Shaky just beat ESAM tonight, twice across three sets. GF2 and WF were both 3-1 in Shaky's favor. Customs were on, and Heavy Skull Bash was in play.
So here comes a Pika talk/rant, something I haven't done in a long time (back when the metagame looked much different, and strategies/play were relatively unrefined, not to say that they've been fully refined since then). Nothing earth-shaking in this post, just my general thoughts on Pikachu.
I don't think Pikachu is as meta-defining as some people think he is, at least with customs off. He has the frame data, mobility specs, and edgeguarding tools to be a Top Tier, but his matchup spread is similar to the spreads of most other top tiers that aren't named Sheik--as in, he loses to a few other top tiers, and wins vs. a few other top tiers, while doing well vs. everyone else on down.
^ I think it's safe to say that these 5 have some kind of advantage (also note that they're all top/high tier except for maybe Olimar). The Sheik MU may be even.
may just be his hardest matchup, though I personally haven't had
that hard a time against him. You have to be really on point with spacing the sword-like tail moves in order to beat Mario, something that not a lot of Pikachus take advantage of (and something that isn't easy). Most Pikachu players other than ESAM seem to have some difficulty with the MU at least, and Mario's weight + airspeed combination make trades generally go poorly for Pikachu in theory.
Also, Mario's up-b is pretty resistant to gimps so as long as you aren't able to hit him out of his double jump he will eventually come out ahead. Resetting to the ledge against up-smash used to be really solid before Pikachu's shorter ledge-hang animation was changed. Now, Mario has more time to get in position to read your get up from the ledge, so it's not quite as safe as it used to be (you can QA to land somewhere on the stage still though, depending on position).
Overall, kind of a quirky "bad/hardest matchup" since it's labbable and the theoretical tools exist, but in practice probably a loss at this point.
is slightly more tolerable than Mario for many PIkas, but only because PIkachu can play really safe vs. Luigi with d-tilts and Quick Attack. The problem is that you have to get a multitude of hits in against Luigi for every time that he grabs you to break even (and it's even worse since Luigi is heavier), and he has a KO confirm on you. Thankfully, Pikachu can gimp Luigi, which keeps the matchup competitive. The traction on Luigi's shield makes some attacks quite safe at optimal spacing too, like d-tilt.
is in the same boat as Luigi. Weighs more than Pikachu and uses Rage to KO him, but can be gimped. The magnet buffs were pretty big because it's now almost impossible to bait out bad reactions from Ness and capitalize on them with Thunderjolt. Thunder is tricky to use as well since it heals Ness for a lot of percent if he magnets it. About the same difficulty as Luigi. Falling up-airs are really good vs. Pikachu's aerial mobility.
is also about the same matchup dynamic/difficulty as the other two mentioned above; he does well vs. Pikachu onstage and gets gimped offstage.
And Sheik is Sheik. But it's actually probably easier than the other matchups mentioned here. Whoever gets the stock first generally tends to win.
All of these matchups aren't unwinnable for Pikachu; Pikachu has the tools, but he needs to put in more work than the opponent, which is the definition of a losing matchup in my mind. Using the unfavored character in an MU means working harder, and Pika definitely works harder in all of these MUs. They're probably about 55:45 to 60:40 though, if I had to put numbers on them. Mostly it's just about an abuse of high reward/greater weight (same reason that Ganon is kind of hard, but without the part where you just combo him to oblivion).
In theory, these are the Top/High Tiers that Pikachu beats:
You look at that list and you think, dang, those are pretty good! But the advantages listed here aren't as large as they might seem. In fact, these characters mostly have kits that are strong enough in
general so as not to lose to Pikachu's particular kit more than 55:45. For instance, Fox. Pikachu has great edgeguards and juggles vs. Fox, but Fox's jabs and insane speed specs allow him to beat Pikachu's options if he's playing on point (QA is easily punished, for instance). ESAM has lost to Larry's Fox twice, though it seemed that at CEO Larry wasn't totally comfortable sticking with Fox against PIka (the first match was even until Larry took the stock and pulled out ahead). For Rosalina, Dabuz vs. ESAM actually looked like it was favoring Dabuz most of the set; ESAM clutched it out. ZSS and Sonic also have good tools vs. Pika. Diddy is arguable.
Falcon is the only one who probably loses pretty convincingly, especially since that up-air nerf hurt his ability to threaten an aerial Pikachu. The others have the tools to win, just like Pikachu in his own bad MUs.
Then you have Yoshi/MK and a few others that are pretty close to dead even. But as you go lower down the list, Pikachu starts winning more solidly. I used to think that matchups such as Greninja were hard, but after getting used to playing Pikachu's spacing game and making the most of his followups I don't think so any more; he seems to win most lower high, mid, and low tier matchups solidly, even against disjoints and
especially against zoners once you get used to Quick Attack as an OOS/punish option.
So my general take on Pikachu is: solid, has some winning matchups among the top tiers but nothing dominant outside of Falcon; beats most of the lower-tiered characters pretty solidly, and also has some unfavorable matchups but nothing in which he just gets dominated. He's pretty much straddling the sweetspot of competitive viability right now, being both really good and not obnoxious/overwhelming (which is what you want in a good competitive character)--buffs to some of the matchups where he just used to flat out win before (like Marth, or Falco) are fine by him and probably won't hurt his viability overall. I'm satisfied with playing Pikachu, though the "must win all matchups" part of me encourages me toward a secondary, which is probably a healthy thing for the game.
I do think that with customs on, Pikachu doesn't lose any matchups, but that's another story that we'll probably hear more about during EVO.