stingers
Smash Obsessed
you heard it here first
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The North Carolina Melee Power Rankings! (Updated 2/11/10!)
- Thread starter Dr Peepee
- Start date
- Status
Foxy
Smash Master
just for you <3
stingers
Smash Obsessed
yyyyyyyyyyup
-ACE-
Gotem City Vigilante
Lol no offense Foxy but I had to sig that ****
Foxy
Smash Master
none taken
i deserve it for being such a f@g at bill's to you
i deserve it for being such a f@g at bill's to you
Dorsey
Banned via Warnings
It's kinda you that doesn't get it... did you not get my example? I was just trying to explain it to you haha
since we're basing this solely on character, I assume that we're comparing them by each character's full potential.. not with "people of the same skill level" like you suggested. There's a big difference between the two since we're only comparing characters.
and since we're basing this solely on character, character odds aren't going to change from match to match really..........which is why "basic odds" is not accurate. This is also why having a 10% chance does not mean winning 1/10 times. It means that you will go into each match with a 10% chance of winning. If you were going by "basic odds" and had a 10% chance of winning, then lost, you would then have an 11.111% chance of winning the next match. Nothing smash-related caused this gain in advantage, so I don't see why you would want to compare characters that way.
i drank a 12 pk of pbr tonight and smoked plenty of trees so excuse any typos or stupid things.....
l0zR=)
Smash Champion
Im on twigs side ****it!
Just cause i wanna be
Just cause i wanna be
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
lol no
if you were to roll a die 6 times, how many times would a 1 come up? It's not guaranteed but the odds point to 1 time. Each side has the same odds of coming up as the other, so each has a 1/6 chance. It may come up a few times, or it may come up none... but in terms of the actual odds... it evens out to 1/6 times.
Same concept with the 10% buddy... The outcome of one match doesn't effect the outcome of the next. The chance is still 10%.
So in 10 matches, there should be 1 instance where the character with 10% is the winner... if that weren't the case why the hell is there even a ratio/percentage?
if you were to roll a die 6 times, how many times would a 1 come up? It's not guaranteed but the odds point to 1 time. Each side has the same odds of coming up as the other, so each has a 1/6 chance. It may come up a few times, or it may come up none... but in terms of the actual odds... it evens out to 1/6 times.
Same concept with the 10% buddy... The outcome of one match doesn't effect the outcome of the next. The chance is still 10%.
So in 10 matches, there should be 1 instance where the character with 10% is the winner... if that weren't the case why the hell is there even a ratio/percentage?
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
I may just be some uneducated jerk-off but how about somebody explains the difference of these two examples to me.
if you play 10 matches, each with a 10% chance of winning... aren't the odds saying you'll win 1 match?
-ACE-
Gotem City Vigilante
We should probably chill on this, I'm sure we're giving other states a good LOL. Dittos on symmetrical stages where both players spawn at equal distances from the center are 50:50 if you disregard port advantage lol. Everything else is opinion.
Malk
Smash Champion
The odds are saying you'll win one match, BUT if the first match is played, and the favorite wins it, the odds will not be saying you'll win one in the next nine (one out of the ten overall matches). The odds will be saying you'll win one in the next ten. That's why theory behind odds is so annoying.
Sorry it's still not very clear. Here we have a 10 match set between marth and mewtwo (9:1). If all 10 matches were played and you came back you would expect mewtwo to have won one from the odds. That means mewtwo has a 10% chance to win. But if you come back right after the 2nd match and marth has won both, the expected results start to change. At that point, there are only 8 matches remaining, with mewtwo having a 10% chance to win each. Now on average the mewtwo will win .8 of the remaining matches, which still rounds to 1 but you see how it's changed?
lord karn
Smash Master
I don't really think matchups have much to do with probability. A 70-30 match up does not mean a character has a 70 percent compared to 30 percent chance of winning. The character with the 70 just has better options than the character with the 30. This is why I don't like assigning number difficulty to matchups. If a character has options so much better than the opposing character, he should not lose any matches at all if played correctly.
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
Maybe this can help. http://www.randomizer.org/form.htm
This is a number sequence randomizer that can have the same effect as what we're talking about. Assuming the 90%-10% thing is constant through the 10 matches.
Lets assign number 1 for Mewtwo. And numbers 2-10 for Marth.
For every set that 1 is the first number, it means mewtwo wins. 2-10, Marth wins. There is only a 10% chance of the 1 being first. Right?
Test #1- mewtwo wins 2 times.
Test #2- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #3- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #4- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #5- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #6- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #7- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #8- mewtwo wins 2 times.
Test #9- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #10- mewtwo wins 1 times.
thats 100 "matches" and mewtwo wins 9 times. 9/100= .09 rounded to the the nearest 10th is .1
.1= 10%
but I'm just trolling this ****. I actually agree with what Alex is talking about... which is why I say Sheik has a 7:3 advantage on Marth on SOME stages... otherwise it's 6:4 or maybe even 55:45
This is a number sequence randomizer that can have the same effect as what we're talking about. Assuming the 90%-10% thing is constant through the 10 matches.
Lets assign number 1 for Mewtwo. And numbers 2-10 for Marth.
For every set that 1 is the first number, it means mewtwo wins. 2-10, Marth wins. There is only a 10% chance of the 1 being first. Right?
Test #1- mewtwo wins 2 times.
Test #2- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #3- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #4- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #5- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #6- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #7- mewtwo wins 1 time.
Test #8- mewtwo wins 2 times.
Test #9- mewtwo wins 0 times.
Test #10- mewtwo wins 1 times.
thats 100 "matches" and mewtwo wins 9 times. 9/100= .09 rounded to the the nearest 10th is .1
.1= 10%
but I'm just trolling this ****. I actually agree with what Alex is talking about... which is why I say Sheik has a 7:3 advantage on Marth on SOME stages... otherwise it's 6:4 or maybe even 55:45
Dark Hart
Rejected by Azua
lol Brawl taunts 3
Ace was kinda of... not in his right mind? Foxy's the idiot there.
Foxy
Smash Master
Malk is right... and probability theory is a headache.
It SEEMS to make perfect sense that 90:10 means that in 10 matches, Mewtwo would win 1 - which is true. It also SEEMS to make perfect sense that if Mewtwo has lost 5 in a row, that he should win 1 in the next 5 (now a 20% chance of victory) to bring the odds back to balance. He'd have to win 1 in the next 5, or the probability is incorrect, right? But as I just said, that would bring him to a 20% with ratio for the next few matches, and we know the matchup is 90:10, NOT 80:20.
In the most extreme and obvious example, if Mewtwo loses 9 matches in a row, he is NOT guaranteed to win match 10! Now, if we were thinking like we were before, where logically he would win 1 of those remaining 5 matches, this would follow accordingly. But there's no way Mewtwo can bring his chances to 100:0, even if it IS just theory. Thinking like this isn't really wrong, but theory exists to help us rationalize and formalize ideas in accurate ways, which this CLEARLY does not do. So, even if it's correct on some plane of thought, that pattern does nothing for us and is worthless. Mewtwo will never be guaranteed to win a match against Marth, even if it makes the odds work out correctly.
And this is why you can't think of matchups in terms of predicted wins in series. While it's perfectly correct, it always leads to those trip-ups.
You HAVE to limit yourself to conceptualizing one match at a time, always. Mewtwo loses a match, he still has a 10% chance to win the next one. You CAN extend that to say he should now win 1 game from games 2 to 11, but that's useless and you'd have to continue like that forever (loses 10 games, he should win 1 from 11 to 21). He just has a flat 10% chance every game.
And since you can't predict anything with that matchup "probability", is pretty much reasons that you shouldn't consider it as a ratio at all, but rather a ranking of both characters' strengths and weaknesses in the matchup allocated from a total pool of 10 points.
You can call me a jerk or asshole as much as you like, though. But start saying that playing to win is dumb, and you start jumping on the smashball bandwagon.
It SEEMS to make perfect sense that 90:10 means that in 10 matches, Mewtwo would win 1 - which is true. It also SEEMS to make perfect sense that if Mewtwo has lost 5 in a row, that he should win 1 in the next 5 (now a 20% chance of victory) to bring the odds back to balance. He'd have to win 1 in the next 5, or the probability is incorrect, right? But as I just said, that would bring him to a 20% with ratio for the next few matches, and we know the matchup is 90:10, NOT 80:20.
In the most extreme and obvious example, if Mewtwo loses 9 matches in a row, he is NOT guaranteed to win match 10! Now, if we were thinking like we were before, where logically he would win 1 of those remaining 5 matches, this would follow accordingly. But there's no way Mewtwo can bring his chances to 100:0, even if it IS just theory. Thinking like this isn't really wrong, but theory exists to help us rationalize and formalize ideas in accurate ways, which this CLEARLY does not do. So, even if it's correct on some plane of thought, that pattern does nothing for us and is worthless. Mewtwo will never be guaranteed to win a match against Marth, even if it makes the odds work out correctly.
And this is why you can't think of matchups in terms of predicted wins in series. While it's perfectly correct, it always leads to those trip-ups.
You HAVE to limit yourself to conceptualizing one match at a time, always. Mewtwo loses a match, he still has a 10% chance to win the next one. You CAN extend that to say he should now win 1 game from games 2 to 11, but that's useless and you'd have to continue like that forever (loses 10 games, he should win 1 from 11 to 21). He just has a flat 10% chance every game.
And since you can't predict anything with that matchup "probability", is pretty much reasons that you shouldn't consider it as a ratio at all, but rather a ranking of both characters' strengths and weaknesses in the matchup allocated from a total pool of 10 points.
I don't care if it wasn't the most bro thing to do (and I still plan to make it up to him by being more manly), you cannot say that I'm an idiot for taking a chance at a good counterpick that someone suggested and Ace agreed to.
You can call me a jerk or asshole as much as you like, though. But start saying that playing to win is dumb, and you start jumping on the smashball bandwagon.
*P*L*U*R*
Smash Hero
Foxy
Smash Master
i love me some foxes on the last stop with no objects
*P*L*U*R*
Smash Hero
lol
I think I'm going to look up a tourney*** debate just for the fun of it.
Or start one on /v/
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
lol no. I've been saying each match's outcome has nothing to do with the previous.
Mewtwo could lose 50 in a row or he could win 50 in a row (though HIGHLY unlikely... it can happen). Each match has nothing to do with the last or the next.
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
no, you're just a **** for picking even THINKING of playing a banned stage just for the sake of camping him the entire time. There has never been a point in smash tournament history where Hyrule Temple was a legal counterpick stage... simply because of the reason you abused.
Long story short- I didn't need to be there to know what happened. You pussed out and threw out the option for the stage. ACE; in his ... slightly less sober... state of mind jokingly said yes and you continued to take advantage of it.
It's kind of like getting a girl drunk (or in your case MEGA DRUNK) so she'll have sex with you. It's a ***** was to do ****.
Dark Hart
Rejected by Azua
Foxy
Smash Master
I know, I was agreeing with you in my explanation. It wasn't directed specifically at you... just general talk about how annoying probability is.
You've got the right idea.
People play banned stages in tournament not THAT rarely, when fooling around or the like... it's perfectly legal if both players agree, so you shouldn't keep reiterated how banned it is.
I didn't throw out the option for the stage. I was thinking seriously about where to CP (FD was banned, was thinking Japes or maybe DL64) and I would never have even considered a banned stage. Some Brawl guy behind us yelled out "TEMPLE YEAH DO IT ON TEMPLE" and we laughed for a minute about it. Then I said jokingly that we should play it, and Ace was a cool guy and said yes. I'm not such a fag that I would jump on that, so I asked him again more seriously and repeatedly told him that I was going to laser camp him the whole game and he continually agreed. I figured he must either be too blazed to win anyways or he actually had a plan, so why not?
I completely understand what a douche move it was, but honestly, why do you guys get so angry about it? I'm called a tourneyfag when Ace and I were the ones not taking the set that seriously, and everyone whining about it is putting way too much emphasis on one tourney match. Neither of us were going to win money, we were both going to lose to Karn next round anyways.
But that gives it the wrong tone; seriously, I know it was ridiculous and even if he agreed over and over to it I should have been a "bro" and gone to a legal stage and tried my best to win game 3 there... but what happened is in the past, I'm still looking for ways to make it up to Ace by being less of a fag.
Nobody cares.
Seriously.
lord karn
Smash Master
You should have fought in the cave to see how long you can live!
Foxy
Smash Master
I tried that for a moment and Ganon punched my skull in and I died.
Didn't live too long.
Didn't live too long.
Alright, alright.
We get angry about it, Foxy, because you sort of took advantage of Ace's state of mind by going there.
Yes, you have play to win on your side, but that's sort of crossing the line. At least, it is to most people.
I don't wanna argue with you since it is in the past, but I'm pointing out why people are mad. Let's end this please.
Good thing I tried hard to forget probability after 7th grade. I guess ratios make sense everywhere in the world other than smashboards....we do probability weird here I guess, Boss Hog. I dunno what else to tell you.
Maybe we can talk about Falcon vs Peach? I've actually heard arguments both for and against Falcon in this argument.
Orrr, we could discuss something involving Jigglpyuff, as she's a rising superpower lately. Maybe with potential to go above Falcon and/or Peach?
We get angry about it, Foxy, because you sort of took advantage of Ace's state of mind by going there.
Yes, you have play to win on your side, but that's sort of crossing the line. At least, it is to most people.
I don't wanna argue with you since it is in the past, but I'm pointing out why people are mad. Let's end this please.
Good thing I tried hard to forget probability after 7th grade. I guess ratios make sense everywhere in the world other than smashboards....we do probability weird here I guess, Boss Hog. I dunno what else to tell you.
Maybe we can talk about Falcon vs Peach? I've actually heard arguments both for and against Falcon in this argument.
Orrr, we could discuss something involving Jigglpyuff, as she's a rising superpower lately. Maybe with potential to go above Falcon and/or Peach?
Foxy
Smash Master
No problem.
Also, I didn't know about his "state of mind" until a bit later. The situation was in NO WAY me consciously taking advantage of him - that's completely immoral. The only thing I thought I might be taking advantage of was how manly he is.
Falcon vs Peach isn't too bad for either character - Peach has some nice grab combos but Falcon has so much more priority when he is beneath Peach with careful spacing (and not jumping into dsmashes on platforms).
He can do nice combos, and has good guaranteed kills at nice percentages from grabs. His speed also makes it tough for a Peach that isn't really fast to space correctly.
Falcon's dead off the edge, though. Even more than usual.
Also, I didn't know about his "state of mind" until a bit later. The situation was in NO WAY me consciously taking advantage of him - that's completely immoral. The only thing I thought I might be taking advantage of was how manly he is.
Falcon vs Peach isn't too bad for either character - Peach has some nice grab combos but Falcon has so much more priority when he is beneath Peach with careful spacing (and not jumping into dsmashes on platforms).
He can do nice combos, and has good guaranteed kills at nice percentages from grabs. His speed also makes it tough for a Peach that isn't really fast to space correctly.
Falcon's dead off the edge, though. Even more than usual.
I think one of the arguments I read for Peach hurting Falcon is her dash attack beating his Nair. I'm not sure.
If that's true, Peach can control Falcon with turnips ( a little) and bait more stationary Nairs so she can beat them out.
She does have some turnip control regardless, and she can DI out of Falcon's worst combos besides the throw to knee at higher percents, so she'll live a while and Falcon will die earlier.
Dsmash.
If that's true, Peach can control Falcon with turnips ( a little) and bait more stationary Nairs so she can beat them out.
She does have some turnip control regardless, and she can DI out of Falcon's worst combos besides the throw to knee at higher percents, so she'll live a while and Falcon will die earlier.
Dsmash.
July 25th-26th I think (the saturday/Sunday around then).
You should come bro. Bring lotsa people. M2K said he's comin.
I miss you.
You should come bro. Bring lotsa people. M2K said he's comin.
I miss you.
Rawfuls
Smash Journeyman
the first time i ever saw a video of king playing jiggs i thought she was high tier, and now that mango is winning with her i dont see why she's not higher on the list. Great priority on areals, great safe gimp options, good recovery, her only downfall really is how quick she dies over the top of the stage. An issue that can be resolved by picking taller stages. I feel jiggs is just finally getting the credit she deserves
Vilt
Smash Lord
True dat Rawfulz.
Malk
Smash Champion
jiggz can't move
stingers
Smash Obsessed
jiggz is...amazing
marth then fox then falco then shiek=jiggs
imo
marth then fox then falco then shiek=jiggs
imo
Foxy
Smash Master
Fox
Falco
Marth, Shiek
Jiggs
Falcon
Peach
Falco
Marth, Shiek
Jiggs
Falcon
Peach
stingers
Smash Obsessed
marth so low is a god**** crime
falco is too easily gimped at high levels of play...and fox is too reliant on a too few number of safe approaches to be above marth...
falco is too easily gimped at high levels of play...and fox is too reliant on a too few number of safe approaches to be above marth...
Boss Hog (stack it up)
Smash Ace
falcon > peach?
HELL. no.
HELL. no.
*P*L*U*R*
Smash Hero
Wow, I know nothing about any of these characters. Jeez, I suck at smash.
Zero_Gamer
Smash Master
A part of me says Marth is the very best, but another part says he could be lower. Doesn't Marth get camped pretty hard by Fox/Shiek/Samus?
-ACE-
Gotem City Vigilante
I play Karn more than anyone lol we always go back and forth, be it Marth or Fox.
I'm through with rehashing the hyrule incident. I was simply in a "do whatever you want just bring that sh*t" sort of mood lol.
- Status