The Post-Ultimate Mega Smash Poll -The 1,010 Vote Result Bonanza!

[Swamp Sensei]

Do you guys really still need to feed into the core problem with Smash speculation and even development and marketing to some extent (over-focus on characters) instead of trying to make things better?

Do you really need to say this in the middle of a dedicated poll thread?

This is some holier than thou behavior my dude. We're just trying to see what the community wants.

 

[SharkLord]

Do you guys really still need to feed into the core problem with Smash speculation and even development and marketing to some extent (over-focus on characters) instead of trying to make things better?

I'm sorry if this is overly confrontational or missing the point, but I really don't see the problem in surveying the most popular characters. People like fighters, they're who you play as, and so they're your vehicle for experiencing the game. As such, when people discuss what they want to be added to Smash, they'll most likely bring up someone who they wish they could play as, and so "most wanted fighters" is a valid thing to want to survey.

If you want to know people's most wanted stages or songs or gameplay changes or the like, you can easily make your own threads and polls. It's not like you're gonna get taken out back and shot for not talking about characters for a minute.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Character speculation and general data collection on popularity is also something that's just generally easier to speculate about when we're so much in the dark about the details of Smash's future. The next game could be a significant gameplay overhaul or could simply have some tweaks to what we have in Ultimate. Trying to figure the likelihood of either and the varying fan outlooks on what the next game might feel like is worthwhile, but it's also a conversation far more in the abstract and tricky to even define for debates about it, let alone coming to a consensus about fan views.

Characters, whether fairly or not, have become the backbone of speculation because they're much more defined to fans and the discussion is something that's had 20 plus years of talk/arguments to build upon. It's like the difference between hypothetical future games based on sales charts/previous entries and hypothetical future games based on the philosophies of a company's directors/designers; one simply lends itself to easier discussion.

 

[MasterWarlord]

I'm impressed at a lot of placings. In spite of Dixie being #1, it appears most people who voted for her also voted for Funky, which puts him incredibly high. It would be incredibly easy to make a clone or at least a character partially based on DK with Funky, so I don't know why they don't go do that.

Tom Nook has always been the #1 for Animal Crossing with his main competition eliminated, but I didn't expect the demand for an Animal Crossing character to reach those heights. I applaud him, and I have always wanted a strong capitalism based character like him, so long as they actually implement that into his moveset in an interesting way.

Krystal managing to have so many votes in spite of being so dead in her franchise is quite impressive, her popularity is truly lasting in spite of her grim fate in her series. Regardless of why she has that popularity, she does in fact still have it, and given its nature, it's likely not going to go away any time soon.

I'm still largely dismissing the popularity of Raven Beak as being from a franchise with no suitable characters and the poll's presentation, even if he'd be great. His chances will also be killed by Sylux, who somehow has 300 votes in spite of us still waiting to see what his damn role in the new game is.

Geno sitting all the way at 31st with less votes than even Sylux is rather pathetic when his only positive trait is popularity, well below Waluigi who is clearly claiming his spot as the Mario popularity-based pick, but more surprisingly also below Paper Mario. Paper Mario is already the most realistic Mario RPG character, so if he somehow has popularity for some reason (I don't know how, even I would prefer Geno), Geno's chances are incredibly dead.

Impressive showings for the Kid Icarus characters, although I don't see any of them happening without another game. The fact it's so ridiculously competitive between the three main candidates also makes me question how many people just voted for all three of them. I only voted for Hades, and apparently my vote mattered considering how close he is to Viridi. There is clear demand for a sequel to Kid Icarus Uprising and I'd love to see it and may even get it myself at this point despite not having played the original, I never had a 3DS.

Skull Kid is way more popular than generic episodic Zelda characters from the most recent games and has shown to be an enduring symbol of popularity, I'd easily argue he's the most recognizable Zelda character not in the game and one of the most recognizable Nintendo characters in general. It's good to see his fanbase doing so well.

I'm still writing off Black Shadow and Samurai Goroh being as high as they are due to the category system encouraging people to vote for something from every franchise, their competition is incredibly weak. Porky meanwhile has a bit more competition in his series even if it's not much. I really can't stand the thought of so many people voting for Ninten just to complete an obligatory set and having a third boring protagonist Ness clone from the worst game in the series.

Captain Toad and Toad being so close in vote count really shows people don't really care about Captain Toad specifically if you ask me, he is just used as a crutch to try to make Toad more appealing. By comparison, there is a massive gap between Bandanna Dee and Waddle Dee, that shows people very much consider Bandanna his own character.

Spring Man being so high within ARMs is bafflingly boring to me when we already dodged a main character bullet with Min Min, apparently people just want main characters if people want Ninten of all people. Not that an ARMs character would happen to begin with. Twintelle is a pretty obvious choice if it did happen though, I wouldn't complain about it. Hedlok, the final boss, should probably have been a choice on the poll if a generic announcer who does nothing like Biff is on.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Hedlok, the final boss, should probably have been a choice on the poll if a generic announcer who does nothing like Biff is on.

I considered putting Headlok on there. But ultimately Headlok is an item any character can wear in a special mode. So, I didn't put it on the poll. It's kind of like Elma's skells or Fox's Arwings.

 

[Arcanir]

The results haven’t changed substantially from 500 to 1000 votes, bar the swapping of a few characters, and the fall-off of a few.

Still, it’s interesting to see that Smash fans really love dormant and/or seniority in characters and series in that regard, such as Donkey Kong, F-Zero, Mother, and Star Fox.

I still wonder why Pneuma wasn’t in the poll. Is it just that people don’t consider her as her own character (or moveset)?

Late on this, but this did stick out to me as well.

Looking at the Top 21, the only characters from the Switch era are Raven Beak, Mio, and Noah (with Octoling becoming playable with Splatoon 2), and if you go to 50 it adds Oatchi, Twintelle, and Officer Howard. Going back to the 3DS/Wii U era adds a few more like Viridi and Magolor, but there's a clear definite leaning towards older/legacy characters in this poll.

In general, that does indicate a preference to further filling out the roster with older beloved characters, and it does make sense when you consider where the roster is right now, and how some of the newcomers added were approached. It's even further emphasized by the fact that the four characters who broke 500 votes fall into that category. That said, I do think the fact that we do have these newer characters like Raven Beak, Octoling, and Mio/Noah breaking into the top spots makes them standout even more as it does show that despite not having as much time on their side they still left a mark among the fanbase, and I think that's something to note. It also will be something to watch out for if Sakurai does follow what he did with Smash For and dips into newer titles more for the newcomer roster.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Late on this, but this did stick out to me as well.

Looking at the Top 21, the only characters from the Switch era are Raven Beak, Mio, and Noah (with Octoling becoming playable with Splatoon 2), and if you go to 50 it adds Oatchi, Twintelle, and Officer Howard. Going back to the 3DS/Wii U era adds a few more like Viridi and Magolor, but there's a clear definite leaning towards older/legacy characters in this poll.

In general, that does indicate a preference to further filling out the roster with older beloved characters, and it does make sense when you consider where the roster is right now, and how some of the newcomers added were approached. It's even further emphasized by the fact that the four characters who broke 500 votes fall into that category. That said, I do think the fact that we do have these newer characters like Raven Beak, Octoling, and Mio/Noah breaking into the top spots makes them standout even more as it does show that despite not having as much time on their side they still left a mark among the fanbase, and I think that's something to note. It also will be something to watch out for if Sakurai does follow what he did with Smash For and dips into newer titles more for the newcomer roster.

Smash speculation has been incredibly dormant, and people aren't updating their most wanteds when no game has been announced. Whoever their most wanted for Ultimate was in 2018, or at least at the end of Ultimate's DLC cycle, is probably still going to be their most wanted. Whenever a game is shown, speculation will become more mainstream and there will be a more legitimate chance for new characters to inevitably weasel their way in for relevancy.

Still, as more time passes on, more and more smash speculation people are old guard going into their 30s, and after that point it just becomes generally less likely for people to change their opinions in most cases or care about new characters. The new generation of Smash speculation folks have no real reason to come to a place like this until a new game appears.

 

[SharkLord]

I know we just wrapped up this poll, but I kinda wonder what a one-vote-per-person poll would look like. We've already speculated that Geno was undermined because his support base is largely very vocal hardcore fans and not much else, and Funky Kong is thought to be someone who most people would be cool with but doesn't have as many diehard fans who have him as their first pick. If we ran a one-vote poll, I wonder how the results would differ.

 

[Louie G.]

I know we just wrapped up this poll, but I kinda wonder what a one-vote-per-person poll would look like.

I’m going to assume Geno ranks notably higher, and the more unique placements in this poll go down significantly. Funky Kong, the Uprising characters, so forth. Tom Nook and Octoling probably get bumped. With this in mind I think this approach to the poll was far more productive in assessing community taste.

I think Dixie Kong, Waluigi and Bandana Dee would still place firmly around the Top 5 area, Isaac may rank even higher than he does now. Maybe Skull Kid as well... Raven Beak or Krystal I’m unsure about? Rhythm Heaven would be even less fortunate in its scattered vote distribution and I don’t think many other new series would stand a chance.

I think the results of this poll would be somewhat boring and predictable. If we ran this back maybe I’d suggest one final “who’s your most wanted character” question but all in all I think it’s nice just to see what everyone unanimously is into rather than who can rally their cult most efficiently. I think we already know the answers to that.

 

[SharkLord]

I’m going to assume Geno ranks notably higher, and the more unique placements in this poll go down significantly. Funky Kong, the Uprising characters, so forth. Tom Nook and Octoling probably get bumped. With this in mind I think this approach to the poll was far more productive in assessing community taste.

I think Dixie Kong, Waluigi and Bandana Dee would still place firmly around the Top 5 area, Isaac may rank even higher than he does now. Maybe Skull Kid as well... Raven Beak or Krystal I’m unsure about? Rhythm Heaven would be even less fortunate in its scattered vote distribution and I don’t think many other new series would stand a chance.

I think the results of this poll would be somewhat boring and predictable. If we ran this back maybe I’d suggest one final “who’s your most wanted character” question but all in all I think it’s nice just to see what everyone unanimously is into rather than who can rally their cult most efficiently. I think we already know the answers to that.

Yeah, it probably would've been optimal to add the No. 1 Pick as a question at the end, but we're probably past that now. There's also the fact that some of the subreddits Swamp contacted either turned down the poll or just didn't respond, which would inevitably lopside the results due to survey bias. Only so much that could be done there.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Ranked choice voting poll could be interesting but it has questionable feasability vis a vis Google Forms

 

[Swamp Sensei]

So, I know I said I wasn't spreading the poll anymore but...

The Hotel Dusk and Wario subreddits finally got back to me after literal weeks. So uh...

The poll is now on both of those subreddits now.

 

[fogbadge]

So, I know I said I wasn't spreading the poll anymore but...

The Hotel Dusk and Wario subreddits finally got back to me after literal weeks. So uh...

The poll is now on both of those subreddits now.

kyle hyde is about to skyrocket

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So, I know I said I wasn't spreading the poll anymore but...

The Hotel Dusk and Wario subreddits finally got back to me after literal weeks. So uh...

The poll is now on both of those subreddits now.

Leave it to Wario to get off his ass at the last minute.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

kyle hyde is about to skyrocket

You overestimate the size of the Hotel Dusk fanbase, lol.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

You overestimate the size of the Hotel Dusk fanbase, lol.

He's going to get like....6 extra votes :V

 

[fogbadge]

You overestimate the size of the Hotel Dusk fanbase, lol.

yes but they've mastered the art of putting on a disguise and having another go

 

[Swamp Sensei]

yes but they've mastered the art of putting on a disguise and having another go

What?

 

[fogbadge]

What?

You know when you put on a wig and go to the back of the line and pretend to be someone else

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

You know when you put on a wig and go to the back of the line and pretend to be someone else

Relevant

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

You overestimate the size of the Hotel Dusk fanbase, lol.

Even the Hotel Dusk subreddit is mostly talking about the Trace Memory remake lol

With that said, Hotel Dusk is awesome more people should play it

 

[fogbadge]

Even the Hotel Dusk subreddit is mostly talking about the Trace Memory remake lol

With that said, Hotel Dusk is awesome more people should play it

oh give it time, they'll remake it too

 

[smashkirby]

So, I know I said I wasn't spreading the poll anymore but...

The Hotel Dusk and Wario subreddits finally got back to me after literal weeks. So uh...

The poll is now on both of those subreddits now.

Wonder what this means for ol' Kyle Hyde...

As for Wario? Well, while I'd like to hope that Mona keeps her current standing, I can't help but feel like there's going to be a bit of a scuffle now between her and 9-Volt (and MAYBE Jimmy T., Kat, and Ana).

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I've been wondering. Is there any way to get the poll to Japanese communities? Or would that even be prudent? I can't reliably translate the poll.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I've been wondering. Is there any way to get the poll to Japanese communities? Or would that even be prudent? I can't reliably translate the poll.

You'd have to find a way to translate it, a LOT of your options have different names in Japan.

 

[Oracle Link]

I do have to say Toad got C***ed after all i think being split into 3/4 slot when probably toad, toadette and captain toad would be in via costumes is unfair!
Thats why i voted for all of them!
The zelda characters might be lower thanks to no subreddit!
But TBH adding all 3 should probably happen anyways!
I guess Donkey kong is lucky for the cult following of dixie and funky Althogh Dixie would probably be enough realisticly!

Kirby was what i expected! Although whispy and kracko shouldve been on the poll i could see them doing decently being very reacuring bosses and all!
In general if a boss appears in half the games i would include it!
Gohma and dodongo are fun concepts too (although they probably wouldnt do well!)

Also maybe do a small which ganon do you want poll?
Im sure its either going to be a reworked TOTK Ganondorf or classic pig ganon!

Also for you waddle dee and waddle doo voters i also suggest voting for all three (also bwd) because im sure he would come with alts based on them!

 

[smashkirby]

I've been wondering. Is there any way to get the poll to Japanese communities? Or would that even be prudent? I can't reliably translate the poll.

If I remember correctly, aren't some SmashBoards users here who are from Japan? Maybe they could help?

At the very least, perhaps they could help rename the characters on your poll to their OG JP names (Like G Guynamednelson said, a LOT of these folks have different names in Japan...)?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I do have to say Toad got C***ed after all i think being split into 3/4 slot when probably toad, toadette and captain toad would be in via costumes is unfair!

Considering two Toads got in the Mario top five and were right next to each other, I don't think they got cucked at all. They are all technically different characters, even if they can work as alts.

Like Toad and Captain Toad aside, there should at least be some distinction between Toad and Toadette on a poll like this.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

The Rhythm Heaven subreddit finally responded.

With a no.

RIP in Heaven.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

The Rhythm Heaven subreddit finally responded.

With a no.

RIP in Heaven.

Guess we'll never know who is the actual darling among the RH cast.

 

[smashkirby]

The Rhythm Heaven subreddit finally responded.

With a no.

RIP in Heaven.

Dang... I was honestly really hoping we'd get SOME idea as to who the R.H. fandom would be more likely to rally behind...

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

Dang... I was honestly really hoping we'd get SOME idea as to who the R.H. fandom would be more likely to rally behind...

rally, you say?

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

m.youtube.com

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.

Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

 

[Perkilator]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

Going by characters that I think have at least some sort of shot:

• Dixie Kong
• Bandana Waddle Dee
• Waluigi
• Tom Nook
• Octoling
• Raven Beak
• Noah & Mio

 

[Laniv]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

Dixie Kong, Waluigi, Bandana Dee, and Tom Nook feel like the big frontrunners. Noah and Mio are right behind them, and Isaac and Octoling are right behind them.

And it ain't looking too hot for Chibi-Robo.

 

[RodNutTakin]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

Alright, I'm gonna break these all down in my personal opinion kind of way.

Dixie Kong is probably going to get in with the merit of being a demanded and lower-effort inclusion, as I have her penned down on my SSB6 prediction roster in a nebulous state somewhere between "Daisy" and "Isabelle" in terms of distinction.

Waddle Dee is a 75-25 standing for me. Had you not conducted this poll, it'd honestly still be a 50-50. It would be a shoo-in if the weirdness of Kirby content distribution wasn't present, but the internal HAL push, Forgotten Land being rather centric on Waddle Dees as a whole and becoming the new top Kirby seller makes me think the status quo for Kirby has a good chance of having to be changed now. And there's the freak possibility of Sakurai having his cake and eating it too by making a generic, species-encompassing Waddle Dee fighter that so happens to have a bandanna alt.

Funky Kong is probably not happening, even though I would've actually enjoyed him as a semiclone Kong much more than Dixie. He is well liked, but not necessarily a big Smash campaign.

The way I see it, Tom Nook, Ashley, and Krystal would all be competing for the same "spot" here, given that they are all less than 10 votes apart from each other here, and they all have been in the situation where the devs felt like their origin series were fine being represented without them playable for multiple installments. Personally, I think Ashley has the longest shot out of the three; the former is a notable Animal Crossing guy and the latter has an assist trophy that's a thirds of the way to becoming a full fighter, and has the unique hook of being a magic staff user with ice powers (along with anything else that could be pulled from Adventures and Assault).

Even though he trailed behind the previous three, I actually think Isaac can beat out the tanuki, fox and witch here just for the reasons of being highly demanded, having a unique fighting style and basis for a fighter thanks to his Ultimate AT, and he'd add a whole new universe to the playable cast with him. Inherently out of the four I think are "competing" here, his addition would bring more content to the game besides arguably Ashley.

Octoling is the one not-Pokemon pick I think is guaranteed. I personally think they will be the Isabelle to Inkling's Villager, but I guess I can't rule out an easy echo or possibly an even easier "replaces four of Inkling's alt costumes" scenario.

While I think Raven Beak would be a cool addition, the character's one-off nature hurts him quite a bit in my eyes, and Metroid isn't exactly starving for even more characters in my eyes--I imagine that most of the Dread representation will come in the form of a Samus redesign and a stage set on one of ZDR's areas.

Paper Mario's resurgence with the TTYD re-release is too little, too late in my eyes in terms of being likely for Smash, and besides that, there's two or three characters that I think are in line in front of him, anyways.

I'm not sure how to feel about Skull Kid. On one hand, he's a long-standing request who would represent one of the most talked about Zeldas, but on the other hand, being shafted twice and having stiff competition even in this poll makes me doubt he is a sure shot, especially considering he and the mask he wears are one-shots. I genuinely don't know how to place his chances, other than likely below...

...Impa's. I still hold on to the gut feeling that this is probably going to be the character that will have the best shot of bringing fresh blood into Zelda's lineup, being a consistent non-Triforce character with a decent amount of combative roles to her name. I personally would love the Age of Calamity design, but there may be some tape around that game that would incline a mainline incarnation of the character being chosen instead.

Midna is another character I don't know how to feel about, pretty much for similar reasons as Skull Kid. Doesn't help that I'm not a Zelda buff, either.

Hades and Viridi are both fighting uphill battles in my eyes, as Uprising continues to get further and further away from the present time. I'm actually expecting Palutena to arrive fashionably late for SSB6 if they can't get everyone back again, so I think these two are pretty much cooked, unfortunately. Medusa being even lower...ouch.

I expect at least one of Mio or Noah to get in. While 3 isn't as popular as 2, I don't see anyone outright hating the game, and I think including a character from it would be harmless to do, especially since there's no indicator currently that we're getting Xenoblade 4 or X DE any time soon. I do not know if them being able to use each other's classes would let them be alts or echoes of each other, I guess it mainly depends on if that system would be used as a "stance switch" gimmick of sorts.

Chibi-Robo isn't happening, I can say that for free. Not after Nintendo performed the video game industry equivalent of whacking him. It would take a miracle for him to come back at this rate.

Lyn is a train that I think is going to run out of steam at the current rate things are going. A double whammy of Nintendo and/or IS forcing promotional characters for FE, and the disdain towards series representation because of said forcing, has given Lyn a very unfavorable situation that will only worsen as time passes. Quite literally, the only way I can see her having a shot is if the FE fanbase chooses to rally behind her and practically only her, like Metroid fans did for Ridley or DK fans did for K. Rool.

EDIT: How did I miss Waluigi!? I genuinely think he's going into the next game in a similar situation Ridley went into before Ultimate was announced. Dude's exclusion from Ultimate made headlines, keep that in mind. While it is true that Waluigi is still without a true starring role, my gut says that "the screwballs have spoken".

 

[BritishGuy54]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

I don’t think Dixie Kong is happening. DK may very well be lower priority this time around. I could see Funky Kong getting in as an easier to develop echo fighter.

Bandana Dee really should happen at this point. Now we’re starting to see some characters feel more ‘ripe’ for inclusion.

Waluigi isn’t guaranteed. He’s popular, but he still doesn’t have a game to himself. It’s possible he makes it, but I’m not totally convinced.

Animal Crossing will get a third character with Tom Nook.

I’m not convinced on Ashley. Something about her makes me think we’re not getting her.

I heavily doubt Star Fox will get a new character. Its position as a series makes it possible it’s being booted down to just Fox. Krystal is just too late.

Isaac would be a good popular nostalgia pick. I think he could make it.

Octoling should get in.

Raven Beak feels like the timing is against him. With Prime 4 coming up, Sylux would likely end up as a DLC character, and the new Metroid inclusion altogether.

Paper Mario also feels like the time is ripe for his inclusion. The legacy is there, as well as the relevancy.

Skull Kid and Midna I heavily doubt will happen. Zelda hasn’t typically been dealt the best hand in Smash, and we may very well be heading towards a heavily Switch influenced selection of Zelda characters. Impa is the safest shot.

Hades, Viridi, and Medusa aren’t happening. We need another KI game to get one of them.

Chibi-Robo had his time pass.

Lyn could get in, but I feel like it’ll be Alear instead.

Noah and Mio will likely see one, not both get in. My gut says Noah will take priority.

All I can say is that a new Smash is likely moving away from characters we want, and more likely will push characters we need.

 

[fogbadge]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

Noah, Mio and Octoling seem like distinct possibilities. the others all have the trait have being passed over in the past. things can change yes but I dunno

 

[ssbashworld]

Can see another dk rep, especially if in a semi-clone state.

Waluigi (or another Fire Emblem fighter) feel like some of the last 1st party fighters for now who would really drum up alot of online discourse. Maybe this could play in favor for Paper Mario or Ashley though if they want to save Waluigi to go with a weaker 3rd party selection.

Isaac feels pretty plausible too as a longtime fan favorite series/fighter request.

Can see Banada Dee, Octoling (if not an clone / echo), & Tom Nook maybe getting sidelined to focus on someone from series who may stick out more in different categories.

Mixed on Skull Kid & Impa. Hard to feel confident when they havent committed to anyone outside the triforce trio & can see them taking a Pokemon, Fire Emblem, etc approach going for a recent standout like Rauru.

Hard to imagine any/more Kid Icarus, Star Fox, Chibi-Robo, or throwback Fire Emblem fighters.

Also feel like time is tiking for Noah & Mio & may have already past for Raven Beak & Midna.

 

[SharkLord]

Okay guys... Let's have a quick discussion about these results.
View attachment 395010
Of the top 21 characters, which characters do you think actually have a shot of being included in a new game? Any characters you think have no shot?

Which one do you think is the most likely?

• Dixie and Funky seem to be widely accepted, but they don't have the same vocal push K. Rool did. DK still gets remakes and appearances in other media, but there hasn't been a new "mainline" Donkey Kong game since Tropical Freeze, so it's kind of in the middle as far as relevancy goes. Regardless of debates on whether or not the Kongs work as Echo Fighters, the models for Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong could easily used as a base for Dixie and Funky, and given how often animations are reused nowadays they might port over at least some attacks too, so I'd imagine they wouldn't be too difficult to create. My current standing on them is maybe; They have some decent factors going for them but don't have a single strong motivator for their inclusion, so it could go either way
• Bandana Dee has been eating good lately. Kirby's been on an upswing in the Switch era, and Bandana Dee's standing in the series has been continuously growing, backed by a fairly consistent support base. Between Ultimate's roster being decided and the modern day, he's gone from "Next most recurring guy in a mid-level series" to "Consistent No. 2 of arguably the biggest Nintendo B-lister." I'm pretty optimistic for his chances; I dare say he's a frontrunner for next game
• Waluigi has historically been relegated to spinoffs as part of an ensemble cast, only propped up by his high popularity. But hey, that got Daisy into Smash (As an Echo, granted), and Walugi's fanbase has only grown since then. I think his sheer popularity might be enough to power him through
• Tom Nook is a few notches short from a done deal. He's a long-running mascot of Animal Crossing, a consistent seller that's seen massive growth on the Switch. Not much more to say here, he's in a good spot
• Ashley is interesting; I seem to remember she had a decently strong following before her AT reveal, but after that she just vanished off the face of the Earth. I'm of the belief that there's some decently well-performing characters on the ballot who simply got screwed out by the tight squeeze on the newcomer selection, so I'd imagine Ashley's on Sakurai's radar. It also helps that she's a staple of WarioWare, which sees pretty regular releases.
• Krystal is iffy to me. She hasn't shown up in Star Fox in a while, and Star Fox itself has gone dormant.In addition, she probably had to contend with requests to get Wolf back during the ballot. Even so, it's clear she has some pretty solid popularity; I doubt she would've gotten an Assist Trophy without it. In general a lot of ATs in Ultimate felt like "There's not enough room for a full fighter but at least they're present, right?" So Krystal's chances are shaky, but I wouldn't rule her out entirely
• Isaac has some impressive popularity, given that Golden Sun's been inactive since the days of the DS. He was hotly requested up until his AT was shown, and there were still some fringe groups hoping he could be added as DLC. Given how most characters dropped off after they were deconfirmed, that's some dedication. I think he has a decent shot
• Octoling is almost guaranteed, I'd say. Splatoon's pretty damn big, and the Octolings are propped up just as much as the Inklings as player characters. The main question is if they'd be alts, Echoes, or distinct fighters
• Raven Beak really took off after Dread, and Metroid itself has bounced back after being on ice for a while. I could easily see Raven Beak next game.
• Paper Mario, hmm... Paper Mario's a popular spinoff of the Mario series, and Paper Mario has enough tools to make him distinct from normal Mario, but I dunno. It never felt like Paper Mario had that much of a push, and he probably takes second priority to other Mario characters, seing as he's just another incarnation of Mario and all. I kinda doubt his chances
• Skull Kid, Impa, and Midna... We never got to the Zelda subreddit so it's hard to gauge the true fan-favorite. The fandom is rather fractured between the three, as well as requests for a reworked Ganondorf. I could still see Skull Kid or Midna making it in from popularity alone, unless there's a recent character Nintendo wants pushed, but I'm iffy on Impa. She's been latched on to as a "safe," semi-recurring character who could Echo or repalce Sheik, but she feels like an Anna situation. She's never really had a "definitive" depiction, and her active roles in the plot are rather infrequent; In terms of vocal, first-choice requests, I think Impa falls short
• Medusa, Hades, and Viridi have pretty solid support for their series' inactivity, and Sakurai seems quite fond of Kid Icarus: Uprising, but their support isn't super high, and Uprising is still inactive. out of them, Medusa probably has the best shot by virtue of Echoing Palutena relatively easily
• Mio and Noah cover a late Switch era release, and they're usually depicted together as dual protagonists, from what I've seen. Noah seems to be favored slightly more with his titual Xenoblade, but Mio seems quite popular in her own right. If we want to get risky, maybe we'll see both, but I don't think that's actually very likely. Still, I could see either of them show up next game
• Chibi-Robo did well, but he didn't really exceed. His series kinda dropped off the face of the Earth after Zip-Lash, too. I don't think his support base is strong enough to push him over that wall and into the roster.
• Lyn hinges on how Fire Emblem is handled next game. She has a strong role as the first Lord in the West, has the most support out of any FE character, and IntSys knows she's marketable among Fire Emblem fans, if all her Heroes alts are any indication. However, Fire Emblem will almost certainly get a game on the Switch 2 that will have a slot saved ahead of time, likely taking priority. Lyn might have a shot if there's a rework of the Fire Emblem lineup next game, as there's been vocal outcry against the amount of FE swordfighters, and Sakurai seems to agree to some level, given that Byleth was given all the Relics instead of focusing on their sword; Lyn does have a sword, but if the FE lineup gets redone, Sakurai might think her prominence gives her priority over some of the other FE swordfighters. That said, I don't think Sakurai would really do a full revamp like that; More likely, he'd cut out a couple Fire Emblem characters, add the main character from the new Switch 2 game, and call it a day. So, Lyn has a shot, but her chances overall aren't all that high