use of crouch and crawl more, especially when he was in the lead. Snake has a really low crouch which would make sh fair and bair miss and Isabelle's other approach options have issues of their own. Fishing Rod and grab are laggy, jab is short ranged and not incredibly favourable which pretty much leaves her tilts or a landing nair or dair. Not trying to say he can crouch the whole game after a stock lead to win but even using it just a bit and playing more campy with the lead would've made things much easier for him. He could even drop grenades, crouch by them and then either crawl away, shield or throw them before they go off. And speaking of grenades, I'll commend Bocchi for not pocketing any grenades that had been out for a long time, even just accidentally. Pocketing grenades doesn't reset their timer and there's some lag when pulling an item out of Pocket so if you're not careful, you can turn your Pocket into a guaranteed blow-yourself-up button.

There were a couple silly little interactions too. Silly but good to know. There was Snake's moving dair hitting grounded Isabelle and then getting punished for it with an fsmash since Isabelle didn't move with Snake into the last hit. There was a point where Ally went to jab but Bocchi was setting up a Lloid Trap, causing the jab to whiff. There was another point where Bocchi did a ledge attack and Ally shielded it and then went to grab but it whiffed since Isabelle extends so far out and lies so flat with her ledge attack that she was practically behind Snake when he grabbed. There was another point where Bocchi planted a Lloid Trap and got grabbed right after. Ally went for a back throw but Snake extending his foot out during the throw triggered the trap. Not 100% sure but I wanna say going for uthrow or dthrow would have avoided that or even just pummeling till the grab release.

Lastly, I'll mention that even if Isabelle has a decent mu vs Snake, it doesn't make her not bad compared to the rest of the cast. Smash 4 Kirby had a decent mu vs Fox despite being a low tier vs a top tier (or for those of you who love your round numbers so much, a bottom 10 vs a top 10) and Brawl ICies had -1 mus to Toon Link and Peach despite ICies being 2nd best in the game by the end and Toon Link and Peach being C+ and C- tier respectively. The balance of Smash games has gotten progressively better so I don't find a low tier having a chance against a top tier to be that surprising anymore.
 
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