However, I don't think he's ever been incredibly wrong yet either.
He's just someone to keep an eye on until he's proven himself untrustworthy, I suppose.
Except he has. He's gotten a huge amount of DLC wrong for other games too. He got the entirety of Minecraft wrong, and when it was getting close to the final release of Ultimate, magically "Square-Enix and Minecraft content might be DLC". With how extremely long it is coupled with leakbait being a thing, he's starting to backpedal too often.
He also hasn't gotten any Smash DLC right, and he's had more than one chance. He's doing really badly here right now. Writing him off wouldn't be fair, but he's 0/2 at this point and hasn't stopped being that way, and that's not even including how badly he screwed up during the February direct(ignoring Grand Prix, which was actual leakbait and everybody fell for it anyway among leakers).
And this is why you watch out for putting people through the wringer.
You're the one saying that he risked his reputation. That's like saying someone risked his passing grade on a test entirely on the last question.
Yes, people are taking what he says seriously and sees him as failing to bring real information. He got literally two things right in the February direct, as pointed out above. That's a horrid track record. He also did take a huge risk by throwing all his eggs in one basket. He didn't have to say "this is definitely coming". He could've just said he heard rumors of it and he'd be fine. So yes, he did risk his reputation by specifically doing things as foolishly as possible. Most have heavily condemned him, and it's for good reasons. It's really hard for many to trust him right now(again, Grand Prix aside, the only part everyone would get wrong anyway).
He got Pikmin 3 and the Zelda game not being Link's Awakening in the Direct wrong. Bear in Mind, Vergeben was one of the first to leak the existence of Link's Awakening to begin with back in 2017. Verge's official story, which you can verify with
ZenythSmash
, is that his source expected Cadence of Hyrule to be revealed before Link's Awakening and described it as "a small scale 2D Zelda game coming to the eShop". It's up to you to believe it or not.
What he got right, that I remember, is an Ubisoft game getting revealed and SMM2.
Which just shows how non-credible he is lately. Getting a couple things right isn't good enough if he makes it clear "Yes, this will happen". He absolutely risked his reputation here. The problem is that instead of being smart and saying they're rumors, though he feels they're likely real, it'd have been fine. People believe bad sources. They're only human. But that's not what he did. He put himself on a high pedestal instead, risking everything with hard statements. It's not surprising people are having a hard time trusting him now. Coupled with the constant backpedaling and excuses, it gets worse and worse.
I'm all for the benefit of the doubt, but he threw himself in a bad position regardless of that. I really don't see any good reason to treat him as credible for DLC right now. There's too much wrong at this time.
Never heard of the story you just told me, but he still believed a bad source about Link's Awakening. This is a problem because he could be believing bad sources right now. He believed some bad ones during base(where's Minecraft again?), he believed some during DLC(look at that SE character showing up before any other Fighter's Pass characters). There's a point when it's clear he's simply given bad information. It's not necessarily the case, but the stars aren't exactly aligning for him right now. He's in grain of salt territory after that disaster of a direct.