toasty
Smash Hero
I'm genetically predisposed to seek em out, son!
-
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SMASHPOCALYPSE:: SPOC IX in February? Link to SPOC VIII results in OP
- Thread starter Scar
- Start date
SwiftBass
Smash Hero
yea like if them prices are like that for another 3-6 weeks I may have a shot at going. Even if in that amount of time they dun go up like crazy I will not be knocked out of the running just yet. I have a feeling they will SHOOT up within that time though =P
pockyD
Smash Legend
for the umpteenth time, that's not how plane tickets work
just see the post on this page for proof
toasty
Smash Hero
@ Swift:
HAVE FAITH! YOU MUST BELIEEEVE ^_^
It would be so amazing to chill with NY/PA/NJ/CT/MA/etc at Genesis.....................and then have all of you guys come down to SoVa a month later for my final tourney ever
>_>
<_<
maybe?
HAVE FAITH! YOU MUST BELIEEEVE ^_^
It would be so amazing to chill with NY/PA/NJ/CT/MA/etc at Genesis.....................and then have all of you guys come down to SoVa a month later for my final tourney ever
>_>
<_<
maybe?
pockyD
Smash Legend
and forget about whether it's "worth it"; as long as you can afford it, it WILL be "worth it"
there will not be another tournament like this one!
there will not be another tournament like this one!
SwiftBass
Smash Hero
people said the same thing about pound 3. I agree with plank this will be either the new greatest tourney of all time or the biggest bust evar.
pockyD
Smash Legend
was pound 3 a disappointment or something? i thought it was easily worth whatever i paid
SwiftBass
Smash Hero
no it wasnt by any means, but like something like it DID occur.......I'd like to think that ROM and genesis(seemingly) are comparable. ROM not so much in respect to entrants but still VERY high level of epic/hype and multi region/country participation.
In short, I feel that ur former statement suggests that there will never be another epic large tourney. Which I think is un-true
pockyD
Smash Legend
800 + pre-reg'd
there has never been a tournament that came close to this level of epic
ROM was even smaller than pound 3, and was thrown together in like 3 weeks
there has never been a tournament that came close to this level of epic
ROM was even smaller than pound 3, and was thrown together in like 3 weeks
JFox
Smash Hero
oh great pockyD, knower of all things, plz explain to us all how plane ticket prices work...
LOL all i know is i bought tickets off hotwire.com for $221. Now its a few months later and that same flight costs $400.
LOL all i know is i bought tickets off hotwire.com for $221. Now its a few months later and that same flight costs $400.
pockyD
Smash Legend
The gist of it is that demand fluctuates wildly in the airline market (because for example, vacations are booked super far in advance whereas business trips are often booked days in advanced), and due to competition, airlines have to vary their prices over time periods in order to ensure that...
- others don't corner the market for people buying in a certain time range
- they sell all their tickets (since an unsold seat is pretty much money lost; it's not like they can hold that stock)
- they get as much money for each ticket they sell as they can
I don't think there's more than 10 people out there, even directly involved in the industry, that can explain how the algorithm works in general, but the fact is if you have prices strictly increase with time, you will NEVER be able to get the people to pay the high prices that we naturally associate with last-minute travel, but are really just based on other factors influencing demand (i.e. consider how much food at mcdonald's in an airport costs vs a regular mcdonald's)
...and I hope you weren't seriously thinking that your TWO data points indicated correlation, much less causation
I probably put way too much thought into this post, and there's no reason I should even be awake at all right now... oh well; what's done is done
- others don't corner the market for people buying in a certain time range
- they sell all their tickets (since an unsold seat is pretty much money lost; it's not like they can hold that stock)
- they get as much money for each ticket they sell as they can
I don't think there's more than 10 people out there, even directly involved in the industry, that can explain how the algorithm works in general, but the fact is if you have prices strictly increase with time, you will NEVER be able to get the people to pay the high prices that we naturally associate with last-minute travel, but are really just based on other factors influencing demand (i.e. consider how much food at mcdonald's in an airport costs vs a regular mcdonald's)
...and I hope you weren't seriously thinking that your TWO data points indicated correlation, much less causation
I probably put way too much thought into this post, and there's no reason I should even be awake at all right now... oh well; what's done is done
Inconceivable!
JFox
Smash Hero
lol pockyd you are such an elitist without a cause...
I understand that they are going to try and sell every seat they have, and that in order to do so they will often decrease the price dramatically a few days before a flight. However, the general undeniable trend when you are looking at ticket prices is they are less expensive if you buy them far in advance. This is common knowledge, no algorithm required. If you yourself were buying tickets, would you try and buy early, or would you pick any random day because "the likelihood of my prediction being 100% is nearly impossible due to the fluctuation and overall unpredictability of the consumer"
Now sure people can wait til the day before the flight and hope that they get lucky with a cheap unsold ticket. But doing this is very risky, you have no idea how much it will cost the day before. If its not cheap enough, I guess you're not going.
Really you are just playing it safe buying early. Typically prices follow a trend. They are cheap, then hit a peak, and than prices begin to drop until the airline sells out all tickets for that flight. How much they drop after the peak is a lot harder to predict than anything else.
I'm giving practical advice- buying early is typically the safest way to find the cheapest tickets. You are here just to argue. This is why people have a problem with you- you argue for the sake of argument even when it is impractical to do so.
I understand that they are going to try and sell every seat they have, and that in order to do so they will often decrease the price dramatically a few days before a flight. However, the general undeniable trend when you are looking at ticket prices is they are less expensive if you buy them far in advance. This is common knowledge, no algorithm required. If you yourself were buying tickets, would you try and buy early, or would you pick any random day because "the likelihood of my prediction being 100% is nearly impossible due to the fluctuation and overall unpredictability of the consumer"
Now sure people can wait til the day before the flight and hope that they get lucky with a cheap unsold ticket. But doing this is very risky, you have no idea how much it will cost the day before. If its not cheap enough, I guess you're not going.
Really you are just playing it safe buying early. Typically prices follow a trend. They are cheap, then hit a peak, and than prices begin to drop until the airline sells out all tickets for that flight. How much they drop after the peak is a lot harder to predict than anything else.
I'm giving practical advice- buying early is typically the safest way to find the cheapest tickets. You are here just to argue. This is why people have a problem with you- you argue for the sake of argument even when it is impractical to do so.
Sensei
Smash Lord
We should all just ride the smash bus (****). lol
Scar
#HarveyDent
ya i wouldnt even argue typically, it is safer to buy earlier. of course safer isn't always better, but it is always safer. miss u j
pockyD
Smash Legend
Ticket prices don't start strictly increasing until about 2-3 weeks before the date of the flight
Yes, what you believe is "common knowledge", but that doesn't even come close to making it true (see: half the things on mythbusters)
And I have no doubt what you're "trying" to do, but you are being a little bit too dense if you don't think I'm "trying" to do the same thing. I've really spent almost every week the past 4 years looking for plane tickets, trying to squeeze every penny just to get home for thanksgiving or Christmas. Honestly, tell me how many times in your life you've been responsible for purchasing a plane ticket; if you legitimately tell me it's more than 5, I will remain skeptical, but I will go ahead and move along since honestly, nobody outside of your or I cares because everybody likes to do things on their own schedule anyway (which is the basis of why ticket prices go up and down instead of strictly up).
You're giving "practical advice" that simply isn't true... seriously, just google it up for like 5 minutes and it's pretty plainly obvious. For example, this (see analysis examples) is a very "interesting" read if you actually care about the subject
If you drop your preconceived notion that I'm trolling you, then you'd realize that I'm not doing that at all... Just because you're wrong doesn't mean I'm out to get you
Yes, what you believe is "common knowledge", but that doesn't even come close to making it true (see: half the things on mythbusters)
And I have no doubt what you're "trying" to do, but you are being a little bit too dense if you don't think I'm "trying" to do the same thing. I've really spent almost every week the past 4 years looking for plane tickets, trying to squeeze every penny just to get home for thanksgiving or Christmas. Honestly, tell me how many times in your life you've been responsible for purchasing a plane ticket; if you legitimately tell me it's more than 5, I will remain skeptical, but I will go ahead and move along since honestly, nobody outside of your or I cares because everybody likes to do things on their own schedule anyway (which is the basis of why ticket prices go up and down instead of strictly up).
You're giving "practical advice" that simply isn't true... seriously, just google it up for like 5 minutes and it's pretty plainly obvious. For example, this (see analysis examples) is a very "interesting" read if you actually care about the subject
If you drop your preconceived notion that I'm trolling you, then you'd realize that I'm not doing that at all... Just because you're wrong doesn't mean I'm out to get you
JFox
Smash Hero
pocky, how is what you are saying "advice"? Are you advising that people buy according to their own schedules because the ticket prices are too unpredictable to be bothered going out of your way and buying early? If that is your advice, fine you aren't trolling, but I disagree.
This year alone I've helped out many people with ticket info (Mango, Zhu, Lovage, Eggm, Jman, etc.) I'm flying 3 times this summer, all of which I've bought tix for already, one being genesis, the two others being international. So I'm not ignorant by any means.
My point is simply that there are patterns. Tickets start low- peak out, than drop until tix are sold out. If they sell out before dropping far below the peak- you're **** outta luck. So you're basically counting on that flight not selling out- which is very risky considering genesis is in July, a huge travel month.
This year alone I've helped out many people with ticket info (Mango, Zhu, Lovage, Eggm, Jman, etc.) I'm flying 3 times this summer, all of which I've bought tix for already, one being genesis, the two others being international. So I'm not ignorant by any means.
My point is simply that there are patterns. Tickets start low- peak out, than drop until tix are sold out. If they sell out before dropping far below the peak- you're **** outta luck. So you're basically counting on that flight not selling out- which is very risky considering genesis is in July, a huge travel month.
pockyD
Smash Legend
My advice is to NOT simply jump in and buy tickets as soon as you know your desired dates of travel, if your goal is to minimize cost (I know that's not the goal for a lot of people, including sometimes even for me nowadays - peace of mind does count for something). Watch the prices over some time, and/or do some outside research to get a general idea of what the cost will be, and then buy whenever you see it near the low end of the spectrum
This is sort of biased because if you have already bought tickets as you claim, then you already paid the price and are probably unaware of any further price changes (see that image someone posted a page or two back of the "current" price)
And my point is that that's not a general pattern... the only true "common" pattern (assuming your travel dates // origin+destination are set) is that within like 3 weeks of the date of travel, prices will steadily increase; any time before that, it's largely a crapshoot
I'm curious as to when you think the prices start "dropping until tix are sold out"; quite simply put, if you manage to buy a guaranteed ticket (meaning not stand-by) a day or two before the flight, far more often than not, you are paying almost the maximum price for your ticket
Anyways, I find airline pricing strategy really really interesting (I guess my math/cs nerddom is kicking in?!), so I'd rather keep talking about the actual thing itself rather than fire ad hominems back and forth... and as usual, if you want me to 'shut up', i would stop posting when people stop responding
SwiftBass
Smash Hero
time to reel'em in
prog
Priest of the Temple of Syrinx
666. The number of Nero, the beast.
9?9. Flipped. Smashers ascend to heaven.
9/?/09. SPOC. Get your wing game ready.
GET HYPED FOUR MONTHS IN ADVANCE.
9?9. Flipped. Smashers ascend to heaven.
9/?/09. SPOC. Get your wing game ready.
GET HYPED FOUR MONTHS IN ADVANCE.
Christopher Rodriguez
The illest Project M Bowser
Oh ****
thats some crazy stuff there. HYPEEEEE
thats some crazy stuff there. HYPEEEEE
Sensei
Smash Lord
Pocky, you should make a website that can calculate when to buy tickets for the cheapest price, ANYTIME and ANYWHERE! Then when you press calculate, a pop up window comes up with a random insult.
DJ Nintendo
Smash Champion
I'm definitely going to the next SPOC. Scar, just don't end up having the same date as Tipped Off 5 lol. Its also in September and thats gonna be a huge tournament too.
prog
Priest of the Temple of Syrinx
I'm afraid of exactly how ballin SPOC will be with working man Scar.
teh_spamerer
Smash Master
Neeeeeeeeeero666. The number of Nero, the beast.
9?9. Flipped. Smashers ascend to heaven.
9/?/09. SPOC. Get your wing game ready.
GET HYPED FOUR MONTHS IN ADVANCE.
HOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
The Phenom
Smash Lord
9/?/09 is the release of my Mr.Game and Watch Combo video lol.666. The number of Nero, the beast.
9?9. Flipped. Smashers ascend to heaven.
9/?/09. SPOC. Get your wing game ready.
GET HYPED FOUR MONTHS IN ADVANCE.
---------
CLASS OF 2009!!!
SwiftBass
Smash Hero
.=(Larx)=.
Smash Cadet
I can't wait for this.
Scar
#HarveyDent
Smashtoberfest: Pakman's plan for a tri-state tournament every weekend in October
thoughts?
thoughts?
Xzax Kasrani
Smash Master
Amazing, good stuff
GOTM
Smash Champion
ill contribute if i can get the venue for my tourney again and the first one runs smooth. but i originally planned on not holding them every month, just cuz i dont feel like it.
getting your venue to be a good turnout is the hard part, to run it smoothly is majorly in your hands, the venue sounds very promising in the sense it is secure and 'nice', considering it is one of the library rooms, so trash it we shall not
GOTM
Smash Champion
nah meaning if its available in october, which it might not be cuz they said the room is taken very frequently
well I was hoping to do SPOC No Johns one of EGGMS and one of Alex Strifes
GOTM
Smash Champion
better yet. i didnt wanna hold these every month anyway
Tomacawk
Smash Master
me and samurai are coming to this from the midwest.
PLEASE don't have this on or near the 23rd. Going to it will require me to lsoe m y job
PLEASE don't have this on or near the 23rd. Going to it will require me to lsoe m y job
MattDotZeb
Smash Hero
My thoughts:
Could I live with somebody in the tri-state during october?
Nø Ca$h
Smash Champion
9/?/9 is quickly aproaching.................
can some one fill in the blank?
can some one fill in the blank?