Seeing as Greninja is the hot topic in this thread rn and before we move on, if i'm being honest about Greninja's MU spread, while I am optimistic about how he can handle certain top tiers, I think there is a perfectly fine argument for Greninja beating ZSS slightly as well tbh.
Take a look at why Pikachu beats ZSS; mainly because he's so short, hard to hit, & really fast among other things, right? Greninja himself is short af too & even faster outside of Pikachu's burst mobility with Quick Attack. Everytime ZSS jumps he can literally just run under her and mess her up. ZSS has one of the highest short hops & Greninja has one of the shortest stances and especially more so when running so its quite annoying for her both in regards to playing around him & trying to actually hit him. Greninja's UpTilt will anti-air & beat out her trying to land on top of him with aerials. Not to mention she has no rising aerials to hit him w/ either while he stays grounded, her having to adjust and hit bair lower just makes it easier for him to avoid it or powershield for example. SH shurikens can hit at an angle that annoys her and can stuff her trying to do things, as long as you are careful about it and don't overcharge so she flip jumps you for it.
I've co-mained Greninja and ZSS for a pretty long while and saw each side states they slightly win, or slighlty lose, or that it's "weird" over the time. To me, the match-up is simply even.
I can understand why the case can be made for having a slight edge over the other, for Greninja especially, since "not being annoyed or even shut down by a top tier like he probably is with Sheik/Sonic/Fox/Cloud/Bayo" can give a false sense of having an advantage (even a slight one), but if I was to give the edge to one character, it wouldn't even be Greninja, mainly because of the current stage list.
ZSS has no threatening rising aerials...
at low percents. Rising uair, whether short hop or full hop, is incredibly scary and is getting more and more used by ZSS mains as an alternative start to a ladder or stepladder combo. I believe rising fair, while also being a commitment and a less rewarding option than most of her kit, is also underrated, but anyway.
About not having rising aerials... the same can be said about Greninja, apart from, in some cases, bair. Everything else has no use or a big start-up time. And the thing is : that's what makes Pikachu so good at stopping ZSS short hop-based neutral game, it's litteraly the key to him "countering" her neutral. Fair, Nair, Dair and even his Bair (though it's got landing lag) are
quick and have lingering hitboxes. This isn't the case with Greninja, at all (except for, again, bair... kind of, mostly it's good for safe pressure from behind on shield, which Stroder did well against Nairo).
Still comparing to Pikachu: he's short, yes (Greninja isn't as shorter), but most importantly, Pika's hitboxes shift greatly while doing stuff like fair or dair, even on landing. Same issue as Diddy's lingering, big and extremly frustrating rising fair, that still reduces his hurtbox on landing. Again, Greninja is just a lesser version of all of that.
And you can see that in the match of Stroder VS Nairo. What hit ZSS the most in the neutral? Well-spaced Fair and shuriken pokes. Because it's actually Greninja's two best tools in neutral against pretty much everyone, really ZSS is no different, and because Stroder played the neutral well, using Greninja's mobility, which is perhaps the best and also only characteristic that Greninja has that significantly challenges one of ZSS strong point, giving him an advantage (I'd rather say "an easier time") compared to other characters over ZSS. But gimmicks and general attributes can be used to shape a match-up only up to a point. They probably make the Greninja/ZSS MU "fair and balanced" (known as even) when otherwise it would be just another match-up where a top tier is just too much to handle. But beyond that, there are major differences in what actually happens in a match, significant parts of gameplay like frame data, combos, escape options, OOS options, interaction with platforms, or even interaction with rage and comeback mechanics.
ZSS can't get a lot of consistent things while Greninja can just play his normal game the whole time. Greninja can also SSHC out of Uair at early %s, boost kick, sour d-smash, f-smash, fair1, tether trump, etc forcing her to either change up her options or risk getting punished for doing her normal gameplan.
SSHC is mostly a gimmick though. No good ZSS is going to uair at low percents where it isn't even safe
on hit yet. SSHC out of boost kick is inconsistent and can mess up Greninja's DI if done wrong, which can lead to even earlier kills (Stroder didn't manage it against Nairo - maybe he didn't even wanted to risk it? - and yet I'm sure he's aware this is a thing). Fsmash is almost never used, except after a successful dsmash. Rather than fsmash because it's easier, the ZSS player just has to Flip Jump Kick instead (most of the time it kills earlier anyway...), which Nairo didn't. Fair is not reactable, bair is just as good at low percents. I didn't know about the trump to bair (are you sure about that?) and it could be more useful indeed, though ZSS doesn't lack other ways to pressure at the ledge anyway.
My point is: match-up knowledge should prevent most opportunities for the frog to SSHC. Just having a lot of multi-hit moves doesn't make Greninja better in the MU. It isn't worth the risk of getting punished harder - it can be very easily baited since Greninja has to buffer and spam the B button, basically doing an airdodge read but which will lead to an even deadlier punish.
To me this match-up is a good case for us Greninja mains of just missing the big picture. I don't recall who that is, and I'm probably twisting their words, but I think someone said that when Greninja mains stop being kind of obsessed, or at least giving too much attention to "uair drag-down to 60% footstool stylish but unrealistic combo" (so, mostly gimmick stuff), and focus on actual character traits, like movement and options, Greninja will be more threatening.
... and with that being said I still disagree a lot with what Dabuz said about Greninja, lol. Sure the "potential" thing is a bit overdone and this is a character where most people were probably a bit too optimistic about at some point, but results-wise, he made more waves than one coud think (pun intended) and we have facts to support that.
Actually, the first part of his tier list was pretty well constructed, but the whole row where Greninja was in, felt like a random "tier before the low tiers" of some sort, where Dabuz puts basically every zoner in the game next to each other... just because why not? He probably kind of rushed it and focused more on the upper half of the cast - who can blame him though, it's where he probably has the most experience and he's one of the most knowledgeable with match-ups, I think. I also liked that he made the point of how characters should be ranked based on their relations with top tiers (whether or not you agree with stuff like putting Bayo and Cloud in their own tier) while keeping in mind how common or uncommon bad match-ups can be, which is important for brackets.
