Was listing my top 20 some days ago because reasons, and in terms of ordering, 1-4 was easy and felt clear enough (Sheik, ZSS, Rosalina, Sonic), 5-10 I surprisingly felt pretty similarly about (Mario, Diddy, Ryu, Ness, Pikachu, Fox), 11-17 is a bit difficult (MK, Villager, Falcon, Wario, Luigi, Yoshi, Ike) and same with 18-2X (Lucario, ROB, Pit
s, Peach, Olimar, Greninja, Pac-Man, DK, Mega Man, Lucas). Might as well call the categories something like A1, A2, B1 and B2 respectively. I do feel pretty good about where I'd place those gaps, and I think viability (to realistically place well at majors) stops after these by at least the current outlook. Prettier icon version:
A1:
A2:
B1:
B2:
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Short explanations for cases that may not be super obvious:
Rosalina is clearly A1 because of her consistent results in both west and Japan and with Luma walling everything and preventing you from going for certain options because of interruption, and I think we've had plenty of time to see now that Rosalina doesn't have that much trouble waiting for the Luma respawns, but if she does get caught chances are the next Luma dies pretty quickly too. Plenty of really good moves and strong kill options. Sonic is probably A1 as well just because of how effectively he can control the pace of the match and how well he can threaten midrange and punish stuff like landings with his speed. Spring also lets him get out of a lot of stuff for free while also giving him the ability to edgeguard some characters without risk.
I still don't see anything special about Pikachu compared to the other characters he's in with, while Ness still has stronger showing and also arguably stronger tools than both Pikachu and Fox. I still think Ryu has to rely too much on landing SRK or dair with too tough of a time doing it on some characters to be really amazing, even if the moves and setups are as "dumb" as anything ZSS and MK have. Mario and Diddy have shown things more consistently than the others and are arguably more developed as well due to certain players using them.
MK barely falls to B1 because, despite the potential of his early kill setups, I think he has to rely too much on them to be quite reliable enough and make the cut. Luigi is somewhat uncertain because I haven't yet had the opportunity to completely experience how much his kill potential suffered, although I see it being Mario level at the moment. I think Yoshi is still largely a case of lacking representation, while Ike almost has too much of it.
Lucario is to B2 tier what ZSS is to A1 or what MK and Wario are to B1. Clutch factor and some good tools to get it done hold him above a certain placing for the foreseeable future. B2 is also full of characters who are clearly good but apparently not good enough to get any considerable results at least often enough (i.e. more than once by now). Pit would probably be called top 10 if Nairo used him exclusively, just seems like a really solid character overall, he simply lacks any particularly reliable kill options. Wish ZSS had his dash attack though, Pit's is just an objectively better version of that (unless the ZSS decides to use dash attacks instead of grabs to punish landings).
A bit uncertain of Mega Man and Lucas but the former sort of reminded people of his existence at MLG and the latter has surprisingly good hitboxes and frame data (in the form of endlag), plus like 5 actually strong kill throws. I think Lucas would be one of the characters people immediately called high tier if someone really good mained him. Wanted to make this much shorter but oh well ****