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Survivor: Gabon - featuring Melee champion Ken

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Praxis

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That may mean absolutely nothing but it has raised my curiosity and I want to check credibility....so

Where did you get that?
A spoiler forum (survivorsucks.com). The important bit though is that the images were from the previews at the end of episode 11 IIRC; you can pause it and see for yourself. I just hadn't analyzed it in depth.

It was the same preview that showed the camp burning (which hasn't happened yet either).

Spoiler comments:
So, from that image, we know Bob gets voted out next episode. It's going to come down to Ken or Matty as the target when it's final five- and I think Matty will have less support, as the physical threat. So in all likelyhood, Matty's going home. UNLESS...he wins immunity, in which case, Ken goes home, unless he can talk one of the others into voting someone else off (unlikely).

Basically, it all comes down to whether or not Matty wins immunity. If Matty gets voted out, then Ken goes to final four, where he has to win immunity to get to the final round, unless Sugar sticks with him and they just take out Susie.
 

Wariario

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Ken ruined his chances tonight. He and Crystal should have refused the offer and voted for Corinne. He knew they wanted Matty gone, so it was in his best interest to call the bluff and make sure no one else in his alliance was fooled by the fake idol. If he's right, Corinne is gone. If he's wrong, Matty's gone (along with the idol), and we already know that Ken wouldn't mind seeing Matty go. By voting for Matty, his alliance will no longer be so willing to trust him, and I don't think he'll make the final three now.

This really sucks.
 

Funen1

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Ken's blunder was not in worrying that the idol was real. His error was mathematical.
He should've had crystal vote Matty, and he should've voted for himself (the only neutral choice) to force a tie. If the idol was real, Matty goes home. If the idol is fake, it goes into a tie runoff, and the Fang 5 get to all vote Corrine again. But retrospect is 20/20.
You can't vote for yourself.

Seeing all these different perspectives on Ken's situation really scrambles my mind. I do feel that, even if he was trying to gain Corrine and Bob's trust, he may have made a mistake voting for Matty (as others have said, if Bob's idol was real, voting for Corrine would have been nullified anyway), and he may have made it much more difficult to earn not just Matty's vote in the final TC, but possibly also Sugar's.

However, I disagree that Ken may be on the verge of elimination in the coming episode. We can assume that Crystal will stay with Ken no matter what (provided the two are still in, of course). And if Ken's previewed ill-will toward Bob doesn't get too out of hand, he may still side with him. Given these conditions, then the alliance numbers are tied, which would mean that Immunity Challenges would, once again, severely affect how the game continues. Of course, if Ken does not side with Bob, then he will have to really tread carefully with the other Fang members. If Ken realizes how the latter situation would affect him, however, than he may be inclined to side with Bob anyway.

Each of the above scenarios does get me thinking about how Ken will play after next week's episode. I will state now that the following thoughts will be situational, depending on who is left after next week. As I mentioned above, Ken and Crystal will probably stick together until they either make it to the finals or one of them is voted out. Sugar's II is always a double-edged sword, but I want to say that the week after next is the last chance anyone has of playing it. Whoever is left at that point, it would theoretically be safest to get rid of her at the final 4, provided she doesn't win Immunity (with this situation, the others may stray from trying to vote her out this coming week for fear of accidentally getting rid of one of their own). Matty is obviously a physical threat, but at this point Ken should really be careful about trying voting him out again. I imagine he'll do it at some point, but he should try to maximize the benefit for himself in the process. As for Bob, other posters have mentioned the possibility of a blindside in the final 4, a move which will probably go into motion no matter who else is left. If Bob survives next week, he'll really have to try to get numbers on his side (Sugar and Susie?) if he truly wants to get to the finals (at which point he's pretty much won the game, due to the makeup of the current jury). That leaves Susie, perhaps a bigger wildcard than she was back during the second tribal switch. Based on the provided Youtube links, Susie is trying to blindside both Matty and Ken, and at the same time be nice to them so she may earn their jury votes. However, Ken believes that Susie is really focused on playing the game, and I wouldn't put it past her to side with Ken and Crystal if she feels that is her best option. I still don't know too much about her current strategies (she received very little mention this week), so I don't know exactly what is going through her head, but odds are Ken does. If he needs Susie to keep the numbers, he may not have to work too hard to do it, especially if it involves the idea of blindsiding Matty and/or Bob in the process.

So overall, the scenarios I've described certainly give Ken at least some room to recover. He may not be in the best spot right now, but not as bad as it could be. He'll still have to be mindful of what the others are doing, but I think Ken still has a shot at making it to the finals.

Of course, Immunity challenges screw strategies over like no other, so don't take everything I've said to heart.
 

MikeHaggarTHAKJB

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get ***** corrine
look at how ******** she is
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/
"but we're the cool kids they're mutant losers! ;("
that's a paradox since the "mutant losers" are WINNING THE GAME. A morale like "no johns" would be to harsh on that arrogant little *******.

anyway, despite how happy i am about corrine being gone and showing clips that let me laugh at her stupidity a little more.... I was dissapointed in this episode b/c of how stupid ken played. He should've realized it was fake. He didn't even consider it. Wtf. >.>
"How gay?"

Although I'm not saying that's homophobic at all, I remember you being pretty sensitive about homophobia a while back.
yhea i didn't mean anything towards homosexuals when i said that lol
when i said it in that context i didnt even think about the fact that the word has anything to do with homsexuals :laugh:
 

Wariario

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@Funen1

Ken doesn't want to side with Bob. Look at the jury. If Bob's in the final three, he will win. Ken needs to eliminate Bob before that happens, and it would be foolish of Ken to openly side with him against his old alliance. His only play now is to try to smooth things over with his old alliance and hope that he comes out on the winning side when they inevitably split.

If Ken makes the final three, and Bob isn't there, I think he'll win. However, Matty, Sugar, and Susie are very likely mad at Ken right now, and Crystal has to be second-guessing Ken's strategy at this point, so it will take something crazy for Ken to even make the final three I think.

Basically, Ken needs a Smash Ball.
 

clowsui

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Good post on srk by Hitaro0 that sums up Ken's situation pretty well, imo:

I don't get this. Either that or I can guess it correctly and feel really cocky.

Ken and Crystal agreed to vote for Matty because Bob told them that he has the Immunity Idol that Marcus threw into sea, but Ken proposed to Crystal to instead vote for Corrine so Bob would be forced to use his "Hidden Immunity Idol" to save her and get rid of Matty, thus eliminating two of the biggest threats (the "Hidden Immunity Idol" and Matty) in one vote and clearing their names from their allies (making the others believe that they never backstabbed them). There's a clip of Crystal doubting her choice and would rather vote for Matty because she doubts that the "Hidden Immunity Idol" is real. In the end, Crystal votes for Corrine and Ken votes for Matty. Next episode preview shows Ken complaining to Bob that he ****ed his game up by lying about the idol.

Let's start from the top. It should be ****ing obvious that the "Immunity Idol" was fake. Even disregarding the fact that Randy had every reason to know about the Idol (he was right next to Marcus, one of Marcus' closest allies) which would've saved his *** like HELL the last time (with what he would believe to be two hidden idols, he could've stayed in the game with Corrine and Bob up to the 3v3) and also disregarding the fact that everybody knows that Bob already made one convincing fake idol with weird-*** reasons like "forgot everything about everything" and "Marcus wanted to keep it hidden from everybody", the fact that Marcus himself didn't use it vs. Crazy Susie should be proof enough.

Second, Ken's "plan". It just plain doesn't make sense. He wanted Bob to be forced to be used his "Hidden Immunity Idol" by not voting for Matty. Yet he never told Bob or Corrine. Therefore, they never had an incentive to play the idol. Simply put, his "plan" failed because of Bob and Corrine's plan...which he knew about.

Next, the vote. There's a clip of Crystal doubting the idol is real, doubting Ken's plan. Yet she still votes for Corinne, according to Ken's plan, and Ken votes against Matty, against his own plan. This is simply backwards. Plus, Crystal would've discussed that (obvious) possibility with Ken. Which we never see.

Finally, Ken's situation. He complains to Bob that he's in deep ****. But that's also very weird; Ken's actually in a pretty good position, and Bob's the one in very deep ****. Ken still has Crystal for almost **** sure (only doubtful part is Ken's plan, which should've been discussed and a concluding result ending with today's vote, which would completely explain today's backwards vote), and there's no reason for Sugar to go haywire and team up with Matty and Sugar since she already knows that Matty's planning to split with Ken (therefore Ken's vote should be reasonable to her) and she already said that her best option would be getting 2nd and Ken 1st.

Bob, however, is all alone now, being the sole Onion (OG Kota) member, and he's still in the firing line since he is still a "physical and voting threat". Right now, Bob's only long-shot ally is Ken. I really doubt that he'd team up with Susie and Matty, since that would force him to keep a physical threat for a bit too long. Ken is also the only one, with Corrine and Bob, that voted for Matty in the last vote, which means he also sort of owes Ken, since he could think that he put Ken in a "1v1v4" situation or something.

Extra: Note that Ken's votes are very discernable to the others, so his vote is not secret at all. Plus, iirc (I'll check this later, when vids are uploaded), there was a second vote that was very simillar to Ken's. If it was Crystal's vote, we get an interesting ballgame.

So here's what I think: Ken and Crystal did discuss about the possibility of a fake Idol. They discussed and decided that this was best course of action to take in all four cases;

-The Idol is real, and is played to protect Corinne.

Matty and the "Immunity Idol" are out. Ken's vote makes Corinne and Bob trust him more, but not Crystal, since she didn't vote for Matty. Worst case scenario is two separate teams: Bob, Corinne and Susie vs. Ken, Crystal and Sugar. However, with Ken's trust, they might never recruit Susie, and they might think it is Bob, Corinne, Ken vs. Crystal, Sugar, Susie, while it is really Bob + Corinne vs. Ken + Crystal (+Sugar?) vs. Susie (+Sugar?). In that last scenario, Bob is out ASAP since everybody seems him as a complete threat (regardless of where Sugar is), Corinne is out next/before if Bob gets Immunity since she would get the most votes (3 votes out of 5 or 6), and Ken and Crystal go to Finals with either Sugar or Susie (most likely Sugar since she still has the real Hidden Immunity Idol). Worst case scenario is Immunity Challenges ****ing everything up, but if that's too worrisome for Ken + Crystal, they could just get rid of Susie to keep their trust until they get rid of Corinne/Bob.

-The Idol is real, and is not played to protect Corinne

Corinne is gone. Bob, stuck by himself, is either trapped in the same situation as above, except with one ally short/recruited. However, Matty gets out ASAP now. With Bob desperate, he will get a Bob + Ken + Crystal vs. Matty + Susie, with Sugar somewhere in there. Bob most likely plays the Idol to get rid of Matty at some point or other. Sugar has no reason to play her own Idol (she's not in the firing range, nor does she know of Bob's Idol, and she probably wants to get rid of Matty too), and I have no clue what rule happens with ties or double Immunity Idols ruling out every single vote, but either situation is not likely to happen, since Ken could convince Bob to use his Idol, since he doesn't know for sure if Sugar already has the Idol/has used the Idol. Although he went to Exile and didn't find it, Ken could convince him that Suger doesn't have/used the idol and that she won't vote for Matty. After the "3v3" day, he goes back to situation 1, except with one extra, bonus day with the Idol.
Immunity Challenges are the only twist possible.

-The Idol is fake, and used to "save" Corinne (in other words, is revealed to be fake).

Same as situation 2, except with Sugar having a much bigger role in the "Matty or Bob?" vote. Plus, the added bonus of Bob "putting Ken in that horrible position", faking an Immunity Idol making him more likely to vote with Ken. Sugar can vote for Bob and get the backstab vote, giving one or two more vote to Ken in the finals (he never voted for either Corinne or Bob) or she can go into the "tied vote" situation, which I presume both of the players in a tie vote are at a risk to be kicked out (although I don't know) meaning this could get Matty out immediately instead of him being a bigger threat in the Immunity Challenges, plus it would give Sugar Matty's vote (Sugar never voted for Matty).
But that's just for one episode.
Immunity Challenges are also the only problematic situation.

-The Idol is fake, and is not used to "save" Corinne (is not revealed to be fake)

Bob can play the "I have an eye-doll whoo" game, but this leads to the same as situation 2, except with hidden guilt about the Idol for Ken (instead of visible, which would just kill the "Idol" there and then, making it the same as Situation 3), and means that he'll just have to show whether he has the Idol or not when he's in the firing line. And if he's in the firing line, it's most likely that Matty, Susie and Sugar are going to be on the opposite end before Ken/Crystal.
Again, Immunity Challenges are a *****.

So to recap: To maximize on these possible situations, Ken and only Ken has to vote for Corinne. Crystal needs/ed to keep her respect with Susie, Matty and Sugar, in case the Idol was real, in case Sugar changed her mind and got crazy, and act as a "fake ally" that might backstab or spy if she wants to.
Ken has to be the one to do this, because he's the more "innocent-looking" one, plus he can manipulate everything better. Either that, or he convinces Crystal that this is true just so he can get the "I didn't backstab" votes. If he's really lucky, Crystal could've noticed that she has almost no chance to win anyway and just wanted to maximize Ken's chances at winning.

So in the end, Bob has to try to win pretty much every single Immunity challenge. So does Matty, which means one of them is probably gone next episode. And Ken is still running this ****.

Anyway, that's my take. It's very possible that I might just have everything about this situation wrong, but that's the most logical conclusion I can think of for now. I still really want to stop watching this show, but I've noticed that the game itself is pretty interesting, even disregarding the "semi-vidja gaieme" relation. It's just the producing, editing, and everything else that sucks about the show that sucks.

By the way, Ken got loads of airtime that episode. Lots in the beggining, not so much in middle (he wasn't too impressive during the challenges, but still edged some others in airtime), and lots at the end; heck, the camera was constantly on him when Jeff was asking the questions to other players. And the very end was completely focused on him (with a bit of Crystal).



tl;dr
Ken is not in a ****ty situation. In fact, I think he's in the best situation outside of maybe Matty or Bob (only one of the two), just because they're the "threat" characters. Sugar's also odd but has no reason to backstab Ken.
Predictions: Bob or Matty, whoever doesn't win Immunity, gets voted out next episode.

Oh, and if it isn't clear yet, if this is true, the only reason none of this could've been aired is because it would've "spoiled the show" or something, me guesses.




By the way, voting off Matty ASAP means that he would've gotten Bob + Corinne + Susie vs. Ken + Crystal + Sugar, where Sugar's Immunity Idol would've scored a win or opted for whatever tie situation this game has, but the fact that the "Immunity Idol" could've been real means that both of them voting for Matty would mean that they'd pretty much be stuck with Bob + Corinne + Ken + Crystal, maybe Sugar thrown in there, where Ken probably wouldn't've won the finals.
My guess is that Crystal didn't vote for Matty because it was too risky, what with Sugar and possible "Immunity Idol".

But it still seems odd.
After reading this...it's incredibly probable lol.

Ken may have thought of this...which is why he said "I may be the greatest strategist in Survivor history."
 

TK Wolf

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go to cbs.com

Also, it will definitely be final 3 and here's why:
Corrine said "I have 9 days at Ponderosa." There is a vote every 3 days, which means 3 more votes, leaving us at the final 3.
 

TheBuzzSaw

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Goodness, how is this thread active at this time of night? I'm up feeding my baby. What's YOUR guys' excuses?
 

Feeline

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Also, it will definitely be final 3 and here's why:
Corrine said "I have 9 days at Ponderosa." There is a vote every 3 days, which means 3 more votes, leaving us at the final 3.
But the last two (in the final episode) go faster, I think they both happen over a period of two days. This leaves time for the final 2/3 to burn the camp, party, and then it's jury questioning.
 

TheNix

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Things didn't exactly go smoothly for Ken in this episode, but I think people are over-analyzing the situation. I don't think it would be difficult for Ken to talk to Matty and explain that the vote was done only because he knew that Corinne was gone anyway, and he wanted to get more on Bob's good side.

The only thing that concerns me is Ken's behavior in the preview; he has to be smooth to get back into a winning position. That said, the previews always have a way of portraying something that doesn't actually matter.
 

Funen1

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@Funen1

Ken doesn't want to side with Bob. Look at the jury. If Bob's in the final three, he will win. Ken needs to eliminate Bob before that happens, and it would be foolish of Ken to openly side with him against his old alliance. His only play now is to try to smooth things over with his old alliance and hope that he comes out on the winning side when they inevitably split.

If Ken makes the final three, and Bob isn't there, I think he'll win. However, Matty, Sugar, and Susie are very likely mad at Ken right now, and Crystal has to be second-guessing Ken's strategy at this point, so it will take something crazy for Ken to even make the final three I think.

Basically, Ken needs a Smash Ball.
I'm pretty sure Ken knows that Bob will win if he makes it to the finals. When I said he may side with Bob, it would probably only be for the short term (I mentioned that Bob will likely be blindsided at the final 4 if he makes it that far in the first place). Something that might happen is should Bob, Ken, and Crystal all survive next week (meaning Matty, Sugar, or Susie are eliminated), and if the relations among them all remain decent, then these three may be able to go together for one more week just to ensure they have the numbers for as long as possible. Of course, if Ken manages to make peace with any of the other Fang members, I'm confident he'll stick with them over Bob. I agree that reconciling with any of the other three would probably be safer - as long as Bob and Matty are gone, Ken just has to make sure he gets to the finals and he's set. Regaining his alliance would give him stronger numbers; Bob would just be a backup plan in case he can't do that at all.
 

OmegaXXII

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If the previews for next week focus on Ken, he's most likely out. :(

Well don't worry to much for now, next person to be voted out of gabon is most likely Bob since he's a threat to everybody including Matty, but then again if Matty finds out (from Crystal) that Ken voted for him then a feud is most likely to start between them two, and that wouldn't be good for Ken now would it?

YAY!, Corrine is OUT!!
:p
 

OmegaXXII

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My bad, days are going so quick these days.

But one question there are 6 remaining Survivor

(Ken, Susie, Sugar, Matty, Susie and Crystal)

So you mean to tell me that the season finale will consist of 5 survivor instead of 3!?

Also I just noticed it's going to be a Sunday.
 

M.K

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My bad, days are going so quick these days.

But one question there are 6 remaining Survivor

(Ken, Susie, Sugar, Matty, Susie and Crystal)

So you mean to tell me that the season finale will consist of 5 survivor instead of 3!?

Also I just noticed it's going to be a Sunday.
One will be voted out next Thursday (5)
Two-hour finale, 1 voted out each hour (3)
Live Finale is Final 3.
 

OmegaXXII

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One will be voted out next Thursday (5)
Two-hour finale, 1 voted out each hour (3)
Live Finale is Final 3.

I figured it was going to be a 2-hour special just like the premiere, though I didn't think that would happen since it will be LIVE!


I'm still puzzled though, after next week's elimination that leaves 5 remaining, and yet you mentioned each hour 'one' will be eliminated each hour when in fact it's only two hours, please emphasize.


Not exactly, she actually said that she hates everyone except Bob and Ken during the credits.

It's true, Corrine only said she liked Ken because Ken actually went along with her plan to eliminate Matty and keep Bob as the strongest player who would have been left, but since Bob had immunity last night, Corrine thought it would be perfect to take out Matty and convince others which was Ken to try to convince the other to take out Matty.
 

kr3wman

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That doesn't make any sense. They go down to Final 5 on Dec 11th. Then what is it a 2 hour final ep and they do final 4? huh?

edit: and is the 14th show live?
it will probably be a 2 hour finale or something so that they get rid of 2 people.

and yes, when they announce the winner it's live.
 

OmegaXXII

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That doesn't make any sense. They go down to Final 5 on Dec 11th. Then what is it a 2 hour final ep and they do final 4? huh?

edit: and is the 14th show live?

See, I'm not the only one around here who lost in transition, I need some explantion on how this is going to go down.
 

LivewiresXe

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Okay, here's how a F5 finale usually breaks down, this is going off of the Cook Islands and Fiji finales, by the way.

The finale is 2 hours, with a 1 hour "Reunion" special right afterwards. First, they do the normal thing of the episode, y'know reward challenge, then immunity, then tribal council where someone goes home, and they're down to 4. Then, they often go through a "rites of passage" where they reflect on everybody who was voted out so far and they collect their torches and...do something with them, usually commencing in burning the torches somehow. Following that they go to a Final Immunity Challenge, then to tribal council, after which they're down to 3. After THAT, the Final 3 usually burns the camp, before heading to the final tribal council. The jury then asks the final 3 questions, they answer, the jury votes for a winner, Probst walks off with the votes, it switches over to the live Reunion stage where he reads the votes for the winner, winner jumps up and celebrates, then it switches to the live Reunion.
 

OmegaXXII

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Okay, here's how a F5 finale usually breaks down, this is going off of the Cook Islands and Fiji finales, by the way.

The finale is 2 hours, with a 1 hour "Reunion" special right afterwards. First, they do the normal thing of the episode, y'know reward challenge, then immunity, then tribal council where someone goes home, and they're down to 4. Then, they often go through a "rites of passage" where they reflect on everybody who was voted out so far and they collect their torches and...do something with them, usually commencing in burning the torches somehow. Following that they go to a Final Immunity Challenge, then to tribal council, after which they're down to 3. After THAT, the Final 3 usually burns the camp, before heading to the final tribal council. The jury then asks the final 3 questions, they answer, the jury votes for a winner, Probst walks off with the votes, it switches over to the live Reunion stage where he reads the votes for the winner, winner jumps up and celebrates, then it switches to the live Reunion.

Hmm..... I See, so you are saying that it will consist of 2 hours followed by a "1 hour reunion" for a total of 3 hours right..? or did I catch it wrong.
 
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