ThyCheshireCat
Smash Apprentice
Analysis got a bit beefy here so I'm putting it in spoiler tags so people don't have to scroll through the massive wall of text that it became.
Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong I think are the absolute most likely (non-clone) characters to get in next game, if we somehow don't get one of these two, or hell, end up with neither, I would be extremely shocked and honestly dissapointed. If I only had to pick one as THE most likely character I'd probably give an edge to Bandee, if nothing else because DK got a character last game and Kirby didn't, but either way I think we're seeing both and I for one welcome their inclusion. Even in a universe where they didn't have the vocal support-bases they do now, they're also some of the last missing Nintendo All-Stars and both come from largely overlooked series that in the former's case hasn't seen a playable rep in over 15 years and the latter basically only got a playable rep (and its first Assist Trophy) for its extra content last game.
Funky I'm a bit more uncertain of. He's certainly got the support needed, but the role people want to see of him is mostly that of an Echo Fighter, which I would wager is unfitting of the character's potential and how much he differs from DK in mannerisms and abilities. DK as a series is certainly one that is both worthy and able to get multiple unique newcomers, but such a thing is never as safe of a prediction as a single character would be, and I think other series like Kirby (which has equally been neglected for newcomers in the past, yet unlike DK never saw a newcomer in Ultimate) and Splatoon (which is incredibly popular and still fresh in the Smash scene with only one rep) may be more likely to see multiple newcomers if we are to get series with more than one new rep. Not to mention, at least as far as being a completely original newcomer would be concerned, he does see decent competition from Cranky Kong, who while less popular in the polls does have iconicity and importance to the series on his side.
Waluigi is in a bit of a weird spot. He's certainly one of the most well known Nintendo newcomers they could include and would absolutely be well received by most should he see his inclusion in the next game, but I question Sakurai's willingness to include the character. He knows Waluigi is wanted and has known this for years, yet even when all the other big hitters like Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo saw themselves playable in Ultimate, Waluigi (and Geno, but he's Square Enix and they're weird) saw himself in no different of a position as he saw himself two games prior.
Tom Nook surprises me to see this high, not because it doesn't feel right, because he's absolutely in the same 'Nintendo All-Stars' camp as Dixie and Bandana Dee, but moreso because I don't really see all too much talk about him as a newcomer compared to a lot of the other characters here. I think I honestly saw more of Tom Nook in Brawl/For speculation than in spec for this upcoming game, though, as someone who is fond of the character, it's good to know that he's got a large support base (though I'm admittedly more on the K.K. Slider train as far as my preferred third Animal Crossing rep goes). As far as his actual chances go, I think it's a 50/50, not a matter of whether AC geta a new rep but moreso just who it ends up being between him and the other major characters of the series.
Ashley's great, not got much to say on her standing here but I like Wario games and I like spoopy occult stuff so I can't complain. Hope she gets in. Chances are... I'd say about 50/50.
Krystal's the first one here who I concretely think is more likely to not be included than she is to see herself in the game. She's popular but Star Fox isn't really an active series, nor is it exactly famished for representation compared to its size. I guess if we get a particularly large number of newcomers next time around it's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Isaac and Chibi Robo... you poor things. If anyone here is getting done dirty it's probably you two, Ring Fit's probably next in line to get a new rep if it isn't considered part of the Wii Fit series, and I think most future Smash games are going to be too focused on adding to the series that already exist (there's a ton of them on the roster as it is and a good number are still active.) compared to repping new ones. (which will still largely happen with Third Party characters instead in future IMO) I can still see Isaac getting in soon if his support base becomes even more vocal but I think Chibi Robo's cooked honestly, unless his series comes back or Sakurai specifically looks for a 2000s era series to add to the roster next game, (which even then Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun would probably have him beat, and there's stiff competition for the series against Fossil Fighters, Advance Wars, and the like for who's in third place.)
Octoling is happening in some form 100% and will probably be a semiclone of some variety. Now, personally, I'm not that interested in seeing them, especially not compared to other potential Splatoon characters, would honestly rather DJ Octavio or something, but I've come to accept that they're coming and I hope it's just in a way that represents new and interesting mechanics from the series rather than just being an echo.
Raven Beak is so based as a pick but Metroid's not really in need of any more newcomers currently so I think people inflate his chances. As far as potential villains go he is high up there for representing more modern titles, but it's kind of hard to ignore the fact there are still other series like Kirby, Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Pikmin, and Splatoon that completely lack villain rep entirely that may be better to prioritize over a third Metroid villain. There's also a matter of Prime 4 and Sylux, which depending on timing could throw another massive wrench in Raven Beak's chances of being included. This aside, out of the all the top 21 he's absolutely the one I'd be most excited for (with Dee as a close second), so I really hope my gut is wrong about this.
TL;DR, do I think he's coming? probably not honestly. Do I want him? Y E S.
Paper Mario's a good call honestly but I think Waluigi would be prioritized due to fan demand if only a single Mario rep is to be included. Though, Ultimate aside, Mario reps usually come in pairs, so it's certainly still possible.
Now for the Zelda block. And. as much of a hot take as this is, I think Impa is the least likely of the three. A character with basically no consistent identity in the series, Impa shows up as younger athletic type in some games, an elderly woman in others, and in the Oracle games she was completely different to either (honestly wouldn't mind her appearing like that again in another TLoZ game TBH, but that's neither here nor there.) She's just very difficult to include in a way that represents every side of her character, which I honestly also think is a major factor as to why she hasn't already shown up. Though I do think a stance change fighter where she swaps from young to old would be extremely funny, if a bit disingenuous to the character usually being a different incarnation in most games. Skull Kid/Majora and Midna only really show up in one game each, but they have much more consistent characterization that's easier to weave into a single fighter, and both also have models that can be spruced up for a fighter appearance, SK even has the Moon asset they can repurpose for a Final Smash.
From one block straight into another we have the Kid Icarus bunch and yeah I don't see any of these happening next game, Medusa could theoretically be an Echo fighter but even then there's a plethora of echoes who'd likely have precedence for one reason or another, so she ends up no more or less likely than a unique fighter IMO. Hades is a fun antagonist but even if Kid Icarus does get a revival it's difficult to say if he'll actually be the main antagonist again or if they'll pick a different grecoroman figure instead. I think Viridi is the safest bet for a new slot solely for being the last of the PG trio to need to be added, and from what I understand of the series, the most likely to have a major role if a new game does come around.
Noah and/or Mio I could see, probably the former if only one, due to wielding a sword and being the protagonist of the game. Maybe they could stance change like Pyra and Mythra or the Pokemon Trainer Trio? I know they aren't exactly as physically connected as those guys but there's certainly no harm in adding more characters with multiple forms, dev time aside. More Xenoblade in general isn't guaranteed, but it wouldn't hurt, and would probably be much better received by the community than certain other swordie-protag series that are admittedly much likely to get new characters based on antecedent additions.
They are 99% going to add the most recent FE protagonist of the time, whether it be Alear or whoever comes next, and that's it (and 1% not add anyone new at all). Lyn is almost certainly staying as an assist trophy, unless they really shake up how Fire Emblem rep works next game. If I had to bet one just one of these not getting in, it's her.
Funky I'm a bit more uncertain of. He's certainly got the support needed, but the role people want to see of him is mostly that of an Echo Fighter, which I would wager is unfitting of the character's potential and how much he differs from DK in mannerisms and abilities. DK as a series is certainly one that is both worthy and able to get multiple unique newcomers, but such a thing is never as safe of a prediction as a single character would be, and I think other series like Kirby (which has equally been neglected for newcomers in the past, yet unlike DK never saw a newcomer in Ultimate) and Splatoon (which is incredibly popular and still fresh in the Smash scene with only one rep) may be more likely to see multiple newcomers if we are to get series with more than one new rep. Not to mention, at least as far as being a completely original newcomer would be concerned, he does see decent competition from Cranky Kong, who while less popular in the polls does have iconicity and importance to the series on his side.
Waluigi is in a bit of a weird spot. He's certainly one of the most well known Nintendo newcomers they could include and would absolutely be well received by most should he see his inclusion in the next game, but I question Sakurai's willingness to include the character. He knows Waluigi is wanted and has known this for years, yet even when all the other big hitters like Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo saw themselves playable in Ultimate, Waluigi (and Geno, but he's Square Enix and they're weird) saw himself in no different of a position as he saw himself two games prior.
Tom Nook surprises me to see this high, not because it doesn't feel right, because he's absolutely in the same 'Nintendo All-Stars' camp as Dixie and Bandana Dee, but moreso because I don't really see all too much talk about him as a newcomer compared to a lot of the other characters here. I think I honestly saw more of Tom Nook in Brawl/For speculation than in spec for this upcoming game, though, as someone who is fond of the character, it's good to know that he's got a large support base (though I'm admittedly more on the K.K. Slider train as far as my preferred third Animal Crossing rep goes). As far as his actual chances go, I think it's a 50/50, not a matter of whether AC geta a new rep but moreso just who it ends up being between him and the other major characters of the series.
Ashley's great, not got much to say on her standing here but I like Wario games and I like spoopy occult stuff so I can't complain. Hope she gets in. Chances are... I'd say about 50/50.
Krystal's the first one here who I concretely think is more likely to not be included than she is to see herself in the game. She's popular but Star Fox isn't really an active series, nor is it exactly famished for representation compared to its size. I guess if we get a particularly large number of newcomers next time around it's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Isaac and Chibi Robo... you poor things. If anyone here is getting done dirty it's probably you two, Ring Fit's probably next in line to get a new rep if it isn't considered part of the Wii Fit series, and I think most future Smash games are going to be too focused on adding to the series that already exist (there's a ton of them on the roster as it is and a good number are still active.) compared to repping new ones. (which will still largely happen with Third Party characters instead in future IMO) I can still see Isaac getting in soon if his support base becomes even more vocal but I think Chibi Robo's cooked honestly, unless his series comes back or Sakurai specifically looks for a 2000s era series to add to the roster next game, (which even then Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun would probably have him beat, and there's stiff competition for the series against Fossil Fighters, Advance Wars, and the like for who's in third place.)
Octoling is happening in some form 100% and will probably be a semiclone of some variety. Now, personally, I'm not that interested in seeing them, especially not compared to other potential Splatoon characters, would honestly rather DJ Octavio or something, but I've come to accept that they're coming and I hope it's just in a way that represents new and interesting mechanics from the series rather than just being an echo.
Raven Beak is so based as a pick but Metroid's not really in need of any more newcomers currently so I think people inflate his chances. As far as potential villains go he is high up there for representing more modern titles, but it's kind of hard to ignore the fact there are still other series like Kirby, Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Pikmin, and Splatoon that completely lack villain rep entirely that may be better to prioritize over a third Metroid villain. There's also a matter of Prime 4 and Sylux, which depending on timing could throw another massive wrench in Raven Beak's chances of being included. This aside, out of the all the top 21 he's absolutely the one I'd be most excited for (with Dee as a close second), so I really hope my gut is wrong about this.
TL;DR, do I think he's coming? probably not honestly. Do I want him? Y E S.
Paper Mario's a good call honestly but I think Waluigi would be prioritized due to fan demand if only a single Mario rep is to be included. Though, Ultimate aside, Mario reps usually come in pairs, so it's certainly still possible.
Now for the Zelda block. And. as much of a hot take as this is, I think Impa is the least likely of the three. A character with basically no consistent identity in the series, Impa shows up as younger athletic type in some games, an elderly woman in others, and in the Oracle games she was completely different to either (honestly wouldn't mind her appearing like that again in another TLoZ game TBH, but that's neither here nor there.) She's just very difficult to include in a way that represents every side of her character, which I honestly also think is a major factor as to why she hasn't already shown up. Though I do think a stance change fighter where she swaps from young to old would be extremely funny, if a bit disingenuous to the character usually being a different incarnation in most games. Skull Kid/Majora and Midna only really show up in one game each, but they have much more consistent characterization that's easier to weave into a single fighter, and both also have models that can be spruced up for a fighter appearance, SK even has the Moon asset they can repurpose for a Final Smash.
From one block straight into another we have the Kid Icarus bunch and yeah I don't see any of these happening next game, Medusa could theoretically be an Echo fighter but even then there's a plethora of echoes who'd likely have precedence for one reason or another, so she ends up no more or less likely than a unique fighter IMO. Hades is a fun antagonist but even if Kid Icarus does get a revival it's difficult to say if he'll actually be the main antagonist again or if they'll pick a different grecoroman figure instead. I think Viridi is the safest bet for a new slot solely for being the last of the PG trio to need to be added, and from what I understand of the series, the most likely to have a major role if a new game does come around.
Noah and/or Mio I could see, probably the former if only one, due to wielding a sword and being the protagonist of the game. Maybe they could stance change like Pyra and Mythra or the Pokemon Trainer Trio? I know they aren't exactly as physically connected as those guys but there's certainly no harm in adding more characters with multiple forms, dev time aside. More Xenoblade in general isn't guaranteed, but it wouldn't hurt, and would probably be much better received by the community than certain other swordie-protag series that are admittedly much likely to get new characters based on antecedent additions.
They are 99% going to add the most recent FE protagonist of the time, whether it be Alear or whoever comes next, and that's it (and 1% not add anyone new at all). Lyn is almost certainly staying as an assist trophy, unless they really shake up how Fire Emblem rep works next game. If I had to bet one just one of these not getting in, it's her.
BONUS:
Would be shocked if they didn't happen:
Octoling
Bandana Dee
Dixie Kong
Waluigi
Certainly Possible:
Tom Nook
Noah
Paper Mario
Ashley
Funky Kong
Mio
Maaybe:
Midna
Skull Kid
Raven Beak
Impa
Unlikely:
Isaac
Krystal
Viridi
Oof:
Medusa
Hades
Chibi Robo
Lyn
Octoling
Bandana Dee
Dixie Kong
Waluigi
Certainly Possible:
Tom Nook
Noah
Paper Mario
Ashley
Funky Kong
Mio
Maaybe:
Midna
Skull Kid
Raven Beak
Impa
Unlikely:
Isaac
Krystal
Viridi
Oof:
Medusa
Hades
Chibi Robo
Lyn
Captain Toad, Cranky Kong, Magolor, K.K. Slider, Sylux, Geno, Oatchi, Louie, Marx, and Twintelle all have somewhat decent chances (i.e. would make it to at least Yellow on the above tldr chart.) for various factors, and could very easily be included come next game. Might delve into why if people are curious, though as it's not the question being asked here I'll leave it out for the time being.
)but it's worth noting.