YOU ARE NOW IN THE THEORYCRAFT ZONE!
(j/k you were here the whole time)
Fireball is a big winner today, and nair can potentially be safe on block in ideal timings? Landing dair is going to be less punishable on block. Wonder how Scalding Fludd is affected in all this.
Luigi's Fireball loves this, obviously. On the defensive side, because of his friction, Luigi doesn't actually lose out of much from this--he was already failing to punish tons of stuff OoS, nothing new here. News of Luigi's death has been greatly exaggerated.
How could a character who spends her time floating, pressuring shields, and using projectiles not be one of the biggest winners from these changes?
Mixed bag, hardest character to predict imo. On one hand, wow Bowser's already limited defensive options seem crippled to oblivion. On the other, he really didn't have a potent OoS game in Smash 4 anyway. Furthermore, Bowser is one of the characters most well-equipped to break shields. (and then punish) D-tilt is now a block-string and does more than half a shield! If Dash Claw is in the mix (it has crazy scary blockstrings now), Bowser is pretty clearly a winner here.
Look, we know Dair is now absurdly scary, but the added safety on fair, bair, and even landing nair (often safe on block?) can't be overlooked. Yoshi, like Mario, is definitely going to benefit a lot.
TBD. Hard to analyze, but a lot of data points suggest Rosalina being a big winner. Tons of blockstrings enabled by Luma (in theory), and Rosalina already liked sheilding less than most characters. We'll see.
One of the biggest winners, though it's subtle. The extra safety looks like it's a tipping point on his smashes, AC aerials, and landing dair, plus Mechakoopas and fair landing hitbox being better are nice. As for OoS options being worse, who cares? You're Bowser Jr.
No idea, but I don't see him as one of the biggest winners compared to what other people are getting, from Bowser Jr. to Pikachu. Probably hurt overall.
Unlike Bowser, I'm not sure if DK gets any meaningful shield threat out of this. Like okay, maybe Kong Cyclong is better on block, great. Added block safety on bair is good for him, but let's be real: 1.1.0 DK lived for the grab, and now that's way, way harder agaisnt the majority of the cast. DK is one of the biggest losers here.
Bananas are a little bit better, and bair specifically might be almost safe on block in more cases, but otherwise I'm not... actually seeing a lot of advantage for Diddy here. He loves his grabs, and attacking into Diddy without abandon risks them less. Like DK, Diddy will miss huge grab reward off of shield camping.
Eh. Also relied on grab reward, but the added safety on dash attack and I guess Chef are somewhat valuable. His aerials are all either low landing lag or having landing hitboxes, but I'm unsure if any are close enough that ~4 more frames will reach a tipping point of safety. I'm ruling G&W a loser here, but keeping an open mind.
Obvious winner, to a limit. He has no projectiles, and fights projectiles with speed. He doesn't mind attacking shields in most matchups, and this only cements his safety. His OoS options were limited, low reward, and irrelevant in contrast with his broader ground moveset. Nothing about this change really "enables" Mac to do anything he couldn't already, but it is almost strictly on his side.
Can perform blockstrings with his high-damage low-landing-lag aerials and has a projectile-centric game, so he might seem an obvious winner here. But tether grabs are probably hurt by this though--now even fewer things can be grabbed by tethers, both fast aerials and random low-endlag ground moves. Plus, more shield stun on projectiles is great and all, but can Link convert those to grabs? No, he has to focus on blockstrings. Link's defensive woes will be magnified, but maybe like Bowser Jr. the fact that he already sucked in this department means the damage is contained? We'll see.
Loses. None of her ground moves or aerials become safe. Din's and Phantom are unaffected in usefulness. Her decent OoS defensive game is one of her only good points, and that has taken a hit.
Not as much of a winner as I first though. Nair and fair are considerably safer when done blindly into a shield, but it requires late timing so it's a risk. Mostly a problem for those with slow grabs or otherwise poor OoS options. Otherwise, I don't know if Sheik actually benefits that much outside of those moves. Her ground moveset doesn't seem to benefit much that I can see, and Needles aren't really any better. Sheik benefits less than many other characters, and to my surprise after making this list might not even be a "true winner" in the top half of the list.
I can't see Ganon as anything but a loser here. Unlike Bowser, Ganon doesn't really have any meaningful way of threatening to break shields in his everyday game plan--nice as it to Ganon is when the situation does present itself. The added safety on bair and u-smash is nice I guess, but otherwise nothing really matters. If dair AC'd we'd be having a different conversation, but alas. His OoS options getting worse hardly matters, but Ganon relied on shield more than any character in the game. Better powershield everything, boss.
See Link,but with more projectiles and less blockstrings. Projectiles good, tether bad, whatever. Might also help his f-smash more than most moves.
See Toon Link, but I think the pros are stronger on Samus and the cons less. Landing uair might sometimes be almost safe, scary. But I dunno the character that well, so we'll see.
Landing aerials are almost all safe on block now, if timed right. I think these outweigh the costs of losing d-smash safety and having a tether, but it's still a mixed bag. Probably a winner, more than Sheik.
I think a few more frames of safety will definitely push Pit's already fast and safe smashes past a tipping point where they become really formidable moves that any character would like to trade for. His aerials are basically unaffected, and arrows benefit basically none, but that alone is a pretty big deal for Pit and outweighs the defensive cost.
First off, her grab-centric game is going to take a big hit. She's almost definitely a loser here. The idea that her smashes become safe from this is also silly. But it's not all doom and gloomy. The change helps her jab game more than most, and f-tilt is WAY better--you can't dodge out of it, and unshielding is possible but gets hit. (And the move does a ton of shield damage.) Auto-Reticle and Explosive Flame now have proper blockstun. Finally, landing fair is probably safe on block against most characters when timed optimally, and suffers less punishment otherwise. One of the more minor losers, probably.
Man, I don't even know.
He's almost definitely a loser, like Ganon, but not as bad because he relies on shield a bit less and has nair. The added safety on everything else doesn't matter much, though. It doesn't reach a tipping point where it makes a difference.
ARCFIRE BLOCKSTUN. ARCTHUNDER SUPER BLOCKSTUN. HIGH DAMAGE ELECTRIC AERIALS AND SMASHES. Robin is waaaay better, even if his reliance on shield means it doesn't come without some cost. If you told me Robin was the biggest winner today, I'd believe you. But we'll see.
Character who relies almost exclusively on projectiles and dodges? Uh, duh, of course he likes these changes. He even had lackluster OoS options to begin with.
Well, nair and uair are probably safe on block with good timing, but the range means this isn't practical as Sheik or ZSS's similar cases. Dair being less punishable on block is nice, probably just enough to matter looking at the numbers, and multi-jump bair being better on shield is strictly a good thing. Otherwise, seems like Kirby is an obvious loser.
Well, DDD enjoys a safer SH AC bair and jabs/f-tilt. Otherwise, this just seems bad for DDD, who relied on OoS grab a lot. Definite loser imo.
A fast character with an already almost safe dash attack who relies on multi-jump aerials and is motivated to constantly aggressor? Clearly one of the bigger winners, in spite of having no projectiles and lackluster landing lag numbers/hitboxes.
Landing nair is sometimes safe on block, but meh. He's like MK with regards to this change, but without the mechanical affinity--just the strategic. He would like it, except that he has no way to enjoy it. Unless I'm missing something, Fox loses the most of all the top characters.
I don't see how this benefits Falco. Looking at the numbers, it
almost does, but nothing ever reaches a tipping point to matter. Extra safety on down-b is pretty sweet, and Falco isn't disadvantaged by having a worse shield as most characters imo. So probably a loser, but hard to say?
Oh dear, electric hitbox blockstrings everywhere. Safe-on-block quick attack for days. Super obvious winner.
Character who relies on amazing OoS options, has a great anti-shield game, no approach projectiles, and dismal landing lag. Huge loser. Everything is worse, nothing is better. Everything that was good against shield isn't any better, everything that was punishable on block is still just as punishable. Probably the biggest loser of this.
Yeah yeah, aura sphere charge, whatever. Let's also talk about safe on landing nair, and safer dair? Unhappy with having a worse shield with his poor neutral, though. Overall a slight winner.
"Jigglypuff is worse because shield breaks hurt her more than anyone else!" Yeah, but only relative to roster size. Jigglypuff has the tools to rarely need to shield anyway, though her high-damage throws and decent grab range make it a sad loss nonetheless. Jigglypuff loves having safer multi-jump aerials though, even if none of them become safe landing options. With Pound in your toolkit, shield damage mattering more is important to her. It even makes Rollout better, in a small way! Jigglypuff is a winner here, folks.
Landing nair is nice, otherwise I don't think he is changed much. Probably neutral.
Landing nair is safe but still slow startup, f-smash maybe safe, projectiles are safer but doesn't matter much, slightly annoyed at worse OoS options. Probably neutral to slight loser.
First off, the ability to maybe attack Ness's shield head on and not get grabbed is kinda sort of a huge, matchup defining deal. But it's not all bad for him. PK Fire and PK Thunder are trivially better. Fair and bair are nontrivially safer on block, which is pretty big. D-tilt into repeat vs. grab is now a true 50/50 on block. Ultimately, I expect Ness to be somewhat neutral.
Character who relies on projectiles for approach and safety. Uh, duh, obviously a winner. But don't expect Villager to be doing any crazy blockstrings--except for maybe, the math just isn't there within Villager's moveset.
No clue honestly, but purple are going to be a better projectile and yellow attacks are going to be significantly safer.
Lag-cancelled weighted header is now truly safe on block, though grab is not quite guaranteed. Jumbo Hoops cannot be counter-attacked between hits OoS by most characters, though you can still roll away or dodge. Otherwise, WFT doesn't seem to have gained much. Her landing lag is a bit too high to truly abuse it, and her projectiles outside of weighted header aren't really used for approach or safety. The added safety on her ground moves isn't enough to matter to anything I can see. Overall a loser, especially without Weighted Header and Jumbo Hoops.
He has a safe landing nair, crazy shield damage, and shieldlocking d-smash you can apply Buster too--too bad it pokes most characters instead of breaking shields. Shulk also has the tools to play defense without just sitting in shield. I expect Shulk to be the heavy character most benefitted by these changes, but it will all depends on what kind of blockstrings people manage to find.
Like Mario but worse, because he's slower and relies on shield more. Plus, he relies on his AMAZING up-b, which is now less accessible as an OoS tool.
No idea, but the gap between her and Marth could be somewhat normalized if what we're hearing is true regarding safety.
No clue, but my gut says that between his projectiles, dash attack, and never having good OoS optiosn to begin with, he's a winner.
A slight winner, thanks to a projectile focused game and less reliance on shield than most. Nothing radical though.
No clue actually, but I don't see anything either way that should be radically different.
I am skeptical that any of Mewtwo's stuff becomes safe, but I guess we'll see. Jab and d-tilt could benefit quite a bit, in some contexts. Oh, and D-smash probably becomes truly safe! But Mewtwo's reliance on grab and his modest reliance on shield makes him an unhappy floating lemur with these changes. At least Shadow Ball is safer, that's nice.
Almost all of Lucas's aerials and spaced f-tilt become safe on block. D-tilt and PSI Magnet are still punishable but meaningfully safer, safe against certain characters. PK Fire is safer, PK Thunder is better but still bad. Clearly great for Lucas, in spite of his tether grab.
Not sure. I'm skeptical he can engineer blockstrings. I expect him to be hurt more than helped, but I dunno, he has good safety for his damage already, so we might see a lot of tipping point contexts.
Obvious winner between f-tilt, weak u/d-tilt, and nair; duh. It even helps his projectile safety, though it matters less than say Mario or Luigi, obviously. Do note that OoS SRK is hurt though! That does matter.
Obviously worse, unless there's some crazy potential for a blockstring that I can't see.
Already meh OoS projectile-focused character? Obviously improved.
Hard to say--do any of his attacks really cross a tipping point of safety with these 4-6 frames on block? I can see it with d-tilt. I expect close to an overall neutral.
Whelp, that's that.