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Cali's Apex Fantasy League --DRAFT COMPLETE--

P

Popopidopop

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May 4, 2011
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Stockholm
I think Tafo got the biggest chance of getting 2 top 5. nvm I guess getting the top 5 didnt matter as much with only 2 points less for every placement after first.
 
KrIsP!

KrIsP!

Smash Champion
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Location
Toronto, Ontario
This seems so damn cool. How are you paying out?

Edit: First round picks are kind of broken though. I almost want to do the math and see how much picking the winner over 5th place could effect you. How did you decide who got first pick? lol
 
Juggleguy

Juggleguy

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Well, if you get 1st overall pick, your next one wouldn't be until the 20th overall pick, so it evens out a bit with the snake-style draft order.

Payout is probably gonna be 70/30. Though I haven't even collected everyone's money yet, and not everyone has PayPal, so I dunno how it'll work lol.
 
KrIsP!

KrIsP!

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Yeah I'm ecited to see if well rounded teams beat out allstar picks with 0's at the end, not saying that any of the player's specifically can't make bracket...but it could end up happening.
 
A

Afghanimal519

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Joined
Jan 7, 2013
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Fremont, CA
Juggleguy said:
Only cause Luis, Eric, and Ahmad were all crazy enough to pass on KK :glare:
Click to expand...
I actually wanted KK as first pick, but I was in the middle of a tournament at rule 6 and Boback told me everyone good except javi was picked. He conveniently neglected to mention KK was free.
 
A

Afghanimal519

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Juggleguy said:
LOL Boback on that grime status.
Click to expand...
If I had gotten KK as firstpick, I don't know how much value Boback and Peter place on Javi, so there's a possibility I may have gotten KK first, and Javi 2nd round. In which case my front 2 both would have the ability to break top 5.
 
Seartu

Seartu

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Joined
Feb 20, 2012
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San Francisco
OP updated, FB thread closing in on 1.4k posts. Broke it so hard no one's getting any notifications on the thread anymore.

Reaching the end though. Then I expect mad side-bets.
 
ZeldaFreak0309

ZeldaFreak0309

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Mar 13, 2005
Messages
391
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Fremont, CA
Seartu said:
Completed Teams:

Seartu: Mew2King, Hax, Kage, Nintendude, .jpg, Vudujin, Paju, Sol
Violence: Axe, SFAT, Colbol, MacD, Eggz, Tai, Toph, Idea
Ahmad: Javi, Westballz, DarkAtma, Tafokints, Hyuga, L, HBK, ZeldaFreak
SideFX: KirbyKaze, Zhu, Scar, Lovage, Light, MattDotZeb, The Moon
Zoap: s2j, Shroomed, Tope, DoH, Stabbed, Alan, Vish, Zoap
Click to expand...
Why does Boback only have 7 dudes in his 'completed team' WHO IS THE MISSING DUDE
 
sidefx

sidefx

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walnut creek, CA
ahmad why are you lying out of your ***? i showed you the whole list, you were looking at it over my shoulder. 100% lie




KK, Zhu, Scar, Lovage, Light, Sung, MDZ, TheMoon
 
JPOBS

JPOBS

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Smashboard's "Cali Apex Fantasy League" Fantasy League

we are having a fantasy league draft of the cali players, to see who wins the cali fantasy league.

First come first sevre. everyone gets one pick until all the cali teams are chosen, $2 entry. BACK YO SQUAD!!!

I pick Crimson
(sorry stabbed)









:troll:
 
Naota21t

Naota21t

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 15, 2006
Messages
2,507
Location
The Bay Area, CA
My teams got this.

My team is most balanced and works with the scoring. Not trying to get hella top 10 but rather guaranteed bracket wildcards who can all do dmg.

I'm luis

:phone:
 
Seartu

Seartu

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 20, 2012
Messages
215
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Erryone be underestimating those foreigners.

Kage, .jpg, Paju......I have faith!

EDIT: Currently working on fun facts for each of these squads.
 
HyugaRicdeau

HyugaRicdeau

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Joined
Jun 4, 2003
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Slippi.gg
DRZ#283
So obviously there is an advantage to going earlier in the draft, and I wanted to estimate how big this advantage is. If you assume everyone picks perfectly (not that realistic but a serviceable approximation), using the above point structure and snake draft, the draft order has the following point advantage after 10 rounds:

1st 16
2nd 13
3rd 10
4th 8
5th 3
6th 3
7th 1
8th 1
9th 0
10th 0

I went through everyone's picks and tried to assign each player an expected value. For example, if you think HBox has a 25% chance of getting 3rd, 50% chance of 4th, 25% chance of 5th, his expected value is .25*30 + .5*28 + .25*26 = 28. Then I totaled everyone's picks, and I include a column where a handicap is included based on the point advantages above (9th/10th get 16 pts, 7th/8th get 15 pts, 2nd gets 3 pts, etc):


Player Total With HCP
Stabbed 126 126
Tafo 127.5 130.5
Crimson 127.5 133.5
Juggleguy 119.5 127.5
Luis 120 133
Seartu 114.5 127.5
Violence 114 129
Ahmad 114.5 129.5
SideFX 116.5 132.5
Zoap 110 126

I don't claim that this handicap is the best way to do it but it's probably better than nothing. I don't think you can mess with the point structure and have it be "fair" while at the same time conserving the idea that picking the top ~12 in correct order should be worth significantly more than picking who gets 49th/65th.

Another side note: the total points given for everyone picking perfectly is 1195. The totals in my estimated points is 1190, meaning I think people will generally pick very well, although this isn't that significant of a prediction because there are 80 slots, whereas 96 people will get 8 or more points (65th or higher). So there is room for error. I also have to include the chances that people get 97th or below in my expected values so 1190 is actually pretty close to "perfect" (again with the clarification that there is room for error since there are more 65th and up placers than draft spots).
 
Sox

Sox

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Joined
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CT
HyugaRicdeau said:
So obviously there is an advantage to going earlier in the draft, and I wanted to estimate how big this advantage is. If you assume everyone picks perfectly (not that realistic but a serviceable approximation), using the above point structure and snake draft, the draft order has the following point advantage after 10 rounds:

1st 16
2nd 13
3rd 10
4th 8
5th 3
6th 3
7th 1
8th 1
9th 0
10th 0

I went through everyone's picks and tried to assign each player an expected value. For example, if you think HBox has a 25% chance of getting 3rd, 50% chance of 4th, 25% chance of 5th, his expected value is .25*30 + .5*28 + .25*26 = 28. Then I totaled everyone's picks, and I include a column where a handicap is included based on the point advantages above (9th/10th get 16 pts, 7th/8th get 15 pts, 2nd gets 3 pts, etc):


Player Total With HCP
Stabbed 126 126
Tafo 127.5 130.5
Crimson 127.5 133.5
Juggleguy 119.5 127.5
Luis 120 133
Seartu 114.5 127.5
Violence 114 129
Ahmad 114.5 129.5
SideFX 116.5 132.5
Zoap 110 126

I don't claim that this handicap is the best way to do it but it's probably better than nothing. I don't think you can mess with the point structure and have it be "fair" while at the same time conserving the idea that picking the top ~12 in correct order should be worth significantly more than picking who gets 49th/65th.

Another side note: the total points given for everyone picking perfectly is 1195. The totals in my estimated points is 1190, meaning I think people will generally pick very well, although this isn't that significant of a prediction because there are 80 slots, whereas 96 people will get 8 or more points (65th or higher). So there is room for error. I also have to include the chances that people get 97th or below in my expected values so 1190 is actually pretty close to "perfect" (again with the clarification that there is room for error since there are more 65th and up placers than draft spots).
Click to expand...
This is interesting, but i'm not sure I fully understand. why don't you give any % for Hbox getting first or second? The expected values seem arbitrary, and i guess it's the part I'm having the hardest time comprehending.
 
HyugaRicdeau

HyugaRicdeau

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Messages
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Slippi.gg
DRZ#283
That's not what I actually gave HBox it's just an easy to understand example. I also didn't really try to work out exact percentages for every person's possible placing, it was more informal than that, especially towards the end, where I'd look at somebody and say "most likely 49th, but small chance of 33rd or 65th...maybe a little closer to 33rd, so I'll say 11.5."
 
Sox

Sox

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 10, 2007
Messages
204
Location
CT
ok, i gotcha. nice work throwin that together. i'll be interested in seeing how accurate it ends up
 
B

Biglard

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Messages
460
Location
Biglardopolis, France
Here's my humble bet on those bets:

1 Seartu
2 Crimson
3 Violence
4 Juggleguy
5 Tafo
6 SideFX
7 Luis
8 Zoap
9 Stab
10 Ahmad

This is pretty hard considering the amount of incredible players involved I have to admit...

Go get em Nintendude!
 
Froggy

Froggy

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Apr 25, 2012
Messages
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Draft crews are dumb. There is no sense of pride or loyalty to the team. It's like a bunch of friendly. I hope they don't waste time with this on the stream.
 
B

Biglard

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Jun 24, 2010
Messages
460
Location
Biglardopolis, France
I don't really see how they could actually lose time with this on the stream considering it's going to be decided only with the final results of the singles bracket, but I might have misunderstood what you mean.

Ok I get it now.
 
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