I've never been an optimist about Robin really. The character has some really nice stuff, and there were some positives in the transition to Ultimate, but there were also some negative things about the transition, and Robin's issues are ones that are too significant to just brush off like
's weight (weight has never really been a strength or weakness though) or
's recovery, especially since Robin's strengths don't greatly make up for these flaws like with those two. Having a strong advantage state is nice and all, but it means less when you can't reliably/consistently enter that state and when your disadvantage is so poor that most characters can dish back what you dealt to them (or sometimes even more).
People used to have a lot of optimism about
too. Dath, Raziek, Skorpio, I remember they all used to think very highly of them. But by the end of Smash 4's life, they all had lost faith in Robin. These weren’t nobodies who didn't know **** about the character either, they were some of the character's best long-term mains. Like PK Gaming said, their flaws were not addressed at all in this game, they are fundamentally still the same, and while most matchups are doable (though yellow rats are ****ing horrendous), many of them being even slightly uphill does not usually equate to success. And because of that, their fate is very likely to be the same as in the previous game: somewhere in the lower half of mid-tier, not truly (solo) viable*. You can certainly do worse than Robin, but that doesn't mean Robin is good. I would not be surprised if there is first an uptick for the character that will make people go "see Nah, you were wrong!", but also like in Smash 4, they'll come crashing down after hitting that peak.
Patches are not likely to do anything either, as most of the patch work so far has been more Corrin-like stuff: universal fixes or stuff that doesn't really mean much. It's clear the developers aren't into the more drastic changes we got in Smash 4. The arguable few that may have gotten remotely significant increases in viability are also ones that weren't hard to make good/better to begin with.
If the optimists really want to insist that
is a character to have faith** in, then they need to go out and prove that long-term.
* I imagine me using the phrase "not truly viable" is going to generate responses arguing about viability, so to address that: As I've seen it, most people fall into one of two schools of thought on the matter of character viability, which to condense into as few words as possible, is dependent upon if you value peaks or consistency more. If you value the former more, then yes, Robin is a viable character.....so is most of the roster really. If you subscribe to the latter, like I do, then Robin is not a viable character.
**I also imagine that people might be wondering why I main a character I have long not thought highly of. So for those who might be curious about that: I am garbage. Garbage is garbage no matter what it plays. So I might as well play a character I like, and for those it's not immediately obvious to, I like Fire Emblem.
While forcing
to start without the Levin Sword is irritating, I can sort of understand the thought process behind it. Robin's Levin Sword grants him strong, fast, and disjointed aerials, and compounded with their reduced landing lags... To give you an idea, Levin BAir is a frame 9, disjointed, +18% damage with crazy knockback, and on top of all of this, the move has a whopping 11 frames of cool down.
"Fast" isn't really the word I'd use to describe Levin aerials. Not when your fastest ones are frame 9 and the rest are f10+ in a game where many characters have faster ones, including many swordies who have comparable reach and end/landing lag too. The fact that you don't start with Levin Sword doesn't bother me personally though, it's only ~10 seconds and there's other times in the match when it's not available anyway. Though obviously starting with it would be better.