Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Overswarm]

Alright OS, now run those numbers again under the assumption that there are no indies and only three mafia left, and tell me how that works out.

Those numbers work out as Kary flipping mafia and mafia being a recruiting faction with me or JTB or PJB being his partners since we're the only ones not voting for him currently.

You go read this game and let me know if you think that's gonna fly. Nabe slipped up and announced there was a mafia faction to you Sworddancer, so we know there IS one. There's either three recruiting factions, or two recruiting factions. A recruiting faction still exists and we know how Nabe "balanced" the recruiting factions: they have to meet very specific criteria. This isn't just 'pick and recruit', so as long as we don't do something stupid we should be fine. Kary's not going anywhere and mafia's the one that has to kill Kary, not town. If you look in your role PM and see that you aren't mafia and realize that Kary isn't of mafia alignment, you can realize that you can be the ONLY town member and the game is still going. As long as two town is left alive you can still win as town, but only if there is a competing faction to mafia.

I find this hard to believe. You're trusting an independent's result given to you. I say this knowing full well he will flip toNight due to poison. It's either that or he just interprets independent as mafia.

Or actually now that I think about it he might be an insane detective after being recruited, but we don't really have time to test that. That could explain a Kantrip town recruit by J, but that also seems oddly specific unless Nabe had a plan for every role to be "skewed" upon recruitment.

I'm already openly stating that today's best plan is a No Lynch, plain and simple. This is a mislynch = loss scenario and you know it, but if we wait one phase it won't be and the enemy of our enemy is our friend. Kary's boned and cannot win as long as we don't do anything stupid. Sworddancer, Bardull, and PJB can't be recruited actively so that leaves some pretty slim pickings as to who Kary can recruit. Kary's best hope for a victory is to help town kill mafia and get a recruit off. Mafia can only poison the same people that Kary can recruit

We have to leave Kary alive and lynch scum tomorrow and the Day after. If JTB's numbers change and we're able to determine the amount of scum, we may be able to just lynch scum tomorrow and then lynch Kary after and then find the remaining scum depending on the numbers.

The question you should be asking yourself isn't "should we lynch Kary" it's "what mafia member should we lynch tomorrow"

 

[Kantrip]

Overswarm's numbers are kind of cute after a while.

Pants on head ******** with no rhyme, reason, or logic kind of cute.

 

[Kantrip]

Still don't get why the voices in his head say Kary can't be Mafia. I am actually flabbergasted that he thinks I am Indy and can recruit.

 

[Overswarm]

Still don't get why the voices in his head say Kary can't be Mafia. I am actually flabbergasted that he thinks I am Indy and can recruit.

Okay, Kary's mafia, then explain who his mafia partners are please.

Also explain how there is still a recruiting faction if both you and Kary cannot recruit.

 

[BarDulL]

unvote

Actually don't want anyone to hammer yet. Kary's still the lynch toDay.

@Circus & BarDull: Who do you two believe to be Kary's scummates?

I answered this earlier yo, but I'll elaborate a bit.

Kary's approach to Sword was a surprise to me because Kary opted to change routes from OS. I have no ****ing clue what this meant, and I also have no clue why Sword responded the way he did if we're operating on the assumption that he actually did have a mafia claim on Kary. I'm not really sure if he suspected Kantrip of being Indy or some **** at that point, but that's really the only reason why he would have responded the way he did if he is for sure Town. This requires me to read a bit more into that interaction though. I have no clue why Sword would decide to not trust Kantrip's ability under those circumstances. Was OS' FUD really responsible for it?

Moving on, I don't really remember PJB/Kary interacting that much, and neither of them tried pushing against the other with any amount of umph to go along with it. I think there might be a disconnect here between scum mates, but I kinda have to reread which is a pain in the *** because I don't have ALL the time in the world to do that, unfortunately.

JTB is null and there's a good chance he's scum, but he can also be Town. Basically, he's a big ol' question mark that needs to be dealt with ASAP. On that premise, I'd strongly prefer Kantrip checking out JTB over any other slot (even PJB, ESPECIALLY PJB because he's a claimed Ascetic. That feels more like Circus' jurisdiction.)

 

[BarDulL]

OS, if you operate on the assumption that I'm Town, what does that say for your numbers theory?

 

[BarDulL]

OS feels way too obvious to be Kary's scum mate, but Occam's Razor might not be wrong here. :-X. IDK what to say regarding OS/Kary as potential scummates outside of that.

 

[BarDulL]

Quad-posting like a bawss. I don't understand Kary's tunneling of OS' slot on the premise that OS is Indy. Reason being is that, assuming Kary IS mafia, if Kary's team poisoned someone not named OS last Night, then that doesn't explain why there were still two kills on N1. If the Vig AND the SK get kills, why is OS guilty of being Indy from Kary's point of view? Do you guys know what I mean? The only reason why it would make sense for Kary to believe that OS turned Indy is if Mafia has a standard night kill of their own, but it's considerably unlikely considering the previous night phases suggesting mafia only having a poison kill.

 

[BarDulL]

EBWOP: If Kary's team poisoned someone not named OS on N1****, then that doesn't explain why there was still two kills on N1.

This is all operating under the assumption that Kary suspects OS to have been recruited by the Shadow Inquisitor on N1 tho.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

prod dodge

also, lol at my execute ability being a bluff.
but you're right about me not JUST wanting to self-destruct though, want to push towards a mafia win, which killing myself doesn't achieve due to one of my role characteristics.

also never pushed OS on premise he was indy I'm just confident he is at this stage, duh.

 

[BarDulL]

prod dodge

also, lol at my execute ability being a bluff.
but you're right about me not JUST wanting to self-destruct though, want to push towards a mafia win, which killing myself doesn't achieve due to one of my role characteristics.

also never pushed OS on premise he was indy I'm just confident he is at this stage, duh.

As mafia, do you have any hard evidence that OS is indeed indy? What information lead you to making this assertion?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, if you operate on the assumption that I'm Town, what does that say for your numbers theory?

I don't assume your town, the only real assumption I've made is that Sworddancer is town.

Removing Kantrip
Removing Kary *indie*
Removing Myself
Removing Sworddancer

leaves you, pjb, circus, JTB

The number of mafia being a slight variable. I feel strongly that PJB is scum, but am not sure if you or Circus is a partner based on the actions of today. Maybe both. I don't feel JTB is as likely a mafia member due to the events of today and JTB outing some pertinent information. If I had to assume you were town I'd probably look at Circus more closely, but I don't assume you're town.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

What the flying dogbags OS?

Why are you assuming that mafia wouldn't bus their partner given a three man team? If I was on a three man team, now would seem like the ideal time to bus your partner that has a cop guilty on him! Just because you, JTB and PJB are not attacking Kary doesn't mean that you guys are his only possible scummates. >.<

Also, this Kantrip indie stuff is just ridiculous. Lets say Kantrip is indie recruited by J. Okay, so why does that mean that he all of the sudden has the power to fake a result? Why can't he be indy and still have his regular cop powers? If I knew for a 100% certainty that Kantrip was indeed indy, I would STILL trust his mafia result on Kary because I HIGHLY doubt that his power would change from what it use to be.

On a side note, Nabe didn't slip up anything. Read the very first post of the thread, under "game-specific rules." Rule 13 he states very plainly that there is "at least one standard mafia fraction in this game."

 

[Overswarm]

Do you think I'm mafia, Sworddancer?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

No, I do not.

 

[Overswarm]

No, I do not.

So you understand that I'm trying to do this in the best interest of town, correct?

So when I say "no lynch gives us the best option", that I'm not just blowing hot air?

There are 8 people here. There are NOT 4 mafia or the game would be done. Thus, there must be 3 or less. Potentially any number of independents. Let's assume one, Kary, as Kantrip is dying toNightttt.ffffffffff
s
sfThere will be 7 people tomorrow, 6 if we lynch Kary. If there are three mafia and Kary is not one of them, the game is over. Given that it is impossible for Kary to be lynched without mafia wanting to lynch him I am positive Kary is independent.

If you are WRONG, we lose by lynching Kary.

If I am wrong, we have another phase.

If I am right, town can actually win by simply leaving Kary alive as long as we don't mislynch. If we do, well, we're ****ed. If we don't though, mafia have to keep attempting to kill Kary without town's help meaning that the ONLY way town can lose is if they misylnch. That's it.

Yes, it's a hard bargain but it's also the only choice we have at this juncture. No Lynching allows this. We have 8 players here and need 5 votes to lynch. We won't be able to lynch mafia. Tomorrow we'll have 7 players and will only need 4; then we WILL be able to lynch. We can then lynch mafia and continue to do so day after day to win.

The cherry on top of all of this is that we know for a fact an independent exists due to JTB's role.

Either it's Kantrip, which means his investigation could be suspect, or Kary, which means I'm correct, or both, which still means I'm correct.

The fact that an indy still exists means that town can win.

Town wants to lynch mafia.
Mafia wants to lynch the independent.
The independent wants to live.

The "when" to lynching Kary is going to determine if town can win. If we do it before lynching one or two mafia (we'll be able to tell from JTB's results), the game will simply end.

 

[Kantrip]

OS still hasn't explained why the hell Kary is Indy and can't be mafia

 

[Overswarm]

OS still hasn't explained why the hell Kary is Indy and can't be mafia

THEN WHO IS INDY

You claim to not be it, but I don't even care enough to look into it as you will flip tonight. If we no lynch, we do not lose toNight, period.

And because it doesn't add up with a 3 man mafia team given this game's events and especially today's events, unless you consider a 3 man mafia team consisting of some combination of myself, JTB, PJB, and Kary. I don't buy that and you shouldn't either.

If we No Lynch today we will not lose.

If we lynched Kary and he flipped mafia, we still have at least 2 mafia left, right?

8 today, lynch kary flip mafia
6 Day 7, lynch someone flip mafia
4 Day 8 lylo

BEST OPTION ON DAY 4 IS NO LYNCH.

I'm just doing it ahead of the curve rather than waiting until the end. We don't have to lynch an independent. We just need to lynch mafia. That's it. The independent is right there in front of us.

Even if you truly believe Kary is mafia, you're still going to be in the same situation later. No lynch today instead of on Day 8 and we have the largest chance of victory.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS, what will no lynching accomplish though? You yourself admit that there are only 3 mafia left. So even under your own assumption that Kary is indie, then why wouldn't you just want to lynch another scummie toDay? Why are you acting like we don't have the numbers? Four town + and indie on a mafia member = dead mafia member.

Unless you're suggesting that the indie wouldn't lynch mafia? In which case, what would no lynching do to fix that?

I'm not buying for a second that we should no lynch in order to see what Kanty flips.

More indies just seems plain unlikely at this point, and JTB's results is not significant reasoning to believe that existence of more indies.

OS I have no idea what your motivation is. At best, you're town just being profoundly dumb. I also don't think that you would go out of your way so hard core (plus my Night 1 results and all that) to defend Kary. However, I know for a fact that no townie is his right mind so be calling for a no lynch right now. Anything can happen in the Night, so I simply don't trust the Night without lynching a confirmed scummie.

I believe that we are dealing with 3 mafia right now. No more scum, no less. If we no lynch right now, then in best case scenario we simply drop down from being in MYLO to LYLO according to my assumption. Worst case scenario some scum **** goes down that we don't know about because we simply don't know how this set up works.

Btw, you never got to the counterpoint I made about how ridiculous it is to assume that, even if Kantrip's alignment changed, his power would to.

 

[Overswarm]

If we lynch today and don't hit mafia, we have 6 people left resulting in an automatic loss. How do you not see that? Kantrip is poisoned.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Mfw why didn't I just think of this beforehand.

OS, yesturDay JTB claimed that there were 4-5 scum left. ToDay he is claiming that there are 3-4 scum left.

If we were to assume that there were 5 scum yesturDay, then after Ran and J died there could only be three scum left. There can't be any less because JTB's result states that there are at least two scum, and there can't be anymore because at maximum there was 5 scum yesturDay and two scum died at the end of the Day.

Therefore, there are only three scum left.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

there are at least two scum,

EDWOP: Should be "at least three scum."

 

[Overswarm]

Mfw why didn't I just think of this beforehand.

OS, yesturDay JTB claimed that there were 4-5 scum left. ToDay he is claiming that there are 3-4 scum left.

If we were to assume that there were 5 scum yesturDay, then after Ran and J died there could only be three scum left. There can't be any less because JTB's result states that there are at least two scum, and there can't be anymore because at maximum there was 5 scum yesturDay and two scum died at the end of the Day.

Therefore, there are only three scum left.

You know that isn't true; we've been discussing all day the possibility of a Kantrip recruit.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'm going to just claim now since I haven't done anything this game and really have no reason to stall it.

I'm Naoki Konishi, Town Sadsack. I don't have any abilities, but at the start of each day, I mope to myself and consider the state of the game in a series of "what ifs".

I can outline what each night has said if people want it, but for the most part they have been like what I got at the end of last night.

If I am to consider my what ifs to be true, there are 4-5 scum left in the game, the poisoner is still alive, and someone can still have their alignment changed. It ends with me thinking about what my friend Narukami-san would do if he was in my position.

IF JTB is telling the truth, then at the start of Day 5 his "what-ifs" told him that there was 4-5 scum left, so this was after Ran was recruited. Thus, only three scum left in the game.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

You know that isn't true; we've been discussing all day the possibility of a Kantrip recruit.

Any I've been calling you bat**** insane for even suggesting just an idea all game. ^.^

Good day sir.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

EDWOP: "Any' should be "And" and "game" should be "Day."

 

[BarDulL]

Even if Kantrip was recruited, he's poisoned, isn't he?

Can we just hardbody Kary and call it a day? Nothing more is getting done here.

 

[Overswarm]

Any I've been calling you bat**** insane for even suggesting just an idea all game. ^.^

Good day sir.

Which makes sense given only you and the poisoner would be recruited.

 

[Overswarm]

Even if Kantrip was recruited, he's poisoned, isn't he?

Can we just hardbody Kary and call it a day? Nothing more is getting done here.

"can we just hardbody"

oy

Bardull, who do you think can still recruit someone?

Do you think someone can still be recruited?

How do you think the recruiting process works?

 

[JTB]

since we are discussing scum numbers, let me bring up all my results

D2 - 5-6 scum, hint of poisoner, hint of recruiter
D3 - no results due to shinjiro flip (flavor says we spent all day sharing good memories about him)
D4 - 3-4 scum, hint of poisoner and victims may have died to him, hint of recruiter
D5 - 4-5 scum, hint of poisoner and victims may have died to him, hint of recruiter
D6 - 3-4 scum, hint of poisoner and victims may have died to him, hint of recruiter

 

[JTB]

d4 saw the death of brb and la bat, meaning scum was brought down to either 3 or 4

j then recruited ran, bringing it up to 4 or 5

both of them then died, bringing it down to 2 or 3 if no one was recruited last night

however, since its 3 or 4, someone had to be recruited

what if kary was the one recruited and hes just baiting his lynch so another person can get recruited toNight and give the game to scum?

 

[BarDulL]

I think strict criterion needs to be met, or at least I hope as much, on the premise that alignment changes are complete ******** in almost every respect. I mean, I was completely sold on RanTown, but I got wrecked by his alignment change. Even if some of J's actions were questionable (as well as Ran's), I was just so sure of RanTown...bleagh.

IDK, I think most would agree that alignment changes are kinda whack. Maybe not? I think they are though.

Anyway, I'm not REALLY sure how alignment changes work, but I remember Ran undergoing "changes" regarding how his character worked as the game progressed. At first he was Rise, then Risette, and then he somehow transformed into Catherine. If I had to guess, I would say that the transformation process is prolonged or delayed, which makes me wonder if July had the potential to change into scum as well because she was undergoing a similar "changing" process.

Outside of that, I have absolutely no clue how the mechanic to change alignment works in this game.

 

[BarDulL]

I don't believe that Ran recruited J, rather it was the reverse. J was never "formerly Kanji," only Ran was formerly "TownRise", btw.

 

[Overswarm]

d4 saw the death of brb and la bat, meaning scum was brought down to either 3 or 4

j then recruited ran, bringing it up to 4 or 5

both of them then died, bringing it down to 2 or 3 if no one was recruited last night

however, since its 3 or 4, someone had to be recruited

what if kary was the one recruited and hes just baiting his lynch so another person can get recruited toNight and give the game to scum?

Possible, but the only way that could occur is if Kary was an independent gambler or bomb I think. I agree that specific criterion needs to be met though, which is exactly why I don't want to play into Kary's hands. Given that Kary claimed both independent and mafia I think living past today was the last thing on his mind. If he is a gambler any person here could be a recruit if he was able to guess the lynch. That's just specific to that type of role though, we have no evidence of a gambler.

 

[Kantrip]

D5 - 4-5 scum, hint of poisoner and victims may have died to him, hint of recruiter (3 scum, J + Ran)
D6 - 3-4 scum, hint of poisoner and victims may have died to him, hint of recruiter (3 scum)

2 scum died at once and your hint went from 4-5 to 3-4. As OS would say, look at the math. It proves that the only possible scenario is going from 5 scum to 3 scum sans recruiting. But OS would also say use Occam's Razor (or at least I'd expect him to although his recent speculation has thrown that out the window), so we should throw out recruiting too.

Your theory on Kary baiting his lynch isn't likely because we got a guilty result backed by both myself and Swords before he started acting all crazy and claiming anti-town roles.

THEN WHO IS INDY

Why does there need to be an indy left? We've already had 2 separate indy factions killed off, what makes you think there are more to find? If there is another indy, it is YOU as an Inquisitor's Aspect. But again, why must there be more indies, and not just one 3-man mafia faction?

You claim to not be it, but I don't even care enough to look into it as you will flip tonight. If we no lynch, we do not lose toNight, period.

Yeah don't you think I've been recruited by Indy Delayed Lover Reviver J? Why are you trying to say Kary and myself are BOTH SEPARATE Indy factions. It's so ridiculous I won't even think for a second that you believe it.

And because it doesn't add up with a 3 man mafia team given this game's events and especially today's events, unless you consider a 3 man mafia team consisting of some combination of myself, JTB, PJB, and Kary. I don't buy that and you shouldn't either.

No, the mafia team is a 3-man team with any combination of Kary, you, JTB, PJB, Bardull, Swords, Circus, and me. Why do you think Bardull/Circus/Swords/myself are exempt from the possibility? Sure I could see ruling out me (because apparently I'm indy, or maybe because of mine and Swords result) or Swords, but why the others? Bussing is a thing when your partner is condemned. Are you actually going to tell me you haven't considered that?

If we No Lynch today we will not lose.

If we No Lynch in the situation you think we're in, we enter Kingmaker. Go back to grade school with your math. We also gain nothing by No Lynching but me dying, another person getting poisoned, and it being that much easier for you to go full ****** and pull town down with you (and no this is not implying you're town, I won't believe for a second that you are town with how you're acting).

If we lynched Kary and he flipped mafia, we still have at least 2 mafia left, right?

Not at least. Exactly 2.

8 today, lynch kary flip mafia
6 Day 7, lynch someone flip mafia
4 Day 8 lylo

BEST OPTION ON DAY 4 IS NO LYNCH.

I'm just doing it ahead of the curve rather than waiting until the end. We don't have to lynch an independent. We just need to lynch mafia. That's it. The independent is right there in front of us.

Even if you truly believe Kary is mafia, you're still going to be in the same situation later. No lynch today instead of on Day 8 and we have the largest chance of victory.

And even in this wall there is still no substantiation for Kary indy.

I'd say the opposite. Kary can not be indy. Mafia would have alpha striked already if there are 3 of them. And if Kary truly wanted to help mafia he could just execute himself right now and they would WIN. The fact that he hasn't done this means he's LYING. Not only about his role, but about being indy. Why would you think for a second you can trust someone claiming scum with a guilty on them who has also been confirmed to be lying about the role he claimed in the mass-claim? What the actual **** OS?

Trusting JTB is also something you shouldn't be doing right now. Sure his handy dandy little numbers results are fun to look at, but hard facts are more conclusive and don't come from a possible scum. Get your head in the game or get out of it. Thank you.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

d4 saw the death of brb and la bat, meaning scum was brought down to either 3 or 4

j then recruited ran, bringing it up to 4 or 5

both of them then died, bringing it down to 2 or 3 if no one was recruited last night

however, since its 3 or 4, someone had to be recruited

what if kary was the one recruited and hes just baiting his lynch so another person can get recruited toNight and give the game to scum?

=/

JTB, were you given a "hint of a recruiter" or were you just told that "someone's alignment could change?"

I don't think you're making the logical jump here. You're thinking along the path that if Nabe told you that there was 4-5 scum Day 5 and after two scum lynched Nabe would subtrect 2 from both of those numbers. However, there's nothing to actually suggest that Nabe's going to strictly work like that.

I also highly doubt that scum would get two recruits.

Also, this is just my personal feeling, but I don't think Nabe would underestimate the number of scum left in your result. Seems more safe from a mod PoV to overestimate than to underestimate.

 

[Kantrip]

I don't believe that Ran recruited J, rather it was the reverse. J was never "formerly Kanji," only Ran was formerly "TownRise", btw.

This is exactly what happens and beliefs don't play a part of it.

The MOD confirmed to us that Ran began this game town-aligned. J got no such confirmation. This is because J started as the Pillowmaster, and Ran spent each Night thinking about who he was, just like he claimed when he was TOWN (why would he have lied to us, he thought he was TOWN). Then he switched alignments and found out his true identity as J's lover. That's just how it went down.

 

[Kantrip]

Bardull and Joker are not clear even if their roles are strictly as they claim, Ascetic and all. If scum are the ones with the poison then that doesn't even make them immune to the vig or the Inquisitor. I really do think there's a scum within the Ascetics. Overswarm also thinks this, so why the **** doesn't he want to shoot one toNight?

If we No Lynch, he loses his option to shoot without losing town the game. We can lynch our CONFIRMED SCUM KARY, and he can SHOOT SOMEONE AS WELL. So why the **** is he so paranoid that Kary is indy and we should NO LYNCH, of all things?

Because his role is a lie and he IS NOT TOWN.

Can you all please realize this for me? I won't be here toMorrow to drill it into your heads.

Overswarm needs to die, but the mafia team needs to go first.

 

[Kantrip]

JTB is it "someone can still be recruited", "someone's alignment can still change", or "someone's role can still change"?

You keep flip-flopping this around.

I have the Potential Modifier, so if it refers to role then it could be as simple as that.

Also I keep forgetting Overswarm "loses his vote if he takes a shot" which is his justification for never proving his role. Bleck.

 

[JTB]

its someone can change alignment, not recruiter. i just assumed they were one in the same and listed it as hint of recruiter (my bad)