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Tree Stump Mafia - OVER! Who lived happily ever after in the forest?

D

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@HeatStroke: He should be an lower priority. I say let's go after Omis.

Like I promise, will give thoughts on the situation on all non-stumped players tomorrow.
 

mentosman8

BRoomer
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Ok, Brockin being stumped and town is going to have me lookin back through a bit tomorrow. We do have to remember at this point, we're back to 10 days till the deadline. One more mis-stump and it's mylo. I'm debating whether our best course of action is to focus on getting another stump candidate, or focusing on a straight up lynch candidate. Both could potentially end up in the same situation, but I want to think about the differences between the two paths and see if I can come up with a benefit of one over the other.
 

SummonerAU

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Vote: Mentos

I got you Cello. The idea being that Mentos just said we could do 'x' or 'y' but I DUNNO MAAAN.

@Mentos: Why even post that if you haven't made up your mind?
 

mentosman8

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So people could see my line of thought. Right now, I would be leaning toward looking for another stump, but I need to think about the plusses and minuses of each to be sure. I would have waited till I had my chance to look back with Brockin as townie and think about it, but since I'm tired and prolly gonna fall asleep before too long I felt I should let people know where my minds at. Also, it was important to point out that another mis-stump makes it mylo. It's a lot easier to forget this fact in a game like this. The better question is, why not post it before I've made up my mind? Mafia is a game where we benefit most from getting our thought processes out there and following the progression of those thoughts. Whether it's a course of action like this, or a potential lynch in a normal game. I like to let people know where I stand throughout, whether I've made up my mind or not, because I don't see any reason not to. Would you rather me not post? Alongside this, by bringing up the mylo fact and our possibilities, it might cause others to think of the situation and give their opinions, which both gives us a chance to see something about them, and see multiple viewpoints.

Now, my question to you Summoner: Why so rapidly jump on with Cello? Yes, he's clear, and yes I think he generally gets good reads, however your rapid response seems to be agreeing with reasoning that wasn't even posted. It seems a bit too wagon happy for me.
 

Cello_Marl

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Mentos, the only reason I supported you at all was Today. I'm going to just ignore this game for about 24~30 or so hours to clear my head, and reread the whole thing with a fresh mindset.

Whatever happens though, DO NOT LYNCH ANYONE. Seriously.
 

SummonerAU

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rapidly jump on Cello? I've been with Cello well before he was cleared. Just a heads up Mentos.

1) You still haven't said what you'd want to do.
2) You could have waited a day to decide and then post that
3) You jump straight at me even though I have said several times I'm backing Cello, before he was cleared no doubt. Cool paying attention.
4) You say that you like to give people your thought processes and yet you didn't list any pros/cons for each course of action.
5) Too wagon happy? Okay, so the first real vote on someone is too wagon-y for you. Sure man.
There are several reason why your shouldn't have posted that as town.
1) Any scum that were even thinking of pushing for another stumping are now aware that everyone paying attention will know it's mylo and that pushing for another will draw attention.
2) You're giving scum a map on what you're going to do

another interesting thing, you say you didn't have time to make up your mind, but you had enough time to write up that second post defending your actions and then added an 'attack' at me all in the time of 30 minutes.

I dunno man, seems like a pretty bad post to me.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Mentos, why even mentioning a lynch?
if we stump another TWO town it's 4 Vs 3.

not liking mentos at all

@mentos, who would be the 3-man scum team?
@SSBF & tHe-Man, thoughts on mentos?
@cello, still thinking the same about SSBF?
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
The Paprika Killer said:
@SSBF & tHe-Man, thoughts on mentos?
I see him as an possible pro-town player here. I really did like most of his posts, but I also didn't like his somewhat buddying on Cello Marl. I currently give him an town player read.

Now I'd like to ask everyone this question:

Who would you want to stump/lynch next?
 

mentosman8

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rapidly jump on Cello? I've been with Cello well before he was cleared. Just a heads up Mentos.

1) You still haven't said what you'd want to do.
2) You could have waited a day to decide and then post that
3) You jump straight at me even though I have said several times I'm backing Cello, before he was cleared no doubt. Cool paying attention.
4) You say that you like to give people your thought processes and yet you didn't list any pros/cons for each course of action.
5) Too wagon happy? Okay, so the first real vote on someone is too wagon-y for you. Sure man.
There are several reason why your shouldn't have posted that as town.
1) Any scum that were even thinking of pushing for another stumping are now aware that everyone paying attention will know it's mylo and that pushing for another will draw attention.
2) You're giving scum a map on what you're going to do

another interesting thing, you say you didn't have time to make up your mind, but you had enough time to write up that second post defending your actions and then added an 'attack' at me all in the time of 30 minutes.

I dunno man, seems like a pretty bad post to me.
1. No way, if you paid attention I said I wanted to look back through the game a bit with Brockin as town, and that I was tired and going to sleep. Guess who just woke up?
2. As I said, I would rather make the post and get the thought out there than wait till I've made up a full conclusion on the pros and cons than wait and not post anything.
3. I didn't jump on you for backing Cello. I jumped on you because Cello had said to look for another stump, and after the virtual vote you proceeded to put a lynch vote on me. The other part was that the phrase following where you gave your reasoning sounded like an agreement, not your own reasoning, but there was no reason given beforehand to be agreeing with.
4. No, I didn't post any +/-, because I really hadn't seen any major differences between the two yet. They're both options that can potentially end us up in different spots, but can also end up in the same spot. I needed time to run the numbers to decide which course of action is better.
5. The way your vote was mad WAS a wagon based on the extremely quick proximity to Cello's post.

As for your reasons not to post that as town?
1. Not really. First of all, a cleared stump has already stated support of finding another stump. Secondly, looking at who we have left, there's no way we have a group of 3 scum where not one realized that 6v3 is one townie removed from mylo. Not to mention if I was scum I would have no reason to post that in the thread instead of messaging my buddies, especially since there ARE a couple players in the game I'm unfamiliar with who may not have noticed the closeness to mylo.
2. ... So what? Once again, if I was scum that would benefit me absolutely none. This point only works if I am in fact a townie, A, and B, how does it stand as a detriment to town to point out that we have options.

Mentos, why even mentioning a lynch?
if we stump another TWO town it's 4 Vs 3.

not liking mentos at all

@mentos, who would be the 3-man scum team?
@SSBF & tHe-Man, thoughts on mentos?
@cello, still thinking the same about SSBF?
To the first part, yeah, if we stump another two town it's lylo. Which means, unless we don't debate the stump much, we're left with an extremely shortened deadline to find a lynch candidate, or else we lose. There is no way with one standard deadline left we should debate and decide on TWO more stumps if the first one comes up town, because we will then be scrambling for a must be right lynch.

To the @mentos part, if I knew that the game would be over. It's hard to tell when we have 2 players way behind(the-man, pierre), and one who is still in the process of catching up after replacing(nick). That's a third of the potential scum who have not commented whatsoever on current events. Makes it a lot more difficult to judge when there's a large percentage of players not up to speed and posting.

Also, to the stump or lynch I was talking about last night, I slept on it and thought about it while getting lunch today, and there is no better choice between the two. Both of them will end up at the same point: either the person we target is scum and gets lynched/refuses stumping and gets lynched. If they're town and were about to be lynched, they would stump and reset votes, potentially leaving us with no time to decide on a lynch and nl'ing. If we go for the stump the only difference is no votes to reset. I thought there would be some kind of advantages to each, but really they end up in the exact same situation either way.

I would also like to pose a question to SSBF: Before Brockin's stump, you were defending him saying he risked a modkill/it was against the rules/etc. Firstly, was that HIS reason for not posting the logs? If not, why defend him using a point that he hadn't made? Secondly, do you remember the rules initially had a "hydras are allowed to post their logs. Unfortunately there are no hydras in this game" rule?(I saw it quoted at some point, so despite being gone I know it's in the game somewhere that it existed. This rule was inadvertently left in, but also completely allowed hydra log posting. The overarching point is that prior to Brockin's stump, you were making a pretty strong argument in their favor, trying to nullify valid points against them, and it looked to me like trying to earn townie points.

@the-man, pierre, Omis(also hasn't given much to work with lately although not as far behind as others, but only one post over 2 lines from start of page 8 till now, page 10), Nick(who I assume is at least close to catching up by now): Who do you all think we should look at? I would like to hear from all of you because the several who aren't talking much make it much more difficult for us to judge what's going on.
 
D

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" potentially leaving us with no time to decide on a lynch"

so far the deadline has reset when people stumped. This also means it is possible to never even reach N1.


Currently not liking tHe-Man not much either, I mean they're a hydra and have managed to post nothing but "yeah we agree on brockin" since, like, friday.
 

mentosman8

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Paprika, if you've paid attention to the mod posts Xiivi has stated that stumping will no longer extend the deadline. It also hasn't moved when either Xiivi or Brockin has stumped. We have until the 8th regardless of what we do. The only time it has changed was when Heat stumped to begin with. That rule change is also why Cello stumped when he did.
 
D

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I should have remembered that. >_<

In that case we should still consider stumping our main tool, and if time allows it maybe ALSO lynch, but ONLY if we have hit scum or are very sure we will.
 

mentosman8

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I agree that's not a bad strategy, it is exactly why I pointed out a mis-stump=mylo though. It has reached caution time in the game, so we need to play it smart.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
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@Brockin: Bleh I really thought you were scum.

@Heat: Why do you think I should stump?

@SSBF: To answer your question in your last post, I'm still thinking about who I want to stump next. Right now I'm leaning towards you stumping, because I think that could potentially bring up some links to other people of you're scum. But since we already have three townies stumped, I know that we need to be really careful who we stump, so I'm not too sure. I'm going read up again to see if I can find anything else.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
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I just felt like telling someone else to stump.

Why shouldn't you stump?
Because I'm town, and having a townie stump at this point would be REALLY bad for reasons already stated.

But I'll stump if the majority of people want me to stump, although it would be a mistake.
 

Brockin

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My tunneling was caused by your lack of cooperation. I was explicit about this very thing.

Regardless, what are your thoughts?
Here are my thoughts

Starting to feel like Mentos is scum. Not really taking much of a lead of things nor has he currently shared with a small list of who he thought was scum. Only commented on me feeling that we're scum and that Cello should stump.

Nicholas is also scum, for the fact that he's lurking. He only posted once on monday and hasn't posted much since. Even when he replaced, he didn't post anything in the weekened. My better half said that this is how scum nicholas plays: by lurking.

I'm not liking Paprika for going against people who he was pretty darn sure they were town. Like with us, he never found the log issue scummy. However, as soon as the Cello stump, he then believes we're scum. Makes little sense IMO. Him going after the-man (who I'm sure paprika felt he was town) is scummy.

At the same token, I really wish for The-man to post, as I also don't want them lurking.

STILL hate Omis for parroting and not providing original case forward. All he's been doing is being interested in a cello stump (the same person he's been parroting).
 
D

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"(who I'm sure paprika felt he was town)"

source or don't mention it.
 

Brockin

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"(who I'm sure paprika felt he was town)"

source or don't mention it.
Looking back, I didn't find a single mention of 'The man' from you, but I'm assuming since you didn't mention him, that it just meant you felt he was town.

I actually find that odd, now that I think about it. You havn't mention the-man at all up to now, so I find that sudden turn (least, I felt it was sudden) to go after The-man.

Not to say that he needs to post more, though. >>;;
 

Brockin

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What do you mean by not providing original case forward?
The opposite of parroting.

All you've been doing is voicing everything that's been said, instead of voicing other stuff you find said person suspicious.
 

Nicholas1024

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Through the first 20 pages.

Installment #2:

My view of the game:
Pure awesome :p
Nicholas1024:
Self-explanatory. Seriously though, this one's for you to decide.

Town:
Cello, Roxy, Brockin:
All confirmed stumps.

Mentos:
I like how he stood by cello when everyone was going "Oh my gosh, SCUM" when he didn't initially stump after Roxy stumped. (Which admittedly, was my initial reaction as well.) The points he brought up made sense, so I'm giving him some townie credit for that.

the_man:
Ryker is just awesome. No if's, and's or but's. Most obvious town read aside from the clears.

Neutral:
The paprika killer:
He's been posting a lot, and he gets +'s for that, as I don't recall him doing that when he was scum. However, he doesn't seem to be leaving as much of a mark on the game. I'd be hard-pressed to recall his stances when compared to cello/ryker. I need to look at him more closely.

SummonerAU:
Mainly been sheeping Cello. This makes it difficult for me to get a read here. On the one hand, Cello's a fairly strong town player, and is now confirmed town. On the other hand, two of the three players Cello's pushed have turned up town, and the other one hasn't flipped yet. Rating pending pierre's flip.

swordancer:
Recently been tunneling on Brockin a good bit. Then again, I still think the stance Brockin took on the logs (and just a fair bit of his play so far) was pretty dumb, so... :urg: Closer to the scum then the town side of my radar though.

Scum:

SSBF:
Posting a lot, but just not making sense in a lot of it. This is a good example of how:
SSBF,



This lynch information is only useful if properly interpreted. More importantly, this information is gained just as effectively by forcing a stump the following Day. Are you just not reading my rules, or what? Any and all hammers not sanctioned by me by the collective will of the Town after the three scum are lined up are a sure indicator of scum. Don't argue with this. Further, given the mechanics of this game (this is very important), we DO gain something from a No Lynch in the extraordinarily unlikely scenario you suggested; three random (at worst) extra lynches. (especially after Macman is adding seven extra days from a stumping [which really should not be the case; this game is impossible for scum to win now without serious, serious error on Town's behalf])



This disgusts me. You've been touting the merits of lynching for information, but you want to lynch inactives that would yield nothing in those terms? If you're going to be wrong, be consistently wrong. What about me or my three adversaries?



I'm calling a virtual vote count because...it's not a vote count. Macman isn't going to do them, so I am.



No...it can't. If he stumps himself, he's revealed as scum and is dead. There's no clear there. If you meant that it could be a ploy to make himself seem townie, then sure. But, that's true of anything.



Do you just repeat what more experienced players have said hoping that you'll say it at the right time? Voting for yourself in a normal game and/or getting yourself lynched is stupid. The very different nature of this game greatly skews the power balance in favor of Town. Not taking advantage of it would be ****ing stupid. You've spoken several times of information lynches. Wouldn't knowing Heatstroke or my alignment be...oh, I don't know... valuable information? Why do you not wish to know at least one of our alignments? In a normal game, with 9 v 3, we'd have two mislynches. Here, we have five misstumps. Three freely available information stumps. AND WE DON'T LOSE THEIR OPINIONS EITHER. Why why why why? Don't you want to know?



This would be useless. Until I see at least one of their flips, Pierre, Brockin, and Heatstroke are the scummiest to me. I need information that can gained by their deaths. If I am wrong, then I can reevaluate my opinions on everyone that isn't Summoner or Today. (I'm allowing for error on tHe-Man, take that as you will)

Actually, I could be persuaded to have you (SSBF) stump yourself. Mostly because of these sorts of sentiments...



What? Having a person stump is the same as lynching them. It garners the same information (by virtue of "votes" on them, and we get their flip), except that we get to keep them around to talk. DON'T FEAR THE STUMP. THINKING THIS WAY AND ACCEPTING IT IS WHY WE CAN ASSUME THAT PEOPLE THAT REFUSE TO STUMP ARE SCUM.

Also, what do you think about Today? You've said that you want to lynch Summoner for my support of him. But I think Today's slot is the towniest town to ever town a town.
Pierre:
Not liking how he's the one that started a lot of the force behind Roxy stumping, but then backed off. Especially the whole reading the rules to confirming thing. Yeah, it's pointless for town to lie about, but it's equally pointless for scum to lie about. I think Roxy just forgot, especially considering how Roxy plays in general. Just all over the place in UCM. (Flipped town there, if you're wondering.) Also, his interaction with Omis is another thing of note: He pushes him here or there, but not really hard. Also, Omis pushes Pierre in the one lynch list he gave all game, but not much. Pierre's fourth on the lynch list. Now, I don't know about you guys, but as scum I'd be pretty happy if I could trade 1 scumbuddy for 4 townies. (3 mis-lynches + NK) I think they're soft-bussing. (Saying they want the other guy lynched, but not really doing much about it.)

Omis:
Lurking yay! Proponent of the Roxy wagon, but mainly for the "lying about checking the thread for the rules". Also nibbles at Brockin for the logs thing. And after Roxy stumps, pushes Cello to self-stump (seriously, a third of his posts are doing just that). However, he never really sticks his neck out, just stays lurkish and pushes a wagon here, a lynch there. Biggest stance he took all game is right here:

Quick list of who I want stumpin: Heatstroke, Brockin, Cello, Pierre.
No reasons, and those were at the top of everyone's scumdar anyway. The top 3 have already flipped town.

So, what do you guys say we lynch Omis, Pierre, and SSBF, then call it a game?

Virtual vote: Pierre

I know Omis is at the top of the scumlist, but I want Pierre's flip to help me determine summonerAU's alignment.
 
D

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@Nicholas1024: Pretty good analysis overall. I do agree with your on everything, except for Pierre The Scarecrow. Even the analysis on me was good, but I'd like more about me then a massive quote against me and me not making much sense.

Luckily, with Cello Marl off my back, I should be able to do an proper analysis on everyone who aren't stumps yet.
 

Nicholas1024

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(Note for you guys: I'll be keeping up with current events, and I'll finish with pages 21-26 tomorrow/friday)

@SSBF
Just reminds me a lot of your play in SSB mafia (I know it's still running, but you've already flipped scum there.) I'll see if I can't go dig up more examples.

Also, why don't you agree with me on Pierre? I'm curious that you said that you disagreed but didn't provide a reason about it.
 

Cello_Marl

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Joined
Nov 4, 2009
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0
I wonder if Marshy even knew what his alignment was? He came and went so fast, he didn't even...say goodbye. 88 lines about 88 scum.

...I think it's best if we assume he didn't, and don't give Nick town cred for it.

Current scummy reads are Mentos (which makes me really sad), Nicholas and SSBF, in reverse order.

This should have been obvious, but until Pierre gets either replaced or modkilled, NO ONE STUMP THEMSELVES EVEN IF YOU HIT THE MAJORITY MARK. If he is town, and someone else gets stumped too (which would mean that person is town, because scum won't stump themselves), then his mod-death would mean we lose. Incidentally, it's this very point that turned me against Mentos, but I'll explain that tomorrow.
 
D

Deleted member

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I should finally be able to dedicate a list of people who I think is town, scum, and possibly with a null read. Expect it today or tomorrow when I get the time.
 

Nicholas1024

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I wonder if Marshy even knew what his alignment was? He came and went so fast, he didn't even...say goodbye. 88 lines about 88 scum.
Do you seriously think Marshy posted anything without knowing his alignment? The time it takes to read a role PM is much less then the time it takes to read 20 pages. (Or however many there were before he posted)

...I think it's best if we assume he didn't, and don't give Nick town cred for it.
Whatever, Cello. I think that's a dumb assumption, but make it if you wish.

Current scummy reads are Mentos (which makes me really sad), Nicholas and SSBF, in reverse order.
I'm a little confused. I thought Pierre was your #1 scum?

This should have been obvious, but until Pierre gets either replaced or modkilled, NO ONE STUMP THEMSELVES EVEN IF YOU HIT THE MAJORITY MARK. If he is town, and someone else gets stumped too (which would mean that person is town, because scum won't stump themselves), then his mod-death would mean we lose. Incidentally, it's this very point that turned me against Mentos, but I'll explain that tomorrow.
Ack, I didn't realize Pierre was so close to modkill territory. *sigh* It's the TMNT kirbyoshi of treestump. :urg:

Anyway, would you please make a case against me if you're going to suspect me? (Mentos too, for that matter. SSBF, I understand.)
 

mentosman8

BRoomer
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I wonder if Marshy even knew what his alignment was? He came and went so fast, he didn't even...say goodbye. 88 lines about 88 scum.

...I think it's best if we assume he didn't, and don't give Nick town cred for it.

Current scummy reads are Mentos (which makes me really sad), Nicholas and SSBF, in reverse order.

This should have been obvious, but until Pierre gets either replaced or modkilled, NO ONE STUMP THEMSELVES EVEN IF YOU HIT THE MAJORITY MARK. If he is town, and someone else gets stumped too (which would mean that person is town, because scum won't stump themselves), then his mod-death would mean we lose. Incidentally, it's this very point that turned me against Mentos, but I'll explain that tomorrow.
Interested to hear this explanation, seeing as how I haven't pushed another stump yet, AND stated that I wanted to hear from the inactives before we make a move, I'm not sure how this will lead to a case against me. Plus the fact that I've made it very clear I want to be careful since a townie death makes it mylo.
 
D

Deleted member

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mentosman8 said:
I would also like to pose a question to SSBF: Before Brockin's stump, you were defending him saying he risked a modkill/it was against the rules/etc. Firstly, was that HIS reason for not posting the logs? If not, why defend him using a point that he hadn't made? Secondly, do you remember the rules initially had a "hydras are allowed to post their logs. Unfortunately there are no hydras in this game" rule?(I saw it quoted at some point, so despite being gone I know it's in the game somewhere that it existed. This rule was inadvertently left in, but also completely allowed hydra log posting. The overarching point is that prior to Brockin's stump, you were making a pretty strong argument in their favor, trying to nullify valid points against them, and it looked to me like trying to earn townie points.
1. Yes, the fact that it was against the rules was one of the reasons why Brockin did not want to post logs.

2. Not really, but as far as I can tell, it shouldn't really matter. The bottom line is that it's not allowed now.

Mod: If Brockin did post their logs before you declared them illegal, would you have still modkill them?
 

Cello_Marl

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About Mentos:

He agrees with stumping replacing lynching. However, he considers the possibility of lynching, at all. That's no good. Stump only is obviously better than anything else. There is nothing to consider. He should know better, in the same way that Brockin should have known the benefits of posting logs. However, unlike Brockin, he saw the benefit of logs, which makes me believe he must be able to see the benefit of stumping only. I am as sure of this as I was of Brockin, but you should be able to see the difference.

He focuses on numbers and rules rather than motives.

Spoke as though he was absolutely sure I was town, yet he still wanted me, his strongest town read, to stump. Not just desired, but based his whole early play around ensuring that it would occur.

His reasoning for questioning Brockin was bad, and cannot be corroborated at any rate. I think he just did it so he wouldn't be accused of parroting.

About Jester/Nick:

In Jester's one post, he claims that he wants to prevent lumberjacks from getting nightkills, but also claims to want to wait until Day 2 to start stumping. When asked about this, he gives no response, and instead replaces out. I think newer players as scum are much more likely to quit in this fashion (compared to town), since they don't want to drag down their teammates.

In his large post, using Chibi cat's system, many times his awarding of points seems arbitrary and contradicting. For example, I was given a -1 for being pushy, but nothing added or subtracted for essentially saying "I think [name] is town, but I want to lynch him" or for when I said I lied and he said he didn't like it at all. He also gives tHe-Man +2 points in a "quality post" in which tHe-Man said he agreed that Pierre was scummy but doesn't say why (he, in fact, never has). Further, almost all of the points added and subtracted are for me and tHe-Man.

It's as though he knew who he would be focusing on and only bothered to award points to us, especially since I got deductions for "being pushy", making a point that Nick misunderstood, requesting an extension (is that really a scummy action to you Nick?), and I was the only person to receive a deduction for a point someone else made. I ended at -3, whereas Roxy, Brockin, Omis, and SSBF were at -1. But, he couldn't exactly support my stumping if someone else had a worse score than me, could he?

Consider that his current scum reads include Pierre for pushing against Heatstroke then backing off. Where was the criticism of that early on? Also,

Nick said:
I'm a little confused. I thought Pierre was your #1 scum?
Is that why you were pushing for him? (Rhetorical)

Nick said:
Ack, I didn't realize Pierre was so close to modkill territory. *sigh* It's the TMNT kirbyoshi of treestump.
You're talking here as though you know Pierre is town.



I currently like tHe-Man, Summoner, Sworddancer and Omis for town, as well as Pierre to a lesser degree. Really though, I just want to stump everyone that isn't one of these people, starting with Mentos, Nick and SSBF. Of course, by stump, I mean get them to the point of refusal just in case Pierre gets modkilled.

@Omis: Comment on my three most recent reads.
 
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