Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

[Nu~]

Because having a differant opinion totally means I'm saying random crap. I stay generally vague because I don't really feel like writing a five-paragraph essay for it; I COULD do that if I wanted but I don't spend all day going on smashboards.

You can't expect to make ridiculous claims without an explanation (Pacman +2 over Marth???? Wut fam?) because you dont feel like it, then get upset when someone says you have no substance in those claims.

 

[Wintermelon43]

You can't expect to make ridiculous claims without an explanation (Pacman +2 over Marth???? Wut fam?) because you dont feel like it, then get upset when someone says you have no substance in those claims.

I'm not upset, I'm simply defending myself. I see what you are saying though. I could explain my reasonings, but nobody has asked me for any reasons so I can't really do that. If anybody has any questions, just ask.

 

[ARISTOS]

I'm not upset, I'm simply defending myself. I see what you are saying though. I could explain my reasonings, but nobody has asked me for any reasons so I can't really do that. If anybody has any questions, just ask.

Explain your reasoning. You might be right, but I want to hear your reasons for putting the MUs you did as -2.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Good question. I've always wondered how Lucina really compares to Marth, especially with arguably better versions of Marth's normals/Shield Breaker.

As someone who plays a lot of Lucina and has a close mate who plays Marth...
We both agree Marth and Lucina are probably really close together in the tier list. When it comes to their moves, actually, really, both of them have good options from their moves, and people seriously tend to underrate Lucina's moves when compared to Marth's. Her Neutral Special is better as a general move while Marth's is better if you get the Shield Breaker. Lucina's Up Smash is a straight upgrade over Marth's a lot of times. Lucina's Side Special also tends to be better than his in some regards, and her Side Smash is pretty much a meme to some people...
People need to give her some more credit.

 

[PK Gaming]

Good question. I've always wondered how Lucina really compares to Marth, especially with arguably better versions of Marth's normals/Shield Breaker.

The gap between them isn't quite as large some people like to make it out to be, but it's definitely there. I don't think her normals are arguably better than Marth's when he has tipper Bair and especially tipper Nair. Both of these moves are really great KO options near the ledge. This wasn't an advantage he had prior to the buffs, but he's consistently KOing on average earlier than Lucina now, which is a pretty big deal. While inconsistent, Tipper Fsmash can straight up win you a match if you pull it off.

Damage is another point to consider. Tipper hits are damaging and the % racks up fast. Sure, Marth loses damage on sourspots but man, 12% on a sweetspot Bair hurts like hell.

 

[FamilyTeam]

The gap between them isn't quite as large some people like to make it out to be, but it's definitely there. I don't think her normals are arguably better than Marth's when he has tipper Bair and especially tipper Nair. Both of these moves are really great KO options near the ledge. This wasn't an advantage he had prior to the buffs, but he's consistently KOing on average earlier than Lucina now, which is a pretty big deal. While inconsistent, Tipper Fsmash can straight up win you a match if you pull it off.

Damage is another point to consider. Tipper hits are damaging and the % racks up fast. Sure, Marth loses damage on sourspots but man, 12% on a sweetspot Bair hurts like hell.

I find that I still KO a lot of foes with Lucina's Back and Neutral Air near the ledge.
I don't know if I'm remembering correctly, but... I think I once KO'd a Cloud 1/4 through DreamLand at about 117%. I also tend to KO characters at surprisingly low percents with her uncharged Side Smash near the ledge.
Both Marth and Lucina have really good edgeguarding tools, though.

 

[Yoshister]

but nobody has asked me for any reasons so I can't really do that.

Look man.

You can have you crazy opinions without backing them up, but don't bloody LIE.

You've been asked for your reasoning NUMEROUS TIMES.

Heck, you even gave your reasoning.
It was just really vague stuff (Heck, some of it was false).

 

[Wintermelon43]

Explain your reasoning. You might be right, but I want to hear your reasons for putting the MUs you did as -2.

:One problem with the Diddy kong matchup is that Diddy's fair is really bad for Marth. This causes his spacing to be worse than usual. He also has bananas, which can be a pain and if you get hit by them, Diddy can grab you and get a good amount of damage on you. Results so far have been unfavorable for Marth too iirc.

Marth however, can edgeguard him with counter, and his tipper smashes aren't that hard to hit him with.
:For Sheik, Marth struggles in muitiple ways. For one, Sheik's fair goves him trouble. Marth doesn't have the beat metehods of dealing with that, nor does he with nair. He has trouble with bouncing fish too as it can harm his recovery a lot and give the first stock to Sheik. Needles can be a pain too, and Sheik has much better mobility.

However, Marth is much better at KOing than Sheik is though, and he can keep her out with fair. Plus in results it seems pretty good for Marth from what I hear. It is possible it is only -1.
:For Ryu, it seems that for one, Ryu actually has the KO advantage for sure due to shoruken. He also seems to have great punishes aganist Marth (duh) that aren't too hard to get since he doesn't wall Ryu out as good as he does many others. Focus Attack is a good tool to use aganist aierals too, like it is in other swordie matchups.
:For this matchup, Fox has many advantages over Marth. For one, he has much better mobility than Marth. For another, Fox and Marth have pretty equal ko power. Fox, however, kills a lot with up air, which hurts Marth since his landing options are poor.

Marth can really combo Fox though, and he is also pretty good at edgeguarding him.
:See, one of Marth's biggest problems in this game is that he does very bad aganist projectiles. He uses a lot of walling out, and this is hard to do when you get hit with projectiles. This makes the opponent better at keeping you out than you are.

So, as a result, Marth has a severly hard time dealing with Mega Man's pellets and metal blade. Mega Man has a much better time keeping Marth out than Marth is at keeping Mega Man out. Both characters have trouble getting the kill though. Marth has a lot of trouble getting a tipper smash due to the aforminated projectile problems, while Mega Man is beat at keepingaway from Marth, and can get punished hard for running up and using an up smash, a down smash, or an up tilt.
:Toon Link's problem is mainly due to, once again, Marth's projectile struggles. Toon Link's projectiles should be able to keep Marth out most of the time. Bombs are gonna be a big pain for him. Additionally, Toon Link's zair makes it hard for Marth to get in as well.

Marth DOES however keep Toon Link out as well. So both characters are just trying to hit the other opponent while keeping the opponent away from them. Toon Link get's the advantage for sure there though, due to his pojectiles. Both have great KO Power as well, so Marth doesn't have a big advantage in that either.

:For Mewtwo, Mewtwo can combo Marth pretty good in the air, possibly more than Marth himself. Shadow Ball and his mobility help Mewtwo approach in this matchup as well. Also, Mewtwo's fair has less startup than Marth's as well. Mewtwo also can easily edgeguard Marth. Marth has great KO Power in this matchup and pretty good spacing and..... not much else otherwise tbh.
ac-Man is very similar to Mega Man in that the main problem is projectiles. Pac-Man's fruit realky keep him out, and trampoline hurts his ground approach. Hydrant is good to punish Marth for jumping below you too, as well as being a good edgeguarding tool. I anvery good at this mu with Pac, and I have to say it seems very hard for Marth.

However, Marth has an easier time approaching Pac than Mega Man, since Pac doesn't have any pellet-like moves. Marth is also good at knocking the hydrant away. In the air, when tou are side to side, Marth is better at hitting you due to fair.
I shouldn't need to explain Sonic since everyone thinks that matchup is -2


Here you go

Look man.

You can have you crazy opinions without backing them up, but don't bloody LIE.

You've been asked for your reasoning NUMEROUS TIMES.

Heck, you even gave your reasoning.
It was just really vague stuff (Heck, some of it was false).

I'm referring to right now, not before where I DID explain my reasonings.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Let us please keep our calm, here?
Wintermelon might not have been very objective, but losing our cool is not gonna leave us to nowhere good. Wintermelon43 , I was legit curious as to why you view Marth like that. As I am an enthusiast of his, and I have friends that would definitely benefit from seeing different points of view regarding him, so I would like to know what brought you to think what you think. Clearly, something did...

 

[Emblem Lord]

Ryu is not +2 on Marth. That would mean Ryu has a tool that neutralizes whole aspects of Marths game which he does not do at all. Marth has an answer for everything Ryu does and edgeguards him fiercely. Counter wrecks tatsu and shoryuken off stage.

 

[-Tornado-]

Marth -2 vs. Ryu?
I dunno, feels weird when his edgeguarding kills Ryu faster than Sonic's career.
EDIT: Greninja'd

 

[Ropalme1914]

Other thing that I think that counts for Marth is that his strongest area (tipper range) is where Ryu is weaker, since he can hit Ryu and Ryu can only hit with Hadouken, which is terrible at that range, and it's not that hard to stay in that area with good spacing.

 

[ILOVESMASH]

:One problem with the Diddy kong matchup is that Diddy's fair is really bad for Marth. This causes his spacing to be worse than usual. He also has bananas, which can be a pain and if you get hit by them, Diddy can grab you and get a good amount of damage on you. Results so far have been unfavorable for Marth too iirc.

Marth however, can edgeguard him with counter, and his tipper smashes aren't that hard to hit him with.
:For Sheik, Marth struggles in muitiple ways. For one, Sheik's fair goves him trouble. Marth doesn't have the beat metehods of dealing with that, nor does he with nair. He has trouble with bouncing fish too as it can harm his recovery a lot and give the first stock to Sheik. Needles can be a pain too, and Sheik has much better mobility.

However, Marth is much better at KOing than Sheik is though, and he can keep her out with fair. Plus in results it seems pretty good for Marth from what I hear. It is possible it is only -1.
:For Ryu, it seems that for one, Ryu actually has the KO advantage for sure due to shoruken. He also seems to have great punishes aganist Marth (duh) that aren't too hard to get since he doesn't wall Ryu out as good as he does many others. Focus Attack is a good tool to use aganist aierals too, like it is in other swordie matchups.
:For this matchup, Fox has many advantages over Marth. For one, he has much better mobility than Marth. For another, Fox and Marth have pretty equal ko power. Fox, however, kills a lot with up air, which hurts Marth since his landing options are poor.

Marth can really combo Fox though, and he is also pretty good at edgeguarding him.
:See, one of Marth's biggest problems in this game is that he does very bad aganist projectiles. He uses a lot of walling out, and this is hard to do when you get hit with projectiles. This makes the opponent better at keeping you out than you are.

So, as a result, Marth has a severly hard time dealing with Mega Man's pellets and metal blade. Mega Man has a much better time keeping Marth out than Marth is at keeping Mega Man out. Both characters have trouble getting the kill though. Marth has a lot of trouble getting a tipper smash due to the aforminated projectile problems, while Mega Man is beat at keepingaway from Marth, and can get punished hard for running up and using an up smash, a down smash, or an up tilt.
:Toon Link's problem is mainly due to, once again, Marth's projectile struggles. Toon Link's projectiles should be able to keep Marth out most of the time. Bombs are gonna be a big pain for him. Additionally, Toon Link's zair makes it hard for Marth to get in as well.

Marth DOES however keep Toon Link out as well. So both characters are just trying to hit the other opponent while keeping the opponent away from them. Toon Link get's the advantage for sure there though, due to his pojectiles. Both have great KO Power as well, so Marth doesn't have a big advantage in that either.

:For Mewtwo, Mewtwo can combo Marth pretty good in the air, possibly more than Marth himself. Shadow Ball and his mobility help Mewtwo approach in this matchup as well. Also, Mewtwo's fair has less startup than Marth's as well. Mewtwo also can easily edgeguard Marth. Marth has great KO Power in this matchup and pretty good spacing and..... not much else otherwise tbh.
ac-Man is very similar to Mega Man in that the main problem is projectiles. Pac-Man's fruit realky keep him out, and trampoline hurts his ground approach. Hydrant is good to punish Marth for jumping below you too, as well as being a good edgeguarding tool. I anvery good at this mu with Pac, and I have to say it seems very hard for Marth.

However, Marth has an easier time approaching Pac than Mega Man, since Pac doesn't have any pellet-like moves. Marth is also good at knocking the hydrant away. In the air, when tou are side to side, Marth is better at hitting you due to fair.
I shouldn't need to explain Sonic since everyone thinks that matchup is -2


Here you go

I'm referring to right now, not before where I DID explain my reasonings.

Thanks for giving your reasoning, but the way you explained these MUs make them seem more like -1 MUs more than -2 like you previously stated.

Personal thoughts:
Against Ryu, I would say the MU is even, possibly slightly in either character's favor depending on the stage. Marth's range and disjoint allow him to out prioritize Ryu's moves in the neutral without trading, giving him a large edge in the neutral. Focus attack is almost a non issue due to Marth's access to many multihit moves, particularly nair and dancing blade. Marth's edge guards vs Ryu are also BRUTAL; Ryu offstage is pretty much dead or taking 50% or more from marth's edge guards with Fair, Bair, Counter, etc.

Against Toon Link, I would say its either even or in Marth's favor. Marth's superior frame data and range allow him to destroy Toon Link at CQC, particularly at tipper range since Toon Link's Normals can't hit him. Projectiles are an issue while running, but walking + powershield / shield make them far less of an issue than you are making it out to be. Marth's aerials and tilts can also destroy a few of Toon Link's projectiles, again alleviating this issue. Marth's edgeguards are also really strong in this Matchup.

Pac Man is in a similar case to Toon Link, except his projectiles are a bit easier to deal with due to their travel speed being slower, making them easier for Marth to grab.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Yeah, like, analyzing what you said... I really can't see much of it. Again, mind explaining where you got those ideas from, exactly? Your own experience, videos of Marth, friends?

 

[Nobie]

A character that has tons of options but has to commit to each of them doesn't have their options magically disappear because their opponent's frame data is safer. It's just riskier to make the wrong choice.

 

[Illuminose]

I think @Das Koopa your analysis doesn't make much sense. Ranai not cracking top 32 is practically impossible given the players he has to fight. It's based on a flimsy statement that Ranai has dropped off significantly when that isn't really a valid assumption. Given the previous level of play Ranai has shown and how much he is practicing, I think it is unreasonable to assume that Ranai won't be in form at EVO. Regardless, 2015 Komo is better than 2016 Wrath, and given Ranai's matchup experience/prowess (especially because he has plenty of opportunities to practice with komorikiri currently) it's a bit absurd to suggest that Ranai is anything less than an extreme favorite to beat Wrath.

The issue for Trela is that not only does Ryu lose solidly to Villager, but he has almost no matchup experience whereas Ranai has months of experience practicing with 9B. Honestly, I think Trela winning would be a really massive upset given these conditions. Nairo is bad at the Villager matchup and Ranai is very good at it. Favoring Ranai is a no-brainer. Abadango is a question mark but he's shown that he's very weak at the Villager matchup by losing to Nyaha (lol) and kept.

I don't get your point. There is little reason not to have faith in Ranai to make this run other than a nebulous assumption that he's dropped off. The things Ranai has lost to in his 'weak' performances are top Clouds in a matchup that is highly unfavorable for Villager, Earth who he had lost to before he 'disappeared', one of his main practice partners who used pre patch Bayonetta, and the odd loss to SH's Fox. I would be concerned if Ranai's bracket had Clouds or Larry or Dabuz or something. But he's fighting 3 of his strongest matchups (Sonic, Ryu, and ZSS), a player he is simply much better than (Xzax), and a player that is notoriously poor at the Villager matchup (Abadango). Ranai is the odds-on favorite to win all of his bracket matchups by any logic. How do you not see him going far?

That said, I also have faith in more active Japanese players to do well. For once I'm actually convinced that Japan could blow up a tournament, claiming multiple top 8 spots. I'm just doubtful of how well Abadango will perform given that he will have to end up beating (most likely) one of Kirihara who literally just beat him, Zinoto, or ZeRo.

Komo has Bloodcross->Rich Brown/waymas->FOW->Dabuz->Ally to make winners side top 8. I think Dabuz/Komo is a toss-up and that the winner of the set will make top 8, and there's some chance that Komo could lose to FOW, but Komo has a good shot.

Kame has something like False->K9/Shaky->lose to MrR->Nairo->Earth/Rain->Ally to get into top 8 via losers. Hardish, but I think Kame can muster the run given what we've seen from him. I also think he has a chance to explode on Mr.R with his style and then just make top 8 that way from winners.

KEN vs VoiD is a mystery that will likely determine how far KEN goes, because if he wins he faces Zinoto who has literally lost to Seagull Joe and then ZeRo assuming ZeRo beats the winner of the Kirihara/Hyuga/Vinnie pool, which could actually land him in top 8 winners. KEN's prowess in the Diddy matchup will serve him well against Diddys that historically aren't good at the Sonic matchup. If he loses to VoiD he still has somewhat of a shot but a difficult one, considering he'd have to beat Mr.R which is just hard as well as (probably) Nietono and FOW.

Kirihara is in an interesting pool -- I really have no idea what him vs Hyuga will turn out like. I think he'd beat Vinnie though if he wins that. Kirihara practices with Nietono enough that I don't really see ZeRo's Diddy as a big concern for him and I think he can beat the Cloud. If he does that I think he'll make top 8. Really comes down to what ZeRo's Cloud looks like and how the Hyuga set turns out.

Those are the Japanese players I think have the best runs to look out for at EVO. We'll see how everything turns out, it'll be a fun ride no matter what happens. Oh, and Komorikiri will win EVO. There's my winner prediction

 

[Y2Kay]

doesn't have a +2 advantage over . Having his own range backed with serious killing power, forces Mewtwo to respect moves like Fair and Bair. Also, Marth's Nair stuffs phased aerials.

Mewtwo still wins, but by no means isn't worse than a +1

 

[valakmtnsmash4]

http://vegassmash.challonge.com/TZsmash4

This is the bracket for a local where all the japanese entrants who are going to evo are attending and some socal players as well. Shame its not being streamed

Japanese entrants: Komorokiri, 9B, KEN, Earth, Uho, Rain, Kei, some japanese Ryu(dont know the name), Shimitake, Hikaru, Kirihara, Kamemushi

 

[|RK|]

:One problem with the Diddy kong matchup is that Diddy's fair is really bad for Marth. This causes his spacing to be worse than usual. He also has bananas, which can be a pain and if you get hit by them, Diddy can grab you and get a good amount of damage on you. Results so far have been unfavorable for Marth too iirc.

Marth however, can edgeguard him with counter, and his tipper smashes aren't that hard to hit him with.
:For Sheik, Marth struggles in muitiple ways. For one, Sheik's fair goves him trouble. Marth doesn't have the beat metehods of dealing with that, nor does he with nair. He has trouble with bouncing fish too as it can harm his recovery a lot and give the first stock to Sheik. Needles can be a pain too, and Sheik has much better mobility.

However, Marth is much better at KOing than Sheik is though, and he can keep her out with fair. Plus in results it seems pretty good for Marth from what I hear. It is possible it is only -1.
:For Ryu, it seems that for one, Ryu actually has the KO advantage for sure due to shoruken. He also seems to have great punishes aganist Marth (duh) that aren't too hard to get since he doesn't wall Ryu out as good as he does many others. Focus Attack is a good tool to use aganist aierals too, like it is in other swordie matchups.
:For this matchup, Fox has many advantages over Marth. For one, he has much better mobility than Marth. For another, Fox and Marth have pretty equal ko power. Fox, however, kills a lot with up air, which hurts Marth since his landing options are poor.

Marth can really combo Fox though, and he is also pretty good at edgeguarding him.
:See, one of Marth's biggest problems in this game is that he does very bad aganist projectiles. He uses a lot of walling out, and this is hard to do when you get hit with projectiles. This makes the opponent better at keeping you out than you are.

So, as a result, Marth has a severly hard time dealing with Mega Man's pellets and metal blade. Mega Man has a much better time keeping Marth out than Marth is at keeping Mega Man out. Both characters have trouble getting the kill though. Marth has a lot of trouble getting a tipper smash due to the aforminated projectile problems, while Mega Man is beat at keepingaway from Marth, and can get punished hard for running up and using an up smash, a down smash, or an up tilt.
:Toon Link's problem is mainly due to, once again, Marth's projectile struggles. Toon Link's projectiles should be able to keep Marth out most of the time. Bombs are gonna be a big pain for him. Additionally, Toon Link's zair makes it hard for Marth to get in as well.

Marth DOES however keep Toon Link out as well. So both characters are just trying to hit the other opponent while keeping the opponent away from them. Toon Link get's the advantage for sure there though, due to his pojectiles. Both have great KO Power as well, so Marth doesn't have a big advantage in that either.

:For Mewtwo, Mewtwo can combo Marth pretty good in the air, possibly more than Marth himself. Shadow Ball and his mobility help Mewtwo approach in this matchup as well. Also, Mewtwo's fair has less startup than Marth's as well. Mewtwo also can easily edgeguard Marth. Marth has great KO Power in this matchup and pretty good spacing and..... not much else otherwise tbh.
ac-Man is very similar to Mega Man in that the main problem is projectiles. Pac-Man's fruit realky keep him out, and trampoline hurts his ground approach. Hydrant is good to punish Marth for jumping below you too, as well as being a good edgeguarding tool. I anvery good at this mu with Pac, and I have to say it seems very hard for Marth.

However, Marth has an easier time approaching Pac than Mega Man, since Pac doesn't have any pellet-like moves. Marth is also good at knocking the hydrant away. In the air, when tou are side to side, Marth is better at hitting you due to fair.
I shouldn't need to explain Sonic since everyone thinks that matchup is -2


Here you go

I'm referring to right now, not before where I DID explain my reasonings.

Tbh, I'm not getting anything out of this.

Diddy: You don't really explain *how* fair makes spacing worse for Marth, and the rest of the sentence is something that happens to every character in the game.

Sheik: How does fair give him trouble? Bouncing fish harms everyone's recovery - how does it affect Marth specifically?

Ryu: How do they interact? What makes the earlier kill percent important?

Fox: Pretty decently explained, though inability to land doesn't make a whole matchup, IMO. Maybe enough for a -1.

Mega Man: This doesn't really go over how the characters get into position for their kill setups. But there is something to be said about projectiles - not sure how much Marth struggles with them, though (and/or what projectiles he can stuff)

Toon Link: Are projectiles really THAT bad for Marth? Based on this explanation (and considering they both want to get in), I could see another -1. But I guess I need to watch more Marth in order to judge these projectile MUs accurately.

Mewtwo: Mew2Chainz has commented, and he knows that MU better than I do. Deferring to his opinion here.

Pac-Man: All I know is that Pac-Man players routinely talk about how people shouldn't be hit by anything lol. I don't know enough about Pac Man to comment, myself.

Sonic: Actually, I am pretty curious about that.

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

:One problem with the Diddy kong matchup is that Diddy's fair is really bad for Marth. This causes his spacing to be worse than usual. He also has bananas, which can be a pain and if you get hit by them, Diddy can grab you and get a good amount of damage on you. Results so far have been unfavorable for Marth too iirc.

Marth however, can edgeguard him with counter, and his tipper smashes aren't that hard to hit him with.
:For Sheik, Marth struggles in muitiple ways. For one, Sheik's fair goves him trouble. Marth doesn't have the beat metehods of dealing with that, nor does he with nair. He has trouble with bouncing fish too as it can harm his recovery a lot and give the first stock to Sheik. Needles can be a pain too, and Sheik has much better mobility.

However, Marth is much better at KOing than Sheik is though, and he can keep her out with fair. Plus in results it seems pretty good for Marth from what I hear. It is possible it is only -1.
:For Ryu, it seems that for one, Ryu actually has the KO advantage for sure due to shoruken. He also seems to have great punishes aganist Marth (duh) that aren't too hard to get since he doesn't wall Ryu out as good as he does many others. Focus Attack is a good tool to use aganist aierals too, like it is in other swordie matchups.
:For this matchup, Fox has many advantages over Marth. For one, he has much better mobility than Marth. For another, Fox and Marth have pretty equal ko power. Fox, however, kills a lot with up air, which hurts Marth since his landing options are poor.

Marth can really combo Fox though, and he is also pretty good at edgeguarding him.
:See, one of Marth's biggest problems in this game is that he does very bad aganist projectiles. He uses a lot of walling out, and this is hard to do when you get hit with projectiles. This makes the opponent better at keeping you out than you are.

So, as a result, Marth has a severly hard time dealing with Mega Man's pellets and metal blade. Mega Man has a much better time keeping Marth out than Marth is at keeping Mega Man out. Both characters have trouble getting the kill though. Marth has a lot of trouble getting a tipper smash due to the aforminated projectile problems, while Mega Man is beat at keepingaway from Marth, and can get punished hard for running up and using an up smash, a down smash, or an up tilt.
:Toon Link's problem is mainly due to, once again, Marth's projectile struggles. Toon Link's projectiles should be able to keep Marth out most of the time. Bombs are gonna be a big pain for him. Additionally, Toon Link's zair makes it hard for Marth to get in as well.

Marth DOES however keep Toon Link out as well. So both characters are just trying to hit the other opponent while keeping the opponent away from them. Toon Link get's the advantage for sure there though, due to his pojectiles. Both have great KO Power as well, so Marth doesn't have a big advantage in that either.

:For Mewtwo, Mewtwo can combo Marth pretty good in the air, possibly more than Marth himself. Shadow Ball and his mobility help Mewtwo approach in this matchup as well. Also, Mewtwo's fair has less startup than Marth's as well. Mewtwo also can easily edgeguard Marth. Marth has great KO Power in this matchup and pretty good spacing and..... not much else otherwise tbh.
ac-Man is very similar to Mega Man in that the main problem is projectiles. Pac-Man's fruit realky keep him out, and trampoline hurts his ground approach. Hydrant is good to punish Marth for jumping below you too, as well as being a good edgeguarding tool. I anvery good at this mu with Pac, and I have to say it seems very hard for Marth.

However, Marth has an easier time approaching Pac than Mega Man, since Pac doesn't have any pellet-like moves. Marth is also good at knocking the hydrant away. In the air, when tou are side to side, Marth is better at hitting you due to fair.
I shouldn't need to explain Sonic since everyone thinks that matchup is -2

*sigh* At this rate I'm gonna end up becoming that one guy who talks about Marth a lot. Oh well...

Diddy Kong: Fair is bad both ways, neither wants to deal with the other's fair. One move shouldn't effect your entire spacing in the match up. If a Marth player is struggling against Diddy because of fair, they need to practice the MU more. It is a disadvantageous MU for Marth, but due to Diddy Kong's consistent damage racking skills with banana/throw combos and consistent killing, not his fair. Diddy's just a good character. -1

Sheik: Marth struggles with Sheik's rush down, not specifically fair. Fair nerfs do actually mean a lot for Sheik, fair doesn't combo into itself nearly as easily (big reason why smashville platform jank isn't as common anymore) and of course Marth has better range than her now. Marth can actually avoid Sheik fairly well, he just kinda struggles to get out when she gets in. Factor in Needle conditioning and she has ways to pressure you to allow her to get in without her actually doing much. -1 with potential to get worse. Anyone that's doing well with Sheik is already a good player.

Ryu: Marth v. Ryu is so much fun. So much neutral. So much fun to edge guard. Inb4 someone says Focus Attack as if can't be avoided and doesn't have counterplay. Ryu never wants to get sent off stage against Marth. Marth doesn't want to mess up and over extend and die. Provided you're running away from Ryu (like you should be), you can actually wall Ryu out. Ryu commits to everything he does. The better player will win. Even.

Fox: There's a lot of little nuances to this MU. Marth doesn't want to do some of the things he does against other characters. For example, Dancing blade up is good against a lot of characters because then they can be juggled. Fox falls too fast, it's likely you won't even get the last hit, allowing Fox to punish. Dancing Blade down is much more reliable against Fox, but that means you don't get to juggle him. Much like Sheik, Marth doesn't like Fox's rush down tactics, combined with a projectile that forces approaches. Not -2, probably -1, but imo it's just slightly -1.

Sonic: This is bad. No doubt about it, this is -2. Sonic easily gets in on Marth and easily gets away with it.

Mega Man: I'll be honest, I usually fight Mega Man with Falcon, more so as a comfort pick however rather than just MU struggles. I think it's bad for Marth, not -2, definitely not in his favor however.

Toon Link: Don't get hit by bombs. Don't play Toon Link's game, play your own. Don't try to challenge Toon Link's strengths, punish it's weaknesses. Toon Link is forced to rely on projectiles when he's holding a bomb, which a good Toon Link is gonna do a lot. Shielding is your friend. I know someone's gonna mention Marth's poor dash > shield, but if you're using Marth, or any character for that matter, you should be comfortable with your timings on such things like that, which comes from just using the character more.

Mewtwo: It's like a Marth ditto, but suddenly your opponent's tools are better. He's faster, combos better, kills way better and way more consistently, and has a projectile. However, he's also bigger and weaker to tippers do to his weight combined with size. Mewtwo doesn't want to get hit too much or make trades with Marth, which is okay because usually he doesn't have to. Definitely in Mewtwo's favor. -1

Pac Man: Marth doesn't give a crap about Pac Man. "Hydrant is good to punish Marth for jumping below you" No character should be doing this. Pac Man may not be a common character but that's one thing everyone should know not to do. It's like unsafely jumping below Bowser, you know they're looking for down air/down b, why would you give them the opportunity to do it to you? The difference being that Pac Man's not getting punished if it doesn't hit. Pac Man's projectiles aren't threatening like Mega Man or Toon Link. Unlike them, he can only throw one, and all of them except the key are slow and easy to react to, and unlike Fox or Sheik, they don't force approaches. At worst it's even.

 

[Aaron1997]

YerTheBestAROUND Good Pacmans will never Throw there fruits like normal Projectiles unless its mid Range Cherrys/Oranges Tech Chases and Reads. They always try to get them in there hand to Z-drop, Set up Hydrant stuff, egdeguard and Pressure the opponent.

 

[Yikarur]

http://vegassmash.challonge.com/TZsmash4

This is the bracket for a local where all the japanese entrants who are going to evo are attending and some socal players as well. Shame its not being streamed

Japanese entrants: Komorokiri, 9B, KEN, Earth, Uho, Rain, Kei, some japanese Ryu(dont know the name), Shimitake, Hikaru, Kirihara, Kamemushi

The 2 germans attending got 9th (cyve) and 13th (Eddy) getting double eliminated by japanese players. I'm ok with this; Eddy did better than expected.

Who's JK? Hey got really impressive wins.

 

[Aaron1997]

Yikarur JK is Bayo from Vegas. 5th in the PR
I don't think Kameme went Megaman vs Him because I don't see how he can Rampage though Pre-Bayo like 9B, Ikep. Shu and then lose to a Random Vegas Bayo post patch

 

[Nairo]

I think @Das Koopa your analysis doesn't make much sense. Ranai not cracking top 32 is practically impossible given the players he has to fight. It's based on a flimsy statement that Ranai has dropped off significantly when that isn't really a valid assumption. Given the previous level of play Ranai has shown and how much he is practicing, I think it is unreasonable to assume that Ranai won't be in form at EVO. Regardless, 2015 Komo is better than 2016 Wrath, and given Ranai's matchup experience/prowess (especially because he has plenty of opportunities to practice with komorikiri currently) it's a bit absurd to suggest that Ranai is anything less than an extreme favorite to beat Wrath.

The issue for Trela is that not only does Ryu lose solidly to Villager, but he has almost no matchup experience whereas Ranai has months of experience practicing with 9B. Honestly, I think Trela winning would be a really massive upset given these conditions. Nairo is bad at the Villager matchup and Ranai is very good at it. Favoring Ranai is a no-brainer. Abadango is a question mark but he's shown that he's very weak at the Villager matchup by losing to Nyaha (lol) and kept.

I don't get your point. There is little reason not to have faith in Ranai to make this run other than a nebulous assumption that he's dropped off. The things Ranai has lost to in his 'weak' performances are top Clouds in a matchup that is highly unfavorable for Villager, Earth who he had lost to before he 'disappeared', one of his main practice partners who used pre patch Bayonetta, and the odd loss to SH's Fox. I would be concerned if Ranai's bracket had Clouds or Larry or Dabuz or something. But he's fighting 3 of his strongest matchups (Sonic, Ryu, and ZSS), a player he is simply much better than (Xzax), and a player that is notoriously poor at the Villager matchup (Abadango). Ranai is the odds-on favorite to win all of his bracket matchups by any logic. How do you not see him going far?

That said, I also have faith in more active Japanese players to do well. For once I'm actually convinced that Japan could blow up a tournament, claiming multiple top 8 spots. I'm just doubtful of how well Abadango will perform given that he will have to end up beating (most likely) one of Kirihara who literally just beat him, Zinoto, or ZeRo.

Komo has Bloodcross->Rich Brown/waymas->FOW->Dabuz->Ally to make winners side top 8. I think Dabuz/Komo is a toss-up and that the winner of the set will make top 8, and there's some chance that Komo could lose to FOW, but Komo has a good shot.

Kame has something like False->K9/Shaky->lose to MrR->Nairo->Earth/Rain->Ally to get into top 8 via losers. Hardish, but I think Kame can muster the run given what we've seen from him. I also think he has a chance to explode on Mr.R with his style and then just make top 8 that way from winners.

KEN vs VoiD is a mystery that will likely determine how far KEN goes, because if he wins he faces Zinoto who has literally lost to Seagull Joe and then ZeRo assuming ZeRo beats the winner of the Kirihara/Hyuga/Vinnie pool, which could actually land him in top 8 winners. KEN's prowess in the Diddy matchup will serve him well against Diddys that historically aren't good at the Sonic matchup. If he loses to VoiD he still has somewhat of a shot but a difficult one, considering he'd have to beat Mr.R which is just hard as well as (probably) Nietono and FOW.

Kirihara is in an interesting pool -- I really have no idea what him vs Hyuga will turn out like. I think he'd beat Vinnie though if he wins that. Kirihara practices with Nietono enough that I don't really see ZeRo's Diddy as a big concern for him and I think he can beat the Cloud. If he does that I think he'll make top 8. Really comes down to what ZeRo's Cloud looks like and how the Hyuga set turns out.

Those are the Japanese players I think have the best runs to look out for at EVO. We'll see how everything turns out, it'll be a fun ride no matter what happens. Oh, and Komorikiri will win EVO. There's my winner prediction

Are you saying that I'm bad vs villager because I lost to mjg 9 months ago lol I definitely learned some more about the match up since then, but ranai is gdlk so it'll be hard regardless if we do end up facing off. But I see you just want japan to dominate lolol

 

[~ Gheb ~]

How so?

Reminder that Earth is the guy who beat M2K's MK in Brawl.

With Pit.

Twice.

He also just beat the best player of what's considered to be Pit's worst matchup - twice. There's not a single player in this world he can't beat and he's currently playing some of the best smash of his entire career. I'd be more concerned about M2K than about Earth.

https://twitter.com/FatalityFalcon/status/753323828835680257 Fatality will not go to EVO anymore.

I take it the pools can't be changed anymore?

Kame has something like False->K9/Shaky->lose to MrR->Nairo->Earth/Rain->Ally to get into top 8 via losers. Hardish, but I think Kame can muster the run given what we've seen from him. I also think he has a chance to explode on Mr.R with his style and then just make top 8 that way from winners.

Kame's bracket actually looks pretty bad. As good as he is he may have to overcome the Sheik matchup twice already before getting a shot against Ramin. And even though the Sheik matchup isn't quite as bad as it used to be Megaman can always just lose to a competent Sheik main. I can see Kame doing pretty poorly, unfortunately.

But ofc he can also play at his best and beast his way through - it can go either way, really [just like the whole tournament can!]

The 2 germans attending got 9th (cyve) and 13th (Eddy) getting double eliminated by japanese players. I'm ok with this; Eddy did better than expected.

There's no shame in losing to Earth and Rain in Eddy's case but cyve shouldn't lose to DK, even if it's Hikaru. He has too good of a character selection for that and has to do better at EVO if he wants to prove himself.

 

[Joey T.]

As someone who plays a lot of Lucina and has a close mate who plays Marth...
We both agree Marth and Lucina are probably really close together in the tier list. When it comes to their moves, actually, really, both of them have good options from their moves, and people seriously tend to underrate Lucina's moves when compared to Marth's. Her Neutral Special is better as a general move while Marth's is better if you get the Shield Breaker. Lucina's Up Smash is a straight upgrade over Marth's a lot of times. Lucina's Side Special also tends to be better than his in some regards, and her Side Smash is pretty much a meme to some people...
People need to give her some more credit.

I'm actually curious about this topic. Is there any MU where Marth and Lucina do equally good or Lucina does better than Marth?

 

[Hat N' Clogs]

As someone who plays a lot of Lucina and has a close mate who plays Marth...
We both agree Marth and Lucina are probably really close together in the tier list. When it comes to their moves, actually, really, both of them have good options from their moves, and people seriously tend to underrate Lucina's moves when compared to Marth's. Her Neutral Special is better as a general move while Marth's is better if you get the Shield Breaker. Lucina's Up Smash is a straight upgrade over Marth's a lot of times. Lucina's Side Special also tends to be better than his in some regards, and her Side Smash is pretty much a meme to some people...
People need to give her some more credit.

Solid analysis. This helped me learn a lot more about Lucina, since we don't really see her in tournaments, and I don't main her. I would like to touch up on the gap topic though, because for me personally I'm still trying to come to a full understanding of how large the gap is between the two characters. I do think Lucina does have some good tools, but she's rarely seen in tournaments, while Marth is pretty common in comparison. How large do you think the gap is in placements between these two characters?

 

[Wintermelon43]

Let us please keep our calm, here?
Wintermelon might not have been very objective, but losing our cool is not gonna leave us to nowhere good. Wintermelon43 , I was legit curious as to why you view Marth like that. As I am an enthusiast of his, and I have friends that would definitely benefit from seeing different points of view regarding him, so I would like to know what brought you to think what you think. Clearly, something did...

Basicially, I think that Marth just doesn't really work in the long run overall as much as people say he does. His strengths aren't as good as people suggest, and he has a problem with projectiles. His top tier matchups also aren't good enough to make him top 25. That is why I view Marth like that

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Basicially, I think that Marth just doesn't really work in the long run overall as much as people say he does. His strengths aren't as good as people suggest, and he has a problem with projectiles. His top tier matchups also aren't good enough to make him top 25. That is why I view Marth like that

What characters would you rank above mark besides the general top chars. I am just curious

 

[~ Gheb ~]

MK, Villager, Falcon, Yoshi, Luigi and Toon Link are probably better than Marth even though the prevalent opinion sees Marth as superior. Mega Man is also more viable even though his overall matchup spread might be worse. Being good against Diddy and Cloud is just way too good.

Marth isn't bad anymore but he's not as good some people make it look. He loses most top tier matchups but not by more than 4/6, is about even with the majority of mid-tierish characters and wins against most lower tiered characters though not by more than 6/4. He's pretty solid but not particulaly impressive.

 

[FamilyTeam]

I'm actually curious about this topic. Is there any MU where Marth and Lucina do equally good or Lucina does better than Marth?

Equally as good, well... a lot, but that's the case with any character. Matchups where arguably Lucina does better than Marth are against characters that are fast and tend to overwhelm Marth a bit too much, like , and (though to be honest, I do believe that Sonic and Sheik are just less bad with Lucina instead of actually being good)

Solid analysis. This helped me learn a lot more about Lucina, since we don't really see her in tournaments, and I don't main her. I would like to touch up on the gap topic though, because for me personally I'm still trying to come to a full understanding of how large the gap is between the two characters. I do think Lucina does have some good tools, but she's rarely seen in tournaments, while Marth is pretty common in comparison. How large do you think the gap is in placements between these two characters?

The gap...
I don't think anybody really knows how large the gap really is between them. My mate that plays Marth and doesn't like Lucina actually says they're right next to each other, but even I think that might not be the case. We both agree that the gap really isn't that big, probably just 3-5 characters apart.
People underrate Lucina's damage output and kill power. KO% for her is still rough around 75%ish percent, and depending on your rage, an uncharged Side Smash even slightly close to the edge might get you a stock already.

 

[Djent]

Earth is a madman. He and Komorikiri have played a lot of sets in the past few months and basically come out even. The more I think about it, the more I suspect he'll emerge from his death pool (that could easily kill anyone, mind you) in winners. Even Mr.R didn't 3-0 Komo.

 

[Bowserboy3]

I am placing my opinions on Marth and Lucina into a spoiler, because the post ended up being super long. Click at your own risk, but I feel it's worth a read.

Spoiler: Marth/Lucina Analysis

The main problem with Lucina is that, killing aside, she gets overall far less reward than Marth, in many situations.

First and foremost, Lucina still needs to space her sword near the tip for her moves to be safe, like Marth. As such, Marth possessing the tipper mechanic makes this far more rewarding, because not only are his moves safer on shield because of this, he also gets more damage for actually landing these moves.

Going onto spacing, of their best spacing moves, being Dtilt, Ftilt, Fair and Nair, all of them (apart from Dtilt) KO at early/good percents when tipped for Marth. Lucina's versions of these moves, do not. This point is important, because, when at high percentages, it's no use having an Fsmash that can KO at around 80% like Lucina's, because it's just not a safe move. Sure, it KO's early, but unless you know it's going to hit, it's very unsafe to use (for both Marth and Lucina), due to it's endlag. As such, at the high percent ranges, Marth and Lucina should be playing a safety game, of safely tack on as much damage as possible before Uthrow starts to KO. Marth also has tipper Utilt which KO's at around 120%, and Lucina's doesn't KO until around Uthrow range.

That's all well and good, but, as I mentioned before, if Marth lands a tipper in these kinds of situations, he can KO much earlier than when Uthrow will start killing. This basically means Marth can KO off of spacing when Lucina cannot.

Now you might be wondering, "Well, Marth has a sourspot. Lucina doesn't have to worry about that when comboing, meaning she can deal more damage, right?". Well, in a way, that's right. However, what people like to gloss over is the fact that Marth can use his sourspots to combo into another move, when Lucina's blade (and of course, a Marth tipper) would launch too far for a follow up.

An example: at around 15%, sour Utilt chains into itself, then into an Uair, where Lucina can only hit 1 Utilt into Uair, as it launches too far for another Utilt to hit. Marth deals around 3% more in this situation, something that can be increased further if he tips his Uair.

Another: Marth uses Utilt twice. He can hit the opponent with sour Bair, and because of the low knockback, at certain percent ranges, finish with a Fair. Lucina, might be able to do 2 Utils if the percent is low enough, but her Bair launches opponents too far for a Fair follow up (and the minimally decreased reach of her moves has some small contribution into this). In this situation, Marth deals around 2% more, once again, which can be increased further if he tips the last move.

Another: This is simple; Sour Dtilt can confirm into Grab, Fair or Dancing Blade for a longer range than Lucina's.

In short, Marth can mix up his combos or options, based on whether he lands a sweetspot or sourspot, which is something Lucina for the most part cannot achieve.

Then of course, we have the facts, or proof. Marth has a bigger playerbase, and a much bigger results total. All this equates to Marth being a much more viable character than Lucina. That isn't to say Lucina is bad, so to speak, because, she does have a small few select matchups where she performs better than Marth, such as against , , and (though from personal experience, I believe this to be questionable, but w/e, that's just my opinion). So theoretically, Marth mains, such as Mr. E and Pugwest should just be able to switch to Lucina to deal with these characters. However, the fact that these Marth mains don't switch to Lucina for these matchups, and use Marth anyway makes me question how relevant this theory is. Perhaps Lucina can still more effectively fight them at close range, but perhaps the fact that Marth possesses the safer moves or more rewarding spacing game neutralises this theory? Whatever the case may be, Marth mains have shown us that they do not switch to Lucina, so I feel this point is becoming irrelevant. Pit/Dark Pit mains commonly switch between the two characters, so it makes sense for them to be grouped together. Marth and Lucina mains, do not, so why group them together?

Time for my biased opinion. I personally believe Marth currently has potential to be somewhere within the 20th-25th range on the tier list. I think, that in time, it's possible he could rise ever so slightly above this, but he's not currently there yet. But, you see, I just don't see any justification for Lucina to be that high. I don't think she's by any means bad, but she has no real solid point to warrant using her over Marth. For that reason, I think she should be placed a little more than around 5 spaces away from Marth. I disagree with the idea of her being in bottom tier (for example, like ESAM's opinion). While this realistically makes sense when looking at usage and results, the fact that she is indeed somewhat similar to Marth holds a bit of weight. I personally can't accurately place Lucina, but if I think Marth is in the 20th-25th range, I'd at least say there are at least 10 more characters that deserve to be in-between them.

In regards to Marth's viability, the fact that he has a relatively good results total, and is more common in top level play that other "higher tier" characters speaks volumes. The fact that top players are now taking him more seriously, or actually adding him to their repertoire also makes a statement on how good he may actually be (such as False now maining Marth, Leo maining him, and Ally using him every so often). Many top players also consider Marth a relatively high tier character, such as ESAM and Dabuz (who even goes as far to say Marth could be a top tier, but that's for a different story, which I disagree with anyway), and seeing as they are the top players, who know the game in general, better than any of us, I also think that says a lot too.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Ah. I'll comment some of the things I think. I'm not saying you are wrong, but I do see things from a vastly different point of view.

An example: at around 15%, sour Utilt chains into itself, then into an Uair, where Lucina can only hit 1 Utilt, as it launches too far for another to hit. Marth deals around 3% more in this situation, something that can be increased further if he tips his Uair.

Another: Marth uses Utilt twice. He can hit the opponent with sour Bair, and because of the low knockback, at certain percent ranges, finish with a Fair. Lucina, might be able to do 2 Utils if the percent is low enough, but her Bair launches opponents too far for a Fair follow up (and the minimally decreased reach of her moves has some small contribution into this). In this situation, Marth deals around 2% more, once again, which can be increased further if he tips the last move.

Actually, when it comes to Up Tilt: I'm fairly sure Up Tilt to Up Smash is true for both Marth and Lucina!
Marth's can hit in the Up Smash's tip, too, just very unreliably.
This deals 19% with Marth (Sour Up Tilt to Sour Up Smash) or 22% (Sour Up Tilt to Sweet Up Smash)
This always deals about 21% with Lucina. Also, I could get it to work with Lucina off the ground for slightly longer (Up to about 17%. Marth stopped at 15%)
And depending on the move, Lucina also can end up racking more damage than Marth. Using their Side Special:

• Lucina's Dancing Blade>Forward deals 16%;
• Lucina's Dancing Blade>Up deals 17%;
• Lucina's Dancing Blade>Down deals 24%.

Marth's version of those moves:

• Marth's Dancing Blade>Forward dealt between 15 and 17% with me, depending on Tip;
• Marth's Dancing Blade>Up dealt either 16 or 17%;
• Marth's Dancing Blade>Down dealt between 22 and 24%.

As for KO%, I didn't measure that, I don't know how to reliably do it, so it would be nice to see!

For Up Tilts, I find that I can still juggle people with my Up Air just fine, and when practicing, I actually preferred the slightly higher knockback for the kind of jiggles I used to do. But I didn't know about the Up Tilt to Bair, that sounds nice!

Also, I need to comment on this:

(and the minimally decreased reach of her moves has some small contribution into this)

This discrepancy actually doesn't exist for their horizontal range, only vertical. Even then, their discrepancy on vertical moves is very slight.

This slight, actually. Marth can hit people in the Battlefield plats with his Side Smash and Jab, yes, but not at all reliably. As for horizontal range -
I decided to test, using Duck Hunt's pixels as reference, how far their Shield Breaker would reach, expecting Marth's to reach longer, even if slightly.
After roughly half an hour of testing both of them to find their absolute maximum range, this is what my research found:

Spoiler: Zoomed in

Spoiler: Far away

Yes, I tested it long enough to assure you they can't reach a single centimetre longer than that. The target was Fox, standing still the absolute farthest you can push him to the edge, while he was doing no idle animation. Seems to me that it's exactly the same.

Also, when it comes to switching or not to Lucina on matchups that could be better for her: I think it might just be personal opinion for the player whether they end up switching or not characters for matchups. I should be switching away from Mario when someone goes Cloud or Sonic against me, but I don't really do that, even then I feel far less overwhelmed playing Lucina against Cloud than Mario versus Cloud. Those players probably feel more confident in their Marth abilities, because their options go both ways, from what I've seen: Marth can do some stuff that Lucina can't and vice versa. But this is just biased opinion, in this case. o3o

 

[Bowserboy3]

Rather than quote the whole post, I'll just tag you FamilyTeam !

Up Tilt to Up Smash is not a true combo. Up Smash comes out too late for it to be true. It's possible to jump away from it (for both characters).

Dancing Blade is a good example. Lucina in general can get reliably more damage. However, Lucina's Dancing Blade cannot KO at around 80% near the ledge. These of course, are both minor differences, that mean little. The main points are what I listed first.

And in regards to range, this is still the best comparison out there of their two ranges - http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=55251&p=3914124.

Upon comparison, Lucina's moves do still have very slightly less range in any area. It's hard to notice in game, but it's there. Once again, this point is relatively minor overall, but it can come into effect in certain areas (such as the comboing example I mentioned, or even outranging certain moves, like Sheik's Fair for example. It's a little harder to do so with Lucina than with Marth).

This set, for me, highlights the main differences of Marth and Lucina. Almost every KO Marth got in this set, wouldn't have happened if you replaced Marth with Lucina in the exact same situations, like the early Dancing Blade KO on ZSS, or the tipper Fsmash KO's - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFS59DgNvSs

 

[FamilyTeam]

Rather than quote the whole post, I'll just tag you FamilyTeam !

Up Tilt to Up Smash is not a true combo. Up Smash comes out too late for it to be true. It's possible to jump away from it (for both characters).

Dancing Blade is a good example. Lucina in general can get reliably more damage. However, Lucina's Dancing Blade cannot KO at around 80% near the ledge. These of course, are both minor differences, that mean little. The main points are what I listed first.

And in regards to range, this is still the best comparison out there of their two ranges - http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=55251&p=3914124.

Upon comparison, Lucina's moves do still have very slightly less range in any area. It's hard to notice in game, but it's there. Once again, this point is relatively minor overall, but it can come into effect in certain areas (such as the comboing example I mentioned, or even outranging certain moves, like Sheik's Fair for example. It's a little harder to do so with Lucina than with Marth).

Actually, their sword trails are... pretty bad ways of telling their range apart. Marth's trail is much bigger than his actual range, like the video I posted clearly shows, and that is especially true with his Side Smash. I also heard that their hitbox positioning is exactly the same, too, and that the only really Lucina cannot hit people on platforms even if unreliably is due to her being slightly shorter.
I'll re-test their Side Smash right now and post whatever I find later.

 

[PK Gaming]

I find that I still KO a lot of foes with Lucina's Back and Neutral Air near the ledge.
I don't know if I'm remembering correctly, but... I think I once KO'd a Cloud 1/4 through DreamLand at about 117%. I also tend to KO characters at surprisingly low percents with her uncharged Side Smash near the ledge.
Both Marth and Lucina have really good edgeguarding tools, though.

Lucina definitely can, just at a later %. I did some basic (ie: rough) testing on FD, and found that:

Lucina's Bair KOs roughly 10% after Marth's tipper Bair.
Lucinar's Nair KOs roughly 20% after Marth's tipper Nair.
Lucina's Ftilt KOs roughly 40% after Marth's tipper Ftilt

Getting earlier KOs on good normals is crucial and it's the main reason why Marth is better.

 

[TTTTTsd]

The main reason Marth is better IMO is Ftilt. Lucina's Ftilt is a fair move. Marth's Ftilt is not a fair move at all LOL. I want to see more Marth Ftilt at top level, it's such a crazy good move especially with the FAF buff it received rather recently.

I got ninja'd mad hard. Respect to the other Canadian guy PK Gaming for taking my soul

 

[Bowserboy3]

Actually, their sword trails are... pretty bad ways of telling their range apart. Marth's trail is much bigger than his actual range, like the video I posted clearly shows, and that is especially true with his Side Smash. I also heard that their hitbox positioning is exactly the same, too, and that the only really Lucina cannot hit people on platforms even if unreliably is due to her being slightly shorter.
I'll re-test their Side Smash right now and post whatever I find later.

Forward Smash still shouldn't reach through Battlefield's platform like in the example anyway. If hurtboxes are anything like they were in past games, a lot of character's feet aren't actually covered in hurtboxes. Because Forward Smash doesn't have the power to reach noticeably above the platforms like in Melee and Brawl, this method of comparison can be inconsistent.

Whatever happens, Lucina cannot even get the random hits Marth can. That shows you she has less range.

Look at these - http://smashboards.com/threads/samus-hitboxes-and-frame-data.320253/ - http://smashboards.com/threads/sheik-hitboxes-and-frame-data.299984/ - http://smashboards.com/threads/ganondorf-hitboxes-and-frame-data.303443/. The whole of the characters feet aren't covered.

@Browny made a good thread ages ago on Mewtwo's hitboxes which proves my point further. Check the image in this thread where Marth is using Dtilt on Mewtwo's feet. His feet aren't being hit, and thus, don't have a hurtbox - http://smashboards.com/threads/the-misconceptions-about-mewtwos-hurtbox-end-here.416127/

 

[Illuminose]

Are you saying that I'm bad vs villager because I lost to mjg 9 months ago lol I definitely learned some more about the match up since then, but ranai is gdlk so it'll be hard regardless if we do end up facing off. But I see you just want japan to dominate lolol

The point is historically, that isn't really a callout more than a fact. Obviously things will be different in some ways now, but I'm going off the data we have. I think Ranai should be generally favored based on that data and that he's the best Villager in the world AND that's he's amazing, but anything can happen.

Also I realistically think Japan probably caps at 2 or 3 top 8 spots. I just wanted to highlight players who I think have potential to make that run, but I don't think all of the players I mentioned will. When I say there's potential that is all I'm trying to say. My point is purely analytical, that based on their brackets and previous data multiple Japanese players have a good shot of getting in top 8 and even winning depending on how them and their matches turn out. Most runs are based on at least 2 coinflip sets anyways.