Twisted Fate Mafia [D3 BEGINS, DEADLINE: 3/8 at 11:59 PM EST]

[Dastrn]

The problem I have with Xatres is not his content and what he's saying rather the time of it and when he is doing it. He seems to have all the answers and all the plans in his head and this type of manufactured play seems more akin to a scummer, that or Xatres is just a very process oriented townie. I would like Dastrn to give me more analysis on his brother for starters and how he feels about him more in detail, especially his post analyzing the Gheb wagon.

Xatres is a very process-oriented everything. Like me, he is an extremely logic-driven person, and will play the odds when he doesn't have anything better to play.
That's a null tell to me, because he's that way with everything in his life.

With that said, I don't have a strong town-vibe from him. Yes, he's trying hard and playing hard, but good scum do that, and he is very good at what he does, whether it's playing scum or town. I, on the other hand, (as xatres said) suck BAD at playing the scum side of things, and my "mechanical play" is often seen right through in my scum games. I'm almost always dead by D2 when scum, and I think I may have 0 or 1 win as scum total in perhaps 15 games played on swf.

To put it plainly, he's a much better player than I am.

My thought on the gheb wagon is that while he didn't fight it, and pushed more for a J lynch, he welcomed either option when it came down to it. I've repeatedly asked late in the Day phase for people to dissent and give us more lynch candidates, to make a case, and for everyone to consider what we're hearing. I don't want to just slowly find ourselves falling onto whatever wagon has the most steam 48 hours before deadline. That's so lame. (I don't mean "lame" like a teenager does, I mean lame as in "it's essentially just limping our way around".)

I think a spak/xatres/x team is quite likely. That's my biggest hunch right now.

If I had to speculate on a 3rd, I'd say it's either Corps or TSYK, but that's because I know it's not me, and I'm thinking it's not likely J, although I could be sold on J being in that team. With J's general frustration and lack of energy towards this game, I could see him suggesting that the scum team could coast to a victory if they bussed him Day 2 as an alternative vote, so we either mislynch gheb or bus the scum and make xatres look damn good for pushing us off of Gheb last minute. Just a scenario I've been rolling around in my head.

My preferred lynch candidates today: Spak == Xatres > whoever else.

 

[Spak]

Xatres is a very process-oriented everything. Like me, he is an extremely logic-driven person, and will play the odds when he doesn't have anything better to play.
That's a null tell to me, because he's that way with everything in his life.

With that said, I don't have a strong town-vibe from him. Yes, he's trying hard and playing hard, but good scum do that, and he is very good at what he does, whether it's playing scum or town. I, on the other hand, (as xatres said) suck BAD at playing the scum side of things, and my "mechanical play" is often seen right through in my scum games. I'm almost always dead by D2 when scum, and I think I may have 0 or 1 win as scum total in perhaps 15 games played on swf.

To put it plainly, he's a much better player than I am.

My thought on the gheb wagon is that while he didn't fight it, and pushed more for a J lynch, he welcomed either option when it came down to it. I've repeatedly asked late in the Day phase for people to dissent and give us more lynch candidates, to make a case, and for everyone to consider what we're hearing. I don't want to just slowly find ourselves falling onto whatever wagon has the most steam 48 hours before deadline. That's so lame. (I don't mean "lame" like a teenager does, I mean lame as in "it's essentially just limping our way around".)

I think a spak/xatres/x team is quite likely. That's my biggest hunch right now.

If I had to speculate on a 3rd, I'd say it's either Corps or TSYK, but that's because I know it's not me, and I'm thinking it's not likely J, although I could be sold on J being in that team. With J's general frustration and lack of energy towards this game, I could see him suggesting that the scum team could coast to a victory if they bussed him Day 2 as an alternative vote, so we either mislynch gheb or bus the scum and make xatres look damn good for pushing us off of Gheb last minute. Just a scenario I've been rolling around in my head.

My preferred lynch candidates today: Spak == Xatres > whoever else.

This lynchpool and J read implies that you disagree with my J push. You had me as a town lean yesterday and now I'm your highest lynch choice, and you were considering getting rid of J late yesterday and now he's not a solid spot on your scumteam. Would you mind explaining why?

 

[#HBC | J]

Sparky, I am going to condense our debate into smaller posts so that we stop cluttering the thread with such large posts with quotes if that's alright.

I will ask you this question, do you feel that you are stretching your points to try and hold onto them more so for the fact that you have no other scum-reads besides myself and trying to make it stick? Who is my partner if I am scum since you denounced the J-TSYK connection you had?

Dastrn @Corps phoenix

I am still in the same boat as before with Xatres/Sparky being my preference for toDay. It's honestly a 50/50 between those two as to where I am wanting to vote for toDay.

 

[Dastrn]

This lynchpool and J read implies that you disagree with my J push. You had me as a town lean yesterday and now I'm your highest lynch choice, and you were considering getting rid of J late yesterday and now he's not a solid spot on your scumteam. Would you mind explaining why?

I've been quite wrong about my read on things thus far this game. That much is clear. I've been trying to reinterpret things based on new information and form whatever makes the best sense, given the new information.
I always felt that a town flip on Gheb would implicate you to a certain extent. We talked about it enough that you posted to question why so many of us felt you and Gheb were TvS.

So now I'm left with a small pool of players and I have to find a 3 man team that makes sense. If I can't find exactly 1 person who is definitely scum based on hard information, I have to start thinking in terms of what sorts of teams make sense. You and Xatres together make a lot of sense to me now that I look at the fact that my read on J softened significantly, Gheb flipped town, and RR was night-killed. That's a lot of new information to process.

RR and Xatres' willingness to lynch either candidate at the end of Day 2, with Xatres feeling stronger towards Ghen and RR feeling stronger towards J makes me think that (as I described above), a scumXatres was willing to bus if necessary, but also was really focused on hitting Gheb if he could. I made my final decision on who to hammer because I was suspicious of RR more than a bit, and because J's wtf post seemed genuine.

So I've softened on J, my RR read was proven wrong, my gheb read was proven wrong, and that has given me a new angle to read things, and right now, I think you and xatres are a likely team. Of the two, I'd prefer to lynch xatres right now, now that I think more and more about it. But I'm certainly open to hearing other opinions.

 

[#HBC | J]

Hey, Dastrn, I have a purely WIFOM question for you if you'd entertain it. Lemme know if I can lob it your way.

 

[Dastrn]

Go for it.

 

[#HBC | J]

Tell me about why your brother would have killed RR.

 

[Spak]

I will ask you this question, do you feel that you are stretching your points to try and hold onto them more so for the fact that you have no other scum-reads besides myself and trying to make it stick?

I don't feel like I'm stretching my points very much, but I am exaggerating here and there to get my points across. I have a weak scum lean on Xastrn because in addition to never playing with him (leading me to be a little over-cautious of his slot), I feel like he was trying too hard to keep his options open at the end of last phase, and I trust Dastrn's analysis on the guy more than my own (Dastrn lived with him for a while, so he could probably pick up on subtle tells that I wouldn't ever find), but the third slot is open for PoE.

Who is my partner if I am scum since you denounced the J-TSYK connection you had?

I don't think Maven or Ryker are lying about their alignment, I think that TSYK is being buddied by you (although you could still be a team and you're trying to boost his confidence), I agree that one of the brothers is probably scum, and Corps is the only one left from PoE (although I haven't really been paying attention to him all game). So I would be proposing a J/Xastrn/Corps team, with an unlikely backup of J/Xastrn/TSYK.

We talked about it enough that you posted to question why so many of us felt you and Gheb were TvS.

That's because I thought he was town, then I was fine with the TvS analysis when I decided he was scum, and now that he flipped town, I'm really against the prospect of me and Gheb being TvS.

J's wtf post seemed genuine.

How so? J's last posts of the phase are one of the main reasons that I think he's scummy. Go back to my #1076, read my response to the 8th quote, and tell me how J's wtf post isn't scummy.


Anyways, my questions for J:

1) Could you please address the entirety of Ryu's case?
2) Knowing that Del and TSYK are at the same experience level, why would you want to give Del the PL instead of TSYK, even though Del publicly proclaimed a V/LA and TSYK kinda disappeared?

 

[Spak]

#HBC | J look at the above post. My quoting skills are sub-par and I wanted you to know I responded, but failed to actually get any quotes with you name on the title bar.

 

[Dastrn]

Leaving me without an easy target, RR was targeting you, and hence, perhaps I would read it as an implication of Jscum getting rid of his biggest detractor?

 

[Dastrn]

afk for a few hours, in case anyone asks anything. RL johns.

 

[Xatres]

Leaving me without an easy target, RR was targeting you, and hence, perhaps I would read it as an implication of Jscum getting rid of his biggest detractor?

I think you know me better than to go for the Yomi 1 option. Trying to frame J by killing RR would have gone nowhere fast. The second a single person made the argument, it would get WIFOM'd into oblivion. It's literally the worst possible mafia kill a scum-Xatres could have made.

1) Assuming scum-Xatres and town-J
---> Scum-Xatres would have known that he was going to take heat for Gheb's flip. Removing the strongest advocate at the end of D2 for J's lynch would be entirely counter-productive, especially when he knew Dastrn had suspected RR from D1. Leaving both RR and J alive would keep the focus off scum-Xatres.
---> Ryker is practically confirmed town. Scum-Xatres would have wanted this slot off the map as quickly as possible. The more confirmed townies in the game, the easier it is to find scum. Killing Ryker would have easily been the best play.

2) Assuming scum-Xatres and scum-J
---> A J/Xatres scumteam MAY have devised a plan to kill RR, then turn on each other. It's the kind of play I might make. We could tunnel each other in D3 and setup a mislynch for D4 for whoever survives. However, this plan could easily be accomplished without killing RR. In this case, killing Dastrn would have been the best choice. It's the type of kill that could implicate RR down the line, but doesn't look like an outright (and obvious) defense. And, as stated above, killing Ryker would have been a better option as well.

3) Assuming town-Xatres and town-J
---> Killing RR becomes a pretty brilliant plan. Xatres comes into D3 with a bad wrap for getting Gheb lynched. J comes in as yesterDay's secondary lynch candidate. Dastrn loses his only other scumpick.

Does anyone have a case to make against me that doesn't essentially boil down to either
a) He's good at this game so must be suspect, or
b) Pure WIFOM?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I'm going to read through Xatres posts.

I still hate Spak. I still hate J.

I like Corps. I like Maven. I like Dastrn. I am forced to like TSYK because I don't think he's scum with J. PoE suggests Xatres. I'll look into it.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

I would like to apologize for being inactive the whole day, I was having a nice day out with my family and my dog. It's not like anything gamechanging happened. All right, instead of being the one answering questions, I'm gonna ask a question. I STILL do not understand why everyone is calling Spak scum. I don't think anyone's really made a post explaining why they think Spak is scum, and if they did, I probably overlooked it, so if anyone would be so kind as to tag the post where people explained it, or make a post explaining it, I would appreciate it.

 

[Dastrn]

Xatres I was asked for a wifom answer. Gave a wifom answer. If your response (just now) is the obvious yomi 1 response to a case against you, could you have already had it planned as a response because you could easily rebut the case as "too obvious"?

**** now we're thoroughly in wifom hell.

 

[Dastrn]

Thanks Obama.

 

[Dastrn]

On your point 3, xatres, since I've been thoroughly and exhaustively wrong on my scumpicks, leaving RR could have left me feeling like I should have stuck to my guns on D1 and that I would feel vindicated if I nailed him today. It would also make me feel more comfortable with a J Lynch toDay or Day 4.

I agree that scum should have killed Ryker if they wanted to just keep me feeling confused.

 

[Spak]

I'm off to bed and hopefully J has responded by the morning.

I'm going to read through Xatres posts.

I still hate Spak. I still hate J.

I like Corps. I like Maven. I like Dastrn. I am forced to like TSYK because I don't think he's scum with J. PoE suggests Xatres. I'll look into it.

Could you please give us some reasoning for those reads aside from "I like," "I am forced to like," or "I still hate?"

 

[Spak]

*Hopefully J will have responded by morning.

I cant gramer thus laté.

 

[Dastrn]

So is this just going to be like it has been for 2 weeks, then? Nobody says anything, we let 14 hours go without a word? If 3 of you are scum, that means that 4 more of you out there are town, and yesterDay it was 6 to 3 (not counting myself). Town is passively losing this game, and then blaming it on the actives.

I wish we had policy lynched Day 1 at this point. This is why inactivity should just be treated as the biggest scumtell Day 1. Because when it's not policed, games turn into this ****.

I'm not mad, because it's just a silly game about pointing fingers at each other. I'm just annoyed that I put time into stuff like this (specifically because I was invited to) only to have it just be treated with general disinterest.

Imagine if I had put the level of energy into this game that is average of the game. We'd be literally 2 pages shorter of material, just by reducing my postcount to the average. I don't know what to even say about that. Perhaps I should have listened to those that wanted to blind fire at inactives, I guess.

I imagine we'll see a flurry of activity 24 hours before the deadline, and I'll be sitting at my computer at 11pm helping decide between candidates again.

 

[Dastrn]

Ok, with 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, so with 3 scum, that means they need to get 2 townies on board a wagon they create out of 5. They just need to be 40% successful in convincing us to mislynch and we're done.

Does anyone here think we're likely to not fall for it?

I'd like to hear everyone chime in on this (which means 2 people will respond sometime between now and tomorrow night...)
What is the likelihood that you see of us killing scum toDay?

 

[Spak]

What is the likelihood that you see of us killing scum toDay?

Depends on if anyone actually bothers to make cases on who they think are scum, and if those who had cases made against them are willing to respond. I made a case on J and he and TSYK are literally the only people to comment on it. J decided not to trade walls with me anymore (he says it's because he doesn't want to clutter up the page, but I think he realized I actually have a legit case on him), so he limited it to questions. I said it was fine, answered his questions, and asked him a couple questions of my own. That was 23 hours ago. I've seen J in thread once or twice since then, but I can't do anything until the person being asked questions stops dodging.

You've stated that I'm likely to be scum? That's great. Make a case, question me, do whatever you feel is needed to test me; it's more constructive than sitting around twiddling our thumbs until Armageddon comes.

 

[Xatres]

RL Johns: It's my fiance's birthday weekend. Will be more active tomorrow.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

I think that our chances of killing scum today are pretty slim considering that NO ONE'S EVEN HERE. I feel like lynching J because he hasn't answered Spak's question and isn't doing anything, and he's probably scum anyways.
You can't say it's unjustified, he's repeatedly tried to buddy with me, granted, he could just be helping the newbie, but those aren't the vibes I'm getting. #HBC | J Get in here and start talking.


Vote: J

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

Can we get a vote count #HBC | Laundry ?

 

[Spak]

Just got back to the thread, and it's been an hour and a half with no alpha strike. That means J is scum (likely), TSYK is scum (unlikely), or the someone in the scumteam is V/LA.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

This might seem like a stupid question... But what does V/LA mean? >_>

 

[Spak]

This might seem like a stupid question... But what does V/LA mean? >_>

I've been here for almost a year and I've yet to figure out the literal meaning, but it's basically equivalent to being AFK for a long period of time.

 

[Spak]

Actually, nvm about #1105; I just realized that scum can't alpha yet.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

Alright, I'm gonna try to do one of these quoting giant walls of text. Emphasis on the word try. I'm gonna go through J's posts, and put the ones I think are scummy here, and explain why I think they're scummy.

. @Gheb Was your vote on Del just a joke vote, was it because he was being inactive, or was it justified? If it was justified, then please clarify the reason.

I said the above, and J answered like this:

Fair enough, could I get a response to my question that seems to be what TSYK is tagging onto now?

When I saw this post back in D1, I thought "Aww yeah, I finally made a good post!" and I got all excited, but looking back now, I feel more like I was being manipulated. In isolation, this might not seem like anything at all, but, when you put all his posts together, it starts to make more sense. Later on, corps says:

My thoughts haven't changed much. Gheb pulling out the stops on Kantrip was surprising to say the least, moreso that you can somehow make a whole case based on two or three posts. I don't know if anyone asked me if I played Mafia before but yes I have played mafia like I play it right now.

Game has been going at a steady pace so it's a headscratcher that we have people asking for a policy/inactive lynch. I want to lynch somewhere between the center of TSYK, Gheb and Spak but if I had to choose out of the two I'd pick TSYK. I add Gheb/Spak there because I think one of them is Mafia but not the other, especially telling that Spak went out of his way to fully drop a post like thay. Sole impression of Kantrip so far is that "reads too far into things" and I don't believe his behavior of reading too far into Dastrn's meta is scummy, especially when I did it myself. The notion of Spak defending his partner (Kantrip) in the way he did is unfathomable to me and I have overall not liked Spak even if I came to his side before and didn't see why he was being voted earlier. My reasoning back then being he was caught in a RVS situation and him responding anyway where people were treating it RVS would just be determined null, but there's a lack of initiative on his end and it boggles my mind that someone can again - respond like he was writing a case about a case that didn't even mention him. Sole impression of him is that he likes to cover all his bases which I do not like because it looks like he doesn't want to slip up so he tries to preach to the choir; If Dastrn had an evil twin it would be Spak.

in this case of where I see TSYK: "Noobtown" is an umbrella statement. If you look at the times TSYK has taken the time to actually act upon his questioning and need to fit himself between everyone you would see that there is 0 times. I don't think this is townie behavior.

And J responds with:

You were doing so well in my book till I saw the TSYK vote.

How sad.

This post made me say: "He thinks I'm town! I'm town! Maybe he's town too!"[/quote] Which was really dumb on my part. Again, looks like manipulation.

Granted, he responded with this:

Currently, I see nothing that really swings him as noobtown or noobscum besides just noob. (No offense broskii.)

That fact that you feel TSYK is the strongest lynch of toDay especially with inactives and the juicy interaction of Gheb/Kanty with a weird post from Sparky which you pointed out.

It's just such a cop-out to say "Let's lynch TSYK! He's confusing and could be noobtown OR noobscum.". I won't be voting him unless supple reasoning is provided more so of "I have a feel".

I'll be voting one of Maven, lesser extant Delly if he doesn't post, and once I read Gheb's case I'll pick a side of the Gheb vs. Kanty debacle. That's where I feel today's lynch should lead.

but the point remains.

People who I won't consider for lynch toDay

1. Corps
2. RR
3. TSYK
4. Dastrn

Hmm... 3 people and me... Two of these are not like the others.
Gheb says the following:

#HBC | J

I think it's premature to exclude TSYK from a lynch list. What pro-town things have come from that slot to have you not consider him an option whatsoever at this point?

and he was correct. At this point you're thinking "So this post is just gonna be a bunch of quotes and one sentence after?" Trust me, I'll make a paragraph towards the end.
J would repeatedly say: I'll look into him later, he doesn't concern me now, but he still hasn't really looked into me, which isn't making it look good for him.

That's it for the quotes, except for the conversation that's already been discussed about 2 million times. At the end of toDay, I want to see a dead J, and if I get nightkilled, and J isn't killed, please kill him for me. Another thing I think we should take into account, is that a lot of people have attacked J, but he's never been nightkilled. It's almost like the mafia doesn't want him to be dead. Hmm, I wonder why they wouldn't want him dead. Could it be? Is it possible that he's scum? okay. Hopefully now, some people are able to understand the ways that J has been trying to buddy with me. Hopefully this post makes sense to you guys, it took me like an hour to reread everything and make this case. Thanks for sticking with me, and if this all turns out to be a big misunderstanding, J, don't take it personally.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Can we get a vote count #HBC | Laundry ?

At the time of this post, you are literally the only one with a vote down.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

I've been here for almost a year and I've yet to figure out the literal meaning, but it's basically equivalent to being AFK for a long period of time.

Vacation/Limited Access is the meaning of the acronym.

 

[Xatres]

I will be online tonight, rereading and trying toake sense of the game. Expect me to be online from like 8-12 ET.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

Oops, put a /quote where I shouldn't have in that wall, sry

 

[Spak]

This is ridiculous.

#HBC | Laundry Please prod half of the game. Only 5 of the remaining 8 players have posted in the past 48 hours, including one hasn't posted in the past 43 hours. Scumhunting is near impossible if half of the players aren't participating.

 

[Dastrn]

I haven't posted since 2pm yesterday just because I wanted to prove how empty this game would be if I ignored it for one whole day. I'm tired of carrying triple my share of the load. I caught myself considering a policy lynch in mylo.

 

[ThatSmasherYouKnow]

I was gonna make a post saying how ironic it was that I was the one who had posted last and I was waiting on everyone else for once other than the other way around but I didn't want to be rude and waited for a while. When Xatres posted I thought there would be a rush of activity, but I guess not. The deadline is tomorrow, and we're gonna end with a no lynch unless ic we get active soon. Heck, I'm the only one who has a vote down right now. The fact that we only have one vote the day before the deadline disheartens me. Maybe we should just policy lynch at thos point. We should've done that D1.

 

[Spak]

Maybe we should just policy lynch at thos point. We should've done that D1.

Consider my vote on J, but I don't wanna place it yet in the off chance that J's not scum. An alpha strike would be unfortunate if J is actually town and we had a day left.

 

[Xatres]

Posting from phone.

Policy lunch wouldn't be wise in mylo, although i get where you're coming from. A no lynch wouldn't be as terrible right now as it normally would, as that would buy us another day. Although mafia would have 3/7 ratio to work with (traitor or no).

Also, the reason you are the only one with a vote down is because everyone is avoiding voting for fear of mafia piling on all at once and making a lynch.

 

[Xatres]

Mmmmm, policy lunch...