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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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D

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Yeah, saying Zelda one-offs shouldn't be in is really silly IMO when many of the characters in Smash were in one-offs. Heck, if the Ice Climbers can have a spot in still, surely a new Zelda character can. Zelda has many, many characters with amazing moveset potential (Hyrule Warriors shows this plenty), and none of them suffer from being recognizable. Most who are even a little familiar with Zelda could tell you who Skull Kid, Midna, Impa, or any other big name Zelda characters are.

I won't disagree that having multiple Links is fitting. However, saying Sheik is fine when she is most likely never going to be used again ever is a little weird to me. If that is the case, why are other Zelda options bad? I'd argue some of the newcomer options available are more recognizable (and popular) than Sheik at this point. That's just me, though; to each their own. :)
 

Dcas

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Im starting to think that ken leak was somehow intentional or some sort of damage control thing.

With that leak being like 98% truth, how comes nintendo didn´t adress anything or did something about it? I mean, after the esrb thing and several other leaks it blows my mind that nintendo just let this leak out, something´s fishy about this leak, the code, the early build, etc.
 

Untouch

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Im starting to think that ken leak was somehow intentional or some sort of damage control thing.

With that leak being like 98% truth, how comes nintendo didn´t adress anything or did something about it? I mean, after the esrb thing and several other leaks it blows my mind that nintendo just let this leak out, something´s fishy about this leak, the code, the early build, etc.
Deleting something like this would be admitting it's real, it's probably safer to just let this leak and keep the speculation going rather than kick up a fuss about it. Ken (a character a lot of people expected) is way smaller than the entire game leaking.
 

CosmicQuark

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Im starting to think that ken leak was somehow intentional or some sort of damage control thing.

With that leak being like 98% truth, how comes nintendo didn´t adress anything or did something about it? I mean, after the esrb thing and several other leaks it blows my mind that nintendo just let this leak out, something´s fishy about this leak, the code, the early build, etc.
Nintendo generally has a policy not to comment on speculation and rumors--so even if it's a credible leak, they would not want to address it and give it more of a spotlight than it already has, and that would include taking it down (i.e., the Streisand Effect).
 
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Fatmanonice

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Because, no offense to Ken fans, but Ken's not big news. An echo of a character that had a super weak Smash fanbase until he was confirmed does not make for a SHUT IT ALL DOWN character. No one's really for him but no one's really against him either. He's just kind of there and nobody disagrees that he's iconic enough to warrant a measly echo slot.
 
D

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Deleting something like this would be admitting it's real, it's probably safer to just let this leak and keep the speculation going rather than kick up a fuss about it. Ken (a character a lot of people expected) is way smaller than the entire game leaking.
I still find it kind of funny that that's all the leaker got. You'd think they'd go for something big like the CSS or something from Spirits if they had a full debug build, but nope, just Ken, lol.

We're getting really close to October now. Anyone wanna take a guess on if a big leak will happen? I personally think that there's maaaaaybe a 40% or so chance of something happening, and it probably won't be believed because it'll be in text form.
 
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I still find it kind of funny that that's all the leaker got. You'd think they'd go for something big like the CSS or something from Spirits if they had a full debug build, but nope, just Ken, lol.

We're getting really close to October now. Anyone wanna take a guess on if a big leak will happen? I personally think that there's maaaaaybe a 40% or so chance of something happening, and it probably won't be believed because it'll be in text form.
If it was an early build that didn't have all the characters implemented yet, that might explain it. Either that, or it was the only screenshot out of a bunch taken that they were able to put forth. Maybe because it's Ken and nobody really cares whether he's in or not was why the leaker was able to put it out there. Any other character that people would have cared for might have put their job on the line.
 

iruchii

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One-off argument is terrible considering Fire Emblem does it worse and has more character representation.
I was only talking about within the Zelda series. I don't particularly like how many Fire Emblem characters there are in the game, but it's a point that's not really relevant to this discussion at all.

Popularity should warrant the character being 'deserved'.
'Deserve' is a bad term, since we don't know what's Sakurai's criteria. Maybe he doesn't care about popularity as much as you say, maybe he does. I just think saying characters 'deserve' to be over others is jumping the gun.

Skull Kid is 'deserved' more than others for the simple reason that Majora's Mask is as iconic as the Triforce itself. Just about any gamer can look at those two symbols and immediately tell you they're from LoZ. Same can't be said about others in the series.
The Majora's Mask is definitely not as iconic as the Triforce. It's one of the most iconic items in the series for sure, but it's absolutely not on the same level as the Triforce when it comes to recognition outside of the deeper gaming bubble. I surely hope you were just exaggerating because the Triforce is honestly unmatched in terms of gaming icons.

Also having a bunch of Links is horrible representation and it comes off as lazy when there's dozens of interesting and popular characters to choose from the series.
I don't think it's horrible representation. It would be better if they weren't clones/semi-clones/echoes of each other though -- imagine if Toon Link had Wind Waker's items like the Deku Leaf/Skull Hammer, and Young Link used the other masks from Majora's Mask? But alas, that's not how it is, sadly. Anyway, all those dozen interesting and popular characters haven't made it into Smash for a reason and I was just laying out what I believe to be logic groundwork for that reason. I can't claim to know what goes through Sakurai's mind!
 

TyrantLizardKing

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Directs are usually within the first half of the month. Think it’s safe to assume there’s internal knowledge of one for early October that people know about, but don’t know what’s actually in it.
 

FalconFire93

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Im starting to think that ken leak was somehow intentional or some sort of damage control thing.

With that leak being like 98% truth, how comes nintendo didn´t adress anything or did something about it? I mean, after the esrb thing and several other leaks it blows my mind that nintendo just let this leak out, something´s fishy about this leak, the code, the early build, etc.
I believe that the only reason that Nintendo didn’t do anything about it is because if they took that leak down themselves, it would confirm that the Ken leak is legitimate and probably my guess as to why they didn’t.
 

Luigifan18

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Yeah, the individual mentioned Tamagon from Devil World to be the retro rep ...
TAMAGON? Hell no.
Tamagon actually makes some degree of sense. His archenemy — that big blue devil who points and moves the stage around — has been an Assist Trophy in the previous two Smash games. I'd rather have Lip as the retro rep, though, as she has considerably more potential for a unique moveset (focusing on damage over time and stage control via obstacles and direct repositioning).

I mean, all FE characters have at most 3 total appearances(not counting amiibo, DLC and remakes as separate games). It's not really the same thing at all when Zelda has a main trio that's constant throughout the entire series, with Zelda and Ganon missing some games here and there.
When you have a constant rotating cast, one-offs are the norm.
Yeah, saying Zelda one-offs shouldn't be in is really silly IMO when many of the characters in Smash were in one-offs. Heck, if the Ice Climbers can have a spot in still, surely a new Zelda character can. Zelda has many, many characters with amazing moveset potential (Hyrule Warriors shows this plenty), and none of them suffer from being recognizable. Most who are even a little familiar with Zelda could tell you who Skull Kid, Midna, Impa, or any other big name Zelda characters are.

I won't disagree that having multiple Links is fitting. However, saying Sheik is fine when she is most likely never going to be used again ever is a little weird to me. If that is the case, why are other Zelda options bad? I'd argue some of the newcomer options available are more recognizable (and popular) than Sheik at this point. That's just me, though; to each their own. :)
Argh... nobody ever mentions Vaati... the Smash roster could really use a wind specialist!!!

Nintendo generally has a policy not to comment on speculation and rumors--so even if it's a credible leak, they would not want to address it and give it more of a spotlight than it already has, and that would include taking it down (i.e., the Streisand Effect).
If it was an early build that didn't have all the characters implemented yet, that might explain it. Either that, or it was the only screenshot out of a bunch taken that they were able to put forth. Maybe because it's Ken and nobody really cares whether he's in or not was why the leaker was able to put it out there. Any other character that people would have cared for might have put their job on the line.
I have to agree: Nintendo is being very smart by taking the Streisand Effect into account. They can't hunt down and squash every single "leak" that crops up, and if they just squash the big and/or true leaks, that draws more attention to them. If they leave next to all the leaks alone, however, that leaves us with no clue which ones to believe and which ones to laugh out of the room.
 
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D

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Argh... nobody ever mentions Vaati... the Smash roster could really use a wind specialist!!!
Ha ha, sorry, my bad, my bad. I kinda forget Vaati due to not really having played a lot of top-down Zelda (something I would like to address at some point). Vaati would be super cool, and would be a great rival for Toon Link.
 
D

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Because, no offense to Ken fans, but Ken's not big news. An echo of a character that had a super weak Smash fanbase until he was confirmed does not make for a SHUT IT ALL DOWN character. No one's really for him but no one's really against him either. He's just kind of there and nobody disagrees that he's iconic enough to warrant a measly echo slot.
>The other part of "THE fighting game duo"
>"Not big news"
Times like these really make me appreciate this Smash bubble you all live in.
 

Imadethistoseealeak

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Question about Minecon....interesting tweet referring to something they can't talk about, but it could literally be anything. However let's say it was a Steve in Smash annoucnement or heck any kind of Minecraft representation in Smash, how would Nintendo/Smash fans know where to look?

If Nintendo or Sakurai mentions it that's a dead give away...I feel like it lessens the value of the reveal for Nintendo fans because it's more likely they'll see he was revealed due to a YouTube reaction video or video game article the next day.

You could say this is sort of like the WFT or Pac-Man reveal but at least those were through Nintendo and we expected reveals from them. Seems like a weird way to announce a character.
 
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D

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Question about Minecon....interesting tweet referring to something they can't talk about, but it could literally be anything. However let's say it was a Steve in Smash annoucnement or heck any kind of Minecraft representation in Smash, how would Nintendo/Smash fans know where to look?

If Nintendo or Sakurai mentions it that's a dead give away...I feel like it lessens the value of the reveal for Nintendo fans because it's more likely they'll see he was revealed due to a YouTube reaction video or video game article the next day.

You could say this is sort of like the WFT or Pac-Man reveal but at least those were through Nintendo and we expected reveals from them. Seems like a weird way to announce a character.
On the (in my opinion) incredibly low chance it happens at Minecon, they would probably pull a Robin and Lucina reveal and stream it themselves a day or two before and then play it again at Minecon to advertise it to people not in the core Smash fandom.
 

Luigimon98

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Question about Minecon....interesting tweet referring to something they can't talk about, but it could literally be anything. However let's say it was a Steve in Smash annoucnement or heck any kind of Minecraft representation in Smash, how would Nintendo/Smash fans know where to look?

If Nintendo or Sakurai mentions it that's a dead give away...I feel like it lessens the value of the reveal for Nintendo fans because it's more likely they'll see he was revealed due to a YouTube reaction video or video game article the next day.

You could say this is sort of like the WFT or Pac-Man reveal but at least those were through Nintendo and we expected reveals from them. Seems like a weird way to announce a character.
Well, there was that certain tweet from one of the devs that said: "Steve is..."
 
D

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Ken's incredibly iconic, no doubt, but virtually no one cares if he makes it into Smash or not. Like I said, Ryu's a gaming giant and hardly anyone cared about him getting in either.
"Virtually no one cared if he[Ken] makes it in"
"Hardly anyone cared about him[Ryu]"
Again, step out of the Smash Bubble this site exists in. Ken is expected and that creates apathy towards his fate, it's the same that happened with anyone in the Gematsu leak, people expected them so much they didn't care about them anymore.
But to act like Ryu and Ken aren't popular is super silly. Was Richter popular in the Smash fanbase? Not at all but every Castlevania fan was incredibly hyped to see him, I don't see how that would be any different with Ken to the SF fanbase.
SF being THE fighting game doesn't just make it iconic, it also makes it incredibly popular, and Ken is certainly up high in those terms.
 

Imadethistoseealeak

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On the (in my opinion) incredibly low chance it happens at Minecon, they would probably pull a Robin and Lucina reveal and stream it themselves a day or two before and then play it again at Minecon to advertise it to people not in the core Smash fandom.
Hmmmm it's possible we could get an update on Friday...

Even the Robin & Lucina reveal was announced a weekend before so they would need to announce it in the next couple days. This is something to look for at least, it's interesting!
 

dezeray112

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Untouch

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Someone could try and ask Vergeben about his views on Hitagi's claims on the Minecraft content.
He's already said that he hasn't changed his mind and doesn't 100% believe that Steve is in, only that a stage or AT is in. This alone contradicts that Hitagi has been saying.

Hitagi doesn't seem confident at all, saying that it may be DLC (he's done this TWICE) feels like a copout if they aren't in the base game, they would still have a chance then.
 
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D

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Even if the MC content ends up just a stage, that itself would be extremely exciting because a stage made entirely out of destructible blocks sounds amazingly fun for 8-player Smash. Also, Minecraft's soundtrack is really hecking good and potentially getting Smash remixes of it excites me greatly.
 

Llort A. Ton

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Its not impossible, but itd be odd to see a MineCraft level and AT be in the base game but have Steve himself be DLC. I think hed either be in the base game for the whole package or were just getting the level and AT and thats it.
 

Hydrualic Hydra

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'I've seen backpedaling like this before... it wasn't enough to bother me then... but it does now.'

Yeah, this guy is jumping around way too much on his stance. Keep in mind this is the same guy who initially jumped on the info that Granblue Fantasy was coming to Smash. I officially care much less about what he has to say, mayhaps Steve isn't as likely a character as we've accepted him to be.
 

Dcas

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Damn these drought of news for the upcoming smash only 2 months away from the release is taking a toll on me. Besides Isabelle and potentially Ken, we havent had much official info.
 
D

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Damn these drought of news for the upcoming smash only 2 months away from the release is taking a toll on me. Besides Isabelle and potentially Ken, we havent had much official info.
On the bright side, it'll probably end soon. We'll soon be entering the period of Nintendo's pre-release marketing where they're really gonna start ramping things up, I think. For example, Mario Odyssey got pushed suuuuuper hard when it was about as close to release as Smash is now, so I honestly would expect big news soon, especially when (in my opinion) one last big Direct is all that's needed to tie things up.
 

PolarPanda

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Oh no dude I wasn't talking about you. I used you for proof of box theory, which the other dude was trying to disprove. You're fine my guy. Thanks for the great post on box theory.

Really makes you think.
View attachment 166580
Nothing you gave was any reasoning for box theory. I've looked through box theory threads, I've looked at your posts, etc. And it's all grasping at straws. For real, lol. As opposed to actually doing calcs and accounting for multiple scenarios, which blog theory does. Blog theory never discounted the possibility of 2 fighters, it's just highly unlikely. The only way that would ever even happen, with the .JSON in mind, is if the avg. post per day count went to 1, but it's at 1.3. The odds are slim, and I can understand you lowering your explanation, I get that. But don't pretend like box theory has a lot going for it when it's an american box art that is designed by american graphic artists, when even the narrator of the game doesn't know the full roster. I haven't seen a single good, logical reason disproving this scenario or refuting it. If you actually can beyond what the box theory threads say, then shoot.
 

dezeray112

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He's already said that he hasn't changed his mind and doesn't 100% believe that Steve is in, only that a stage or AT is in. This alone contradicts that Hitagi has been saying.

Hitagi doesn't seem confident at all, saying that it may be DLC (he's done this TWICE) feels like a copout if they aren't in the base game, they would still have a chance then.
I see.

What also strikes me odd about Hitagi was that he mentioned the specs of a new upgraded Switch, which I'm a bit unsure of.
 

Llort A. Ton

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Even if we got some **** post quality stuff like the PotD and Dojo gave us ("This is widescreen display") would be pretty neat. The only stuff of value on the blog nowadays are the dope remixes, everything else is old news. Speaking of which, Sakurai should drop a new rendition of Kens theme tonight to **** with us after the leak. It would be funny.
 
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Untouch

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Even if we got some **** post quality stuff like the PotD and Dojo gave us ("This is widescreen display") would be pretty neat. The only stuff of value on the blog nowadays are the dope remixes, everything else is old news. Speaking of which, Sakurai should drop a new rendition of Kens theme tonight to **** with us after the leak. It would be funny.
Sakurai should post a pokemon remix tonight to destroy all speculation.
 

Megadoomer

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Ken's incredibly iconic, no doubt, but virtually no one cares if he makes it into Smash or not. Like I said, Ryu's a gaming giant and hardly anyone cared about him getting in either.
That's mainly because Ryu was leaked in at least two separate ways before his official reveal, with his victory theme and classic mode ending cutscene being found in the game's files. If he hadn't been leaked at all, the reaction would have been much bigger.
 
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Hydrualic Hydra

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Nothing you gave was any reasoning for box theory. I've looked through box theory threads, I've looked at your posts, etc. And it's all grasping at straws. For real, lol. As opposed to actually doing calcs and accounting for multiple scenarios, which blog theory does. Blog theory never discounted the possibility of 2 fighters, it's just highly unlikely. The only way that would ever even happen, with the .JSON in mind, is if the avg. post per day count went to 1, but it's at 1.3. The odds are slim, and I can understand you lowering your explanation, I get that. But don't pretend like box theory has a lot going for it when it's an american box art that is designed by american graphic artists, when even the narrator of the game doesn't know the full roster. I haven't seen a single good, logical reason disproving this scenario or refuting it. If you actually can beyond what the box theory threads say, then shoot.
Okay dude, I'm gonna have to level with you. (This isn't meant to be condescending, I'm trying to be as direct as possible)

I'm very much a math guy. Numbers are my thing. Empirical data and proof by calculation are my jam. I have a lot of respect for the effort and passion you put into your theory. But what you have isn't the raw, damning evidence you purport it to be. It's a trend that's already shown signs of deviance in the past. Don't conflate the two.

And to say they've given 'no reasoning for box theory' is just being ignorant and refusing to listen. If you'd run the numbers and actually look into the pattern, you could tell that Corrin is, in theory, placed incorrectly on the box, leaving room for exactly one Echo on the other side, which would be Ken, along with one last open slot for Incineroar, MAYBE two huge 3rd party characters on the back. In ADDITION, 11 characters matches up well with Sakurai's claim to 'not expect that many characters this time around', and that he only had 'a few more to reveal' after the 8.8 Direct. Also, claiming the box is faulty because it's made by NoA is grasping at DOUBLE the straws you claim box theorists to be reaching for, NoA is still Nintendo and the bigheads know the same across the board, the narrator is the type of person who is on a need-to-know basis, his knowledge is irrelevant.

Seriously my guy, you take every opportunity you can to just ignore the actual evidence there is in favor of box theory. It's a very likely reality that I (somewhat foolishly) reject out of sheer faith alone, but you refuse to even listen in the first place.
 

Funktastic

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"Careful Randy, ****storm's comin'. Don't poke the ****boxers or ****bloggers, they'll **** all over ya." - Jim Lahey
 
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Because, no offense to Ken fans, but Ken's not big news. An echo of a character that had a super weak Smash fanbase until he was confirmed does not make for a SHUT IT ALL DOWN character. No one's really for him but no one's really against him either. He's just kind of there and nobody disagrees that he's iconic enough to warrant a measly echo slot.
I can’t really agree with that lol.

Since fighting games wouldn’t be a think without Street Fighter, I think that Ken is pretty much the original echo fighter, and we don’t even know if he’s an echo. The move set variation present in Ken’s moves has always made him a fan favorite in the Street Fighter series, and has made him the more aggressive archetype of the shotoken fighters (Ryu / Ken / Akuma)

I mentioned this before, but the true inputs for his moves can have varying properties

True light shoryuken could have high hitstun with low knockback so you can combo into another shoryuken or other moves. This is true to the source material as Ken has had light shoryuken and now light tatsumaki combos in most of the games he features in.

Grounded true Tatsumski Sempu Kyaku could function like his Marvel vs Capcom iteration and be a rising multi hit with a spike at the end. It could function similar to Ken’s EX tatsu in Street Fighter , as a lot of his moves draw some inspiration from his MvC incarnations. Tatsu has always been different for Ken, and at the very least it will be multi hit.

Hadouken in the air could be the faster one hand diagonal down variation from MvC as well, making it a good tool off of a short hop. It would dissipate quickly but allow good aerial pressure. Since Ken never had Shakunetsu Hadouken he could probably not have it or an EX input for a two hit, fast full range hadouken with low knockback.

Since Ken has always been famous for jumping in on opponents (mostly with his cross up medium kick), and having the option to chain normals into specials while airborne in ultimate, his aerial Tatsu with true inputs should have either his dive kick property like in Street Fighter 5 or just accelerate him down faster like in Street Fighter 2 and 3 to maintain pressure and possibly combo off of his multi hit tatsu.

His Focus attack will probably have more range than Ryu’s, assuming he still has it. And his normals will definitely have different properties or different moves period. Ken may have his chain Standing Medium into back Standing medium axe kick rather than Ryu’s collarbone breaker. He should definitely have his standing medium > standing heavy target combo.

Honestly if Isabelle can be considered an original character, then Ken definitely has a shot at at least being a fun semi clone.

And so what if Ken doesn’t have Smash popularity. Snake didn’t, and he’s the first third party character lol. Ken’s world wide popularity as a fighting game character trumps most of the smash fan base in general. Mario and Luigi function similarly as Ryu and Ken in street fighter, so what’s wrong with having the real deal?
 

MasterOfKnees

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'I've seen backpedaling like this before... it wasn't enough to bother me then... but it does now.'

Yeah, this guy is jumping around way too much on his stance. Keep in mind this is the same guy who initially jumped on the info that Granblue Fantasy was coming to Smash. I officially care much less about what he has to say, mayhaps Steve isn't as likely a character as we've accepted him to be.
This is why Vergeben isn't telling us about the name he heard might be the Square Enix rep until he can get 100% confirmation from all three of his main sources, and why he previously didn't for the Gen 7 Pokémon, if he jumped the gun and told us everything the minute he heard even a rumbling of it he'd end up looking like a fool, like this guy does atm. In the messy world of leakers I appreciate that attitude.
 

Z25

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Alright it’s my birthday!

I’ll take any photo leaks of bandanna dee, Geno, Sora, or wonder red internet.

:p
 
D

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Nothing you gave was any reasoning for box theory. I've looked through box theory threads, I've looked at your posts, etc. And it's all grasping at straws. For real, lol. As opposed to actually doing calcs and accounting for multiple scenarios, which blog theory does. Blog theory never discounted the possibility of 2 fighters, it's just highly unlikely. The only way that would ever even happen, with the .JSON in mind, is if the avg. post per day count went to 1, but it's at 1.3. The odds are slim, and I can understand you lowering your explanation, I get that. But don't pretend like box theory has a lot going for it when it's an american box art that is designed by american graphic artists, when even the narrator of the game doesn't know the full roster. I haven't seen a single good, logical reason disproving this scenario or refuting it. If you actually can beyond what the box theory threads say, then shoot.
As someone who's neutral on Box Theory, it's biggest fault is it's lack of hard, irrefutable evidence. A lot of the "evidence" is personal opinion and speculation taken as fact, which IMO should never be the case. Basically, what proves the theory is the theory itself, nothing actually substantial, which is why I don't 100% believe it. I think it's core ideas of lowering expectations for final reveals is good, but to force the doomsday scenario of "There's only Incineroar and Ken left because OF course the marketing team specifically designed it to be that way" is a little shaky. It's possible, sure, but on the same token it's also very likely that people are reading into things too much and are more willing to believe in it no matter what because it's easier to expect something that will disappoint you than it is to be optimistic and potentially be let down.

Basically: People don't want to be disappointed, so they're expecting the worst to happen anyway.

In fairness, though, Blog Theory works on the same principles as the Box Theory. People are looking at supposed patterns and assigning their own speculation and biases onto them, which isn't evidence either IMO. Truth of the matter is, neither one de-confirms the other and nothing proves either one 100% inarguably right. Music Theory is the only one that has anything close to actual evidence due to the AC remix specifically being delayed for Isabelle's reveal, and even then it's not perfect. Just because they haven't had a repeat in music yet doesn't mean they won't, and even if I fully believe the theory that doesn't make it true; it's just my opinion.

To each their own, though: People are gonna believe what they want, and that's cool. :)
 
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Fatmanonice

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That's mainly because Ryu was leaked in at least two separate ways before his official reveal, with his victory theme and classic mode ending cutscene being found in the game's files. If he hadn't been leaked at all, the reaction would have been much bigger.
Probably but you probably could count the fingers on a duck's foot the number of people who were really pulling for Ryu to ever be in Smash before that. Even afterwards, there was only a tiny bump in interest, mostly from hardcore fighting game fans.
 
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People who call the Box Theory "bull****" and say it "lacks evidence" will be legally prohibited from complaining when it turns out we only have two more characters.
 
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