Batmafia: A BRoom Game moved to DGames

[Virgilijus]

Tom has told me that there is an order to what happens at night. You can ask him yourself and he will verify it (as I asked him), but will not give you the order because that is essential to the game. I asked him this because we were thinking TMW may actually kill some one this night, but didn't know if he was targeted at the same time he targeted some one else if he would die, they would die, or both would die.

If mafia had a recruiter in a game with 3 heroes, 5 people that can investigate, 2 people that can be doctors, 2 people that can steal, 1 person that can kill every night, it seems fairly reasonable that the order of recruiting some one falls behind the order of investigating some one aka Marc recruits him after you investigate.

Mafia is bound to have some very decent power roles and this one perfectly fits the bill.

Yes, cashed will be allowed to talk (he lives on West Coast and wakes up late so I'm not surprised he isn't on yet), but his defense will likely be based on Yeroc and Marc. In fact, Marc seems incredibly confident in Cashed vouching for him. The fact that these three are banded together now with two of them being pegged as mafia has to got to send up red flags everywhere.

What will mafia do tight now? They obviously don't have a majority or else they would have won right now. They obviously won't be voting each other off at the start of the day otherwise their numbers will reach the point of no return. They will obviously have to vote for the same person otherwise they will never be able to get the majority of votes necessary to lynch some one other than town. Their only defense is rested upon themselves and the order of night actions Tom implemented into the game.

Would mafia post a 1000+ word post detailed every move in the finest detail also knowing that anyone (especially Kevin and Alt) could have lied and investigated me during the week and stumbled upon my huge travesty of a lie? Would mafia really put themselves at that much risk? The proof of burden was on me and I decided to throw the whole ****ing batcave at Marc because you guys can look at it and realize "Hmmm... only Batman could really do that". Not only that, look at the nature of Marc's posts instead of being based on logic and reason, they are based on pleas of "do not lynch an innocent man", However, it makes sense: his trump in the hole was cashed testifying against me but it has been brought against him before it even had a chance to foment.

 

[Marc]

If I have been investigated as you claim, Cashed should know. He also should know then that I turned up innocent. There's no way he can hurt my case, while your entire attack depends on him. I'm completely in the dark about a lot of things, so I'm just responding to what I see. There's no way for me on my own to completely debunk your attack, but your case hasn't exactly been proven either.

 

[Virgilijus]

Cashed does know that you were investigated last night; he, TMW and myself talked it over for a while once we knew Medi was going to get lynched. He also knows that you are guilty, as the second I found out from Tom's PM I told Cashed and TMW. This can be verified by the fact Tom sent me my PM before he posted in the thread that TMW was dead. I'm sure the same is true for you guys as why would Tom randomly send out PM's to some people, post what happened in the thread, and then reply to the rest of the PM's. Game managers don't do that. Not to mention my PM and his post were almost an hour apart.

And you are incredibly confident that Cashed will defend you: "There is no way that he can hurt your case". I like how you give no probability to my story which has tens of intricacies and caveats that can be disproved by any one that investigated me, yet give the upmost confidence to a guy who I have given severally very precise, incredibly detailed reasons why he cannot be trusted.

And you are sounding like a lawyer with "My case has not been proven." If cashed says you are innocent, it does not prove my story wrong at all. In fact, it fits perfectly into my story.

Cashed has only two options:

a) say I, Virgilijus, am Alfred and lying and a traitor and my story, overall, is a lie or
b) say "Virg is right, Marc is mafia" to try to make it seem like I wrongly accused him and put doubt on my story.

If he says the second, then it would be ridiculous for him not to vote for Marc after a positive ID came up for him and Marc would eventually die. That option most definitely would hurt you. You are banking too much on Cashed's vouche for you and, while he almost certainly will, proves a prescience that can only be credited to mafia or the batman....and you sir, are no goddamn Batman.

 

[Marc]

No one can verify what is said in PMs or within Masonries. I don't get why you'd even bring it up. TMW can't tell us the truth, Cashed can. Or are we going to have Tom tell us what's up? :3

You discredit Cashed and attack me. You also mention an investigation, which I know can't have marked me as Mafia. You make it seem like you're not on Cashed's side anymore and I know that you are lying. Of course I'm trusting Cashed to vouch for me, because if you're not on my side and not on his side, he probably is on my side (assuming there are two...). Your story has no probability for me because I KNOW it isn't true. I've already mentioned that I do believe you were once allied with Cashed, who for all I know is the real Batman. That's why I think most of what you posted about nightly actions could very well be true, everyone in that alliance would know about it.

 

[Marc]

And about the options you keep posting... You prepare for every response in a way that makes me (or Cashed, for that matter) seem guilty. That's just silly, because I could do the same for every person in the game. So unless Cashed doesn't post at all, you will have your "Ha, I told you he would say that!" moment, because you've listed everything he can say and twisted it to fit your story.

 

[Virgilijus]

Are you accusing me, the prosecutor at the moment, of making the people I am accusing look guilty? Marc, I would be a very bad prosecutor if I made the people I was charging appear innocent through my evidence. And I am actually using no bias or slander, I'm logically preparing for what are the options: it just so happens that those options undoubtedly and automatically make yourself and Yeroc and Cashed look suspect.

And I brought up nothing that was in the PM, but just that we in fact did get PM's and that they were before Tom posted TMW's death in the thread. That is something that can be verified by Xsyven. And if I know that we got a PM before the post...that means it seems rather likely that I could check that PM to see what time I got it. If I got a PM, then that means that I had a night action and am therefore who I claim to be.

"Your story has no probability because I KNOW it isn't true". You aren't even attempting to prove anything on your own. I brought more things than anyone can imagine to the table and told everyone to pick them up and inspect them as closely as possible to see if anything is not as it appears to be and no one has been able to. You, on the other hand, are saying 'Wait for the guy who is all ready shown to be highly guilty to vouche for me and all your evidence is bunk because I know it isn't true". Does that really seem like an adequate defense? You keep on saying you believe me until last night but that I am now a traitor. You have not once mentioned who I may be a traitor with...just that I am a traitor. A traitor on the grounds that I presented mounds of evidence that some one else is mafia? That seems to defy logic.

 

[Cashed]

I wake up to a book that says I'm now mafia, bat-tastic. I have to say, I didn't expect that. I won't respond in book fashion like Virg did, despite long posts seeming very assuring and convincing, it just isn't how I post. Scav even called me out for that earlier in the game, saying that I was suspicious for my short posts. I'd like to know why I'm suddenly being cast in doubt though, is my vote for Ricky really that far out there? He withheld information so a town would have to investigate me last night, despite already knowing that I have the keys to Wayne Manor. I don't really mind that right now though, with Virg attacking me as it puts two solid pieces of evidence behind my name. Ricky says he's checked me out and that I have the keys to Wayne Manor. Xsyven has investigated me saying I have no past record. There are your solid facts. I hope the rest of the town will look at those instead of believe Virg's claims, which cannot be backed up. Virg isn't absolutely lying though. He's pretty much given away everything he, tmw and I did. Like he mentioned, I haven't said directly who I am, in fear of a day kill ability like tmw had against people who claimed to have criminal records, but I've implied who I am and tmw himself said who I was. Virg is, as he claimed a few posts ago, Alfred Pennyworth, who has now obviously been recruited by the mafia.

Unvote: Riciardos
Vote: Virgilijus

 

[Rici]

Well this got interesting...

 

[Xsyven]

...

I'm out.

*sits back and watches*




In all honesty, I think Virg just got paranoid. Cashed posted without consulting someone. Big deal. I see them both as two townies in a Mexican standoff due to paranoia.

 

[Virgilijus]

Gentlemen, are you really that easily swayed? So far, all that Cashed and Marc have said are "No. YOU are guilty!" really, read their posts and tell me that they have said anything remotely concrete. The closest thing they have to it is that Ricky said Cashed has the keys to Wayne manor. This is the same Ricky all three were literally attacking and Cashed voted for. Why are they so trusting of some one they know as mafia? The answer is simple: they are mafia and know that Ricky is innocent.

So far, Marc's defense is "Ask Cashed" and Cashed's defense is "Virg's story is absolutely good except for the last part where he switched our two roles." Marc's name claim, as everyone will attest to, is by far the most suspicious in the game, bar none. Ask yourself: would a game really have 4 people with 4 powers, two of which are replacements if two die? The reasonable answer is no. Does it make sense that a mafia would pick a character that had a bad history but is now good to use as an alibi? Yes, that makes perfect sense. Does it make sense that the person claiming to be Harvey Dent, which of all the characters in the world of comics books is known for his transformation into a bad guy is the most well known, "fails" on his attempt to find the name of the most suspicious name claim and therefore gets no proof on him? Yes, because Dent is mafia (quite possibly recruited the previous day). Does it make sense that Cashed has not even talked to me about this whole thing yet online over AIM?
He hasn't. Just this one post from my mason partner and then nothing. Scav can attest to me being online. Those are just a handful of questions that some how, miraculously, by divine Providence, happen to fall perfectly in line with each other. Alt, Scav, Xsyven: I know you are a men of logic: does it seem likely that those four very unlikely scenarios all happen to have happened at the same time? No. Not in the least.

Look at my example: so far no one, not even Cashed has been able to say anything incorrect about it. Nothing. Absolutely nothing of the thousands of words I just wrote. In fact, Cashed said it was all true barring my claim as hero. That gives me a little bit of credibility. The only thing my story depends on is me being who I claim I am. That's it. One thing. If I am the hero, Marc is proven mafia from my investigation, Yeroc and Cashed are mafia from their aid of Marc. One thing. Kevin and Ricky: so far no one has been able to denounce a single thing I say and the only thing from completely unraveling this entire thing is one word from cashed that his based on him "believing" some mafia did exactly what my incredibly intricate and confessed right story said and changing one name. Does that seem like a great defense? No, it is not.

And of course Cashed has the keys to Wayne Manor: everyone knew before Medi was killed last night (with Yeroc's post) that I was not Nightwing. With TMW's murder last night the only two things we could possibly be were Batman or Alfred. The fact that he has the keys (which I admit to as he is my butler) prove nothing. Isn't it interesting how Yeroc was already attacking us before we lynched Medi and sewing seeds of discord? Everyone, EVERYONE knew that the three of us were Batman, Alfred and Nightwing in some shape or form, otherwise the real Batman, Alfred and Nightwing would have stepped up and pinned us as mafia then without any fear. There was no need to mention such things aloud because all they would do would distract from Medi. There is absolutely nothing else that that comment could have done. It was an underhanded attack on the three of us, meant to be played by some one who was pretending not to know what was going on.

Now think about this for a second: assume I am correct and that it was an attack by mafia. No one has refuted our claims as the big three. Medi dies from our attacks. Would it not be wise to attack us as we are most definitely a very heavy threat? Yes. And that is what mafia did. They killed Nightwing, there is absolutely no debate over that. Then, we come to the traitor. I am claiming cashed is a traitor and he is claiming I am a traitor. With the all ready incredibly high speculation that there was a mafia recruiter in the game, we can now say that one of us was indeed recruited. Which recruitment makes sense: me attacking the guy who attacked the three of us and his horrible name claim buddy or Cashed spontaneously voting voting Ricky, agreeing with Marc and subsequently Yeroc (all of whom were attacking Ricky) and then having a "Nope, you're wrong!" defense against my attacks?

Can you really look at all of that, all of it, and tell me that it doesn't seem awfully suspicious that those numerous instances that just so happen to connect perfectly to one another and happen to fall into place with every word I have written today without one fail and happen to match everything that was proven so far in the game and happen to go against the man with the worst name claim and the only man that attacked me so far? Reread everything Marc has written in his defense with that in mind.

And Xsyven, there was no failure in comunication: Cashed did not talk to me, he has yet to talk to me, and he has voted for me. He knows exactly what I know: he is mafia.

 

[Xsyven]

You have to understand virg-- your huuuuge long post came out of nowhere.

Cashed wanted a TINY bit of independence and posted on his own, and as such, you wrote a novel. The very same could have happened to you, and you're using it to your advantage to take the heat off of you. *Shrug*


Either scenerio works.

 

[Virgilijus]

Xsyven: did you ever break away from Medi and post your own votes last game? I'm sure if you did you would have to explain to Medi what you did.

It boils down to this:

My case hinges on: Me being the hero

Cashed and Marc and Yeroc's case hinges on : Cashed being Batman AND Marc's name claim being right, Yeroc being a stupid towny and accidentally attacking, Cashed wanting independence by not consulting me with his vote despite it being the most pivotal day of the game thus far, Yeroc's investigation of Marc failing, me being paranoid, Ricky being mafia despite all his claims fitting, me being recruited by a mafia that is either Alt (proven good by Ricky's actions) or some one that has literally not been on for weeks and was replaced last night

Xsyven, I know you and cashed are good friends. It saddens me that this happened but there is a mound of evidence against his word of "No."

 

[Cashed]

I hope that everyone sees in Virg's novels that his claims all fall onto Alt and Ricky.

Let's look at Ricky. He was very inactive. He was hesitant to name claim, but finally did AFTER the deadline passed, claiming a rather big name in the Batman universe but claiming to have no powers. Being able to be the six person to vote for Mediocre, he didn't, he voted for Alt. After this last night, Ricky reveals he has the power to track people. I'd love to know why anyone ISN'T suspicious of him.

And then there's Alt. He has a very weak name claim. Like Ricky originally did, he's claiming to be a vanilla. He's been very inactive. Nobody seems to know a thing about him other than Ricky, saying that he stole the keys of the Gordon residence off of him.

I believe we have our mafia ring directly in sight, and they appear to be using Virg, known for being a great writer, to try to sway the towns against eachother.

 

[Virgilijus]

Ricky says he's checked me out and that I have the keys to Wayne Manor. [...] There are your solid facts.

Cashed used Ricky's claim that he has the keys to Wayne Manor but

Nobody seems to know a thing about him other than Ricky, saying that he stole the keys of the Gordon residence off of him.

He refuses to use that same name claim that he used as part of his defense to help Alt. Ricky voted Alt for lynch yesterday. He claims to have stolen from him last night. That makes reasonable sense from the way he voted as Alt was suspect to him so he stole something. He then found out that he has the keys to the Gordon Mansion and subsequently backed off of Alt. All of that, from his standpoint and actions, makes sense. Ricky was probably just initially nervous about revealing his role as catwoman, a woman who obviously has a record and would be a target.

To say I am mafia and debating for them because I am a good writer borders on an ad hominem attack (a logical fallacy) if it weren't for the fact it is a compliment. Argue against my case, not me, Cashed.

 

[Virgilijus]

On night 0 I investigated Virg, who had no record, and on night 1 I investigated Scav, who also didn't have a previous record. This follows true to his name claim, even though it could be a lie, but then is backed by Xsyven's investigation of him. So Scav is town. Xsyven appears to be as well. Bullock not having any powers when Gordon was around would make sense, as you can't have two cops in a masonry together and give them both the ability to investigate. That just wouldn't be balanced. So Eor gets killed, Xsyven is now scared for his life because for all he knows he's the only cop left in the game, so he starts screaming for a doctor to protect him. Subtle Bullock, subtle.

I know some of you were (and still are) unsure about claiming because your character has a past criminal record. Don't forget who I am! One of my powers (and no, I'm sharing them all because those powers play more to the mafia than you guys. Trust me!) is to investigate who is active mafia. I believe investigators do not have this, but feel free to correct me on that if needed, Detective Bullock. That said, people like Marc, who's claim in the end makes sense, but still sounds fishy, can be checked to make sure they are in fact town. Also, by name claiming who you are, we put mafia in a pickle. They either are forced to wait till most other people post in case they pick a character that is still around, or they pick a character that is incredibly minor so that no one else's claim will conflict with theirs. And of course, not all of them are going to swing the same way. Some of them may be posting without name claiming. Some may have claimed an significant name. Some may be lurking the thread waiting to see what happens and then to pop in at the last second to claim.

With all that said:

Vote: Mediocre

I'm sorry, but there isn't even a Batman character named Firebird. I believe if you were being truthful, you would have at least looked at your role PM when you received it and have learned to spell your name correctly. Now, there is Flamebird, so the whole fire-flame thing makes you come off as "Oh I just read my role PM real quick and I'm totally innocent don't send me to Arkham!" but she is so insignificant to the Batman universe that she would not be included in this game. Not only is she insignificant to the Batman universe, but she's just as commonly associated with the Superman universe, so I don't believe for a second that a Batman Mafia game would include a character like Flamebird. In the end it just looks like you wiki'd supporting Batman universe characters and picked one that sounded unimportant to the point that they likely wouldn't be in the game so you wouldn't be claiming a name someone already had. Not only that, but your power claim that "half the time it works" just seems like an excuse that you can't prove it. If we asked you to demonstrate and block some one you could always just say it failed.

followed by

I won't respond in book fashion like Virg did, despite long posts seeming very assuring and convincing, it just isn't how I post

Cashed did post in a long book fashion. And do you know why? Because Cashed and TMW and I talked about that individual post for at least an hour. Why? Because we were afraid we might make mistakes so we spent forever to make it. We were incredibly cautious (as Cashed never mentioned he was Batman for fear of Bane). Why would that change overnight? Cashed never said "Virg, we did talk last night." I accused him of voting and posting without my consent on his own and he never denied it. Never even mentioned it. He posted on his own because he lost affiliation with me and I was the one to realize this after his post/vote of Ricky. I instigated nothing but saw everything.

In sum: there is proof Cashed and I meticulously went over every one of his posts (both through his confession that my initial story was right and the above quote and that suddenly, Cashed begins posting without my aid and begins accusing some one that the two most suspicious people in the game are all ready accusing. The only thing to happen between then is that a traitor has been recruited (both Cashed and I have agreed that there is a traitor). Combined with previous posts, there is only one result:

Marc, Yeroc, and cashed are mafia.

 

[Mediocre]

I'm firebird.

 

[Eor]

I'm the invisible woman

 

[Yeroc]

I'll refrain from quoting the parts of that gargantuan post that concern me, but absolutely none of what you say about me is even the most remotely based on factual evidence. I will admit, Virg, that from outward appearances you have a pretty intricately put-together puzzle, but for the present I'm chiefly concerned with those parts that directly implicate me, and the fact is there isn't a shred of factual evidence among it. The parts of your story implicating me are all tied to, well, as Marc put it, the assumption of guilt on my part. You say your story makes complete sense, assuming I'm mafia. Which I guess would be a correct statement. But where is there any evidence that I actually am? You have no factual evidence that I did or thought or intended any of those things. No criminal inspections, no mafia inspections, nor even a trinket in Riciardo's possession verifying or denying any of the claims or statments I've made the entire game. Not any sort of smoking gun to speak of.

Night 0, Eor dies. Quite a nasty shock, and a very disturbing one at the time for all I knew: like Xsyven, how was I supposed to know that there would be at least 3 cop roles in the game, 7 if we're to believe what you say about the Batman & co.? I'm not in a mason, I have zero info at this point, and I'm sitting on the role of Dent which isn't exactly the easiest town role to sell should suspicions be brought against me. I'm pretty much afraid to post at this point. As I previously mentioned, I successfully investigated Scav this night, and found out his name. A quick wiki helped paint him as town to me, so I filed that away for future reference.

Day 1, EE pulls off his win, which surprised me. I didn't think he was mafia, but I didn't really suspect the jester, even though most of the consequences I had guessed at. I sort of figured Harley would be the jester, and that she would set free the Joker and all the townsfolk as well. I also noted the we as town got the extreme short end of that stick too: No second chance townies to come to our rescue and recondemn any resurgent mafia, whom they would almost certainly outnumber. I didn't see the Batman's choice coming at all, so I was further dismayed to lose a hero so soon.

Night 1, Matunas and Iggy die, I successfully inspect tmw, which is reassuring because I did it in part due to his post where he voted for Scav. At this point the structure of the town is starting to take shape in my head. Very soon Cashed and you pushed for the mass name claim. Oh ****, I think. I'm going to die for wanting to stay hidden. Scav posts, closing the airlock on his role and his affiliation. Medi posts while I'm putting my post together, and I actually might have missed it the first time around because it was a pretty long day at work and I went to bed soon after that. At this point I'm very torn on what to do. I have a useful ability for this , so I decide that if the town goes along with this plan I need to come up with a way to present it positively in light of my name. After you all posted, I understood that my role at least was likely to be safe from being targeted, though I was still unsure of myself. At this point I was very concerned about the information I had, and it was here that I seem to have made my error. I knew that tmw was Nightwing, but you claimed that role. I didn't know what to think at first, I knew either I was misinformed (a la roleswap) or someone was lying. When no counterclaims showed up, I began to be less suspicious, but I was trying to be cautious. I realized that I'd have to post, and I still rather reluctantly put together my impressions of the game thusfar. I said already, I realize now how foolish it was to speak up about your switched claims, and if my doing so contributed to the death of tmw then shame on me, but I flatly deny it was purposely aimed at you. If I were mafia, I wouldn't wittingly put a target on myself and all but shout out "Hey, I know your game!" You can think I'm the dumbest mafia player alive if you like, and I'm not perfect, but there's no factual basis for all this to label me as mafia.

Anyway, during this time you all began going after Medi for his pretty absurd claim. I held off on my decision to vote for him for the night. He hadn't really stood out to me earlier in the game, which isn't surprising considering how poorly I did against him last game, but I decided before going to bed that he was probably done for and I wanted to wait and see who came out to help him. I was concerned at Riciardos' choice here: why would someone bother to so pointedly vocalize suspicion about another player when someone is obviously minutes from being lynched? And yet, Alt was someone I was also still somewhat suspicious of. They both claimed vanilla roles, something that seemed less than fitting with the rest of the information we'd acquired. The possibility of one playing a vote off the other in that space, consequence-free as Medi was doomed, in an effort to look more town surfaced in my mind, and then Alt hammered Medi, the other obvious "hey I'm town" move. Part of the reason I hadn't done it myself.

Day 2, Medi is lynched and we unsurprisingly find our first mafia. I decided to play Scav's game and search out Marc. There wasn't much thought going into this night for me, it was pretty straight-forward. Finding out if Marc's name was McGinnis or not had pretty far-reaching implications. You can accuse me of lying about it all you want, that I evaded a trap left by you to snare me in lies, but your entire accusation of me is based on the fact that an event of set probability happened to go just so. I'm sorry, I don't control the results of Tom's coin tosses.

Night 2, tmw buys the farm, the rest is playing out as we speak. Now, the parts that you seem so sure you've got my actions pegged all seem to concern what happened this past night and somewhat the day before. I've already addressed the leaked role claim and my investigation, but what about the mafia's night actions? Doesn't it seem fishy that I'd have the only hero I knew for certain killed off if there's the possibility of a recruiter role like you so adamantly suggest? He wasn't even the one that claimed batman. Your sections sound all right individually, but it doesn't stick to me. Assuming I were mafia, and assuming there was a recruiter like you said, I sure as hell would have taken the hero I knew over any of the unknowns. I think the fact that I can prove prior knowledge of tmw's identity safely precludes me from involvement in his murder when placed alongside these other considerations.

Face it Virg, you have nothing against me but pure circumstantial suspicion, as compelling as you may think it is.

 

[Virgilijus]

I think the fact that I can prove prior knowledge of tmw's identity safely precludes me from involvement in his murder when placed alongside these other considerations.

According to my PM, the person I inspected (I'll get to them in a minute, since they seem to be town anyhow) flipped Nightwing, and it wasn't Virg.

You never said TMW was Nightwing. You just said I wasn't: that in no way shape or form proves you knew who TMW was. The only thing it proves was that you claimed I wasn't Nightwing and was lying.

What's interesting, though, is that Nightwing some how ended up dead the next day. You claim to have known it was him. From Cashed's story I was ruled out and I'll admit cashed could not have killed him either as he was still Alfred. You are claiming to know he was Nightwing. You are claiming you knew he was very likely a multi-powered town (Marshy was the boy wonder and was multipowered, so it only makes sense a stronger version of him was the same). You are claiming to be the only one to know this and he ends up dead the next morning. Tell me how that is not a smoking gun in your hand?

And my entire probability of your guilt is not based on a coin flip: I have investigated Marc and found him guilty. There is no doubt. It's a bit ironic, however, because the three of you say I have no "proof", yet your "proof" of innocence is much, much less credible than mine:

In your last post, you said everything that you did. No one has claimed tracker or to have investigated you. No one. Your "proof" is that you said you did it.

My "proof" comes from being in a three headed, confirmed masonry with Nightwing (TMW) and Alfred (Cashed). Even Cashed, one of my biggest opponents, will and has admitted to that. So I am confirmed, at the least, of being either the hero or Alfred. This corresponds to Xsyven's story and Ricky's story as well as Cashed's story and TMW's death. Those are four separate, 3rd party actions that confirm I am who I claim to be.

You claim I have no "factual evidence" in your latest post: I have all ready claimed to have investigated Marc last night and gotten the guilty sign from him. How is that claim any less of a claim that "I investigated Marc last night and nothing happened but he's a good guy, I know it"? It is exactly your claim (minus randomly 'probability' thrown in there) but from a character proven to be good at least up until last night. So, which seems more believable, from a completely objective point of view?

a) some one (who has been ID'd and confirmed as town through his link to a dead character) investigates some one every one finds suspicious and gets a positive mafia confirm
b) some one (who has no proof of any previous town affiliation besides his own words) investigates the same suspicious man, claims his investigation failed due to a "kink" in his power, then joins the debate on the side of the suspicious man he just investigated but found nothing out against a proven town.

If you claim your scenario is "proof" of your innocence and mine is even less so, you are sorely mistaken: much like Cashed's claim of Batman, it rides on several (in your case, 3) incredibly suspicious things being concurrently true. Mine rides on one thing, "I'm the hero", and everyone has all ready admitted that I have been positively identified as either the hero or Alfred. How is your "proof" greater than mine? How is it in any logical, reasonable manner?

Me: my entire story depends on me being who I claim, the hero, which at minimum, I have a 50/50 outsiders chance of being as everyone in the game will attest to

versus

Cashed: his entire claim is dependent on him being Batman (50/50 outsiders) + 4 suspicious things previously outlined
+
Yeroc: his claim depends 3 suspicious things previously outlined
+
Marc: his claim depends on 1 very suspicious thing and Cashed's and Yeroc's words

You say I have no proof. I have Marc with a smoking gun in his hand after investigation. You don't believe me? Fine. Without my investigation, I have your (all three of you guys') innocence proven only if 7 incredibly suspicious things happen to match up, several of which can only be "proven" by your guys' word for each other.

 

[Yeroc]

My word is for no one but myself. Even this morning, I wasn't attacking your story to try to take the heat off of Marc or Cashed or whoever else you have it in for. Look over every one of my posts in this thread and you'll not see one concerted piece of defense for the cases of any of the other accused parties.

You are claiming to be the only one to know this and he ends up dead the next morning. Tell me how that is not a smoking gun in your hand?

Based on everything else you posted: about Marc being mafia, about Cashed being turned traitor, about my own involvement in last night's events; it doesn't stack up. If Marc and myself are the mafia and we have the ability to kill someone and recruit someone else, and I know for certain who one of the heroes is, wouldn't it have made more sense to steal that hero out from under the town's nose and go for one of the other two big targets? At that point, Cashed allowed himself to be perceived as Batman, and you were telling us you were someone that I knew you weren't. The best possible course of action for me in the mafia then would have been to have Nightwing recruited and either kill Cashed or yourself, hoping that the one I picked was the Batman. The only way your recruitment scenario works is if I'm not involved, because recruiting Cashed on suspicion as Batman only makes sense for someone who doesn't know that it's potentially fake. Therefore, either your story about Marc is accurate (which I have no evidence to confirm or deny) and the part about me isn't, or the part about me being mafia is true, but then how else do you explain the claims on your other suspects? Or, none of this is true and you're just heaving all kinds of suspicion everywhere in an attempt to paint people other than yourself in a mafia light. I'm not suspicious of this yet, but your mountainous accusations aren't all that substantial in the case of myself at least.

You're trying to implicate me alongside them because you're convinced that the provable aspects of my involvement in this game coincide with other events and aspects, but of which you have only suspicion and conjecture. It's really sort of unfair that you can lay accusations against me implicating my involvement in something that isn't factually tied to me and then say that my defense isn't acceptable because it's not been proven true. Neither has it been proven false. You're the one making the assertion here. It should be up to you to prove it. If anyone can bring forth evidence against me that belies anything I've said so far, let them do it. Then I'll admit to being involved in this grand conspiracy that Virg has presented.

 

[AltF4]

...so... much... reading...

This really is hard. Individually, everyone sounds so convincing. And I wasn't expecting the "turning into mafia mid-game" dynamic, either. That throws a wrench into a lot of things.

I'm not going to officially vote quite yet. But I'm most suspicious of Virg. He's claiming that Marc, Yeroc, AND Cashed are mafia? That sounds like a tall order to me.

But even still. If we lynch Virg and he turns out to be telling the truth about himself, then we know EXACTLY where to look during the next day. It's a safe vote, if you ask me.

 

[KevinM]

I'd rather not make a mis lynch and then lose a townie and now if there are 2/3 mafia you have them at a near even ratio making it even harder.

Still reading there is a lot to catch up with.

 

[Scav]

Not if Virg has 4 superpowers.

Unfortunately, being at work, I don't have time for a long post. But, I sided with Virg because his attack jives with my perception of the game thus far. I was convinced that Cashed wasn't Batman (and assumed Redcell was... two players in Masonry wouldn't say "let's reveal our power roles," they'd say "lets swap roleclaims so we get the benefit of the mass nameclaim but leave a decoy for the Mafia." I simply didn't anticipate the triple-person swap. I also had the feeling a power role would flip, because Tom would throw a wrench at all of us who metagame the hell out of this scenario.

Alfred flipping is the most obvious. Batman flipping is less likely. And we can all agree that there's no way Cashed would come out and say he's Batman if he actually was. Whether you believe Virg is Batman or not, the 3-person shell game happened, and Redcell lied about who he was. Why would NIGHTWING lie, and Batman tell the truth?

Virg may well be Mafia. But I'm much, much more inclined to believe and trust his reasoning than I am the opposition's.

Some math:

We have 9 people remaining. At most, there are 3 Mafia. Presumably the recruitment, if it happened, triggered because of Medi's death.

Let's also assume that we lynch incorrectly (since if we get it right, the game changes dramatically in the town's favor.) An incorrect lynch means we go down to 7 people, with 3 mafia remaining. Long odds.

9 remaining, 3 Mafia - lynch town, Mafia kills town.
7 remaining, 3 mafia - Lynch town, Mafia wins.

Thinking further: With 9 people, there's a 1/3 chance that we nab scum. We can say for certain that Cashed, Xsyven, Virg and I were town at one point. That leaves 5 people for 2 mafia roles. I think Alt has shed suspicion for now, despite a dubious name claim. There's debate about Riciardos, Yeroc and Marc. We know little about Kevin. Grr. But at the moment, he's less likely.

That leaves Riciardos, Yeroc and Marc as the most likely for 2 Mafia roles. 66%, and if it's right, redemption for Virg. With Cashed and Virg, there's arguably a 50% chance, assuming one of them WAS recruited, which isn't a given. What's worse, lynching Virg and having him be town doesn't prove Cashed was mafia. It might just be that Cashed doesn't trust Virg anyore, for whatever reason.

The strongest play here is to pin the game on Virg's claims. Virg is either manipulating us, or REALLY, strongly, believes his logic. It's solid enough that it's worth hinging our success on.

We vote Marc. If Marc is mafia, Virg is by far our most powerful asset, he's redeemed, and we old a 5:2 advantage. If Marc isn't Mafia, we vote out Virg. If Virg is Mafia, we'll still hold a 3:2 advantage and one more shot. If Virg isn't Mafia, then we blame him for getting us all killed and being the worst batman ever.

Alternatively, we vote virg, Virg isn't mafia, we lose a power role, and suddenly have to confront Cashed, which puts us in a MUCH more precarious situation.

Vote for Marc. If Marc is clean, next round we kill Virg.

 

[Xsyven]

Vote: Marc

There's only one way to settle this. If Marc is Mafia, I once again investigate Cashed. If Marc is town, I investigate Virg.

Everything dandy?

 

[Marc]

I'm still confused about what's happening between Virg and Cashed. Virg has this huge theory that depends on so many things and I know he's incorrect about me. He's clearly unwilling to budge, not even considering the possibility that he could be wrong. Cashed didn't comment on my investigation if there was one, I'm guessing he wants to settle this first. =/

Either way, it doesn't seem logical to just off me before this all is settled. I don't trust Virgilijus at all anymore. I wish there was something I could do to prevent this being a repeat of the previous Mafia game.
-_-

Vote: Virgilijus

 

[Virgilijus]

But even still. If we lynch Virg and he turns out to be telling the truth about himself, then we know EXACTLY where to look during the next day. It's a safe vote, if you ask me.

If you lynch me and I was right, the following happens:

We lose our best investigator and the only person who can protect people at night thus far. The game drops to 8 people and mafia is guaranteed a kill (with the only doctor gone) making it 7 people with 3 mafia. You kill Marc, 6 people with two mafia. Mafia is guaranteed a kill during the night to get us down to 5 with two mafia. If, at any point after my death, you guys mistakenly do not kill a mafia, they win. Even if you kill Ricky and he is an independent, they will have numbers and will win because there is a 100% chance they can kill some one at night (most likely Xsyven because he is the only known town and investigator left). You have to kill mafia every night or we lose.

If we lynch Marc and I was wrong, the following happens:

We lose a potential batman but still have Cashed as the current Batman. Cashed and Yeroc are cleared making Scav, Cashed, Yeroc, Xsyven guaranteed town with Batman protecting people at night. If there are three mafia left, it is guaranteed to be me and two of the following: Ricky, Alt and Kevin. There are 8 people left with the chance that Cashed saves some one. So then we have either 8 or 7 people left depending on Cashed. Obviously, I'd be killed next without hesitation. That means 7 or 6 people left with 2 mafia left. Cashed can still save some one if he didn't die the night before and may block mafia again. That leaves either 7/6/5 people left with 2 Mafia. You guys would probably kill Ricky for voting with me and being suspicious initially. If he is mafia, as Cashed and Yeroc are certain of, that means there is a chance of having 6/5 or 4 people left in the game with 1 mafia. This is not factoring in Yeroc and Xsyven investigating every night.

If you guys lynch me and I am right, you would have to play a (literally) absolute perfect game to win town. If you guys lynch Marc and are wrong, the worst scenario is you still have Cashed's super powers and have Yeroc proven innocent with the same amount of mafia.

On the other hand, if I'm right and we lynch Marc:

We win. Period. I can protect some one at night: Ricky can investigate Yeroc and Xsyven can check Cashed again. I will protect some one. Even if it fails, that puts us at 7 people and two mafia and we know exactly who they are, can investigate them with two different sources and win the game by numbers by killing them off as we please.

Think about it: almost every piece of proof, evidence, logic, numerical outcomes, and probability say we vote Marc. And by "almost every", I literally mean there is one scenario out of the tens that could play out that would involve me dying and it benefiting town. One. And that one is based on the words of the man with the worst name claim, the man who backed up the man with the worst name claim, and the other man who supports the man with the worst name without so far having said he investigated him or learned anything about him (as Cashed has only said I'm wrong and not said anything about why Marc's claim is good).

Alt, I must admit I need to appeal to your mathematical expertise instead of writing a book of rhetoric. Does that probability look good?

 

[Virgilijus]

Virg has this huge theory that depends on so many things and I know he's incorrect about me.

Marc. I offer a challenge to you: please list the things that my story depends on. I would love to see this numerous list.

Because, as it is, the only thing that would prove my story is if I am the hero. Absolutely nothing else.

 

[Cashed]

I don't feel the need to address Virg's post because they say the same thing over and over, and are based on nothing other than my voting early for Ricky.

And alright. Time to take a risk.

I am Batman.

 

[Marc]

In a nutshell:
-The fact that you attack THREE people at once with a theory in which they are related.
-An investigation of me no one can verify and Cashed didn't comment on.
-Cashed being turned, just because he's apparently doubting you and didn't ask for permission to post.
-Yeroc's investigation failing meaning he's protecting me, while that may very well be his actual role. You have nothing that suggests otherwise.

It doesn't matter if you're the hero or not, what matters is that you're wrong. I was gonna let you have the benefit of the doubt, maybe you did investigate me and something went wrong, but you're so hellbent on getting several people killed it doesn't make sense anymore. Cashed is ultra clean, why are we going to doubt that all of a sudden? Him not trusting you confirms my suspicions. You simply came out of nowhere in order to win people over. Since then you've been ranting and ranting, but much of it only shows you were at some point aligned with Cashed. No one is even argueing that! At this point you're starting to sound like a politician with your appeals to individual people.

 

[Xsyven]

No, I'm Spartacus!

You guys suck.

 

[Virgilijus]

-The fact that you attack THREE people at once with a theory in which they are related.

If I am the hero, my investigation indicts you. Yeroc both attacked me, is protecting you and is siding with Cashed. That validates my attack on the three of you.

-An investigation of me no one can verify and Cashed didn't comment on.

As stated above, if my claim is correct then my claim is verified.

-Cashed being turned, just because he's apparently doubting you and didn't ask for permission to post.

With my claim, Cashed is proved as Alfred and corrupt, as he is attacking the hero (my character is famously incorruptible)

-Yeroc's investigation failing meaning he's protecting me, while that may very well be his actual role. You have nothing that suggests otherwise.

If my claim is correct, my investigation proved you mafia. Anyone steadfastly protecting you is suspect. Combined that with his attack on me, his potentially traitorous name claim and oddly "failed" investigation that could have indicted you, he is guilty.

It doesn't matter if you're the hero or not, what matters is that you're wrong.

I have just proved to you why everything depends on my name claim and only on my name claim. And you are beginning to appeal to emotion instead of reason and logic in an argument: that proves nothing as emotion is relative only to the speaker.

 

[Scav]

Cashed: Do you think Virg is Mafia, or that he's flat out wrong?

You're not on the chopping block this round. If Marc ISNT Mafia, you STILL won't be on the chopping block next round. Name claiming Batman only serves the purpose of disrupting Virg.

With the options on the table, you simply can't believe Virg is Mafia and take this action. If he's Mafia, GOOD, he's dead next turn. I'll be voting for him immediately when day begins.

Since you aren't at risk this turn, and discrediting Virg has limited results should he be Mafia, then clearly you either think Virg is a lunatic townie, or you yourself are Mafia.

The only way Town suffers here is if Virg is both Town and Wrong. Which is why it's WEIRD to see everyone attacking Virg so vehemently.

 

[Cashed]

Scav, look how things worked out for me. I vote for Ricky immediately after the day begins, as he lied to his fellow towns (assuming he is one, he says he has a criminal past), which causes Xsyven to waste his investigation on me. We could very well know what's going on with him, Alt or Kevin, but because of withheld information, we have a wasted night action. After that Virg posts claiming I've suddenly switched sides because I voted for Ricky. That's a pretty large leap, don't you think? "Cashed voted for Ricky without consoling me, he must have turned!" I voted for Ricky because I honestly believe he's up to something. Let's not forget that I easily could have unvoted, but instead of talking to me, Virg says I'm turned. While I'm asleep. And like he already stated, he knows my sleeping habits. That only tells me that he has turned.

 

[Scav]

Alright, so you think he's Mafia?

 

[Cashed]

That'd be a yes.

And you know. I don't really want to go through the night being in a masonry with mafia member. I would assume that wouldn't end well.

 

[Scav]

Then lets vote for Marc. If Marc is Mafia, it proves Virg's innocence. If Marc isn't Mafia, we lynch Virg next round. I assure you, I'll vote for Virg. Presumably Yeroc and you will as well. Alt and Xsyven find him suspicious. If Virg is Mafia, we'll kill him next turn, and still be in a strong situation.

Regarding Masonry, just don't talk to him. If you're Batman, you have 4 powers at your disposal. Heal yourself.

 

[Scav]

Double post!

I didn't want to sound like I'm telling you what to do. Regarding Batman's powers, you can heal yourself, investigate someone, etc... all sorts of usefulness. But if survival is your concern, plus tipping your hand to Virg, then you can sit tight, heal yourself, and count on them not having a roleblocker since we already killed Medi. If they do have a roleblocker, they still need to contend with Xsyven and Yeroc.

 

[Cashed]

Scav, I see what you're saying but lynching Virg tomorrow would be the same as today. If I'm protecting myself at night, I can't investigate anyone, learning they are active mafia. Nobody else has the same type of investigations as I do.

 

[Virgilijus]

If I'm lying and Marc is town, then you guys have Xsyven (investigator), Ricky (thief) and the proclaimed Batman (Cashed) each able to do something. Mafia lost their role blocker: at least two of you will be able to investigate while I will immediately be voted next day without hesitation. It's no big deal.

How does that not work out for town?

 

[Scav]

Not true. Lynching Virg tonight earns us much less information. If he turns out to be Mafia, then we don't have much to go on, since Xsyven and I (two confirmed townies) are his staunchest supporters. It doesn't prove Marc's innocence, it doesn't get us closer to Yeroc or Alt or Rici or Kevin...

And besides, you'll still be a top target. Why would killing Virg, and proving you Batman, make you LESS of one and thus free to use your abilities?

If we kill Marc, we know both his role and, by deduction, Virg's.