First things first, my reaction to the Gheb flip:
1) Anyone who is not taking a serious look at my slot needs to start right now. I don't want to spend the whole day with people absent-mindedly saying they don't like my slot just for a wagon to form at the last minute. If you have a case to make against me, make it now.
2) I stand by that it was a good lynch. It sucks to have a bad scumread, but I think Gheb's flip will do a lot to galvanize the town around a good lynch candidate today, assuming we don't get bogged down in inactivity and apathy.
So what do we learn from Gheb's lynch?
1) First, here was how the Gheb or J question played out in the before the hammer came down.
Gheb:
---> Xatres - The main advocate.
---> Spak - Who was on the verge of defending Gheb before being convinced based on my reasoning.
---> TSYK - Who had been pushing (in his own way) for Gheb the entire day.
---> Phoenix - Who came in and broke the initial tie.
J:
---> Ryker - Who started the push.
---> Gheb - Who voted only for survival
---> RR - Who made a fairly comprehensive case at the last wire
---> Maven - Who was in favor of lynching Gheb until RR's case changed his mind
---> Dastrn - Who was suspicious of both, was mostly in favor of J over Gheb, but ended up jumping to Gheb in the final minutes
2) No one every refuted my case on Gheb. I don't really know what to make of this, given how apathetic town as has been. So far, there have been 3 big pushes in the game -- Kantrip, Gheb, and J. Kantrip's case got some half-hearted pushback from Spak, and J's lynch got at least some measure of defense from myself and others -- although Maven at least was swayed over to side with his lynch. Meanwhlie my case against Gheb was argued against pretty much on the basis of "it's better to lynch an inactive" and "J's a better target."
This is the first time this has happened to me. I tend to sit in my armchair until I have a large case, then unload all at once. Sometimes I nail scum. Other times my target makes a well-reasoned defense and we move on. Other times the townie implodes and gets lynched because he couldn't take the pressure (Soup in FE:Awakening). But I've never been in a situation where no one bothered to engage with my case and just let the lynch go through.
I wish I could have asked why no one was pushing back on me yesterDay, before the flip, but I was caught up just trying to get people to POST to think of it.
3) Two people jumped onto the lynch at the last minute, and one person jumped off.
First, Phoenix came in when town opinion was evenly split and dropped his support on Gheb. However, he also did so with the comment "Not sure what I'm thinking if he flips scum." Basically admitting he didn't support EITHER lynch, but simply wanted to prevent a no lynch. When I pressed him on why he chose Gheb over J, he said "My own reasoning since then really. I haven't been given a formidable argument to change my mind." That's it. Nothing else.
Second, Maven jumped off the Gheb wagon for the J wagon. This was intended to break the tie, if Dastrn had not swung back to Gheb in the end.
Finally, Dastrn swings from J to Gheb. He had been supporting J over Gheb the whole time, and dropped this vote AFTER RR had made his full case on J. Dastrn then comes into D3 claiming he was planning to push RR had he not been NK'd.
4) Two people pushed the bad lynch from the beginning
First, TSYK had been sporatically posting about Gheb with varying levels of assuredness all day.
Second, I pushed for a Gheb lynch after a reread over Gheb, Dastrn, and Spak's play.
SO HOW HAVE THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTED MY READS?
As promised, here's how my reads were affected:
Dastrn ---- I'm definitely not as staunchly holding to my town read as before. I still think I have a good handle on when he's town and when he's scum my posting style alone (his scum game is usually fairly obvious). However, his reads have *consistently* been bad this game and I don't understand what made him hop over to Gheb at the end of the day. I need to at least consider him in possible scumteams.
J ---- I continue to have trouble reading J (as per usual). I need to reread the case on him.
TSYK ---- Still unsure. He wanted the Gheb lynch all day, before I made my case. So you can't call him opportunistic, but he's also putting off so many newbie vibes he's very hard to read.
Maven ---- I find it hard to believe that scum, knowing the Gheb lynch was in the bag, would jump over to J at the last second. Unless Maven is in league with J or Dastrn, I don't see how his actions make sense as scum. For J, he may have been going for the bus. For Dastrn, they could have arranged to put themselves on opposite sides of the issue or, in the case of J/Maven/Dastrn -- for Dastrn to come in and save J at the end.
Phoenix ---- Need to a do a solid reread. I gave him strong town reads early on, based on how he interacted with Dastrn. He reacted to Dastrn's play the same way I've seen townies react to mechanical play on numerous occassions. Since then, he's made moves that were mostly null in my book. I have no idea who his connections are with off the top of my head.
Ryker ---- Town - Essentially mod confirmed
Spak ---- I'm glad he posted his planned case in defense of Gheb, but I also wish he had posted it before the flip. I have a lingering scumlean from my big reread yesterDay, but I need to look over the past few pages again to get a better beat on him.
POSSIBLE SCUMTEAMS
At this point, these are the scumteams I'm mulling over. Not posting them in any particularly order.
J/Spak/????
J/TSYK/????
Spak/TSYK/????
Dastrn/Phoenix/????
Dastrn/Maven/????
Also, for kicks and giggles, here's how I think a Xatres/Dastrn scumteam would probably look:
Xatres/TSYK/Dastrn - We buddy up by playing the brother card, then coach TSYK to keep sounding as newbie as possible --
Dastrn
, admit it, that's totally how we'd have played that situation