Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

[ReRaze]

Marth isn't "so much better" than Lucina. I don't think I've ever made this claim, and I really want to make it clear to everyone that I don't believe that; The point i'm trying to make is that there is a gap between the 2 characters. Not a huge gap mind you, but a gap nonetheless. In any case, I think you're looking at the tipper mechanic wrong. The downside to not landing a tipper isn't significant, but the upside to landing a tipper kill is very significant. Let's compare the some KO % based on the thread that was recently linked:

Ftilt vs Mario at the center of FD: 147% (tippered) 288% (non-tippered)

Ftilt vs Mario: 200%

This tells me a few things. Neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Ftilt. However, if Marth lands a tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO option at higher % (especially near the ledge). A tipper forward tilt isn't guaranteed, but Marth has an objective upside to spacing his Ftilt while Lucina does not.

Now let's take a look at some of his aerials:

Nair vs Mario: 133% (tippered) 220% (non-tippered)

Nair vs Mario: 178%

Bair vs Mario: 132% (tippered) 204% (non-tippered)

Bair vs Mario: 156%

Again, neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Nair/Bair. However, if Marth lands his tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO move at higher % (especially near the ledge). Starting to notice a pattern? Marth's penalty for not landing a tipper isn't that big of a deal, but his gains for landing a tipper are notable. Even if these gains aren't consistent, they almost always factor into a match.

Don't believe me? Watch this match between Mr.E and Cosmos

Nearly every single on of Mr.E's KOs are from tippers. In this match, he got:

-Tipper Bair(x2)
-Tipper Fsmash
-Tipper Nair (arguably his most important one. He gets a KO on Corrin at 97%, giving him a a major lead)

And he could have potentially got an a KO from max charge Fsmash after the Shield Break.

The above is the main reason why most high level players opt for Marth over Lucina. Both characters play the same, but she doesn't have the luxury of benefiting from early KOs via tipper, and it should go without saying, but KO ability is extremely important in this game.

Firstly those results are percents for the 3DS version, and they don't or rather shouldnt be trying to kill that late in general anyway (those are uthrow kill percent numbers). Even at percents lower than that if it didn't kill, those moves would knock the opponent offstage where Lucinas aerials will kill and Marth's only with a tipper. There are pros and cons for both of them.

Also its funny how you brought up that vid, because every single one of those kills Mr.E got (aside from nair, which was some terribad DI), Lucina would have killed in the same situation using the same moves, not even including the fact that her overall damage output using the same moves he did would have been higher if you counted his sourspots.

 

[Radical Larry]

In terms of killing efficiency, Marth absolutely cannot kill that well without the tip of his sword, and remember that his tipper hitboxes aren't exactly the biggest thing out there by far. You're more likely to simply hit Marth's blade than the tip, so in terms of efficiency and consistency, Lucina is able to kill earlier than Marth, since no human ever can always hit tippers with Marth in a match.

Lucina doesn't do that much damage in comparison to Marth's tipper attacks, but she at least has consistency. In all honesty, she could be better than Marth in terms of tiers since she's more in line with consistency. With Marth, you have to rely on tippers for good kills, but if you aren't confident that you'll land them, pick Lucina instead and go with her consistent hitboxes. Again, Marth can kill with tip, but if you can't hit them constantly, why are you even playing him and not Lucina?

 

[blackghost]

Marth isn't "so much better" than Lucina. I don't think I've ever made this claim, and I really want to make it clear to everyone that I don't believe that; The point i'm trying to make is that there is a gap between the 2 characters. Not a huge gap mind you, but a gap nonetheless. In any case, I think you're looking at the tipper mechanic wrong. The downside to not landing a tipper isn't significant, but the upside to landing a tipper kill is very significant. Let's compare the some KO % based on the thread that was recently linked:

Ftilt vs Mario at the center of FD: 147% (tippered) 288% (non-tippered)

Ftilt vs Mario: 200%

This tells me a few things. Neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Ftilt. However, if Marth lands a tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO option at higher % (especially near the ledge). A tipper forward tilt isn't guaranteed, but Marth has an objective upside to spacing his Ftilt while Lucina does not.

Now let's take a look at some of his aerials:

Nair vs Mario: 133% (tippered) 220% (non-tippered)

Nair vs Mario: 178%

Bair vs Mario: 132% (tippered) 204% (non-tippered)

Bair vs Mario: 156%

Again, neither Marth (non-tippered) or Lucina can KO Mario at reasonable % with their Nair/Bair. However, if Marth lands his tipper, he suddenly has a potent KO move at higher % (especially near the ledge). Starting to notice a pattern? Marth's penalty for not landing a tipper isn't that big of a deal, but his gains for landing a tipper are notable. Even if these gains aren't consistent, they almost always factor into a match.

Don't believe me? Watch this match between Mr.E and Cosmos

Nearly every single on of Mr.E's KOs are from tippers. In this match, he got:

-Tipper Bair(x2)
-Tipper Fsmash
-Tipper Nair (arguably his most important one. He gets a KO on Corrin at 97%, giving him a a major lead)

And he could have potentially got an a KO from max charge Fsmash after the Shield Break.

The above is the main reason why most high level players opt for Marth over Lucina. Both characters play the same, but she doesn't have the luxury of benefiting from early KOs via tipper, and it should go without saying, but KO ability is extremely important in this game.

a few thibgs to note forst that lucina kill percents are skewed lower towards the tipper percents abd with the average lucina hit doing more damage and not requiring the spacing toll it could be similair time to kill even if marth is overall lower damage.
corrin v marth is interesting because they want to fight in a sinilair rang and marth is overall faster so he can set the space.
also you see in this game on the shield break if that was lucina that was a kill even a high level marth mis spaced on a DAZED opponent. the corrin loved a shield break at 70 on the ledge simply because it wasnt lucina. mis spacong or not if that was lucona it was an easy kill. when having these conversations remember marth has a higher mental toll and more mechanics raising the chance for errors.

 

[TTTTTsd]

Why would anyone ever not pick the character who has to space their F8 kill move of death over the character without the safe F8 kill move of death?

I personally cannot see the logic in it. She can do more damage and kill similarly on everything else all she wants but at the end of the day if she's on the ground she is committing far more to actually killing someone at a high % than Marth ever will by virtue of not having his Ftilt. I mean her aerials don't kill that well on-stage either outside of Bair from my experience but I digress.

It just snowballs down from there, tippers are great and hitting them consistently got a ****ton easier when they increased the hitbox sizes on them to 1.5 (which is MASSIVE). You're adding all of this on top of having an Ftilt that is way more busted and not hard to space at all? Sign me up!

I don't even think their power difference is minor, I think by virtue of having his Ftilt Marth is leagues safer to use competitively. I'm almost positive this game's established meta is about taking the least amount of risks to net the best reward safely (ideally), and of the two characters, Marth has an easier time doing this. I don't speak of shieldstun, I speak solely of grounded kill options, and one of these two characters has the Frame 8 one that also recovers more than 20 frames faster than FSmash and a lot faster than USmash as well.

Marth's Forward Air being able to kill on-stage near the ledge at high %s (mostly with Rage) also helps. At the end of the day building damage faster and more consistent is nice but if you can't close the stock in a safer fashion then it's ultimately less fruitful and less productive IMO.

 

[ARGHETH]

Also its funny how you brought up that vid, because every single one of those kills Mr.E got (aside from nair, which was some terribad DI), Lucina would have killed in the same situation using the same moves, not even including the fact that her overall damage output using the same moves he did would have been higher if you counted his sourspots.

For reference, his kills:
Bair: 120% at ledge
Fsmash: 93% at ledge
Bair: 140% at middle of left side
Nair: 97% at ledge
Offstage Fair followed by Cosmos misinputting a DL

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Marth's sweetspot hitboxes are placed in a position that aligns very well with his natural playstyle. It's a bonus reward for playing a matchup the correct way, a reward that Lucina can never possibly get. If you understand how much of a difference one single solid tipper kill at fraudulent percent can make in a two stock match then you can draw a pretty accurate conclusion on just how much more likely you are to win with Marth in any given moment than with Lucina. Should give you an idea about how much of a difference there is.

Hint: it's more than just one spot on the tier list.

 

[Nobie]

The way Lucina's knockback stats work, her aerials aren't that great for killing on-stage but they're monstrous for off-stage edge guarding.

 

[Bowserboy3]

In terms of killing efficiency, Marth absolutely cannot kill that well without the tip of his sword, and remember that his tipper hitboxes aren't exactly the biggest thing out there by far. You're more likely to simply hit Marth's blade than the tip, so in terms of efficiency and consistency, Lucina is able to kill earlier than Marth, since no human ever can always hit tippers with Marth in a match.

Lucina doesn't do that much damage in comparison to Marth's tipper attacks, but she at least has consistency. In all honesty, she could be better than Marth in terms of tiers since she's more in line with consistency. With Marth, you have to rely on tippers for good kills, but if you aren't confident that you'll land them, pick Lucina instead and go with her consistent hitboxes. Again, Marth can kill with tip, but if you can't hit them constantly, why are you even playing him and not Lucina?

Because, as explained before, Marth can KO off of his spacing moves/normals, and Lucina cannot. This is the single biggest reason why Marth is better than Lucina. It's all well and good having a "consistent" Forward Smash, but it's very unsafe, so it's a risky option to throw out unless you know it is going to land, or it's a safe option to do so (such as 2 framing an, or hitting on a shield break, or punishing a helpless recovery on stage).

Marth and Lucina shouldn't really ever be sturggling to KO an opponent past around 170%, as this is around the percent that Up Throw can KO. That's generally the cap on when opponents should be staying alive to.

Marth's Ftilt, Utilt, Nair and Fair, all KO well before this percent if tipped. Again, as stated before, optimal Lucina play still means she must be spacing her own sword near the tip to be safe, or it's punishable on shield. Only one of Lucina's moves KO's before Up Throw, and that's Nair, which KO's around 10-15% sooner than Up Throw. As such, Marth gets rewarded for spacing more than Lucina.

There's a reason top players play Marth and not Lucina. Potential > Consistency.

The only time I would ever see Lucina being a better choice than Marth, is in online play. Lag seriously messes with Marth's spacing game.

Off topic a moment. While Lucina's Dancing Blade deals approximately 1-2% more damage per combo, Lucina's Dancing Blade cannot pull this off - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFS59DgNvSs&t=9m33s, or this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFS59DgNvSs&t=12m9s

 

[~ Gheb ~]

It's a misconception that Lucina's non-sweetspot hits being stronger than Marth's makes her a more "consistent" character. It just means she's getting punished for poor play a bit less. The only thing Lucina is actually more consistent at than Marth though is at being bad.

 

[PK Gaming]

Firstly those results are percents for the 3DS version, and they don't or rather shouldnt be trying to kill that late in general anyway (those are uthrow kill percent numbers). Even at percents lower than that if it didn't kill, those moves would knock the opponent offstage where Lucinas aerials will kill and Marth's only with a tipper. There are pros and cons for both of them.

Also its funny how you brought up that vid, because every single one of those kills Mr.E got (aside from nair, which was some terribad DI), Lucina would have killed in the same situation using the same moves, not even including the fact that her overall damage output using the same moves he did would have been higher if you counted his sourspots.

I'm aware, but I doubt the kill % would change to a point where it would suddenly invalidate the point I was trying to make. (ie: Tipper KOs at lower % that could easily affect the outcome of a match).

I also think it's doubtful that she would have gotten all of those KOs anyway, and your assumption that Cosmos was DIng poorly seems like wishful thinking to me.

 

[ARGHETH]

I also think it's doubtful that she would have gotten all of those KOs anyway

The Bairs were at the ledge, with Cosmos at 120% (118% rage) and 140% (70% rage).
Fsmash was at the ledge at ~90% (partially charged)
The last one was a gimp.
Lucina kills at 3DS FD at those %s, so I'm pretty sure she would have killed in those situations too.

your assumption that Cosmos was DIng poorly seems like wishful thinking to me.

He barely died. If he DI'd more towards the corner, he likely would have lived.

 

[Iron Kraken]

Ahead of EVO, I decided to make a match up chart for Rosalina. I'm one of the best wifi Rosas and my I base the match up chart primarily on my experience as a Rosa main playing top players on Anther's Ladder and elsewhere, occasionally even playing top professionals. I also know Dabuz's general opinion on most match ups and take into account some of his opinion, as well as that of other Rosa mains. We'll see if Evo changes my stance on any of this.

match up chart. (Order within the tiers doesn't matter)

Significant Advantage:
Advantage:
Slight Advantage:
Even:
Slight Disadvantage:
Disadvantage:

---

I'll give my explanation for some of these:

You'll notice that sword characters () hold their own against her in general. That's because Rosa is a character that is happiest when she can zone opponents, but sword characters break right through her walls, so she is put out of her comfort zone. I explained in a previous post why I think the Rosa/Cloud match up is even (summary: that's what the results say, and Rosa can really dominate Cloud off stage). doesn't do as well because he's a rush down character, and can't poke the way some of the other sword characters do. My opinion on seems to be very different from Dabuz's, but I really Shulk's range presents a lot of problems for Rosa, and I'm also of the opinion that Shulk is underrated in general. also has some range, and Electroshock is an amazing move to kill Luma with.

is not a fun match up as a Rosa player. Pretty much all of her attacks destroy Luma. Heck, even all of her throws destroy Luma. She can go for random F-smashes and kill Luma too, so even if you block it as Rosa, it's often still a winning play for Bayo. Then there's the fact that her Nair absolutely destroys Rosa when she's off stage, and she has other tools as well. Gimping her is almost impossible which nullifies one of Rosa's best assets. Not having a kill throw really hurts in this match up, because witch time. Her neutral B is very annoying in the match up because of Rosa's height.

is almost like a sword character with his range, and his d-tilt will combo into a massive string. Kills Luma easily with moves like f-throw and fair. Dying to a grab at sub-100% is not fun.

Perhaps you wouldn't think it based on the last set ESAM and Dabuz had, but the little critter still presents some problems for Rosa. Mainly killing Luma easily, and absolutely destroying Rosa off stage.

Simply the worst, obviously. Up-air into up-b death string is still a thing Rosa has to worry about. He kills Luma easily. He edge guards Rosa easily. That's a lot to deal with. Rosa isn't *completely* helpless in the match up though. She can still control neutral against MK quite well, as long as Luma remains on the field. If the Rosa player can avoid something really bad happening (like an early up-b kill, or getting gimped), then Rosa has a good chance in the match up... but that can be easier said than done.

 

[FeelMeUp]

You think Diddy does better than Sheik at the MU? What?

 

[dakotaisgreat]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFQ2o8xOj7U

Ok, I looked through the first two games of this video. Only the first two games because I got bored afterwards. These are the results. T means tipper, if I just wrote fair then it means it was an untippered fair.

Marth% - Lucina%

Dancing Blade 1: 3 - 3.325
T Fair: 15 - 13.825
T Dancing Blade 1: 19 - 17.15
D throw: 23 - 21.15
T Fair : 35 - 31.65
Fair : 43 - 42.15
D throw: 48 -47.15
T bair : 61 - 58.95
T dolphin slash: 72 - 69.95
Dair, meteor : 88 -84.15
Fsmash : 102 -99.15
Fair : 109 -109.65
T dolphin slash : 120 -120.65
T bair (Kill) : 132 -132.45

Game 2

Fair : 8 - 10.5
d throw : 12 - 14.5
T fair : 23 - 25
Fair : 33 - 35.5
T bair : 46 - 47.3
Fair : 52 - 57.8
Nair 2 : 59 - 66.3
Fair : 68 - 76.8
Dancing Blade 1: 71 -80.125
Fair : 80 - 90.625
Nair 2 : 87 -99.125
Pml D throw: 93 -104.125
T chrgd Fsmash: 115 -123.125 (This Fsmash was charged enough for 4% to be added onto it, so I assume Lucina's would have done an extra 4% as well if charged for the same time.)

Stock 2 of Game 2

Dancing Blade : 2,3,3,4(12)- 16.625
Fair : 20 -27.125
T Bair : 33 -38.925
Fair :40 -49.425
Full shieldbreaker :63 -72.425
Offscreen damage :64 -73.425
Pummel D throw :71 -80.425
T Nair 1 : 76 - 84.625
Dair (meteor) : 92 -98.825
Nair 1 :95 -103.025
T bair : 109 -114.825
Up air :122 -126.225
Offscreen damage: 123 - 127.225
Bair :132 -138.025
Fair :140 - 148.525
Bair :151 -160.325

For these particular games, I don't think the character changed anything. Everything that killed would have also killed with Lucina. In all 3 of the stocks Mr. E took, Lucina would have outdamaged Marth. Also when doing this I noticed some of the stuff on Kuroganehammer has to just be wrong. I didn't write down specific examples, but off the top of my head, on stock 2 of the second game, when Marth started off with a dancing blade, his site doesn't show it as being possible to do 2, 3, 3, and 4 damage from Dancing Blade. There was a good amount of other stuff like that, but I didn't make notes of when or where it was.

I know I have basically a non existent sample size of only these two games, but if Mr. E always played like this he would actually do better if he was Lucina. He isn't getting early kills due to the tipper and he isn't hitting enough tippers to outdamage Lucina.

Again, I am not using a sample size of two games from one player to make any sort of statement about tiers, this was just meant to be interesting.

 

[Iron Kraken]

You think Diddy does better than Sheik at the MU? What?

I actually meant to have Diddy and Sheik right next to each other, whoops. I fixed that. Although in terms of results, there is an argument to be made for the fact that Diddy does better against Rosa than Sheik does.

 

[adom4]

Iron Kraken What do you think about being in "advantage"?
I'm not really confident in it myself he belongs there but i do feel he might have it the least bad out of the superheavies lol.

 

[Iron Kraken]

adom4 you are my main experience vs, and while our games are always even, I do feel like that's the result of you just being really good. I was on the fence about where to put him, but I put him there because he gets juggled super hard and he gets gimped super hard while also clearly losing the neutral. He's not hopeless in the match up of course - he edge guards Rosa himself, can kill Luma easily enough, and just needs one good read to kill Rosa. But when I think about the match up, I just feel that the tools are overwhelmingly in Rosa's favor. Hardly un-winnable, but each game is an uphill battle.

 

[Wintermelon43]

Ahead of EVO, I decided to make a match up chart for Rosalina. I'm one of the best wifi Rosas and my I base the match up chart primarily on my experience as a Rosa main playing top players on Anther's Ladder and elsewhere, occasionally even playing top professionals. I also know Dabuz's general opinion on most match ups and take into account some of his opinion, as well as that of other Rosa mains. We'll see if Evo changes my stance on any of this.

match up chart. (Order within the tiers doesn't matter)

Significant Advantage:
Advantage:
Slight Advantage:
Even:
Slight Disadvantage:
Disadvantage:

---

I'll give my explanation for some of these:

You'll notice that sword characters () hold their own against her in general. That's because Rosa is a character that is happiest when she can zone opponents, but sword characters break right through her walls, so she is put out of her comfort zone. I explained in a previous post why I think the Rosa/Cloud match up is even (summary: that's what the results say, and Rosa can really dominate Cloud off stage). doesn't do as well because he's a rush down character, and can't poke the way some of the other sword characters do. My opinion on seems to be very different from Dabuz's, but I really Shulk's range presents a lot of problems for Rosa, and I'm also of the opinion that Shulk is underrated in general. also has some range, and Electroshock is an amazing move to kill Luma with.

is not a fun match up as a Rosa player. Pretty much all of her attacks destroy Luma. Heck, even all of her throws destroy Luma. She can go for random F-smashes and kill Luma too, so even if you block it as Rosa, it's often still a winning play for Bayo. Then there's the fact that her Nair absolutely destroys Rosa when she's off stage, and she has other tools as well. Gimping her is almost impossible which nullifies one of Rosa's best assets. Not having a kill throw really hurts in this match up, because witch time. Her neutral B is very annoying in the match up because of Rosa's height.

is almost like a sword character with his range, and his d-tilt will combo into a massive string. Kills Luma easily with moves like f-throw and fair. Dying to a grab at sub-100% is not fun.

Perhaps you wouldn't think it based on the last set ESAM and Dabuz had, but the little critter still presents some problems for Rosa. Mainly killing Luma easily, and absolutely destroying Rosa off stage.

Simply the worst, obviously. Up-air into up-b death string is still a thing Rosa has to worry about. He kills Luma easily. He edge guards Rosa easily. That's a lot to deal with. Rosa isn't *completely* helpless in the match up though. She can still control neutral against MK quite well, as long as Luma remains on the field. If the Rosa player can avoid something really bad happening (like an early up-b kill, or getting gimped), then Rosa has a good chance in the match up... but that can be easier said than done.

This seems pretty weird.........

For one thing, Pikachu is probably even, maybe even slightly in Rosa's favor tbh. Pikachu in terms of results has always done poor aganist Rosa, and theortictially it doesn't seem the best too, seems about even in that regard.

Kirby is probably only a normal advantage, it's bad but not terribly bad. Kirby has some advantages, such as that he can gimp her (Well rosa can too but still), and Rosa become easy to kill when she loses her luma, and etc.

Pac-Man is generally considered to be about even since counterplay for Rosa's GP has been found using his offensive moves such as his aierals, and gravitional pull can be ounished by other moves too. Duck Hunt has the same thing, but it is still considered a slight disadvantage (For Duck Hunt, not Rosa) by most.

Also you forgot Jigglypuff

 

[blackghost]

Ahead of EVO, I decided to make a match up chart for Rosalina. I'm one of the best wifi Rosas and my I base the match up chart primarily on my experience as a Rosa main playing top players on Anther's Ladder and elsewhere, occasionally even playing top professionals. I also know Dabuz's general opinion on most match ups and take into account some of his opinion, as well as that of other Rosa mains. We'll see if Evo changes my stance on any of this.


Slight Disadvantage:


---

I'll give my explanation for some of these:


is not a fun match up as a Rosa player. Pretty much all of her attacks destroy Luma. Heck, even all of her throws destroy Luma. She can go for random F-smashes and kill Luma too, so even if you block it as Rosa, it's often still a winning play for Bayo. Then there's the fact that her Nair absolutely destroys Rosa when she's off stage, and she has other tools as well. Gimping her is almost impossible which nullifies one of Rosa's best assets. Not having a kill throw really hurts in this match up, because witch time. Her neutral B is very annoying in the match up because of Rosa's height.

.

wait how come bayo is a disadvantage? bayo and rosa players now claiming its not in thier favor? ok someone is wrong here. i dont see how bayo is supposed to get past a defensive rosa at all. also luma isnt slowed in witch time she is recalled to rosa at the same speed and is still a walking hitbox even if rosa is slow.
bayo cannot zone rosa either. rosa sees guns and absorbs for free.
off stage its bad for rosa but thats on paper rosa doesnt get gimped a lot when i watch her play. and rosa can challenge bayo nair with upair (with or without luma) offstage. bayo nair loses every time.
and bayo shouldn't be grabbing anyone that much her grab range is really bad.
i cant recall dabuz losing to any bayo post patch.

 

[Das Koopa]

abridged version of Pools Analysis since I quit trying to make paragraphs about halfway through

also I'm never doing this again for tournies this big i wasted hours

"<Free>" Indicates that the pool has no players I recognize, any of whom will likely go 0-2 in Pool G. Parenthesis are for players who'll likely qualify for the Loser's Side of Pool G, but not many are guessed.

Few pools are interesting outside of one that has Ally, JK, LinkedKnight, and Soulimar grouped together.

Spoiler: Pool A

A501: ZeRo (Toronto Joe)
A502: GimR (Reslived)
A503: <Free>
A504: Demitus (Average Joe)
A505: True Blue
A506: Zenyou (Felix)
A507: DC (Ruff!)
A508: Saiki (SpankyJ)
A509: Salem
A510: Trevonte
A511: Mr. E
A512: Chibo (Melonz)
A513: Vinnie
A514: Ven
A515: SoCalGohan
A516: MVD (Not Last)
A517: Hyuga (SETHsational)
A518: SM
A519: <Free>
A520: Kirihara (Techei)
A521: Aarvark
A522: DarkShad
A523: <Free>
A524: ChuDat (Nintendude)
A525: Zinoto (1738)
A526: Ahrpo (PikaPawnch)
A527: Nyanko (Moti)
A528: Absol

Spoiler: Pool B

B501: Tyrant (Draquaza)
B502: Turtles
B503: DSS (Depunked)
B504: Regi (Wii Twerk Trainer)
B505: gsmVoiD
B506: <Free>
B507: <Free>
B508: Elegant
B509: Marathon
B510: Prodigy (HeRo)
B511: Saj
B512: TLTC
B513: KEN (gsmWAR)
B514: Sol
B515: Bladewise (gsmRush)
B516: GiGa Blitz
B517: ESAM
B518: 2ManyCooks
B519: Luisfer
B520: Ito
B521: Mr. R
B522: Jester (Big_mak)
B523: Charlidaking (Dexter)
B524: SD_God
B525: Seagull Joe
B526: Calculus
B527: Zan The Man
B528: False

Spoiler: Pool C

C501: Kamemushi (Ikez)
C502: VonSilvermoon
C503: Vash (Rollo)
C504: Naoto
C505: K9sbruce
C506: <Free>
C507: Shaky (Sorry)
C508: <Free>
C509: Mew2King (Raziek)
C510: Pugwest
C511: Ksev (Amazing Ampharos)
C512: Z
C513: Earth (Hackoru)
C514: Karna
C515: GGA.Dan
C516: Cyve
C517: Tweek
C518: Kiraflax (Warchamp)
C519: Locke
C520: 9B
C521: Xaltis
C522: Mister Eric
C523: Tearbear
C524: Shel
C525: ANTi
C526: Tremendo Dude
C527: Shimitake
C528: Gunvolt

Spoiler: Pool D

D501: Pink Fresh
D502: Max Ketchum
D503: SS
D504: S2H
D505: Dabuz (Wobbie)
D506: <Free>
D507: Mr. ConCon (RCS_JR)
D508: <Free>
D509: CaptAwesum (Ryuk)
D510: KJ (AeroLink)
D511: 3xA
D512: Triple R
D513: FOW
D514: Bravo
D515: Tyroy (Detta)
D516: MK Iori
D517: Luck
D518: Kei (Rich Brown)
D519: Waymas (Sofa King)
D520: Legit (Bloodcross)
D521: Komorikiri
D522: Raito
D523: <Free>
D524: Ned
D525: IC (FedvsRafa)
D526: NAKAT
D527: Dandy Penguin
D528: Jtails (Dank)

Spoiler: Pool E

E501: Ally (JK)
E502: Zephyr
E503: Angel Cortes (Das)
E504: <Free>
E505: DKWill
E506: Lycan
E507: C3PO (StylesX2)
E508: Nietono (PR Seren)
E509: Cacogen (Dyr)
E510: NickRiddle
E511: Eddy
E512: Angbad
E513: ZekkenB
E514: Marss
E515: Jaaahsh
E516: NCJacobT (Miiself)
E517: Nairo
E518: DJ Jack
E519: ImHip (NSM Nika)
E520: YOC (Chozo)
E521: Edgar
E522: ROM
E523: Falln (October Scream)
E524: HIKARU (PewPewU)
E525: <Free>
E526: Logic (JWest)
E527: K0rean (Liquid Ken)
E528: Trela

Spoiler: Pool F

F501: Mekos
F502: Zex
F503: SL Dragon
F504: Wrath (Keitaro)
F505: Ranai
F506: Locus
F507: Xzax
F508: Zombe
F509: Wizzrobe
F510: Captain L (Bizzaro Flame)
F511: Dren
F512: Day (Marshall)
F513: Larry Lurr (AceStartheThird)
F514: JJROCKETS
F515: Miloni
F516: RAIN
F517: Nite (Shofu)
F518: GrimTurtle
F519: Pollo (Fahrenheit)
F520: iiGGY (Manondorf)
F521: Abadango
F522: Nicko
F523: Chiroz
F524: <Free>
F525: 6WX
F526: Hungrybox
F527: WiiGi
F528: The Wall

 

[Iron Kraken]

This seems pretty weird.........

For one thing, Pikachu is probably even, maybe even slightly in Rosa's favor tbh. Pikachu in terms of results has always done poor aganist Rosa, and theortictially it doesn't seem the best too, seems about even in that regard.

Kirby is probably only a normal advantage, it's bad but not terribly bad. Kirby has some advantages, such as that he can gimp her (Well rosa can too but still), and Rosa become easy to kill when she loses her luma, and etc.

Pac-Man is generally considered to be about even since counterplay for Rosa's GP has been found using his offensive moves such as his aierals, and gravitional pull can be ounished by other moves too. Duck Hunt has the same thing, but it is still considered a slight disadvantage (For Duck Hunt, not Rosa) by most.

Also you forgot Jigglypuff

I agree that the match up is pretty close. I'm not sure where you're getting that Pikachu has always been poor in terms of results vs Rosa though.

I think Rosa has a significant advantage over because Kirby has no real way to get in on Rosa. On the ground Rosa can out space Kirby with things like star bits and d-tilt. And Kirby doesn't want to go above Rosa, because being above Rosa is really bad. Kirby just doesn't have the speed, mobility, or range to contend with Rosa very well.

can be annoying for Rosa like everyone else, but gravitational pull is a huge asset as long as the Rosa uses it intelligently, Rosa juggles him really well, and Rosa can gimp him really well. If Rosa can do all that in a match up, it's generally a very good match up for her. FWIW I'm even in games with Zage online, even though Zage is better than me and Pac-Man should have even more of an advantage online than offline.

Forgot about , but I hadn't intended to forget about her. I put her in the Advantage column.

 

[Iron Kraken]

wait how come bayo is a disadvantage? bayo and rosa players now claiming its not in thier favor? ok someone is wrong here. i dont see how bayo is supposed to get past a defensive rosa at all. also luma isnt slowed in witch time she is recalled to rosa at the same speed and is still a walking hitbox even if rosa is slow.
bayo cannot zone rosa either. rosa sees guns and absorbs for free.
off stage its bad for rosa but thats on paper rosa doesnt get gimped a lot when i watch her play. and rosa can challenge bayo nair with upair (with or without luma) offstage. bayo nair loses every time.
and bayo shouldn't be grabbing anyone that much her grab range is really bad.
i cant recall dabuz losing to any bayo post patch.

I've had a tough time with the match up myself. And recently I watched Dabuz play a Bayo on his stream for a couple of hours (Captain Zack) and they went dead even over the course of many games. Dabuz himself said he hates the match up and thinks it's slightly in Bayo's favor. That solidified my own opinion of the match up.

 

[PK Gaming]

The Bairs were at the ledge, with Cosmos at 120% (118% rage) and 140% (70% rage).
Fsmash was at the ledge at ~90% (partially charged)
The last one was a gimp.
Lucina kills at 3DS FD at those %s, so I'm pretty sure she would have killed in those situations too.

In retrospect, those were poor examples. That said, it...

He barely died. If he DI'd more towards the corner, he likely would have lived.

...still doesn't change anything. Marth's tipper Nair kills significantly earlier than Lucina's, and it's one of their best normals. tipper Ftilt is still KOing significantly earlier, tipper Bair is still KOing 10-20% earlier, etc.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

I'm aware, but I doubt the kill % would change to a point where it would suddenly invalidate the point I was trying to make. (ie: Tipper KOs at lower % that could easily affect the outcome of a match).

I also think it's doubtful that she would have gotten all of those KOs anyway, and your assumption that Cosmos was DIng poorly seems like wishful thinking to me.

How much difference in kill percents is there between the 3DS version and Wii U version on FD anyway? I only have the 3DS version so I can't check.

But from what I've seen/heard, in terms of vertical KOs the difference is only like 3-5 percent.

I don't know if the side blastzones are also slightly bigger on the 3DS on FD...

 

[Djent]

From Das Koopa 's post, I gather that the really good stuff doesn't even start until 11:00 p.m. EST.

For anyone who's interested, Shulla-bra VI (~70 entrants) should also be streamed around that time. It'll have a few good players who won't be at EVO:

Spoiler: Players

Kie
Ri-ma
FILIP
Takera
HIDE
kShin

 

[ARGHETH]

Also when doing this I noticed some of the stuff on Kuroganehammer has to just be wrong. I didn't write down specific examples, but off the top of my head, on stock 2 of the second game, when Marth started off with a dancing blade, his site doesn't show it as being possible to do 2, 3, 3, and 4 damage from Dancing Blade. There was a good amount of other stuff like that, but I didn't make notes of when or where it was.

Probably stale move stuff. IDK how DB stales, but if each hit stales the entire move, then the percents would show up as 2, 5, 8, and 12, though the moves themselves wouldn't be doing 2, 3, 3, 4. (I got ~2.84, 2.64, 3.25, 3.77)

 

[JustSomeScrub]

Is it actually possible to SDI completely out of Sheik's up air? It was discussed a while back in this thread.

Sheik struggles at killing as it is. If people did this consistently, arguably her only move that potentially kills at decent percents onstage would be taken away. In fact there would be little reason to air dodge verses her at all (as none of her other aerial moves can kill at reasonable percents onstage).

But I'm assuming it's not actually possible despite the move being multiple hits as no one does it and given how common of a tournament thread she is, I can't imagine why.

 

[FeelMeUp]

bouncing fish and uair both catch jumps, so I don't know where you'd get the conclusion that you just shouldn't airdodge.
I've never seen someone fall out of Uair aside from absurd 150+ %, though.
and I'm a Sheik main.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

bouncing fish and uair both catch jumps, so I don't know where you'd get the conclusion that you just shouldn't airdodge.
I've never seen someone fall out of Uair aside from absurd 150+ %, though.
and I'm a Sheik main.

I'm suggesting that if there is a way to SDI out of uair at a human level THEN and only then there's no reason to air dodge while near centre stage versus Sheik (as none of her other aerials including bouncing fish will kill until 180+).

Granted I guess you could air dodge and then still SDI the uair. But then you give Sheik the chance to do a tipperd up smash or something (if you are low enough after the air dodge for it or if there is a platform).

Also regarding kill confirms, how reliable is Diddy's downtilt-usmash if the opponent DIs down and away? Does it still combo into up Smash at kill percents? Now obviously downtilt is far too fast to reaction DI, but if you know it's coming (you just did something punishable or got hit by a banana) this seems like a great idea if it works.

 

[Thinkaman]

I'm going to be a contrarian (shocking I know) and just point out that in the universe where Marth and Lucina were exactly even in strength, everyone would still be idolizing perfect gameplay of perfect tippers and be convinced that Marth was superior. (This would be reflected in results too, since no one would play Lucina.)

 

[Illuminose]

abridged version of Pools Analysis since I quit trying to make paragraphs about halfway through

also I'm never doing this again for tournies this big i wasted hours

"<Free>" Indicates that the pool has no players I recognize, any of whom will likely go 0-2 in Pool G. Parenthesis are for players who'll likely qualify for the Loser's Side of Pool G, but not many are guessed.

Few pools are interesting outside of one that has Ally, JK, LinkedKnight, and Soulimar grouped together.

Spoiler: Pool A

A501: ZeRo (Toronto Joe)
A502: GimR (Reslived)
A503: <Free>
A504: Demitus (Average Joe)
A505: True Blue
A506: Zenyou (Felix)
A507: DC (Ruff!)
A508: Saiki (SpankyJ)
A509: Salem
A510: Trevonte
A511: Mr. E
A512: Chibo (Melonz)
A513: Vinnie
A514: Ven
A515: SoCalGohan
A516: MVD (Not Last)
A517: Hyuga (SETHsational)
A518: SM
A519: <Free>
A520: Kirihara (Techei)
A521: Aarvark
A522: DarkShad
A523: <Free>
A524: ChuDat (Nintendude)
A525: Zinoto (1738)
A526: Ahrpo (PikaPawnch)
A527: Nyanko (Moti)
A528: Absol

Spoiler: Pool B

B501: Tyrant (Draquaza)
B502: Turtles
B503: DSS (Depunked)
B504: Regi (Wii Twerk Trainer)
B505: gsmVoiD
B506: <Free>
B507: <Free>
B508: Elegant
B509: Marathon
B510: Prodigy (HeRo)
B511: Saj
B512: TLTC
B513: KEN (gsmWAR)
B514: Sol
B515: Bladewise (gsmRush)
B516: GiGa Blitz
B517: ESAM
B518: 2ManyCooks
B519: Luisfer
B520: Ito
B521: Mr. R
B522: Jester (Big_mak)
B523: Charlidaking (Dexter)
B524: SD_God
B525: Seagull Joe
B526: Calculus
B527: Zan The Man
B528: False

Spoiler: Pool C

C501: Kamemushi (Ikez)
C502: VonSilvermoon
C503: Vash (Rollo)
C504: Naoto
C505: K9sbruce
C506: <Free>
C507: Shaky (Sorry)
C508: <Free>
C509: Mew2King (Raziek)
C510: Pugwest
C511: Ksev (Amazing Ampharos)
C512: Z
C513: Earth (Hackoru)
C514: Karna
C515: GGA.Dan
C516: Cyve
C517: Tweek
C518: Kiraflax (Warchamp)
C519: Locke
C520: 9B
C521: Xaltis
C522: Mister Eric
C523: Tearbear
C524: Shel
C525: ANTi
C526: Tremendo Dude
C527: Shimitake
C528: Gunvolt

Spoiler: Pool D

D501: Pink Fresh
D502: Max Ketchum
D503: SS
D504: S2H
D505: Dabuz (Wobbie)
D506: <Free>
D507: Mr. ConCon (RCS_JR)
D508: <Free>
D509: CaptAwesum (Ryuk)
D510: KJ (AeroLink)
D511: 3xA
D512: Triple R
D513: FOW
D514: Bravo
D515: Tyroy (Detta)
D516: MK Iori
D517: Luck
D518: Kei (Rich Brown)
D519: Waymas (Sofa King)
D520: Legit (Bloodcross)
D521: Komorikiri
D522: Raito
D523: <Free>
D524: Ned
D525: IC (FedvsRafa)
D526: NAKAT
D527: Dandy Penguin
D528: Jtails (Dank)

Spoiler: Pool E

E501: Ally (JK)
E502: Zephyr
E503: Angel Cortes (Das)
E504: <Free>
E505: DKWill
E506: Lycan
E507: C3PO (StylesX2)
E508: Nietono (PR Seren)
E509: Cacogen (Dyr)
E510: NickRiddle
E511: Eddy
E512: Angbad
E513: ZekkenB
E514: Marss
E515: Jaaahsh
E516: NCJacobT (Miiself)
E517: Nairo
E518: DJ Jack
E519: ImHip (NSM Nika)
E520: YOC (Chozo)
E521: Edgar
E522: ROM
E523: Falln (October Scream)
E524: HIKARU (PewPewU)
E525: <Free>
E526: Logic (JWest)
E527: K0rean (Liquid Ken)
E528: Trela

Spoiler: Pool F

F501: Mekos
F502: Zex
F503: SL Dragon
F504: Wrath (Keitaro)
F505: Ranai
F506: Locus
F507: Xzax
F508: Zombe
F509: Wizzrobe
F510: Captain L (Bizzaro Flame)
F511: Dren
F512: Day (Marshall)
F513: Larry Lurr (AceStartheThird)
F514: JJROCKETS
F515: Miloni
F516: RAIN
F517: Nite (Shofu)
F518: GrimTurtle
F519: Pollo (Fahrenheit)
F520: iiGGY (Manondorf)
F521: Abadango
F522: Nicko
F523: Chiroz
F524: <Free>
F525: 6WX
F526: Hungrybox
F527: WiiGi
F528: The Wall

already had a spreadsheet of this so corrections bc why not

Spoiler

- A506: Hitaku (1 seed)
- A519: Cyberman65 (1 seed)
- A528: 2Quik (2 seed)
- B503: MJG (1 seed)
- B509: Hino (1 seed)
- B517: NickC (2 seed)
- B518: Kesa (1 seed)
- B522: Poltergust (1 or 2 seed idk)
- B527: Pitbull (1 seed)
- B528: Bsquared (2 seed)
- C504: Xiivi (2 seed)
- C508: Day (from Ohio, 1 seed) and Charger (2 seed)
- C510: el (2 seed)
- C527: Phoenix (2 seed)
- C528: Dath (1 seed)
- D502: Click (2 seed)
- D503: Johan (2 seed)
- D508: Haruki (1 seed)
- D509: Ryuk>CaptAwesum
- D512: Warchief (2 seed)
- D514: ViceGrip (1 seed)
- D516: BC (2 seed)
- D517: Luck (1 seed)
- D521: Lythero (2 seed)
- D522: DYNAMO (2 seed)
- D523: Lethal Trilogy (1 seed)
- D524: Owsla (2 seed)
- D528: Shippo (2 seed)
- E503: Saturn (2 seed)
- E504: Duffo (1 seed)
- E506: Kentarosu (2 seed)
- E509: Cacogen isn't going
- E513: BAM (2 seed)
- E515: Sinji (1 seed)
- E517: AC (2 seed)
- E520: YOC isn't going
- E522: Rom isn't going
- E526: JWest>Logic
- F510: Camalange (2 seed)
- F517: Lucky7 (2 seed)
- F519: ProBeans (1 seed)
- F524: Soronie (2 seed)

 

[Yoshister]

I'm going to be a contrarian (shocking I know) and just point out that in the universe where Marth and Lucina were exactly even in strength, everyone would still be idolizing perfect gameplay of perfect tippers and be convinced that Marth was superior. (This would be reflected in results too, since no one would play Lucina.)

"exactly even in strength"
What do you mean by this?

 

[FeelMeUp]

Speaking of Sheik:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1PO1t1BQYI&feature=youtu.be
The general rule of thumb is that you should keep playing neutral and let your kills come for you, but postpatch Sheik's confirms don't always do that, as her damage racks up faster than the kill confirms can come(blame needles, godlike neutral and ledge traps for this).
Going forward I think more Sheik players should start practically spamming bair/ftilt/dtilt and nair crossups around 110-120.

 

[PK Gaming]

I'm going to be a contrarian (shocking I know) and just point out that in the universe where Marth and Lucina were exactly even in strength, everyone would still be idolizing perfect gameplay of perfect tippers and be convinced that Marth was superior. (This would be reflected in results too, since no one would play Lucina.)

Back before the buffs, they were more or less on par with each other

So this is pretty accurate, lol

 

[Das Koopa]

already had a spreadsheet of this so corrections bc why not

Spoiler

- A506: Hitaku (1 seed)
- A519: Cyberman65 (1 seed)
- A528: 2Quik (2 seed)
- B503: MJG (1 seed)
- B509: Hino (1 seed)
- B517: NickC (2 seed)
- B518: Kesa (1 seed)
- B522: Poltergust (1 or 2 seed idk)
- B527: Pitbull (1 seed)
- B528: Bsquared (2 seed)
- C504: Xiivi (2 seed)
- C508: Day (from Ohio, 1 seed) and Charger (2 seed)
- C510: el (2 seed)
- C527: Phoenix (2 seed)
- C528: Dath (1 seed)
- D502: Click (2 seed)
- D503: Johan (2 seed)
- D508: Haruki (1 seed)
- D509: Ryuk>CaptAwesum
- D512: Warchief (2 seed)
- D514: ViceGrip (1 seed)
- D516: BC (2 seed)
- D517: Luck (1 seed)
- D521: Lythero (2 seed)
- D522: DYNAMO (2 seed)
- D523: Lethal Trilogy (1 seed)
- D524: Owsla (2 seed)
- D528: Shippo (2 seed)
- E503: Saturn (2 seed)
- E504: Duffo (1 seed)
- E506: Kentarosu (2 seed)
- E509: Cacogen isn't going
- E513: BAM (2 seed)
- E515: Sinji (1 seed)
- E517: AC (2 seed)
- E520: YOC isn't going
- E522: Rom isn't going
- E526: JWest>Logic
- F510: Camalange (2 seed)
- F517: Lucky7 (2 seed)
- F519: ProBeans (1 seed)
- F524: Soronie (2 seed)

I believe MJG said he won't be able to attend EVO. I may be wrong on this though

(I was informed of Cacogen's absence on Gfaqs )

Also, are you sure about Johan as the second seed? It's not the Oklahoma Johan that posts here.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

Speaking of Sheik:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1PO1t1BQYI&feature=youtu.be
The general rule of thumb is that you should keep playing neutral and let your kills come for you, but postpatch Sheik's confirms don't always do that, as her damage racks up faster than the kill confirms can come(blame needles, godlike neutral and ledge traps for this).
Going forward I think more Sheik players should start practically spamming bair/ftilt/dtilt and nair crossups around 110-120.

Good video, one thing I noticed:

Ledge trump bair with Sheik won't kill nearly that early without significant rage, he just did it on another Sheik who happens to be lighter than most characters. Also that stage's side boundaries seem rather small. It might be because I'm on 3DS but I tested the ledge trump bair vs CPU Sheik on FD and it doesn't seem to kill until around 140ish.

And of course, they can buffer ledge options and then it will never work, but it's a good mixup if you notice they are hanging on too long or are using options you can't buffer (like regular getup).

The problem with constant late/weak nairs/bairs is they are very risky against Smash attacks (if your opponent loves to throw them out) and Sheik given how light she is is not ideal for risky play. That might be why top Sheiks don't just start throwing them out at kill percentage. Also again, he's showing them killing on another Sheik, on middleweights it wouldn't kill that early if at all (they might be out of range of the combo once it would start killing onstage).

Spaced Ftilt is probably Sheik's best "kill confirm" now (even though it's a 50/50).

 

[Emblem Lord]

So like...yall know Lucina has a consistent fairly safe kill confirm right?

SH Nair before touching the ground > f-smash.

With tilt stick you can SH then fast fall it making her SH game scarier and this option harder to react too. And since its off a nair, its pretty darn safe on block and even on whiff. At low percents, it's an easy confirm into Dancing Blade.

Marth doesn't have this. Well he does, but it won't kill as early.

So yea....discuss.

Noobs talking about Lucina and havent even tapped her powers as a child of Anri's bloodline. smh

 

[JustSomeScrub]

So like...yall know Lucina has a consistent fairly safe kill confirm right?

SH Nair before touching the ground > f-smash.

With tilt stick you can SH then fast fall it making her SH game scarier and this option harder to react too. And since its off a nair, its pretty darn safe on block and even on whiff. At low percents, it's an easy confirm into Dancing Blade.

Marth doesn't have this. Well he does, but it won't kill as early.

So yea....discuss.

Noobs talking about Lucina and havent even tapped her powers as a child of Anri's bloodline. smh

Interesting. How safe is her falling nair on block exactly? Is it safe from everything or can fast OOS options punish it? I guess in terms of risk/reward, if they can only punish it with jabs/grab (and can't kill off these) it might still be a great option.

I'm a bit confused on why a tilt stick helps with this though. I don't have a problem doing fast fall SH nairs without one and I imagine most people are the same.

 

[Illuminose]

I believe MJG said he won't be able to attend EVO. I may be wrong on this though

(I was informed of Cacogen's absence on Gfaqs )

Also, are you sure about Johan as the second seed? It's not the Oklahoma Johan that posts here.

you are correct on both accounts

 

[Emblem Lord]

Tilt stick lets you nair with the c stick and thus lets several chars do SHFF nairs into kill confirms similar to Greninja and ZSS.

It makes the set up WAY less obvious and opens the door for more mix-ups. On block Lucina first hit nair is -1 when done perfectly. But even imperfectly it prolly would be around -3. You are not punishing that. No one is. With no shield drop its -8 but with proper spacing she is still gonna be pretty safe.

Lucina is not the only one who gains from "Perfect Nair"

Anyone wanna guess who I labbed this tech for originally?

Also I'm a liar. Marth gets a Dancing Blade confirm which is easier to do since he has more time as DB is faster then an f-smash. Tipper DB kills really well. So yeah Marth gets a solid confirm as well.

Point is they both still have tech. Alot of chars still have tech.