Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

[Das Koopa]

Immediate cause for concern on that Kamemushi hype train: Zenyou and JK X-0'd him at the Vegas tourney last night.

On the other hand, Earth beat Komorikiri 2-1 across thirteen games (3-2 2-3 3-0)

 

[FamilyTeam]

I'm back with my tests.

Spoiler: Zoomed in

Please don't ask what just happened with the orientation of the first one

Spoiler: Zoomed out

Don't ask either

It seems like it is pretty much identical, actually. Yes, Lucina's sword hits far beyond the trail horizontally.

 

[verbatim]

What's Earth's theoretical run to make top 32? I remember someone saying he had a death pool.


Looked it up during lunch. One of Angel Cortez/Ksev --> M2K --> Tweek. Assuming his recent string of set victories was against Komorikiri's Cloud then that bodes pretty well for him.

Double Edit: If Nientono beats Marss in pools 2 he gets a bye into top 32 winner's side.


Triple Edit: Wrath and Ken are in the same pool, and so are CaptainAwesum and True Blue, someone please stream those.

 

[ReRaze]

Why should Lucina be so far below Marth?
Are there any MU's Marth wins that Lucina doesn't?
Isn't a major component of tier lists how well a character does against the rest of the cast?
afaik There are no MU's that Marth wins that Lucina wont (maybe slight differences in ratios but not enough to affect overall viability), they are practically the same character with the same buttons. She's gonna be doing practically just as well as Marth in any fight, they're clones.
He's only slightly better because of his tipper mechanic, and I say slightly because that tipper isn't going to magically help you win more matches, if you played him over her, they're both still heavily reliant on fundamentals after all.

First and foremost, Lucina still needs to space her sword near the tip for her moves to be safe, like Marth. As such, Marth possessing the tipper mechanic makes this far more rewarding, because not only are his moves safer on shield because of this, he also gets more damage for actually landing these moves.

His moves are safer sure but unless he's able to get more out of it than Lucina (e.g enough shield stun to force people to hold shield or get jabbed) there really isn't any added benefit to that. Their aerials are both safe and that's pretty much all there is to it, a few frames extra of safety on shield won't help much if you can't do much with it.
That extra damage on the tipper doesn't matter if you're hitting a shield. They both get punished for mispacing on shield. And on Hit marth's reward for tipper is higher but his sourspot is lower, unless every hit you land is a tipper it kinda balances out in terms of damage. In the heat of the moment of say a string e.g a fair chain do people actually stop and think to try and space the next fair to land a tipper? probably not. Of course this applies to the situations where you would want to land a sourspot for combos too. Marth does have the potential to completely outshine Lucina in terms of kill power, raw damage and more combo potential but human limitation is what's holding him back.

Going onto spacing, of their best spacing moves, being Dtilt, Ftilt, Fair and Nair, all of them (apart from Dtilt) KO at early/good percents when tipped for Marth. Lucina's versions of these moves, do not. This point is important, because, when at high percentages, it's no use having an Fsmash that can KO at around 80% like Lucina's, because it's just not a safe move. Sure, it KO's early, but unless you know it's going to hit, it's very unsafe to use (for both Marth and Lucina), due to it's endlag. As such, at the high percent ranges, Marth and Lucina should be playing a safety game, of safely tack on as much damage as possible before Uthrow starts to KO. Marth also has tipper Utilt which KO's at around 120%, and Lucina's doesn't KO until around Uthrow range. That's all well and good, but, as I mentioned before, if Marth lands a tipper in these kinds of situations, he can KO much earlier than when Uthrow will start killing. This basically means Marth can KO off of spacing when Lucina cannot.

Alot of their kills will come from gimps offstage and frankly its more difficult to space against a mobile character offstage when everyone has godlike recoveries. Knowing your fair, bair or nair will reliably kill at 100% offstage is nice, rather than worrying about if you land the sourspot. And its not hard to get the opponent offstage at that percent with just a single swing. She's not restricted to waiting until uthrow kill percents, she can still kill safely at those percents just not in the same way as Marth.

Also, look at it from the other spectrum, Lucina can seal the stock earlier than marth can reliably due to moves like usmash and fsmash which aren't exactly hard to land considering the size, power and speed of the moves making them great for punishes as well as the silly setups into them. While marth has to wait until the opponent is generally past 100% for a tipper tilt/aerial to kill. Kinda scary when you're a light character, and he struggles killing any earlier than that without a gimp or a tipper.

I do still think Marth is the better character, just not by as much as people make it out to be.

 

[Zelder]

Immediate cause for concern on that Kamemushi hype train: Zenyou and JK X-0'd him at the Vegas tourney last night.

On the other hand, Earth beat Komorikiri 2-1 across thirteen games (3-2 2-3 3-0)

My good man, who was streaming this tourney? I wanna check out them VODs.

 

[ReRaze]

My good man, who was streaming this tourney? I wanna check out them VODs.

Unfortunately they didn't have a stream
They did ask people to save replays though iirc, so hopefully those go up.

 

[AnEventHorizon]

One thing that people are neglecting when saying that Marth's tippers kill at earlier percents, is that Lucina is already doing more damage on average than Marth. Yes he might kill better at '80' for example, but Lucina's opponent's % would be higher, and that's something to remember when comparing them.

Lucina's damage, especially in her aerials, is often higher than that 50% point between Marths sourspots and tippers.

Lucina's bair, for example averages between an 80% of Marth tipper hits and 20% sour hits. At 11.8 damage, she basically has a faster version of Ike's old fair as her bair.

Her Ftilt (10.95 dmg) is at the 65% tipper point. Her fair is at the 67% tipper point. Etc.

This is not to mention the fact that Marths already often do less than 50% tippers. The last time I clocked Pugwest, he varied from 20-40% tippers. Lower % for more mobile opponents of course.

It's also a bit wrong to try to say 'But Marth has sourspot combos Lucina can't do' while neglecting the fact that Lucina also has combos Marth has trouble doing. I doubt her combo potential has been explored as much as Martha.

 

[FamilyTeam]

I tested their Down Tilt too, this is the difference:

Spoiler: Zoomed in

Spoiler: Zoomed out

Or, dare I say it, the pretty much lack thereof.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Immediate cause for concern on that Kamemushi hype train: Zenyou and JK X-0'd him at the Vegas tourney last night.

On the other hand, Earth beat Komorikiri 2-1 across thirteen games (3-2 2-3 3-0)

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We don't even know what characters they used.

 

[ReRaze]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We don't even know what characters they used.

A tweet confirmed he did use megaman. Though he used some other characters too; Cloud iirc?
Zenyou: Mario
JK: Bayonetta
Earth: Pit
Komorikiri: Sonic/Cloud

edit: Actually, here's a link for top 9 https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/4ss6dp/psg_classic_2016_preevo_tourney_results/

 

[PK Gaming]

One thing that people are neglecting when saying that Marth's tippers kill at earlier percents, is that Lucina is already doing more damage on average than Marth. Yes he might kill better at '80' for example, but Lucina's opponent's % would be higher, and that's something to remember when comparing them.

I'm not sure that's always the case, but even if it was, the difference in their average damage would be trivial at best.

Their difference in KO power however, is not.

Here's Marth KOing Corrin at 97% with Nair, which is something Lucina could never do.

Again, I must stress this point. Marth KOs noticeably earlier than Lucina on with his normals. This is the single most important factor for their gap.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Again, I must stress this point. Marth KOs noticeably earlier than Lucina on with his normals. This is the single most important factor for their gap.

The problem I always see with this point is that it goes both ways. Marth's Normal moves KO "noticeably" earlier than Lucina with the tipper only, without the tipper you are KOing noticeably later, and it's not like Lucina is in any way KOing anyone late.

 

[TTTTTsd]

I mean, this is a good discussion and all but she still doesn't have the Frame 8 FAF of 33 kill you on-stage at like 100-110% (with moderate rage, not even that much) Ftilt that's really easy to tip and has a GIGANTIC hitbox (even w/ tip) that I've seen hit below the ledge.

You can literally spam Marth Ftilt against someone backed near the ledge and they have to respect that. If it tips they basically die if they're at any kind of respectable % (120 usually with no rage I think). It's not even remotely unsafe unless you start using it really poorly. Try not to stale it as well, it doesn't strike me as seeing much use outside of killing anyways.

Like sure there's the other tippers and whatnot but if you want the actual reason I'd use Marth that I really can't stress enough so I'll detail it more here, it's that stupid, stupid Ftilt. Having more interesting sourspot setups/traps due to the nature of tipper vs. flubber is interesting too I guess, but man...Ftilt.

I've even heard accounts of tipper Ftilt hitting behind him and killing LOL. It covers platforms way cleaner than FSmash ever will too for some reason, it's just a silly move.

Lucina might kill you at like 80 with an FSmash but Marth waits like 20-30 more percent at most if you don't factor rage and can then spam a much, much safer kill option with impunity. Or he can kill you at silly low %s if he lands a tipper FSmash or edgeguards (both of these are rare but they're in tandem with Ftilt.)

 

[~ Gheb ~]

A tweet confirmed he did use megaman. Though he used some other characters too; Cloud iirc?
Zenyou: Mario
JK: Bayonetta
Earth: Pit
Komorikiri: Sonic/Cloud

edit: Actually, here's a link for top 9 https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/4ss6dp/psg_classic_2016_preevo_tourney_results/

That's pretty impressive by JK then.

Anybody happen to know his EVO pool?

 

[Bowserboy3]

Again, I must stress this point. Marth KOs noticeably earlier than Lucina on with his normals. This is the single most important factor for their gap.

Pretty much the main reason why Marth is used more than Lucina, and is considered better.

I just find it odd why we can put one character up because of potential, but others not. Why should we rank Lucina up on a potential basis (I say potential, because that's what it is; she has very little representation and next to no results), when we don't rank other characters that way? Heck, if we're doing it like that, shall we put Ryu on the top of the tier list while we're at it?

If Lucina got used nearly as much as Marth, I wouldn't have as much as a problem. The fact that she gets used very little, and even when she does, gets relatively poor results, shows me that she just doesn't deserve to be up there with Marth, especially when there are far more characters performing and appearing more than her.

Could be a poor example, but remember Ice Climbers or Olimar in Brawl? They weren't always placed as high as they are in the tier list. They only started moving upwards when they started showing us we had reason to pick them/fear them - when they started getting results in tournament. It's relatively similar for Lucina. Now I'm not saying that Marth or Lucina are secret top tier characters, no. What I am saying is that the process is the same; when a character starts performing, we generally move them up. It's probably for this reason why Ryu isn't number 1, as he just isn't performing like we hope/want. Until Lucina starts getting a solid amount of results, I don't see any reason why she should be placed almost directly next to Marth, who gets used far more, and when there are other characters who deserve those spots more.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Frankly, the biggest problem really isn't Lucina herself, it's just who uses her. It's sad to see that most Lucina mains tend to just go 0-2 in tournaments, because this way we don't really see what maybe could be her best potential. I wonder where even are all the Lucina mains?
Frankly, don't really count on me... I don't even know how long I'll be playing Smash.

 

[ARGHETH]

Posted too soon

 

[PK Gaming]

The problem I always see with this point is that it goes both ways. Marth's Normal moves KO "noticeably" earlier than Lucina with the tipper only, without the tipper you are KOing noticeably later, and it's not like Lucina is in any way KOing anyone late.

It only seems like it goes both ways on paper, but it's definitely not the case in practice. Marth is KOing earlier on his most important normals; Lucina having stronger untippered hits isn't really relevant for KOIng on everything barring her Smash attacks, which are niche moves to begin with. Furthermore, it isn't difficult for Marth to land tipper hits, because optimal Marth/Lucina play forces you to play at maximum zoning distance.

 

[Pyr]

Frankly, the biggest problem really isn't Lucina herself, it's just who uses her. It's sad to see that most Lucina mains tend to just go 0-2 in tournaments, because this way we don't really see what maybe could be her best potential. I wonder where even are all the Lucina mains?
Frankly, don't really count on me... I don't even know how long I'll be playing Smash.

If all her players are going 0-2 in tourny, I do believe that we are seeing her level of potential: not good.
As for where all the Lucina mains are, it's extremely hard to justify player her when there is a character that is, in every sense of the word, literally the same, but better.

 

[dakotaisgreat]

Does it stand to reason to say that all of the best Marth players can probably play a perfectly good Lucina anyways. I have not thought about this nearly enough to have a solid concrete opinion on the subject, but Lucina can't possibly be that much worse than Marth. Doesn't she have kill options that simply don't exist on Marth, tipper aside? Dolphin Slash is a strong kill move on Lucina but I don't think Marth's kills at a reasonable percent, as an example.

Also I love how an unsweetspotted dancing blade does more damage than a sweet spotted double edge dance, thanks Sakurai. Double Edge Dance can kill though so I guess it isn't all bad.

If all her players are going 0-2 in tourny, I do believe that we are seeing her level of potential: not good.
As for where all the Lucina mains are, it's extremely hard to justify player her when there is a character that is, in every sense of the word, literally the same, but better.

This is what I mean though, any of the good Marth mains are more than likely perfectly capable of using Lucina too. I think it would be helpful if we were able to ask the top Marth players if there are any matchups Lucina is preferred, and if not, I'd like to know exactly why they prefer Marth in every situation. That's a big IF though, I'm sure Marth isn't optimal every single time.

 

[ReRaze]

I mean, this is a good discussion and all but she still doesn't have the Frame 8 FAF of 33 kill you on-stage at like 100-110% (with moderate rage, not even that much) Ftilt that's really easy to tip and has a GIGANTIC hitbox (even w/ tip) that I've seen hit below the ledge
.......
Lucina might kill you at like 80 with an FSmash but Marth waits like 20-30 more percent at most if you don't factor rage and can then spam a much, much safer kill option with impunity. Or he can kill you at silly low %s if he lands a tipper FSmash or edgeguards (both of these are rare but they're in tandem with Ftilt.)

Yeah I agree, frankly it's that single move that cleanly puts him above Lucina. Ftilt is just ridiculously good.
But apart from that his pros over lucina aren't really significant enough to drastically outweigh the cons, or rather, her pros.

I just find it odd why we can put one character up because of potential, but others not. Why should we rank Lucina up on a potential basis (I say potential, because that's what it is; she has very little representation and next to no results), when we don't rank other characters that way? Heck, if we're doing it like that, shall we put Ryu on the top of the tier list while we're at it?

It's like Pit and Dark Pit, Dark Pit has even fewer results than Lucina but we still put him right under Pit. The main difference between the two is basically Dark Pit kills easier (even his weaker ftilt sets up into side b), is that not similiar situation with Marth and Lucina? It's different for other characters because Marth and Lucina are so similiar that their results can help support each other's viability (or rather one-sidedly carry in this case).

it isn't difficult for Marth to land tipper hits, because optimal Marth/Lucina play has you playing at maximum zoning distance to begin with.

I think AnEventHorizon Horizon pointed out that even one of the best Marths can't play "optimally". I doubt any human can space every tipper impeccably during a match.

If all her players are going 0-2 in tourny, I do believe that we are seeing her level of potential: not good.

As for all those lucina's going 0-2. That's the players' fault, as I said earlier, switching to Marth won't magically start winning them games.

 

[ARGHETH]

If all her players are going 0-2 in tourny, I do believe that we are seeing her level of potential: not good.
As for where all the Lucina mains are, it's extremely hard to justify player her when there is a character that is, in every sense of the word, literally the same, but better.

If people aren't maining Lucina because there's anther characters seen as far better, then you can't say anything about potential because not that many people are maining her in the first place.
Even Ganondorf, Zelda, and Jigglypuff have people getting decent results; I don't really think everyone going 0-2 is an indication of anything.

 

[PK Gaming]

I think AnEventHorizon Horizon pointed out that even one of the best Marths can't play "optimally". I doubt any human can space every tipper impeccably during a match.

I never said anything about landing every tipper. But you would agree that Marth mains are landing tippers, yes?

And those tipper hits can contribute significantly to Marth's performance in a given match.

 

[Y2Kay]

I think the Mewtwo MU is one match up where the ratios are different. Mewtwo just does a lot of Marcina things better than they can, but Marth's tipper is really the saving grace in that MU.

 

[Bowserboy3]

I think AnEventHorizon Horizon pointed out that even one of the best Marths can't play "optimally". I doubt any human can space every tipper impeccably during a match.

I think you are missing the point of the term "optimally".

It's not optimally in that that "Marth will be landing over 75% of his tippers". Optimally in this case means playing the character in the way to get the most out of them. Both Marth and Lucina must be played almost identically; spacing a sourspot with Marth is of course unsafe, but even though Lucina doesn't have a sour spot, her moves are still unsafe unless they are spaced near the tip. As such, for them both to be played "optimally", they both need to be hitting near the tip of their sword, which of course, we all know, Marth gets more reward for. Regardless of the fact that one character might be slightly better at a small combo than the other, the fact still stands that Marth gets more reward off of optimal playstyle. The best example I can think of, is the commonly mentioned Ftilt. Unless it's spaced at the tip (for both characters), it's unsafe on shield, and can be punished. However, let's say the opponent is at 110%. If the opponent does not respect the move, they might get hit by it. From Marth, they will be KO'd. Lucina, they will not. As such, for playing Marth and Lucina in the optimal manner, Marth gets a better reward from it. Hence why he gets used more over Lucina, and hence why he gets more results than her.

I think the Mewtwo MU is one match up where the ratios are different. Mewtwo just does a lot of Marcina things better than they can, but Marth's tipper is really the saving grace in that MU.

Off topic a moment, another thing that hurts Mewtwo in that matchup is that it's surprisingly easy to land a tipper on him when he's in tumble, or even his double jump animation. I have gotten a surprising amount of Fsmash Tipper hits on a Mewtwo using his double jump to recover to the ledge. This was before he had even snaps the ledge.

 

[FamilyTeam]

If all her players are going 0-2 in tourny, I do believe that we are seeing her level of potential: not good.
As for where all the Lucina mains are, it's extremely hard to justify player her when there is a character that is, in every sense of the word, literally the same, but better.

You're really not being fair. There is such a thing as something being the players' fault. The fact of the matter is that most people use Marth, and the ones that do use Lucina aren't great. The way you are speaking really is implying that somehow if they switched from Lucina to Marth that they'd gain some massive boost in performance.
Also, Marth really isn't "better in every way". It's actually making me wonder if you even know what you're talking about.

 

[ReRaze]

I never said anything about landing every tipper. But you would agree that Marth mains are landing tippers, yes?

And those tipper hits can contribute significantly to Marth's performance in a given match.

Yeah...and "optimal" Marth is pretty much landing every tipper, you said it yourself, optimal Marth/Lucina play forces you to play at maximum zoning distance, i.e tipper range.
Optimal literally means best or most favourable, i.e perfect. And perfect gameplay for marth would involve impeccable spacing for tippers or sourspots whenever necessary? Am I right?
Pugwest and MrE are really really good Marths, but they aren't "optimal" in that sense. They're as good as we get.
Unless you are playing "optimally" the overall reward you're getting from marth won't outweigh Lucina's drastically.

I think you are missing the point of the term "optimally".
It's not optimally in that that "Marth will be landing over 75% of his tippers". Optimally in this case means playing the character in the way to get the most out of them.

You get the most out of marth if you space all his tippers and sourspots perfectly.

 

[PK Gaming]

Yeah...and "optimal" Marth is pretty much landing every tipper, you said it yourself, optimal Marth/Lucina play forces you to play at maximum zoning distance, i.e tipper range.
Optimal literally means best or most favourable, i.e perfect. And perfect gameplay for marth would involve impeccable spacing for tippers or sourspots whenever necessary? Am I right?
Pugwest and MrE are really really good Marths, but they aren't "optimal" in that sense. They're as good as we get.
Unless you are playing "optimally" the overall reward you're getting from marth won't outweigh Lucina's drastically.

You get the most out of marth if you space all his tippers and sourspots perfectly.

I think you're conflating "optimal" with "perfect." Optimal in Marth's case does not mean literally landing every tipper. It means playing in a way where you maximize the distance between Marth and his opponent and zoning them with his normals. It just so happens that doing this also lets him make use out of his tipper trait.

Let me be clear; it is literally impossible to "guarantee" tippers since it's ultimately out of your control, but you can significantly increase your chances by spacing/zoning—in other words, by playing optimally!

 

[ReRaze]

I think you're conflating "optimal" with "perfect." Optimal in Marth's case does not mean literally landing every tipper. It means playing in a way where you maximize the distance between Marth and his opponent and zoning them with his normals. It just so happens that doing this also lets him make use out of his tipper trait.

Let me be clear; it is literally impossible to "guarantee" tippers since it's ultimately out of your control, but you can significantly increase your chances by spacing/zoning—in other words, by playing optimally!

Even without the subjective uses of wording. My point still stands, that even the best Marths aren't using the tipper and sourspot mechanic well enough to noticeably outweigh Lucina's reward.
It is impossible to "guarantee" tippers and thats the thing you can increase your chances but by how much? There are human limits.

 

[Bowserboy3]

There are human limits.

But, Limits are made to be broken...

sorry I had too don't shoot me plz

 

[JustSomeScrub]

http://vegassmash.challonge.com/TZsmash4

Here are the results of a recent Vegas tournament featuring various top Japanese players. Earth ends up winning the whole thing.

Watch out for Earth as a dark horse at Evo. This guy has a been a top Pit player forever (as mentioned earlier he beat M2K's MK twice in Brawl with Pit). Pit has no reps at high level in NA AFAIK, Earth has the potential to catch a lot of people off guard.

 

[FamilyTeam]

But, Limits are made to be broken...

sorry I had too don't shoot me plz

限界を越える
How to know if you need to learn kanji better: When I literally recognize none of those 3.
Actually, let's try talking Cloud? Like, I'm really curious as to what people have been really thinking about him. Some people are placing him as the best character in the game which honestly feels like an exaggeration...

 

[blackghost]

I think you're conflating "optimal" with "perfect." Optimal in Marth's case does not mean literally landing every tipper. It means playing in a way where you maximize the distance between Marth and his opponent and zoning them with his normals. It just so happens that doing this also lets him make use out of his tipper trait.

Let me be clear; it is literally impossible to "guarantee" tippers since it's ultimately out of your control, but you can significantly increase your chances by spacing/zoning—in other words, by playing optimally!

using your logic how can marths greatest asseset (tippers) make him so much better than lucina if its not under your control to land them? so its chance? id seriously like to watch a match from pugwest or another marth and see what percentage of hits/kills are from tippers or caused by tippers.
and dont get confused while optimal isnt equal to perfect play its the goal to get as close to it as possible and i think we can all agree no character has reached that point. dont think anyone is even close.

 

[ReRaze]

But, Limits are made to be broken...

sorry I had too don't shoot me plz

I walked into that one >.<

using your logic how can marths greatest asseset (tippers) make him so much better than lucina if its not under your control to land them? so its chance? id seriously like to watch a match from pugwest or another marth and see what percentage of hits/kills are from tippers or caused by tippers.
and dont get confused while optimal isnt equal to perfect play its the goal to get as close to it as possible and i think we can all agree no character has reached that point. dont think anyone is even close.

And doubt we ever will, practice makes perfect is a lie...we're humans we're bound to always makes mistakes.

Wait does that mean practice makes optimal?

 

[Bowserboy3]

Regarding Cloud, I personally think he's one of the best characters in the game. However, I don't think he's signle-handedly the best character, like some people do.

I saw the results of Reddit's monthly voted tier list the other day (I will link it when I can, the servers are down at the moment apparently). Granted, while it's probably the best list Reddit as a whole has come up with yet, there's one thing that is very questionable, and that's Cloud being at the top of the list, in his own tier.

That to me is totally out of order. He's good, but (thankfully) he's not Brawl Meta Knight level, and he's not even Melee Fox level warranting a gap. If you ask me, there is no one best character in the game right now. For me, personally, , and are all so good and are performing right now that it's impossible to say who's the definitive best out of them.

It's that prospect that makes me excited and enthusiastic about Smash 4 in general. The overall balance and viability of the cast is so much more streamlined this time around. While of course, there are still unviable characters, most characters this time have something to shout about.

 

[dakotaisgreat]

An interesting experiment would be to take any given Marth/Lucina game, watch it in slow motion, count up the hits, count up the tipper KO's, and by the end you'd be able to see 100% without a doubt which character would have been more useful to have in that exact fight. Though as someone said above, a tipper KO for Marth may not necessarily mean the KO would be missed as Lucina. If Marth gets a tipper'd Fsmash to kill the opponent, but had previously missed so many sweet spotted attacks that the opponent would have had 15% more damage and died anyways if he was Lucina, then you wouldn't count it.

I'll actually do this for one set and post the results here, someone post a really good Marth set, I'll break it down, tally up the % of all the attacks and fill you guys in.

This is not some way for me to attempt to prove anything about tiers, this is purely for entertainment and out of interest. I'm not trying to make a point here.

 

[L9999]

Frankly, the biggest problem really isn't Lucina herself, it's just who uses her. It's sad to see that most Lucina mains tend to just go 0-2 in tournaments, because this way we don't really see what maybe could be her best potential. I wonder where even are all the Lucina mains?
Frankly, don't really count on me... I don't even know how long I'll be playing Smash.

Sadly no one memorable. Yet. I know they exist....

But, Limits are made to be broken...

sorry I had too don't shoot me plz

Then you have robots that play with purely pure perfection.

 

[PK Gaming]

using your logic how can marths greatest asseset (tippers) make him so much better than lucina if its not under your control to land them? so its chance? id seriously like to watch a match from pugwest or another marth and see what percentage of hits/kills are from tippers or caused by tippers.
and dont get confused while optimal isnt equal to perfect play its the goal to get as close to it as possible and i think we can all agree no character has reached that point. dont think anyone is even close.

Marth isn't "so much better" than Lucina. I don't think I've ever made this claim, and I really want to make it clear to everyone that I don't believe that; The point i'm trying to make is that there is a gap between the 2 characters. Not a huge gap mind you, but a gap nonetheless. In any case, I think you're looking at the tipper mechanic wrong. The downside to not landing a tipper isn't significant, but the upside to landing a tipper kill is very significant. Let's compare the some KO % based on the thread that was recently linked:

Ftilt vs Mario at the center of FD: 147% (tippered) 288% (non-tippered)

Ftilt vs Mario: 200%

This tells me a few things. Neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Ftilt. However, if Marth lands a tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO option at higher % (especially near the ledge). A tipper forward tilt isn't guaranteed, but Marth has an objective upside to spacing his Ftilt while Lucina does not.

Now let's take a look at some of his aerials:

Nair vs Mario: 133% (tippered) 220% (non-tippered)

Nair vs Mario: 178%

Bair vs Mario: 132% (tippered) 204% (non-tippered)

Bair vs Mario: 156%

Again, neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Nair/Bair. However, if Marth lands his tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO move at higher % (especially near the ledge). Starting to notice a pattern? Marth's penalty for not landing a tipper isn't that big of a deal, but his gains for landing a tipper are notable. Even if these gains aren't consistent, they almost always factor into a match.

Don't believe me? Watch this match between Mr.E and Cosmos

Nearly every single on of Mr.E's KOs are from tippers. In this match, he got:

-Tipper Bair(x2)
-Tipper Fsmash
-Tipper Nair (arguably his most important one. He gets a KO on Corrin at 97%, giving him a a major lead)

And he could have potentially got an a KO from max charge Fsmash after the Shield Break.

The above is the main reason why most high level players opt for Marth over Lucina. Both characters play the same, but she doesn't have the luxury of benefiting from early KOs via tipper, and it should go without saying, but KO ability is extremely important in this game.

 

[Dark.Pch]

Who said this was hard for Sonic?

Peach only beats the Sonic if they are dedicated to abusing Spin Dash. Too many of Peach's moves beat it out straight up.

Would that not make it hard for sonic to do freely as he wants? Thus making it hard for sonic in general? The fact that sonic has to chill out makes it easier for one to get close to him and force a block to pressure or counter attack him. In this case ground float nair.

And while on this subject, there is something I wanna not on Umeki vs Komo. Umeki was floating ALOT to dair. Or just dair in general. Komo waiting for it to counter or Punish on landing. This left him open too many times. Peach is open from the waist up on that move. And she is slow in the air. Sonic can punish her easily on wiff. And does not have to challenge that move. Which is what you saw Komo doing. He was leaving himself open too much to gain/keep control. People can just easily move away or counter this. That was not the way he should have been dealing with sonic to give him a hard time. And because of this, will tend to think this match up sucks cause a high level player lost this way. Which is not true.

 

[Illuminose]

btw just because people are talking about him, Earth's EVO bracket to top 8 through winners is Ksev/Z->M2K->Tweek/cyve->(r1 top 32) ANTi->Mr.R/Kame. If he loses to ANTi he has something like Rain->loser of Mr R/Kame->Ally to top 8. If he beats ANTi then loses to winner of Mr R/Kame, he fights probably Vinnie, FOW, or Nietono to make top 8. Wish we could have seen the matches but I'm definitely impressed by Earth from yesterday and his recent play in general. His bracket is hard af thoooo.

Other quite impressive performances yesterday came from JK and Shimitake. JK beating Rain, Raito, and Kamemushi as well as taking a game off KEN speaks for itself. He's one of those players that doesn't travel but I'm just interested to see what he does at EVO now. He's in Ally's R1 pool which is rough and then he has a R2 pool with Zinoto, Regi, Tyrant, Nyanko, Aphro, Darkshad, and MJG. Top 32 would be hard when he's gonna be stuck dealing with many highly skilled players in losers unless he somehow beats Ally, but given who he was able to beat yesterday I wouldn't be overtly surprised if JK makes an upset or 2. Shimitake beat Lycan, Dren, and HIKARU after losing early to Lethal Trilogy. Shimitake's level of performance seems to be kinda random, as he has wins over those + players like Earth, Kie, Umeki, and Yuzu but very often loses early and performs poorly. Have virtually no faith for him to do well at EVO but his situation is worth noting.

Oh, and a quick funny fact: this is the highest Rain has ever placed in a US tournament and his first time in top 8 since APEX 2010, heh.