Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[|RK|]

So, one of the reasons I don't have a problem with Witch Twist's speed is because I felt like it had the same use as a tilt. After playing around with her in friendlies, I recognized how difficult it was to run up Witch Twist someone. You have to be reeeeaaalllyy close. And it makes sense:

Because the set frame modifiers are working on Smash Forge now, it means I can do Bayonetta moves without them having incorrect frame data. pic.twitter.com/1oER6LHUBe

— Kurogane Hammer (@KuroganeHammer) July 20, 2017

If you're above her, it's kinda silly. Incredibly vertically disjointed. But horizontally? Kinda fair.

 

[Iron Kraken]

In a world without any DLC characters at all, Fox would be far and away the clear #1 in the game, sporting only a bad matchup against Sheik and a moderately difficult one with Rosalina.


(if you tell me that Fox loses to Luigi or Kirby I swear I will f-air footstool you into oblivion)

Fox far and away #1 without DLC? I must disagree. In a world without DLC, Rosa would be the best in the game right now.

She clearly beats both Diddy and Sheik (which other character in the game can say this?), beats Fox as you mention, goes no worse than even against Mario and Sonic (and I would argue she has a slight advantage in those matchups), and then just obliterates a huge percentage of the cast like Ryu, Luigi, etc.

Meta Knight would literally be her only bad matchup, and that matchup is completely surmountable.

DLC is the only thing that keeps her in check - she loses to Cloud (who also happens to be the easiest character for good players to pocket), loses to Bayo IMO (despite Dabuz's good track record against her), and I believe she also loses to Mewtwo. Even Corrin isn't great for her, I would say that matchup is even-ish.

So yeah, I still think Rosa is somewhere in the Top 5 even with DLC, but she would definitely be #1 in the game right now without DLC.

 

[Bowserboy3]

So, one of the reasons I don't have a problem with Witch Twist's speed is because I felt like it had the same use as a tilt. After playing around with her in friendlies, I recognized how difficult it was to run up Witch Twist someone. You have to be reeeeaaalllyy close. And it makes sense:

Because the set frame modifiers are working on Smash Forge now, it means I can do Bayonetta moves without them having incorrect frame data. pic.twitter.com/1oER6LHUBe

— Kurogane Hammer (@KuroganeHammer) July 20, 2017

If you're above her, it's kinda silly. Incredibly vertically disjointed. But horizontally? Kinda fair.

Another thing that makes run up Witch Twist a little trickier is I am pretty sure you need to be out of that initial dash animation before you can Witch Twist (at least if my memory serves correctly). If you are a distance where, say, Dtilt is just out of reach, it can be hard to safely set up that combo, because you can dash towards your opponent, but you can't always hit the Twist on time. Most players will go for a dash grab and attempt an Up Throw (which doesn't set up for anything if dealt with correctly anyways).

On the ground, straight from the ground, Dtilt is usually always the better combo starter, seeing as you get more freedom to do what you want after you hit it; could be Fair 1, Utilt and Uair (depending on DI), Twist or even an ABK etc.

 

[Ulevo]

Another thing that makes run up Witch Twist a little trickier is I am pretty sure you need to be out of that initial dash animation before you can Witch Twist (at least if my memory serves correctly). If you are a distance where, say, Dtilt is just out of reach, it can be hard to safely set up that combo, because you can dash towards your opponent, but you can't always hit the Twist on time. Most players will go for a dash grab and attempt an Up Throw (which doesn't set up for anything if dealt with correctly anyways).

On the ground, straight from the ground, Dtilt is usually always the better combo starter, seeing as you get more freedom to do what you want after you hit it; could be Fair 1, Utilt and Uair (depending on DI), Twist or even an ABK etc.

You can just jump cancel the Witch Twist which works out of a dash.

 

[ArnoldPalmer]

Fox far and away #1 without DLC? I must disagree. In a world without DLC, Rosa would be the best in the game right now.

She clearly beats both Diddy and Sheik (which other character in the game can say this?), beats Fox as you mention, goes no worse than even against Mario and Sonic (and I would argue she has a slight advantage in those matchups), and then just obliterates a huge percentage of the cast like Ryu, Luigi, etc.

Meta Knight would literally be her only bad matchup, and that matchup is completely surmountable.

DLC is the only thing that keeps her in check - she loses to Cloud (who also happens to be the easiest character for good players to pocket), loses to Bayo IMO (despite Dabuz's good track record against her), and I believe she also loses to Mewtwo. Even Corrin isn't great for her, I would say that matchup is even-ish.

So yeah, I still think Rosa is somewhere in the Top 5 even with DLC, but she would definitely be #1 in the game right now without DLC.

Without DLC a few more characters would have relevance again. Ike could easily end up being a bad matchup for the same reasons Cloud is a bad matchup. Also, what happened to ZSS and Falcon being bad for her?

 

[Ziodyne 21]

I could imagine Gluttony and would really get some great results since all of Wario's worst MU's would be gone with no DLC (Cloud, Bayo, Mewtwo) I so want to see Gluttony go to Alternate End to see how his amazing Wario play can go without running into DLC

Villager my be able to be considered top 15 again for similar reasons considering how DLC really wrecked Villagers results overall.

 

[Kung Fu Treachery]

A long while ago, I wrote something like, Mewtwo's biggest weakness is the psychological damage it can inflict on its own players. Kind of like how Sheik players get worn down by having to win neutral over and over as they progress deeper into a bracket, Mewtwo players have to contend with how frail their character is in high-stakes, high-pressure situations. It can cause players to crack and panic. Many times, you can literally see Abadango getting flustered, and playing Mewtwo without a calm mind (no pun intended) is a recipe for disaster.

It's sort of like if they turned ZSS's grab into a character.

Watching Mewtwo vs. Diddy, it's frequently a battle of inches, as the two slowly wear each other down. Diddy's better frame data, amazing fair, and the fact that the Diddy meta is led by the world's best player nudges the damage output slightly in Diddy's favor.

Yeah, light weight and no combo-breaker means Mewtwo is really punishing. I've found that it's easy to have a negative mindset, partially because Mewtwo has so many versatile options before he gets to disadvantage. Getting hit by things makes me feel like an idiot, but you gotta shake it off; mistakes happen.

The thing that really stands out as strange about Mewtwo among top tiers, in my opinion, is how fragmented his player base is in terms of style and technique. There's often discussion of how Zack and Salem maximize different parts of Bayo, but this is at least equally true of Mewtwo.

The character can be a defensive wall, but WaDi is the only one who really maximizes that, constantly playing by the edge and abusing the variations and safety of Mewtwo's recovery. It's no coincidence that he's the top Mewtwo who's most optimistic about the Diddy matchup; he takes the most advantage of Shadow Ball by far (particularly its momentum stopping as a recovery mixup), and being near the edge makes it more likely that you'll fall off the stage when Diddy hits you with something, messing with his ability to confirm into kills. WaDi plays the matchup the best, though Abadango has beaten MVD with Mewtwo, and I believe Aba could do as well against ZeRo as he does with MK if he really committed to the camping slog.

Mewtwo also has edge cancels and a footstool kill confirm, yet only one of his top players uses them with any real consistency (Aba), which is confusing. N-air to footstool is hard, but it's not like it's impossible for any Mewtwo but Aba to pull off. I've seen people other than Aba try it, but no one does it consistently except him. I feel Aba is also better at aggressive edge guarding than other Mewtwos, though I'm not sure if that's a widely held opinion. I've seen WaDi do weird followups out of N-air that no other player employs (up smash, somehow). It's like there's no one who actually uses all of the character's strengths at once. I can't figure it out. It's not even all about style, like people said with Salem and Zack. There are plenty of ways to employ edge cancels in a defensive style, and Lord knows aggressive players could get more out of N-air, a tremendously strange and under-explored move. It's like if only certain Fox players used certain kill confirms for him, and others eschewed them completely. Pretty bizarre -- maybe it's because his best reps live so far away from each other?

 

[verbatim]

I could imagine Gluttony and would really get some great results since all of Wario's worst MU's would be gone with no DLC (Cloud, Bayo, Mewtwo) I so want to see Gluttony go to Alternate End to see how his amazing Wario play can go without running into DLC.

Alternate End is a new one time tour that has a lot of unknowns, and certaintly won't justify a plane ticket from Europe. That being said, if similar events really start gaining traction it'd be hilarious to fly out top players who are hurt by certain dlc matchups.

 

[TDK]

Without DLC a few more characters would have relevance again. Ike could easily end up being a bad matchup for the same reasons Cloud is a bad matchup. Also, what happened to ZSS and Falcon being bad for her?

It takes more than just a large sword to beat Rosa. Ike can't Juggle Rosa as well as Cloud can, nor can he land as well. Luma also neuters his throw game.

But, moving on, DreamHack Atlanta is this weekend, and pools are out! It's at 370 entrants, including a large chunk of the PGR. 4 Advance to top 64, 1 in winners and 3 in losers:

EDIT:

A1: ZeRo vs Peabnut , Salt One and Sells in losers
A2: Ally vs Saj. , Player-1 and Cloak in losers
A3: Salem vs Mew2King* , Sonido and Russky in losers
A4: ESAM vs Ned , Doctor B and 7 in losers
B1: MKLeo vs HyperKirby , Blank and ChillyChilli in losers
B2: Larry Lurr vs Mekos , Rideae and Jun in losers
B3: Tweek vs K9Sbruce , Kman and Hungrybox in losers
B4: ANTi vs ScAtt , Rango and Jabe in losers
C1: Nairo vs Cosmos , RoguePenguin vs RedFox in losers
C2: Ryuga vs Captain Zack , RosaGetsFit and Guy in losers
C3: VoiD vs Wrath , Eldin and Vorst in losers
C4: Samsora vs Mr. E , Chez and MarioKid in losers
D1: Dabuz vs Lord Mix , Mystearica and Forfeit :4substitute: in losers
D2: Mr. R vs RFang , Vinnie and Yuno in losers
D3: Fatality vs WaDi , Tachyon and Kamikaze in losers
D4: Falln vs MVD , Ross and CC in losers

*Giving the high chance of M2K dropping, Sonido would fight Salem and Sinji (He's seeded to go 1-2 for some reason) would probably make it out in losers.

 

[Aaron1997]

TDK Brackets are Changing. Sinji plays Ryuga in WR2 and that's in Tweeks pool. And will probably change again.

 

[Lord Dio]

MKLeo vs HyperKirby

THIS. This is something I'd really, really like to see, and has a lot of potential to it.

 

[TDK]

Pools are unavailable now, so I'll redo it once they become available again.

 

[Das Koopa]

The seeding was awful so they're probably reworking it. Manny & Sinji were unseeded and a bunch of weird things were wrong with it like Vinnie & Cosmos being too low.

Salem seeded 9th is a joke

 

[valakmtnsmash4]

, Salt One and Sells in losers

I'm pretty sure saltone is a cloud main.

 

[Das Koopa]

I'm pretty sure saltone is a cloud main.

He plays both from what I've seen

 

[Ark of Silence101]

He plays both from what I've seen

Salt One is a Captain Falcon main with a Cloud secondary, most notably against Fatality because he hates the Falcon ditto.

 

[TDK]

It is seeded but I can't view pools so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Minordeth]

*SNIP*
Mewtwo also has edge cancels and a footstool kill confirm, yet only one of his top players uses them with any real consistency (Aba), which is confusing. N-air to footstool is hard, but it's not like it's impossible for any Mewtwo but Aba to pull off. I've seen people other than Aba try it, but no one does it consistently except him. I feel Aba is also better at aggressive edge guarding than other Mewtwos, though I'm not sure if that's a widely held opinion. I've seen WaDi do weird followups out of N-air that no other player employs (up smash, somehow). It's like there's no one who actually uses all of the character's strengths at once. I can't figure it out. It's not even all about style, like people said with Salem and Zack. There are plenty of ways to employ edge cancels in a defensive style, and Lord knows aggressive players could get more out of N-air, a tremendously strange and under-explored move. It's like if only certain Fox players used certain kill confirms for him, and others eschewed them completely. Pretty bizarre -- maybe it's because his best reps live so far away from each other?

Mewtwo's community seems a lot like Rosa's - knowledge and play styles are seemingly slow to spread and MU knowledge is seemingly geographically locked. But I could be wrong, I'm not a Rosa main.

As for Mewtwo, I think you are spot on about Nair. I think it remains unexplored because top players largely rely on reaction to follow up. Although it would take quite a bit of work, knowing exactly how people will pop out instead would open it up quite a bit. It is predictable, it just takes some study.

In addition, the only player I've really seen exploit Mewtwo's edge cancel game has been Nairo, go figure.

 

[ArnoldPalmer]

It takes more than just a large sword to beat Rosa. Ike can't Juggle Rosa as well as Cloud can, nor can he land as well. Luma also neuters his throw game.

But, moving on, DreamHack Atlanta is this weekend, and pools are out! It's at 370 entrants, including a large chunk of the PGR. 4 Advance to top 64, 1 in winners and 3 in losers:

It's not just the sword that makes the matchup ok for Ike. Its how safely and efficiently he can kill Luma, and what does Rosa do against Ike after Luma is gone?

 

[|RK|]

Tier list time! Opinion, respect it and I promise I'll respect yours. This list has more bias toward data > rep > results. Please share. =) pic.twitter.com/siKBxGdoVO

— Kurogane Hammer (@KuroganeHammer) July 21, 2017

 

[ARGHETH]

So, pools for Dreamhack Atlanta are up.

A1: Zero vs HyperKirby, Kman, Russky
A2: Larry Lurr vs saj., Player-1, Earthboundy
A3: Ally vs Cosmos, Blank, Rango
A4: ESAM vs Ned, Eldin, BigLou
B1: MKLeo vs Mekos, Vinnie, Kamikaze
B2: Nairo vs Mew2King, Peabnut, Mr. Speedman
B3: Mr. R vs Wrath, Mysterica, YuCas
B4: ANTi vs RFang, RosaGetsFit, Jabe
C1: Salem vs LordMix, ChillyChilli, MarioKid
C2: Tweek vs Ryuga, Chez, Poyo
C3: CaptainZack vs ScAtt, Ross, CC
C4: falln vs Manny, Sinji, MisterMan
D1: Dabuz vs K9sbruce, RougePenguin, Shade
D2: VoiD vs MVD, SaltOne, AGman
D3: Fatality vs Mr. E, Rideae, Envoid
D4: Samsora vs WaDi, Sonido, Tachyon

If M2K drops, then B2 likely becomes
B2: Nairo vs Peabnut, Mr. Speedman, Oken

EDIT: updated, thanks TDK

 

[Game7a1]

Tournament thread is up.

So, pools for Dreamhack Atlanta are up.

A1: Zero vs HyperKirby, Kman, Russky
A2: Larry Lurr vs saj., Player-1, Earthboundy (?)
A3: Ally vs Cosmos, Blank, Rango
A4: ESAM vs Ned, Eldin, BigLou (?)
B1: MKLeo vs Mekos, Vinnie, Kamikaze
B2: Nairo vs Mew2King, Peabnut, Mr. Speedman (?)
B3: Mr. R vs Wrath, Mysterica, YuCas (?)
B4: ANTi vs RFang, RosaGetsFit, Jabe
C1: Salem vs LordMix, ChillyChilli, MarioKid
C2: Tweek vs Ryuga, Chez, Poyo
C3: CaptainZack vs ScAtt, Ross, CC
C4: falln vs Manny, Sinji, MisterMan (?)
D1: Dabuz vs K9sbruce, RougePenguin, Shade (?)
D2: VoiD vs MVD, SaltOne, AGman (?)
D3: Fatality vs Mr. E, Rideae, Envoid (?)
D4: Samsora vs WaDi, Sonido, Tachyon

If M2K drops, then B2 likely becomes
B2: Nairo vs Peabnut, Mr. Speedman (?), Oken (?)

If you don't mind, I'll be adding this to the tournament thread.

 

[TDK]

So, pools for Dreamhack Atlanta are up.

A1: Zero vs HyperKirby, Kman, Russky
A2: Larry Lurr vs saj., Player-1, Earthboundy (?)
A3: Ally vs Cosmos, Blank, Rango
A4: ESAM vs Ned, Eldin, BigLou (?)
B1: MKLeo vs Mekos, Vinnie, Kamikaze
B2: Nairo vs Mew2King, Peabnut, Mr. Speedman (?)
B3: Mr. R vs Wrath, Mysterica, YuCas (?)
B4: ANTi vs RFang, RosaGetsFit, Jabe
C1: Salem vs LordMix, ChillyChilli, MarioKid
C2: Tweek vs Ryuga, Chez, Poyo
C3: CaptainZack vs ScAtt, Ross, CC
C4: falln vs Manny, Sinji, MisterMan (?)
D1: Dabuz vs K9sbruce, RougePenguin, Shade (?)
D2: VoiD vs MVD, SaltOne, AGman (?)
D3: Fatality vs Mr. E, Rideae, Envoid (?)
D4: Samsora vs WaDi, Sonido, Tachyon

If M2K drops, then B2 likely becomes
B2: Nairo vs Peabnut, Mr. Speedman (?), Oken (?)

Let me fill in the blanks:

Earthboundy
BigLou
Mr. Speedman (He 3-0ed M2K at MomoCon)
YuCas
MisterMan
Shade
AGman
Envoid
Oken

Also Rango is a main now, Vinnie also has a , and RosaGetsFit also has a that they both use very often.

EDIT:

It's not just the sword that makes the matchup ok for Ike. Its how safely and efficiently he can kill Luma, and what does Rosa do against Ike after Luma is gone?

Same thing as vs Cloud, except with an easier time juggling him with Uair.

 

[Bowserboy3]

It takes more than just a large sword to beat Rosa.

Just emphasising this point, which people seem to forget, or just assume that sword = good Rosa MU.

Yes, swords can make dispatching Luma safely a little easier, but they are still attacks that will leave you open, and a good Rosalina will punish you for that. In most cases, sword characters frame data is a lot stricter anyway (be it active frames shorter, autocancels stricter, startup slower etc). In addition to this, pretty much all sword characters don't land easy anyways, which just make's Rosalina's arguable biggest strength stronger.

Plus, when Rosalina is without Luma, she can simply run away, and most sword characters don't want to be doing heavy approaching, as it is often committal and easily punished. My favourite thing to do is simply F/Bthrow and then run away (it's an arse way to play and it annoys folk, but it works).

Like, Marth and Lucina do decently well in this MU compared to the majority of the cast, simply because they can deal with Luma safer than others. However, Rosalina has more than enough to bat back their way. Them having next to no ways to land against her safely arguably evens the MU out. This is probably an even MU at best. I could personally see this MU anywhere from 50:50 to 55:45 Rosalina tbh.

Ike definitely doesn't do that well against Rosalina, mainly for all the reasons I explained above about Marth/Lucina, but worse. Most of his moves can swat away Luma fairly easy, but they're unsafe, he can't approach Rosalina safely if she runs away, and he just gets juggled even worse (also, Star Bits can be kinda silly at stopping Ike's recovery if he doesn't space it correctly).

Though his Bair is legitimately a great move in this MU. Doesn't even out the MU but it's definitely his best tool and a move Rosalina must respect.

 

[Minordeth]

I saw Kurogane Hammer's list a little bit ago, and really, it's pretty solid. I can see why he'd put Bayo up there, although I'd put her below Diddy and Sheik probably.

I'm also thinking Ryu is a little high. I mean, I get it, his frame data is bananas and he can kill you at 80. But he also can't really exert his influence in neutral as well as he should for a supposedly top 10 character. The man has to commit to his options, especially in the air. He's more a counterplay character. And he has some really weird suspect MUs with characters like Megaman and Pikachu - not to mention top tier blockers like Rosa - to be inside top 10.

 

[Laken64]

A3: Ally vs Cosmos, Blank, Rango

This pool could be a potential upset for Ally seeing that the last time he played Cosmos it went up to game 10 with Cosmos taking a set of Ally but he lost in the end. Although it depends if Cosmos gets there because he could lose to Blank before getting to Ally simply because sheik corrin is a hell mu for corrin and Blank knows how to exploit fastfallers like Corrin.

 

[Amadeus9]

regarding bayonetta and sdi:

Fun fact, if you always sdi the same way, youre actually basically guaranteeing her a death combo. mix up that sdi

 

[MachoCheeze]

Concerning M2 I don't think we've seen him in his prime yet. Each of his prominent players utilize different things that make him ridiculous. Aba is the combo game and the aggressiveness Mewtwo can overwhelm with, Wadi is the oppressive neutral and camp game, and Nairo is the movement the character is able to pull off. Almost every aspect about M2 is broken and he's balanced by his large frame and lightweight. If we ever see a player who is able to pull all of these abilities together we'll see how truly overpowering M2 can be.

 

[verbatim]

So, pools for Dreamhack Atlanta are up.

C4: falln vs Manny, Sinji, MisterMan

Apart from Sinji being insanely underseeded (48th, seriously?), someone REALLY didn't want pool C4 to finish on time.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Ryu is not top ten dammit

 

[Frihetsanka]

Ryu is not top ten dammit

I think he could be. Marth/Lucina have both fallen off a bit, as has Mewtwo. If he's better than those three then he's top 10. I think he's probably hovering somewhere around 8-12.

 

[Rizen]

I'm torn on who's better or ? Either way, their both top 15.

 

[FeelMeUp]

Ryu is probably a better character than Marth.

 

[Envoy of Chaos]

I'd have to say Ryu as well, True Shoryuken confirms are just too good.

 

[toonito]

Results wise, Ryu is currently (and kinda inexplicably lol) #10 according to Koopa's rankings

 

[TDK]

Ryu's top 10 in terms of fear factor, but he's not top 10. Once people realize you don't have to commit to anything until Ryu commits to something first due to his bad mobility I think he'll get weaker.

 

[my_T]

Ryu better than Marcina and M2? Seriously?

What reasonable argument could justify this claim?

 

[NairWizard]

sometimes I think that people overplay neutral. This is true with Ryu mains for sure. They want to play him reactively and patiently like he were Marth, or Ryu from the original Street Fighter or something. Like what? Ryu has Luigi-level reward with much better kill confirms. Why play reactively and patiently? Just make a read. If you lose neutral you lose neutral who cares. Don't be so scared of committing to an option when a successful commitment gets you the stock.

Perfect theory neutral is overrated. Sometimes you just gotta win the match.

 

[my_T]

sometimes I think that people overplay neutral. This is true with Ryu mains for sure. They want to play him reactively and patiently like he were Marth, or Ryu from the original Street Fighter or something. Like what? Ryu has Luigi-level reward with much better kill confirms. Why play reactively and patiently? Just make a read. If you lose neutral you lose neutral who cares. Don't be so scared of committing to an option when a successful commitment gets you the stock.

Perfect theory neutral is overrated. Sometimes you just gotta win the match.

This isn't true at all. Ryu's disadvantage state is way too exploitable in a lot of MU's to justify such wreckless play.

 

[Jjab430]

If we're defining tier lists by solo-viability, is like a fringe top 20 character if you ask me. Yeah, killing at 60 sounds pretty broken but does it really matter when there are characters that can keep Ryu from even touching them?

I don't think people realize how limiting a lack of ranged/burst options can be or how it prevents him from just grinding out his tougher matchups like we've seen Fatality do with Bayonetta or ESAM/Ranai with Rosalina. When a Ryu takes on a Sonic, Rosalina, or Diddy who's well versed in the matchup it should look completely hopeless for him because those characters have options in neutral that—when properly utilized—prevent him from playing the game. He kinda has to just bank on avoiding those characters in bracket. Tough to do considering how common they are.

Just like DK, Ryu's volatile nature along with his large player base gives him a strong presence on a regional level. It also makes him one of the characters most likely to cause a few upsets here or there at nationals. But then he'll inevitably run into a Static Manny or fall prey to something as simple as Vinnie's pocket Rosalina. That's why I feel like he struggles to make deep bracket runs at nationals like we've seen as of late from other high tiers like Lucario, Olimar, Falcon, and Pikachu. In fact I'm pretty sure that he's only ever broken into top 8 once at an S/A tier as a solo main (Locus, 7th @ Civil War).

It's weird to me that after two full years of getting stonewalled by the same few characters in bracket and only having one top 8 to his name, so many are still hanging on to the delusion that Ryu's top tier. It almost feels like he gets more credit than any other character for doing anything notable. I guess the community's "muh potential" confirmation bias is to blame as many still confuse Ryu's high skill floor and volatile nature for a high skill ceiling