Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[BarDulL]

That's IF he was jailed though.

 

[Kantrip]

Not asking for Ascetic purposes, but rather for the purpose of knowing if OS was targeted by the poison, as his theory assumes is true, or by a regular kill (The Inquisitor's, in this case).

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Raz was a jailkeeper. Nabe won't let me know for sure rather or not jailers protect from poison of not, stating that he cannot comment on any roles that may or may not be in this game. When asked about what the standard is, he stated that it's up to mod interpretation.

Nabe did tell me though that he places a strong emphasis on what would "logically occur." You guys can ask him the same sorts of questions that I have been asking him if you want confirmation of this yourselves.

 

[Kantrip]

I would logically say that 'Kill's of all kinds could be prevented by a Jailer, but that's my interpretation.

So what we're saying is that either scenario is possible. So it's possible OS is scum. Then I look at his play and connection to Kary and prioritize that possibility. So yes, I've considered all the options and I'm still liking this one.

 

[BarDulL]

I remember reading earlier that Chuckie (our poison doctor) was not entirely too fond of the OS slot upon the coming and ending of N1. Think Sword brought it up, can't remember. The implication here is that Chuckie probably didn't heal OS, but don't quote me on it because my memories of D1 are gone with the wind.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Also @ OS: What makes you think that Ran was the only person that could be turned into that role though? He didn't start out as Catherine, he was converted into that role.

I kinda agree with you about JTB though. We know that his role is at least somewhat legit. If he was mafia and mafia was limited to only three people, then he would have known, as mafia, that there were extra indies about.

 

[BarDulL]

Also @ OS: What makes you think that Ran was the only person that could be turned into that role though? He didn't start out as Catherine, he was converted into that role.

I kinda agree with you about JTB though. We know that his role is at least somewhat legit. If he was mafia and mafia was limited to only three people, then he would have known, as mafia, that there were extra indies about.

I'm not sold on JTB at all and he needs to be checked out. Literally sits on his hands and does nothing but claims a role which can be easily faked by scum.

 

[Kantrip]

Swords, Bardull, and Joker claim Ascetic?

Wait Swords you're Ascetic?

Huh. Well that is an interesting development.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

"easily faked as scum"

Well, the thing is is that if JTB is mafia, then he was able to predict the existence of another indy fraction, which more or less shows us that his role is legit. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that he's town, but it helps.

JTB is known for "hand sitting" in pretty much every game he's in. No offense to JTB because he's a cool guy, but he's generally policy lynch material.

But yes, just the sheer amount of hand sitting that he has been doing this game is ridiculous, and I won't be letting him off the hook completely for it.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Yes I'm ascetic.I thought that you already knew this.

What does that change for you?

 

[BarDulL]

I can't be bothered with amazing English atm on the premise that I'm tired, but for the sake of everything's sake, was what I said really not proper English? 'As' sounds better but 'by' feels appropriate regardless.

 

[BarDulL]

On that note, I'm going to sleep. Nighty night.

 

[Kantrip]

What that changes is that I can no longer assume you're next in line to die and your claim means people won't look at you funny for being alive all game. It just got a little more dangerous to pretend like you're clear. It doesn't change anything in my reads or how I think things should go, but it does mean that mafia has to target differently than I anticipated, which COULD change my choice of target toNight.

(assuming my action would go through, asked the MOD about this and seeing if he'll give me anything)

 

[Kantrip]

"A Poisoner can target a player to kill them. However, this kill will take place at the end of the next Night. Thus, the poisoned player can get one more Day and Night of actions out. The advantage to this is that a kill via poison cannot be stopped, except by the fairly rare Poison Doctor. "

Interesting to note from the mafiascum wiki. Not only does it make it sound like poison can't be prevented by anything but a poison doctor (meaning OS was not poisoned N1, but instead targeted with a regular kill), but it also states I could get another Night of actions.

Unfortunately, however, Nabe couldn't tell me how poison resolves in the event that it exists in this game.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

ok. i see that people still want to kill me. i'm ok with that.

on the other hand it would be much simpler if we all agreed that OS is definitely indy, and as such kill him or a townie.

that would be great.

i mean either way i'm getting out of this game, but hell. i'd rather execute someone tbh

 

[BarDulL]

 

[Circus]

Going to have to go at this in chunks due to the size of some of OS's posts.

I targeted Kantrip. Nabe gave me my results, and in the same post he told me that I received a note saying that "Kary is mafia." The note did not come in a separate PM. The note specifically said that Kary is mafia.

Quoting for reference.

PJB you should tell us who you think Kary's scummates are instead of being super defensive. :|

You should also do this.

Still think Kantrip is in J's Indy faction too, but it's kind of a moot point since the mafia already sealed his fate.

Why? If Kantrip is indy, we can agree he's apart of J's faction, yes? If that's the case, we can also agree that he would likely be the last remaining member of that faction, yes? And he has been told that he has been targeted with an action last Night that likely guarantees he will be dead by toMorrow, meaning that his faction is already screwed. Does Kantrip's play so far toDay line up with that of a player who doesn't have any hope of winning?

ok. spent so long thinking about this. here's how this goes down. i'm

Shadowy Shadow Skipdiddly-do Mitsuru of Shadows, Shadow Ice-Executioner


toDay i'm kingmaker


i'm tired of this game.

mafia, would you like to win right now? if so please vote swords. this obviously involves trusting me, so ehh.

i think that's everything?

Calling this bluff now—Kary either doesn't have this ability or was lying about his willingness to throw the game for himself right now, because he could have voted for himself and executed himself by now. If this were truly his role, then he knows that what he's doing here would cause him to lose the game no matter what. If he were really just "tired of this game," then he would have taken himself out of it by now. Executing Swords, assuming Swords is town, would result in the same thing as executing himself, from an indy perspective.

If the scum team could have alpha'd him by now, they would have. Either Kary is mafia, as Swords' results indicate, or at least one of the players already voting for him by now is mafia, or some combination of the two.

My result said that you're mafia Kary, but you're claiming indy.

If you're telling the truth, then town has lost this game. We need to quick lynch you. I can't risk that you're lying.

Swords, what made you think that Kary's claim could potentially be true here, given the fact that you apparently have confirmation from the Mod that what Kary claimed is false?

 

[BarDulL]

I'm thinking PJB and JTB by PoE mostly. JTB being fat null and PJB playing super defensive all game but not trying to go out of his way to figure out who the big bad mafia are. There just seems to be a distinct lack of scum hunting intent in his posts and runs more along the lines of self preservation.

 

[BarDulL]

In the hypothetical scenario that PJB/JTB aren't scum with Kary, my hardbody list goes to OS next, then Circus/Kantrip, then Sword.

I do agree with you though that Sword's response there didn't make sense, 'cause he had confirmation from Kantrip's role that Kary was definitely mafia aligned. Didn't really know what to make of it.

 

[Kantrip]

We could use one of Swords/Circus to check Joker's Ascetic claim and the other to target me as I check one of JTB/OS.

Thoughts?

 

[Circus]

Okay I haven't read anything in depth here so if I'm missing anything let me know.

-follows up with wall of speculation on **** he hasn't read in-depth-

I've been V/LA because my girlfriend's cousin has gone missing and her husband was recently aggressive and violent towards her after divorce was discussed and, after she was declared missing, he tried to call off the search. Cops found a ping of her phone in West Virginia, she lives in southern Ohio. So, stressful. She recently contacted someone (we believe) and may be in hiding from her current husband.

Welp, this kind of blew my mind just now, and I'd be remiss if I didn't stop to wish you, your girlfriend and her family luck with this.

The christmas present thing has been crap. We've got a grand total of how many scum now? Do they fit into the trees? Not exactly. We don't know how many mafia exist or currently exist.

I'm pretty sure you were one of the only people actually operating under the belief that the present distribution definitely had to do with alignment and not just specific game flavor (I believe I mentioned back on D1 or D2 or whatever that I thought it was just as likely that one tree could be the Persona 3 tree and the other could be the Persona 4 tree. I haven't bothered to look up the roles we've seen flip to try to corroborate this idea because, really, who cares?)

1) Kantrip was revived by an independent. He's probably going to ****ing be independent. JUST FYI. If you're one of those people that will be an idiot and counter "he was revived by an independent, probably not in town's best interests" with "but he lynched J", go read the day again. He was against the J lynch the entire time until it came down to J being the obvious lynch. Being independent he knew mafia and town together could go on the lynch so he joined on out of inevitability.

As I recall, Kantrip's vote on J was the vote that swung the Day toward him. J and I each had the same number of votes on us, I'm pretty sure, before Kantrip finally voted for J at the end of the Day. That doesn't look like expected scum distancing to me.

And I'll say the same thing to you as I did to PJB, does Kantrip's play toDay really look to you like the play of a dead man walking?

2) Kary was given a mafia result and claimed independent

This is screwy. Either Kantrip's ability is a lie and just sends false information (possible, but why would Kantrip condemn himself in this manner?) or Kary is lying about his role or Sworddancer is lying about what was received or independent is simply given the same value as mafia to his investigation. We don't really know. It doesn't matter.

Agreed, although the "Independents may just show up 'Mafia'" option is very unlikely. It is more likely that either Kary is lying (yeah), Swords' is lying (ehhh...) or Kantrip's role is unreliable (ehhh...).

3) Sworddancer, Bardull, and PJB have all claimed Ascetic. Hint: There is mafia, at least one, amongst those three.

Agreed.

4) Kary's claimed role is SKIP DIDDLY-DO. Think about that for a second. That is not a real role. -_-;;

No ****.

Let's say Kary is an independent, as this is most likely the most damaging. For the purposes of math, assuming Kantrip is town.

If there are 4 mafia, 3 town, and 1 independent... mafia don't need to lynch town. They could just lynch Kary with impunity and win outright with town helping them. If that's the case, game over unless there's some shenanigans. Kantrip's already poisoned.

This is absolutely not an option. If there were 4 mafia, the game would be over right now.

If there are 3 mafia, 4 town, and 1 independent, Kary is kingmaker today and decides who wins.

Getting warmer.

In both situations the best option for town is a No Lynch.

And then suddenly, all of my wat.

I do not believe in the slightest that Kary is giving up and deciding to give the win to mafia. That smells like a trap to the mafia.

The only reason Kary would do this is to incite mafia to reveal themselves to "alpha" strike, making it down to 3 mafia 3 town and 1 indie with Kantrip. I strongly believe this to be a bad idea for mafia to do. No one "gives up the game" and just says "okay you win" and throws the game; they'd get banned from DGames for doing pulling stunts like that. Even when a scum member gets bussed they don't get upset and say "so and so is mafia, **** this game".

Kary's still got a chance to win and is using this situation for it.

Nightmare scenarios for both town and mafia involve

Smells like Kary IS mafia. You seem to be saying here that "KaryIndy must have an option here that we don't see and is gambiting." What I would argue is that it's more likely that Kary is caught Mafia and is using a clearly fake sounding (you admitted this yourself) Indy claim to go for the "yeah, you could lynch me, but I'm not your main priority" strategy. It's not like he would be the first mafioso to try this, if this is the case. Try to throw town off of you in the final days and hope they land on a fellow townie instead.

A) Kantrip being a passive recruiter. Kantrip SPECIFICALLY ASKED Circus to target him last Night. Why? This wouldn't clear him in any way, shape, or form. But he asked it very specifically after believing Circus was mafia the entire time (again, why would he trust Circus to do this as town to help his slot?).

Who DID hit Kantrip?

Sworddancer and the poisoner.

Sworddancer claims Ascetic. He wouldn't be recruited (I believe anyway, to be honest its a mod judgement call and I side with the ascetic modifier).

Meaning the poisoner was recruited and is no longer mafia.

Just when I thought I didn't have any wat left.

Don't get me wrong, I was paranoid of Kantrip last Night too, but this is just ridiculous.

Inquisitor, Lover recruiter, and a revived passive recruiter in one game? Come on.

B) Kary is attempting to recruit someone today and be sneaky about it.

"Oh I give up, go ahead and win mafia just lynch swords"? I doubt the authenticity of this. Never trust a silver platter.

If it IS a silver platter? It'll be a silver platter toMorrow.

I believe both of these things are the case.

Both? Either one of those options being true would have me throwing dumpsters' worth of salt in post-game. What's your actual evidence for this, OS?

You think that we had an Inquisitor who recruits players that can then also continue recruiting after his death, in addition to a Lovers recruiter who can not only recruit a Lover, but recruit a dead player into its faction through revival, and then that player can also passively recruit any player who targets them?

How is all of that more likely than Kary simply being mafia and trying to pull a hail mary right now?

Today, we lynch no one. Period. This is the best course of action. We eliminate Kantrip, who is likely an independent, and then we have the game in a stronger numerical position and Kary doesn't get to recruit anyone and Kantrip doesn't recruit anyone (else).

You're actually arguing for a No Lynch right now.

Like, you're actually doing it.

Day 7:

Circus
Overswarm
Sworddancer.
Private-Joker Brown
BarDulL
JTB
Kary

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

This day we have to lynch Mafia. If we lynch Kary toDay or toMorrow, mafia win by default unless they have a recruit among them through numbers alone.. I do not believe Kary or Kantrip can actively recruit in a normal fashion. J and BRB couldn't, I don't see why they could either, and as long as we do not play into Kary or Kantrip's hands then we will win because they cannot recruit.

This is the "judgement call" day. There's no ifs and or buts around it. We simply have to have a good old fashioned "kill mafia" day, and it'll happen because if I'm right about Kary then Kary will be super happy about surviving another phase even if Kary can't get the recruit toDay. If I'm wrong, well, town loses the moment Kary and Kantrip die and Kantrip is already gone tonight.

This is assuming that Kary is actually Indy, which, again, is looking a whole lot less likely than Kary just being mafia. You yourself called Kary's claimed role fake looking.

Your plan also involves banking on the presumed IndyKary siding with us in endgame, which is insane. If he's actually Indy, then he just offered the game to mafia, because the mafia is presumably closer to winning at this point. Why would Kary's stance on this change toMorrow, with no mafia members lynched?

My personal vote is PJB. I doubt this will change by tomorrow. My other option would probably be Bardull, but it is distant to PJB. Of all the ascetics, Swords is the one I trust most assuming Swords is actually ascetic.

Great case, man.

I wish you'd put half as much effort into scum hunting as you do into setup examination. You're gamemod to your core.

But OS, why leave Kary alive? What if Kary is actually mafia? What if Kary can just normally recruit?

If Kary can normally recruit, we lose. Done, game over, don't even worry about it. It'd mean that someone else in the game is already recruited if not more.

If Kary is actually mafia, claiming independent is not in mafia's best interests. You get no brownie points for being on that lynch and the open statement of "hey mafia let's alpha strike with this cool ability" isn't a guarantee, it's a trap. If it was a guarantee they'd just do it.

Kary was caught with a guilty on him and made a move. If he could successfully convince us that he's independent rather than mafia (which seems to have worked on you), then he could get someone else lynched toDay—potentially a townie—which could be game-winning for him if he's mafia. If we assume 3 mafia at this point (can't be more, unlikely to be less), then they win with one more lynch. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Kary could be trying to lazily hail mary for a victory here, especially if he's truly "tired of this game." Rather than make a smart play and have some buddies bus him and try all this again on D7, he tried throwing the town off of himself in hopes that they'd swarm something that he actually wanted to lynch.

I'm just cutting this off here because the rest of this post just continues to revisit the same points based on far-fetched speculation.

Rather than dissect the rest of the posts following this one, I'm just going to lay this out.

There are 3 votes on Kary. If what OS fears (3-man mafia alpha striking Kary) were possible, they would have done it by now. OS's assertion that Kary is indy is false. Kary is mafia, and has 2 buddies, one of which, I would expect, is probably already bussing him.

OS, if Kary is Indy and there are still 3 mafiosi separate from him, then at least TWO of the players currently voting for Kary have to be mafia in order for your theory to be correct, otherwise Kary would have already been alpha'd by now. By your own theory, Kantrip obviously can't be mafia. So are Swords and Bardull both mafia? Just waiting for one more townie to vote for Kary so they can have their remaining buddy hammer him? Do you think that's the most likely scenario at play here?

Vote: Kary

Hammer when ready as far as I'm concerned. The world's ending on Friday anyway, and I'd like to see at least this flip before that happens. One damn dead mafioso in this game and I can die happy.

@Kantrip: Sounds good to me. I can target you toNight and we can have Swords on PJB to see if his claim is real. I'd vote for you investigating OS toNight if you're taking requests.

 

[Kantrip]

Overswarm wants Joker dead. I don't see any strong opposition to this. Why doesn't OS just shoot Joker (if Kary flips mafia)?

If Joker is alive toMorrow then OS dies. That way I could investigate JTB and we'd clear up two question marks. As much as I like the plan, I can't be 100% that you're town and this plan would let me have both Swords AND you on me so that the result is reliable.

 

[Kantrip]

Option One

Overswarm shoots Joker
Kantrip Investigates JTB
Sworddancer. Targets Kantrip
Circus Targets Kantrip

[collapse=Pros and Cons]We force Overswarm to confirm his role to us or he dies by getting him to target a player everyone (including him) is fine with dying. We can afford Joker to flip town if Kary flips mafia because we have MyLo numbers. With both Swords and Circus on Kantrip, we get the most reliable and fool-proof result on JTB. An obvious con is how hard this falls through if poison kicks in before Kantrip can get a result, which is possible.[/collapse]

Option Two

Overswarm shoots no one or Joker
Kantrip Investigates Overswarm or JTB
Sworddancer. Targets Kantrip
Circus Targets Joker

[collapse=Pros and Cons]This option is safer in the case that I don't, in fact, get another Night of results. Circus tries to verify Joker's Ascetic modifier while Swords uses his action to try to get a result on Overswarm or JTB from me. Overswarm can either shoot Joker or nobody. A drawback to this is that Swords or Circus, as scum, could lie about what they find out to throw things off and we would be screwed.[/collapse]

Personally I'd like OS to shoot Joker either way, but I'd like thoughts on which option is better.

 

[Overswarm]

I can't shoot joker because if I shoot anyone I lose my vote for the next day, which doesn't help us.

PJB and Circus or Bardull are the remaining scum team, of this I'm pretty sure.

LOOK AT ALL THE PEOPLE ON THIS LYNCH

It is literally EVERYONE BUT ME.

Even Kary himself wants to be lynched.

So explain to me how mafia and town BOTH aren't on this lynch. Explain that to me.

What happens when Kary flips independent? If there's 3 mafia left after, it's game over.

Sworddancer has been logical, if not willfully ignoring the threats the game has presented us on more than one occasion. JTB absent (town) and Kantrip will flip so who cares if he's scum/indie/town at the moment.

Who does that leave?

PJB, Bardull, Circus.

All three are belligerently going for the Kary lynch. All of the above save for an inactive JTB.

I want Kary dead, I do. But for the past few phases we've been wondering if it's lylo or not and it has been... just not in the way we thought. Kary and Kantrip will both flip independent and if they do, the only way this game will not be over is if Kary was a recruited mafia member.

Lynching Kary is a guaranteed loss for town. If we NO LYNCH then we suffer no possible loss and town will have the advantage. I'd be down to lynch PJB today, but guess what?

You won't get the votes. Because it's not possible. Go ahead, pile 'em on. You couldn't hammer if you wanted to without two alignments working together, because mafia have the advantage and the only way they can win is with town's help which they are getting.

What kind of idiot sees me pointing this out and doesn't count on his fingers and toes and realize I'm telling the truth, I don't know. But there's an awful lot of votes placed immediately on Kary.

 

[Overswarm]

Wait

Kary doesn't have to be recruited mafia for there to be 2-3 scum left post flip

Kary could straight up be mafia and mafia just don't know it. If that's the case though, town should have lost a while ago.

 

[Overswarm]

Sworddancer, was your asceticism ever proven?

 

[Overswarm]

Look, the game is over if we lynch Kary.

On the off chance it isn't then we have to worry that Kary or Kantrip has recruited someone.

Given that Kantrip's ability worked on an Ascetic simply because it wasn't targeted, this shows that Ascetics can actually be recruited if there is a passive means of communication.

I do not want to deal with three ascetics, myself, circus, and JTB all arguing over who is mafia with the possibility of any of them being indy. Kary has to flip indy for the math to work out, JTB said that someone's alignment can still change (and thus, we have an indie).

Before the day ends if it IS a Kary lynch, I want reads from absolutely everyone as to who is mafia.

Sworddancer, use your ability on me tonight. When I'm poisoned I can use my killing ability.

If Kary dies tonight and Kantrip dies tonight

JTB
Circus
Myself
Sworddancer
PJB
Bardull

3 ascetics, 3 non-ascetics, only two that can be poisoned if Sworddancer watches me (because then I'd just kill someone after being poisoned since the vote loss won't really matter then).

If somehow the game didn't end already at that point, mafia's poisoner will only have two total "safe" targets.

I really need to know if Kantrip is recruited mafia or not.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Oh boy OS, I sure do hope that the mafia doesn't just alpha indie Kary or anything.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

About the recruit: We don't actually know anything about the nature of this recruit. All JTB told us is that someones alignment could change. We don't know rather or that alignment change is guaranteed or not, or how it would even take place. It could be a mafia yak that takes place after death. I mean, Nabe has done this before, so I wouldn't entirely doubt it.

But at the same time it could be something entirely different. We don't know.

JTB stating that there was potential for someone's alignment to change is indeed somewhat frightening, but going into a wild mass guessing spree and then actually making decisions based off of these guesses is not the logical response to this.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Btw OS I thought that you believed that there were two indies plus only two mafia left? What's up with there being three mafia now? Is it no longer convenient for you to believe that there are two mafia?

 

[Overswarm]

Btw OS I thought that you believed that there were two indies plus only two mafia left? What's up with there being three mafia now? Is it no longer convenient for you to believe that there are two mafia?

Belief does not indicate certainty. Only a fool sticks to one perception of events.

If the only thing we did is say "this is most likely" and wait to be proven right or wrong before assessing other possibilities we wouldn't get very far.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

How is that any different from what you're doing? You're making huge leaps in speculation and want us to act off of them. Why haven't you considered at all that there are only three mafia? You seem to just brush over the idea and then go back to paranoia speculation of JTB's results.

OS if Circus and PJB are scum together with BarDull then why didn't they just alpha?

@Kantrip: I'm liking option 2 the most. Gets us the most diversity with Night actions. Once Kary flips mafia you'll know that I'm not scum (if I was scum then I would have just lied about Kary being mafia) and I'm willing to trust Circus. Not really liking OS shooting though. Do like getting an investigation on him though. He's not viewing things from a town PoV and we need to solve the mystery of the Night one actions already.

 

[Overswarm]

Something is up with today and I don't know what it is, but the only thing I can think of is someone being recruited by either Kantrip or Kary.

If Kantrip flips indy, Sworddancer and the poisoner are both potential recruits from any sort of passive action. Kantrip specifically asked Circus to use his ability on him though, so if one does exist it is possible ascetics aren't affected or Kantrip himself just doesn't know. We'll find out from his flip.

If Kary flips indy, then I've got no clue. Kary basically requested his own lynch today with his actions, but not until after deliberately going after Sworddancer. He went after others after but they didn't feel as genuine; it felt like Kary really did want to lynch Sworddancer specifically or at least make us think he did.

okay logic time

if we make the assumption that ascetics CANNOT be recruited, that means bardull, sworddancer, and PJB are "clean" from being independent recruits

if we make the assumption that there are currently only Kantrip and/or Kary as independents and all recruits from this point forward are a result of their actions

Kantrip recruits would occur from Sworddancer or the poisoner. Lynching Sworddancer or the Poisoner would tell the possibility of independent alignment for the other.

Kary independents would have to be between myself, Circus, and JTB.

Given this scenario the only way we could lynch a mafia-recruited independent is if mafia members didn't trust their own.

I don't really see how town can win this game. Seems to be between mafia and independents.

 

[Overswarm]

How is that any different from what you're doing? You're making huge leaps in speculation and want us to act off of them. Why haven't you considered at all that there are only three mafia? You seem to just brush over the idea and then go back to paranoia speculation of JTB's results.

OS if Circus and PJB are scum together with BarDull then why didn't they just alpha?

I think scum is rushing a lynch right now. I just don't think they feel they are in a position to "alpha strike" in an obvious manner because if it turns out there's something in this game that is unknown it would cause them to lose. I'd imagine Circus going L-1 on Kary is a sign that PJB will hammer soon though. JTB isn't even around to vote so the only reason Circus would vote is to get the hammer. It's not gonna be me, so it has to be with PJB in mind.

Think of it from a mafia perspective.

Kary gets noted as "mafia" by you, based on Kantrip's ability.

Mafia poisoner got the same note.

Two possibilities: note was telling the truth or the note was a lie. Mafia know themselves.

If it's telling the truth Kary can't be lynched.

Given that Kary can be lynched it means that either one of the mafia is actually an independent voting with town to kill a mafia member or...

The note was a lie, and Kary is independent. Which is the simplest explanation given how many people are supporting this lynch. I'm literally the only one that isn't. Given JTB's results we know that Kary has been independent for a while now, and mafia just found out. This is why mafia have not won yet.

By lynching Kary you are literally throwing this game away.

You've answered it yourself. "Why don't they just alpha"?

I'm not goign to vote for Kary.

Kary won't vote for Kary.

That leaves:

SDancer
JTB
Circus
PJB
Bardull

(with a kantrip vote already on there)

Let's discoutn you Swords, since you know your alignment.

JTB, Circus, PJB, Bardull

What three are going to be voting for Kary?

PJB came in and expressed interest in the lynch immediately
Bardull voted immediately
Circus voted immediately

Mafia ARE pushing for a lynch.

@Kantrip: I'm liking option 2 the most. Gets us the most diversity with Night actions. Once Kary flips mafia you'll know that I'm not scum (if I was scum then I would have just lied about Kary being mafia) and I'm willing to trust Circus. Not really liking OS shooting though. Do like getting an investigation on him though. He's not viewing things from a town PoV and we need to solve the mystery of the Night one actions already.

Go for it. Kary won't flip mafia though because if Kary flipped mafia it would mean that scum already had a numbers advantage.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS I give up on you. I'm going to go back to rereading now.

 

[Overswarm]

OS I give up on you. I'm going to go back to rereading now.

What do you think Kary's going to flip? You know it's independent. Whatever message you received is not true and you know it isn't because everyone in the game is willing to lynch Kary except for me! We haven't had a single mafia member flip yet! They have to be on the lynch!

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'm sorry but I'm failing to make the connection. Everyone but you supports the lynch = Kary is going to flip indie. Why?

 

[Overswarm]

I'm sorry but I'm failing to make the connection. Everyone but you supports the lynch = Kary is going to flip indie. Why?

Kantrip is flipping today. He'll flip town or independent.

If Kary is lynched, he's not gonna flip town. If he flips mafia, what does that mean?

That means that either

A) he's being bussed by his entire scum team

or

B) Kary and I are the only two mafia members and I'm desperately trying to save him


But then we have JTB's claim. 3-4 scum left.

Could be B if Kantrip is independent and both myself and Kary are mafia. But you don't believe that and you know it's not a real possibility.

So if I'm actually town trying to prevent the game from ending this phase (which it WILL), who are the other 3-4 scum?

Kantrip is a possibility. We'll see after the day ends which a No Lynch would provide without ending the game.

Kary is a definite and can be lynched after we kill mafia. If Kantrip flips town, there are at least TWO other scum.

EVERY PLAYER other than myself and Kary are going for a lynch. The game is still going and will continue to do so because Kary is an independent with the ability to recruit somehow.

If we lynch Kary we get a Pyrrhic victory. We celebrate because we lynched an indie, then the rest of us get endgamed.

All this is is stalling so that we can lynch mafia. If I thought it was a good idea I'd push for PJB's lynch toDay, but we already know who was poisoned and it wasn't Kary. Since Kary wasn't poisoned we have a free phase. Kantrip will die and we'll see his flip. If he flips town, then we can run numbers differently.


No one should be voting until we're all in agreement and ready to kill someone immediately all game long. This prevents goofy alpha strikes and it prevents false scenarios.

If Kantrip and Kary are independent and there's 2 mafia left (to fit JTB's claim), it's pretty likely that you, kantrip, and bardull's votes have every alignment there. Circus could be town just being convinced, but by doing so he opens up the possibility of scum PJB hammering for a mafia victory when he gets back.

I can't pretend to know exactly what scum's plan is. They haven't lost anyone, we don't know their abilities beyond poison, and they know that someone can still be recruited. It's entirely possible they're just trying to make sure Kary dies by someone else's hand in case it's a bomb recruit or some other thing, couldn't tell you.

All I know is that lynching Kary will result in the end of the game and he will not flip mafia. The numbers do not allow it.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Alright OS, now run those numbers again under the assumption that there are no indies and only three mafia left, and tell me how that works out.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

unvote

Actually don't want anyone to hammer yet. Kary's still the lynch toDay.

@Circus & BarDull: Who do you two believe to be Kary's scummates?