A "Post Metaknight" Marth

[Remzi]

There has been a lot of discussion going on about possibly banning the infamous Metaknight. I'm sure most of you are familiar with this topic:

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=197057

So as I was reading this topic, I found a good deal of discussion regarding the metagame after the absence of MK. Many posters including Yuna mentioned Marth as possibly becoming the new dominant force in Brawl if MK were to be banned. Their reasoning simply because: "He has no bad matchups except for MK."

I found this rather absurd, although Marth may have terrific matchups, he goes even with about a 4th of the cast, and doesn't really have too many **** matchups. Plus, to be honest I've never really been convinced that Marth vs Snake is only 55:45, or that we go even with D3. But aside from that, he doesn't really destroy most of the lower characters, and goes even with most of the tops/highs. That being said, most tourney players are using high and top tier characters anyways, therefore they won't really have to be making any changes in their character choice to face a Marth. And if they are using a lower tiered character, they're probably fortunate to be fighting against a Marth, considering Falco, ROB, Snake, and maybe even D3 do a much better job of tearing apart weaker characters.

So the way I see it, not too many people will really be changing characters against a Marth, unless they already were to begin with. In which case Snake still has a slight advantage on him so they can always use him as a (sorta) counter.

tl;dr version: Stop being a lazy *** and take 2-3 minutes out of your day to read my 3 paragraphs.

So now I ask, what are your thoughts on Marth possibly becoming the best character, or even rising at all, if MK were to be banned?

*EDIT: Something I forgot to add, Marth is a less extreme case of TL, in that he is amazing on paper, but doesn't tend to do as well as expected in most cases. Unlike MK who ***** on paper and ***** in game.

 

[feardragon64]

tl;dr version: Stop being a lazy *** and take 2-3 minutes out of your day to read my 3 paragraphs.

I read like the first 4 sentences then noticed the tl;dr version. Dammit.

It's similar to what you said. Saying Marth will be the new mk is bull****. Granted he may gain a little more status since his worst match-up(20 point difference with a 40:60 mk match-up) will be gone, it's not going to be a huge change. While it's only slight advantages, people can still cp snake or possibly DDD(arguably). Also, a big thing about mk was that he was noob friendly. Marth is not noob friendly. He's a character who requires a ****load of effort to get good with, so even without his worst match-up, he won't be dominating the tournaments because there really aren't THAT many people who will play him to his potential that gives him these nearly even match-ups. A few people will dominate with marth, but as you said, his match-ups are still near even so most of the other top tier characters could still contend with him just fine.

Like I began, saying Marth will be the new mk is bullcrap.

But honestly, who cares? If mk gets banned, yippie. Until then, things really don't change that much for Marth minus having one bad match-up to deal with.

 

[VietGeek]

I do have to admit I like looking at things on paper (referencing characters I exclusively play). I mean, then I rub my hands on the paper and it feels so nice...unless I get a paper cut. =(

Anyway, Yuna is speculating that because if MK is banned, Marth is the safest choice. He has winnable odds against everyone, therefore being a safe pick for a main. MK is a dominant force because he has safe match-ups against everyone too, except he also ***** a good number of the cast with 70:30 or worst as well. People flock to him not only because he's on the top of the tierlist, but that he is safe character to play with and you can just exclusively main him without the need to maintain a secondary.

Once he's banned, players would then try to find someone that could be that "safe" choice. Marth is a candidate because he's very similar to Meta Knight as well, meaning past MK players could find some familiarity, which everyone likes. But I think Game and Watch has a large amount of safe match-ups as well so he's another choice.

But anyway, we've seen top finishers have to carry around MK for large tourneys as a secondary. Without MK, we could assume people would main and second characters that more or less cover weaknesses of their main, which could be Marth. Only time will tell I suppose.

TL;DR:

Stop being a hater and read my posts **** it.

 

[Remzi]

Feardragon you brought up an awesome point. Our matchups are assuming that both players are at the top level of play. That being said, Marth is one of the most difficult characters to pick up and IMO the second hardest character to master after Yoshi. Most tourney level Marths probably aren't going to be playing Marth near the peak of his metagame, while most of the characters that Marth breaks even with will probably be playing at a very high level for their character; therefore putting Marth at a disadvantage in most tourney matches.

And even if the Marth somehow does reach his full potential, he only breaks even with the better characters in the game.

MK is a completely different story because he is easy to pick up, he is amazing, and his matchups are ****.


Viet: Marth's style may be similar to Metaknights, but being good with Metaknight takes very little effort and time. So most MK's transferring to Marth will have a very difficult time using Marth effectively, and would probably end up not following through with the character switch.

Also, Marth may have these really safe matchups, but so few Marths are able to play at the level we discuss here that its almost not even worth mentioning IMO.

 

[feardragon64]

Also, Marth may have these really safe matchups, but so few Marths are able to play at the level we discuss here that its almost not even worth mentioning IMO.

Exactly. Marth is HIGHLY disadvantaged in a lot of match-ups in most battles because honestly on some levels Marth is an impractical character because some of the stuff he can do that gives him good match-ups aren't something that can be expected without a LOT of skill. Marth's game depends on assessing a situation with risks and rewards so instantaneously that you just can't expect that many people to actually do it successfully. It's just not going to happen. I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's improbable that people will actually put up with it. Most will settle for people with more gimicky options that make life easier like DDD with his chain grab, etc.

 

[Steel]

Like it's been said... There are very few Marth's that actually know what they are doing. We are basing the match up ratios off of a Marth at his highest level of play.

 

[Emblem Lord]

I find that Marth is exactly what he is on paper.

A strong character with exploitable weaknesses.

 

[SirroMinus1]

Marth is cool, but when he jumps he's ice.

 

[Remzi]

I find that Marth is exactly what he is on paper.

A strong character with exploitable weaknesses.

I guess what I meant there is that he isn't preforming as well as he should; not because whats on paper doesn't work, but that not many can do what it says to on paper. Catching my drift here?

Also, would you mind explaining your thoughts on him possibly becoming the best character? Or at least becoming significantly better?

 

[Emblem Lord]

????????

You are funny Bengalz.

Marth is performing exactly how he should. He consistently hits top 8's and top 4's.

He is performing the way a high tier character should.

I don't quite understand you.

I guess you feel like Marth should be doing better, but I don't think so at all.

And Marth won't be played all that much if MK gets banned. He doesn't have any gimmicks and has a steep learning curve.

 

[Remzi]

Haha =P

To me, Marth's matchups alone say that he should be placing around 2nd or 3rd in tourney results. For instance, let's take a look at the Marth vs MK matchup. We have it listed as 60:40 in MK's favor. However, to my knowledge, MK wins that matchup in a tourney far more often than 60% of the time. It just seems like Marth has the right tools to dominate, but its just too **** hard to use them properly for most people. Hell the only Marth I've even seen that can beat skilled MKs is Roy_R.

And I agree with you about people not picking up Marth after the possible MK ban, people saying that just sounded preposterous to me.

BTW I lold hard at your sig

 

[Steel]

Note that the characters Marth has to face the most in tournaments are the top tier characters. He has advatages on only Falco and GW.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Ok, here is the thing guys. I'm going to tell you the truth about match-ups. Realistically, a match-up ratio isn't probability. It's more of a scale that represents how tilted the match-up is in one character's favor.

And the thing about 60/40 match-ups or worse is that realistically you aren't going to be winning them with any real amount of consistency.

You will win if you are more skilled then your opponent and you may win vs an equally skilled opponent occasionally. But if you do 2 or 3 40/60 match-ups in a row in tourney...you will lose. If your opponents are of your skill level or better.

You

will

lose.


That's the honest truth.

 

[darkspatan117]

marth is ok in brawl but doesn't matter at high level only MK and Snake do ! But in melee he is considered the best but isn't fox is 1st on the tier list

 

[feardragon64]

Ok, here is the thing guys. I'm going to tell you the truth about match-ups. Realistically, a match-up ratio isn't probability. It's more of a scale that represents how tilted the match-up is in one character's favor.

And the thing about 60/40 match-ups or worse is that realistically you aren't going to be winning them with any real amount of consistency.

You will win if you are more skilled then your opponent and you may win vs an equally skilled opponent occasionally. But if you do 2 or 3 40/60 match-ups in a row in tourney...you will lose. If your opponents are of your skill level or better.

You

will

lose.


That's the honest truth.

Was there another way were were supposed to look at it? Besides match-ups are incredibly theoretical since you're assuming two players of EQUAL skill level. It's basically just an attempt to compare the maximum potential of characters without factoring in the actual skill of players(by assuming the players of the highest, but equal skill).

 

[Remzi]

If thats the case, then it doesn't seem like there is a big enough window for close to even matchups.

Its like

50:50 is even
55:45 is almost even
60:40 is the 60 almost always wins

I was never under the impression 60/40's were that big of disadvantages though, I guess I've been reading into these matchups wrong

 

[Emblem Lord]

60/40's are still winnable by a reasonable amount. But when you have to do several in row, that's when you run into problems.

 

[Remzi]

Well that basically means winning a set, unless by several in a row you mean 3-4. In which case 6/4s are far more difficult then I understood them to be.

 

[Emblem Lord]

I mean several sets in a row. One set isn't that big a deal.

But when you have to fight 3 MK's in a row...then. >_>

 

[Remzi]

Ah I see, that makes sense now. Thanks

But beating one MK is still pretty darn rare for me, let alone three...

 

[Emblem Lord]

Well...we may also need to re-evaluate the MK match-up again.

It could very well be worse then 60/40.

Although I really don't think so.

 

[Steel]

We could be done the match ups as soon as tomorrow, so we will definitely rediscuss the top 5 or 6 or so... bar one or two... and maybe DK again.

 

[Remzi]

Yea Steel and EL, that sounds like a good idea. The only matchups I'm really concerned with would be the following (along with what I think it is):

First number being Marth, second being the character listed

MK: 35:65
Snake: 40:60
Dedede: 45:55 or 40:60
Toon Link: 55:45
DK: 55:45
G&W: 50:50
Fox: 65:35

I'm not really giving these my full thought, just rough estimates.


K, lets go back on topic now pl0x

 

[¯\_S.(ツ).L.I.D._/¯]

Marth vs. MK is NOT 65-35 imo... Marth is definitely worse than MK, but that is not because he is bad. The main thing that you have to take into account when discussing that matchup is that MK is not better by a lot in any category except for recovery. If you give it some thought, MK outclasses Marth in just about every category (except for tippers O.o) but not by a lot, like with Gimping: MK is definitely the best gimper in the game, right? But Marth is thought by many to be the second or third best gimper in the game, maybe behind some other people. And with killing, MK is only better because he has spammable kill moves. If Marth could effectively spam Fsmash like MK can spam Dsmash, he would be just as good if not better than MK in this aspect.


This is just my opinion, you don't have to agree with me.

 

[VietGeek]

Toon Link: 55:45

Yeah...no. Toon Link is 60:40 to Marth. I stand by this passionately. ^_^

 

[¯\_S.(ツ).L.I.D._/¯]

Ya, TL is good, but Viet is right... Marth vs. TL is not even. That would be saying the same thing as that TL is about as good against Marth as D3...

 

[Shaya]

Well...we may also need to re-evaluate the MK match-up again.

It could very well be worse then 60/40.

Although I really don't think so.

I recall saying this not too long ago, but WAS SHAFTED ;_;.

I don't think it's worse than 60/40.
And since the initial discussion Marth's discovered ds out of shield; and can kill a lot earlier than MK can kill him with upward attacks...
Just.. MKs have their 'combos', their smarter gimping...

I don't play American MKs though, I'm not aware of their metagame shooting up -that much- since when we last discussed it.

 

[¯\_S.(ツ).L.I.D._/¯]

The MK metagame is stagnant, i don't think anything else will really be found out about him in Brawl except for maybe a few minor glitches.

 

[Remzi]

SOLID:

I am fairly certain that the Marth vs MK matchup is worse than 60:40. One primary reason is that Marths recovery is bad and MK has the best gimping ability in the game. Also, although marth is one of the best gimpers in the game, that ability is useless to him against MK because of his insane recovery. That being said, even on stage MK is far superior to Marth. Unless the Marth has superhuman reactions, most mach tornados will hit and to a good amount of damage. Also, good MK's space so well that it's near impossible to get a shield grab on him. So our grab releases don't really have too much of an effect here. His dtilt outranges yours, his fair outranges yours, and basically everyone of his moves has zero lag. Oh yea, and theres that dsmash of his, forgot to mention that >_>

And I said that D3 has a 55:45 or 60:40 advantage on Marth. So that makes D3's matchup 10-15 points harder IMO.

Viet:

I have a ton of experience with this matchup, and I strongly believe that it is closer to even.

For one, there's TL's crazy projectile game. All 3 of his projectiles are great for walls and setups. Marth can deal with most of it, but you will be hit by them more than you'd like, and when you do it'll likely lead to a follow up, whether it be an usmash, grab, or something of that nature. Also, his projectiles force you to approach, so you can't play the same campy game we all love.

TL's defense is awesome, the 1 reason for that being his zair, bombs, and shield grab IMO. A perfectly spaced fair from Marth can be shield grabbed by TL, i've tested this plenty of times, and its true. And a nontipped dtilt can be shield grabbed as well. If he PS's a tipped dtilt he can still shieldgrab because there will be no pushback. Marths two main offensive options can be shieldgrabbed quite easily. Then theres the pesky zair, it outranges all of your options, autocancels, and is extremely safe. If you shield it, he's not in any danger as he has plenty of time to reset the situation upon landing. If you airdodge he can follow up with a grab, bomb throw, etc. Any offensive option you attempt will simply be outreached. With the bombs i'm just referring to JC bomb drops out of shield, holding a bomb in shield to stop shield pressure, and retreating bomb throws. The thing is that TL's defense is about as good as Marths offense, and thats pretty much what will be going on in this matchup.

 

[¯\_S.(ツ).L.I.D._/¯]

Hmm... I don't agree with you but I see what you're saying Remzi... I guess you have a point...

And I accepted your AiB friend request from like a minth ago...

 

[Remzi]

Haha, just checked it

Also, anything in particular you don't agree with about the matchup? I still don't know how we came to the conclusion 60:40 in the first place, I don't think I was around during that discussion so I'm not sure what happened...

 

[VietGeek]

Viet:

I have a ton of experience with this matchup, and I strongly believe that it is closer to even.

For one, there's TL's crazy projectile game. All 3 of his projectiles are great for walls and setups. Marth can deal with most of it, but you will be hit by them more than you'd like, and when you do it'll likely lead to a follow up, whether it be an usmash, grab, or something of that nature. Also, his projectiles force you to approach, so you can't play the same campy game we all love.

TL's defense is awesome, the 1 reason for that being his zair, bombs, and shield grab IMO. A perfectly spaced fair from Marth can be shield grabbed by TL, i've tested this plenty of times, and its true. And a nontipped dtilt can be shield grabbed as well. If he PS's a tipped dtilt he can still shieldgrab because there will be no pushback. Marths two main offensive options can be shieldgrabbed quite easily. Then theres the pesky zair, it outranges all of your options, autocancels, and is extremely safe. If you shield it, he's not in any danger as he has plenty of time to reset the situation upon landing. If you airdodge he can follow up with a grab, bomb throw, etc. Any offensive option you attempt will simply be outreached. With the bombs i'm just referring to JC bomb drops out of shield, holding a bomb in shield to stop shield pressure, and retreating bomb throws. The thing is that TL's defense is about as good as Marths offense, and thats pretty much what will be going on in this matchup.

Falco can consistently reset the situation w/ phantasm and has a projectile wall that rivals TL's, as well as racks damage and kills better than Toon Link. That match-up is 60:40.

Once you get into Toon Link and pressure him, his defense slowly starts to crumble apart. Granted getting in is hard sometimes, but once you get in, it's pretty easy to stay in. Once you get into range, Zair will come out too slow and your Fair will stuff it. Unlike Falco, once Toon Link is pressured, he can't just side-B to the other side of the stage and start shooting lasers again, he's got to find a way to get out and against Marth, that's difficult.

Granted TL has a more varied projectile wall, a decent Zair for spacing, and a better recovery than Falco, but I can't see how this match is close to even with Falco has better tools to keep Marth away and scores a 60:40. What TL has to offer simply neutralizes with what Falco has to offer that TL doesn't have.

If you know what I mean. I guess playing Toon Link, and actually fighting a Toon Link gives you different perceptions of potential.

Feel free to try to refute anything. I'll answer in the morning probably.

 

[Remzi]

Falco has trouble killing, I'd say TL is able to kill just as early and more safely. He just has to create openings.

Getting in through TL's defense is very difficult. And once you do get in, you'll probably nail him a couple of times and the situation will reset. Why does his defense "crumble" after you get in? TL has excellent stage control, he shouldn't have much trouble regaining position and putting Marth in the same position he had him at before. One example would be to simply shield grab a Marth fair, fthrow, and reset positions. It really isnt that hard for him to escape...

Another thing is that once you do get inside, TL's aerials are very deceptive in terms of range, it's not hard to eat a nair or fair even though your range is slightly superior.

TL's projectile wall works about as well as Falcos, but he is able to space better, keep Marth out longer, and kill Marth earlier than Falco can. I see no reason as to why this matchup would be easier for Falco than TL.

Also, Marth can gimp Falco pretty well, TL's recovery is one of the best in the game and is very difficult to gimp. On the other side, TL has an excellent edge guarding game, and Marth's recovery is rather poor, so you'll see a lot of early deaths for Marth in this matchup too. If anything, TL will at least rack up damage with projectiles every time Marth leaves the stage.

 

[Pierce7d]

Marth vs MK is 40:60 MK's favor. Trust me.

 

[Remzi]

Care to elaborate?

 

[bludhoundz]

Falco has trouble killing, I'd say TL is able to kill just as early and more safely. He just has to create openings.

Getting in through TL's defense is very difficult. And once you do get in, you'll probably nail him a couple of times and the situation will reset. Why does his defense "crumble" after you get in? TL has excellent stage control, he shouldn't have much trouble regaining position and putting Marth in the same position he had him at before. One example would be to simply shield grab a Marth fair, fthrow, and reset positions. It really isnt that hard for him to escape...

Another thing is that once you do get inside, TL's aerials are very deceptive in terms of range, it's not hard to eat a nair or fair even though your range is slightly superior.

TL's projectile wall works about as well as Falcos, but he is able to space better, keep Marth out longer, and kill Marth earlier than Falco can. I see no reason as to why this matchup would be easier for Falco than TL.

Also, Marth can gimp Falco pretty well, TL's recovery is one of the best in the game and is very difficult to gimp. On the other side, TL has an excellent edge guarding game, and Marth's recovery is rather poor, so you'll see a lot of early deaths for Marth in this matchup too. If anything, TL will at least rack up damage with projectiles every time Marth leaves the stage.

How are you going to shieldgrab Marth's fair? Since when is he landing in grab range? Also what made him decide to fair instead of just dtilt.. which TL has 0 responses to whatsoever. The reason his defensive game crumbles once Marth gets in is that all his projectiles are unusable. If he tries one of them, he's going to get punished. Without that projectile wall, his up close defense is a lot worse, because Marth can just stand out of his range and use his hard to punish options on TL.

Deception is only useful if you don't actually know how far they reach. If the Marth player has any matchup knowledge, TL's aerials are going to be outspaced most of the time.

It's easier for Falco because he can RESET the spacing. Once Marth is zoning TL, he has no easy way to get to the other side of Marth and begin his projectile wall again. Falco does. If the Marth plays it smart, TL isn't going to be able to reset the spacing so easily and he will be on the losing end of the exchange for quite a while.

Since when is TL's recovery one of the best in the game?

It's pretty good, and it goes further than Marth's but it's really just as linear (other than your second option of hookshot, but only at close range). It's also less SAFE than Marth's. He takes longer to recover in his animation. Dolphin slash moves incredibly quickly so the window where you can be hit is small (also invincibility at the beginning). Marth can easily jump out and hit TL out of his recovery with a fair (which outranges TL's up b considerably).

He can throw out projectiles at Marth, yes, but fair swats away arrows and the boomerang, while bombs can be caught or dodged. I'm not saying he won't be hit, but he's not necessarily going to be hit every time TL throws out a few projectiles. And if TL decides to go offstage for a gimp, well, he's probably going to be the one ending up getting gimped.

There was already a discussion thread for this, if you want to go back there and see why the matchup was decided 60:40 Marth's favor. Most of the Marths on the boards agreed on it (I'd assume since it was the final verdict), and I'll bet the TL boards agreed too.

 

[Pierce7d]

Marth has reasonably good answers to everything MK does. You simply have to know them. The main thing to really look out for in this match-up is actually standard DI. That Dsmash is super gimpy, as well as certain angles of Shuttle Loop. Not getting hit is obviously unrealistic, but reflexively pushing up the second that Dsmash connects is the difference between your stock or your opponent's.

 

[Remzi]

How are you going to shieldgrab Marth's fair? Since when is he landing in grab range? Also what made him decide to fair instead of just dtilt.. which TL has 0 responses to whatsoever. The reason his defensive game crumbles once Marth gets in is that all his projectiles are unusable. If he tries one of them, he's going to get punished. Without that projectile wall, his up close defense is a lot worse, because Marth can just stand out of his range and use his hard to punish options on TL.

Deception is only useful if you don't actually know how far they reach. If the Marth player has any matchup knowledge, TL's aerials are going to be outspaced most of the time.

It's easier for Falco because he can RESET the spacing. Once Marth is zoning TL, he has no easy way to get to the other side of Marth and begin his projectile wall again. Falco does. If the Marth plays it smart, TL isn't going to be able to reset the spacing so easily and he will be on the losing end of the exchange for quite a while.

Since when is TL's recovery one of the best in the game?

It's pretty good, and it goes further than Marth's but it's really just as linear (other than your second option of hookshot, but only at close range). It's also less SAFE than Marth's. He takes longer to recover in his animation. Dolphin slash moves incredibly quickly so the window where you can be hit is small (also invincibility at the beginning). Marth can easily jump out and hit TL out of his recovery with a fair (which outranges TL's up b considerably).

He can throw out projectiles at Marth, yes, but fair swats away arrows and the boomerang, while bombs can be caught or dodged. I'm not saying he won't be hit, but he's not necessarily going to be hit every time TL throws out a few projectiles. And if TL decides to go offstage for a gimp, well, he's probably going to be the one ending up getting gimped.

There was already a discussion thread for this, if you want to go back there and see why the matchup was decided 60:40 Marth's favor. Most of the Marths on the boards agreed on it (I'd assume since it was the final verdict), and I'll bet the TL boards agreed too.

I've thoroughly tested this, even if Marth hits TL's shield with the very tip of his fair he is in range of TL's hookshot. If the dtilt is not tipped, TL can shield grab, if the dtilt is tipped, TL can roll away which is pretty much everyones best option in this situation. If he PSs the dtilt then he is still in range to shield grab. And TL is going to be in the air the majority of the time when Marth is trying to zone. The reason for that is because he will be using zair more than any other aerial as it is his only way of outranging all of marth's options. That being said dtilt won't do marth too much good as long as TL isn't grounded. Once Marth gets close to TL, he may not be able to use projectiles, but he still has his zair, and his sword is fairly close to Marth's in range, so its not rare that Marth will get hit even when zoning well.

As I explained earlier, TL can shield grab a lot, if he grabs Marth, a fthrow is all it takes to reset his positioning and begin his projectile wall again.

And what Makes TL's recovery so good to me is his second jump, although the distance on his up B is ridiculous >_> That plus bombos makes his recovery great. And because of the repeated attacks it can't be edgehogged if timed correctly by TL. And most TL's either get back to the ledge with their double jump or go low to recover, in which case a fair won't be doing you much good. He can also throw out his boomerang to stop Marth from gimping him.

And why exactly is a good TL goint to get gimped if he comes out to edgeguard now? You have me confused with that one.

 

[Emblem Lord]

I don't think the TL match-up is really debatable. He can't fight Marth head on. He doesn't have the tools really.

 

[Pierce7d]

It's problems like this which is why we have ftilt. Fair-> Jab is too good btw.