I am going to get into the notion of "shieldcamping" for hopefully the last time. It is not nearly as good as some people are portraying it to be. I am mostly posting this part as an attempt to give closure to this issue that has dominated this discussion for too long. The important part of this post is lower, in an obvious place.
Shielding in general has two things that counter it. One is that shielding characters are grabbable, and grabs are a universal (if uneven in utility) option. The second is that shields deplete both with time and as they get hit. Letting your shield break is essentially never a viable option, and even if your shield isn't going to break, low shields do a horrible job of protecting the user as they are very easy to shieldstab.
So, if your opponent is shielding a lot, you have two basic options. You can attempt to grab them, or you can play for low shield on the opponent and then punish that. Let us consider Ganondorf now.
Ganondorf might play for a grab. His grab does indeed have somewhat poor range, but it is not unusably bad. Ice Climbers have worse grab range, and they have no problems with "shieldcamping" to say the least! Ganondorf has a 5% pummel and a very powerful fthrow (13% if I recall) so his reward for landing a grab is likely double his opponent's reward for grabbing him or getting some fast out of shield punish. He does have to work harder than most characters to land that grab, but playtesting and theory both suggest that the risk-reward in going for that grab is quite fair to Ganon if not leaning in his favor in a whole bunch of matchups.
Now option 2. The thing certain people keep stressing is that Ganon lacks safe pokes. Yes, this is true. However, Ganon's attacks are massively powerful which means he does massive shield damage on block. Of course, he gets punished after hitting the shield, but if the shield is low, blocking against Ganon is suddenly very scary. Shields deplete on their own too. If Ganon feints a few times and the opponents actually block each time (Ganon might be so crafty as to just stand there as though he's about to attack but actually doing nothing while the opponent just holds shield and increases their peril!), Ganon is really in a great position to begin his attack... which as we all know is more devastating than anyone else's. Also, consider the opponent's options if they are trapped in shield when Ganon does not attack. They could hold shield, but as we've covered, this only increases their peril. They could roll, but Wizard's Foot is a great rollchase that will probably hit them out of that for good damage and good position for Ganon. If Ganon can get Flame Choke, it's even better. Spotdodging against someone who isn't attacking in any way is basically asking to be hit by whatever the opponent wants to hit you with, and this is Ganondorf we're talking about. It's a non-viable option. Just dropping shield is non-instant, and Ganon can punish that with Wizard's Foot or Flame Choke most easily but also dtilt or walk up jab or walk up grab or sometimes even ftilt pretty viably (note that with Flame Choke, it's a command grab so the opponent still having the shield up when it hits is of no consequence to Ganon). The opponent could jump which puts them in Ganon uair territory with uair on Ganon being fast with good range and a move that most of the cast has no desire to trifle with. Being above Ganon also opens up Ganon's Dark Dive game which is incredibly deadly; you really just don't want to be above Ganon.
Of course things can be hard on Ganon in the sense that he can't be throwing down threats pre-emptively like most other characters, but he still has access to the very powerful universal options against shielding which include punishing the opponent for shielding at inappropriate times. And, yes, the opponent is going to be playing extremely defensively against Ganon (and Bowser and DK and any other heavyweight you care to mention). Our design all along presumed this; it's not some revelation that extremely defensive play is the best option for most of the cast against them. Against a heavyweight powerhouse character, playing loosely is simply not an option. You trade hits against them and you lose. Their opportunities are worth more than your opportunities so you need to minimize the number of opportunities all around. Playing defensively isn't a free pass either though because of the way it limits the user's options and how even shielding itself isn't actually safe if the opponent is in an appropriately positioned neutral position. The whole battle is the heavyweight trying to find that one crack in the armor while the defender shuffles imperfect shields in an attempt to protect himself.
I really can't stress enough how much playtesting we've locally given Ganon (probably one of the top 5 most playtested characters) and how consistently he's demonstrated himself to be fine. I really went into the theory deeply here, theory backed up by not only my local play but also very obviously demonstrated in high level play of standard Brawl (how much "sheildcamping" do you see Mew2King and Ally do... almost none). Shielding is very powerful in context, but shielding is not completely safe and does not defeat any characters by itself. It just does not happen. The only times it seems to work is when the person executing it is correctly baiting a bunch of unsafe attacks, but in that case, the true victor is baiting, not "shieldcamping". Of course, baiting is exceptionally good in Brawl; if you can trick the opponent into doing what you want them to do, your path to victory grows ever easier. Of course, everyone can bait, from Meta Knight to Ganon. It's more about players at that point.
Ganon has dominated way too much discussion time regardless. The only thing really worth talking about on him are these "worst matchups". I am not the greatest Ganon player, but as I explored him personally, the only matchup I found that seemed kinda dumb to me was Olimar. Of course, Thinkaman assures me that Ganon v Olimar is winnable for Ganon, and Thinkaman is a way better Ganon than me. I'm curious about everyone's experiences on both the Olimar matchup and other specific matchups that seem to be Ganon's worst.
As per Captain Falcon, personally I haven't seen too much of him as he's really Thinkaman's forte. His horrible range/priority is something that I, as a player, really just plain don't enjoy dealing with, but I've seen it made to work before (because, like literally every weakness, you can play around it by trying to define the game on the basis of your strengths). I know the knee is definitely reasonable to land in real matches; it just requires you to be really precise and probably to have spent a lot of time on Captain Falcon in particular. A2 is probably pretty on-point with Captain Falcon being technical actually; he and Fox both require some real finger gymnastics to play them right (also, even though she doesn't seem to need it to me, does anyone else notice that all actual Sheik players are stupidly technical?).
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We're getting to the point where we need to really start focusing on the next edition. I think after this weekend I'll be able to get Thinkaman, my cohort in this, more involved. Regardless, I'd like to really focus things on getting more useful data here, and unlike previous attempts that petered out quickly, I'm going to try to hyper-focus it one character at a time. The first one will be one that I suspect will be very easy to get discussion about.
Mario
I'll start with what I've seen of Mario.
Mario is pretty good mostly. His only really glaring weakness is a general issue of low disjointedness on his attacks (remember, all attacks are at least partially disjointed in Brawl), but a decent projectile as well as his fsmash/Cape make this a non-absolute weakness. Mario's KO power is merely average, but average isn't a horrible place to be, especially since he has decent enough diversity in his KO options to play around staleness (that is, he can safely use some of his KO moves for damage racking depending on matchup) and to give him room to mix up a bit when going for that KO (his bane in standard Brawl: you knew he was ultimately going for that fsmash).
As per matchups, Mario seems capable in every matchup with his worst being ones where the opponent is especially good at picking at his achilles heel of range/priority. Mr. Game & Watch seems to still solidly beat Mario, and I suspect he wouldn't enjoy really solid ICs or Marth either. Of course, he still has hope in those matchups as, while his range/priority are generally low, he has things like Fireballs he can use to play at the spacing game a bit, disrupt it, and then run in and reposition to redefine the conflict on terms more favorable to Mario. Of course, the fact that he doesn't have overwhelming strengths can be another issue. Basically any opponent who specializes in something is going to do it better than Mario does it. The heavyweights are stronger, the speed characters are faster, and anyone really built around a projectile game will leave Mario wishing he'd never even thought about zoning with his Fireballs. This gives all opponents, even those ill-suited to picking at Mario's real weakness, something to aim for in their matchups with Mario, and it's also a safeguard that Mario is never looking at some overwhelming factor in any matchup so great that everything else stops mattering. I strongly suspect Mario doesn't look at any matchups outside of the range 60-40 to 40-60, all things considered.
As per stages, Mario doesn't seem to have strong preferences to me. He has a decent game both in the air and grounded, vertical and horizontal. Mario has an average time at dealing with walk-offs, average positioning ability to deal with movement, and an average game of forcing people into hazards. If I were playing Mario, I'd mostly focus my stage selection on the opponent's weaknesses and not my own strengths; it's going to be easier to find a stage bad for the other character than good for Mario. That being said, I find Balanced Brawl's new stage options mostly inconsequential for Mario and likely to remain that way with future changes.
I'm not sure I see the need for Mario to change. He's good, but he's really not "too good", and I would not place him in the highest tier (though I would place him in the top half pretty easily). I don't have serious questions about his viability or about him seriously harming the viability of others. Perhaps people who have spent more time with Mario disagree.
That being said, does anyone else have any serious analysis of Mario and what needs to happen relative to Mario in the next version? Here are things that are specifically interesting...
-Best/worst matchups
-Serious impact by Bbrawl's stage list
-Degenerate strategies involving Mario (either abuses he can perpetuate or abuses especially effective against him)
-Detailed information on specific matchups involving Mario, even ones that are not radical (like, if you know, say, Mario vs DK as a matchup really well, we definitely appreciate you sharing even if your conclusion is that it's about 50-50)
I still question the power of ledgestalling, but we really do intend for mechanics changes to weaken it as a tactic regardless for the next version (it's in research as per implementation) so please everyone spare us stuff like "Meta Knight ledgestalling" as a counter for the entire cast. Regardless of whether you're right or wrong on that issue, it's not helpful because we're going to do everything we can to pre-empt that issue.
So, it's Mario time. I know he's seen a lot of play so I'm hoping it will be easy to really get a broad sense of his potential. Just, please, let's keep things calm as we do this; I really don't want anyone feeling dissuaded from saying what they want to say. I know I can be as guilty as anyone of being overly dismissive and discouraging people from posting so take it from me when I say we need to try to be inviting enough for everyone to want to say their piece.