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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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CosmicQuark

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This is why Vergeben isn't telling us about the name he heard might be the Square Enix rep until he can get 100% confirmation from all three of his main sources, and why he previously didn't for the Gen 7 Pokémon, if he jumped the gun and told us everything the minute he heard even a rumbling of it he'd end up looking like a fool, like this guy does atm. In the messy world of leakers I appreciate that attitude.
Exactly. There is an important distinction between how Verge leaks, and how the Reddit user leaks--the former says "I've heard back from my main Smash sources...",* the latter goes "MOTHER****ING MINECRAFT CHARACTER". Which is why I immediately dismissed it before Verge legitimized him. Now that I see him pulling a Loz and backpedaling, it's starting to confirm my suspicions that either a) Steve is the leaker bait we keep hearing about, and he fell for it, whereas Verge didn't because he has been waiting for confirmation with multiple trustworthy sources, or b) Steve's not in the base game, but it's likely he's a character in some form. Though, it's also not out of the realm of possibility that it is true. But that's how I gauge the likelihoods.

*Although Verge also has a level of unprofessional behavior about him, which made me initially skeptical about him--but he kept getting everything right, whereas the other guy is a much more unknown quantity as of right now.

EDIT:

People who call the Box Theory "bull****" and say it "lacks evidence" will be legally prohibited from complaining when it turns out we only have two more characters.
But what if those two characters are not Ken and Incineroar? *Twilight Zone music plays*
 
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Rockaphin

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At this point, I'd be pretty irked if Ken didn't make it into Smash Ultimate.
 

mynameisBlade

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Am I the only one who legit thinks that Nintendo released that mock-up image of characters on the side of the box JUST to throw us off the trail?
 

NintenZ

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It doesn't seem like there's been too many terribly interesting leaks lately has there?
 
D

Deleted member

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People who call the Box Theory "bull****" and say it "lacks evidence" will be legally prohibited from complaining when it turns out we only have two more characters.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

What do we do if it turns out that the Box Theory is indeed bull****? (note: I am neutral on the issue)
 

Nonno Umby

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People who call the Box Theory "bull****" and say it "lacks evidence" will be legally prohibited from complaining when it turns out we only have two more characters.
Challange accepted, I don't belive in the slightest about that theory and I am willing to bet that we are going to see more than just Ken and Incineroar.

Then I would also suggest that people who are supporting it to death are legally prohibited to be happy when more than two characters are revealed :upsidedown:
 
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Momotsuki

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I feel like the only reason people have been so quick to put trust in the box theory is because it's a worst-case scenario. I think it has just about as much weight as the music theory or blog theory; not that much. I think it'd be best to wait and see rather than seat yourself in these doomsday predictions or these impossibly optimistic ones.
 
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FalconFire93

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Alright it’s my birthday!

I’ll take any photo leaks of bandanna dee, Geno, Sora, or wonder red internet.

:p
Happy Birthday :) and of course I’d also take any kind of photo leaks of them as well, as long as they looked legit like the Ken leak does in my opinion as long as it’s not another text leak cause you can never tell if that person that’s giving the information over is actually who they say they are or if they’re legit or not.
 
D

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For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

What do we do if it turns out that the Box Theory is indeed bull****? (note: I am neutral on the issue)
No matter what there are gonna be people who will be a little smug about it if either side is right. People do like being right, after all.

For me, I don't really care about being wrong. Speculation is fun to me and I like throwing out crazy, wild ideas along with safe bandwagon stuff. Keeps things more interesting, IMO. :p
 
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PolarPanda

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Okay dude, I'm gonna have to level with you. (This isn't meant to be condescending, I'm trying to be as direct as possible)

I'm very much a math guy. Numbers are my thing. Empirical data and proof by calculation are my jam. I have a lot of respect for the effort and passion you put into your theory. But what you have isn't the raw, damning evidence you purport it to be. It's a trend that's already shown signs of deviance in the past. Don't conflate the two.

And to say they've given 'no reasoning for box theory' is just being ignorant and refusing to listen. If you'd run the numbers and actually look into the pattern, you could tell that Corrin is, in theory, placed incorrectly on the box, leaving room for exactly one Echo on the other side, which would be Ken, along with one last open slot for Incineroar, MAYBE two huge 3rd party characters on the back. In ADDITION, 11 characters matches up well with Sakurai's claim to 'not expect that many characters this time around', and that he only had 'a few more to reveal' after the 8.8 Direct. Also, claiming the box is faulty because it's made by NoA is grasping at DOUBLE the straws you claim box theorists to be reaching for, NoA is still Nintendo and the bigheads know the same across the board, the narrator is the type of person who is on a need-to-know basis, his knowledge is irrelevant.

Seriously my guy, you take every opportunity you can to just ignore the actual evidence there is in favor of box theory. It's a very likely reality that I (somewhat foolishly) reject out of sheer faith alone, but you refuse to even listen in the first place.
In particular "Also, claiming the box is faulty because it's made by NoA is grasping at DOUBLE the straws you claim box theorists to be reaching for, NoA is still Nintendo and the bigheads know the same across the board, the narrator is the type of person who is on a need-to-know basis, his knowledge is irrelevant. " I feel is quite weak. When you say Narrator is on a need to know basis, so is the graphic artist. Forensic analyzing proves that the American special boxart is literally just photoshopped right now, it's still not finished editing at all. The graphic artist behind the box isn't done, so I find it highly unlikely they had all of the information when making this photoshopped early placeholder. Nintendo went so far as to make Xander record hundreds of names just so he wouldn't know the full roster, you think they wouldn't do that with whatever graphic artist they hired for the American boxart? IMO it's reaching to assume the graphic artist knew anything that early.
analysis 2.png


Don't get me wrong, box theory can be true. I wish some people would realize that BOTH box theory AND blog theory can be true. Blog theory already took into account 2 fighters is a possibility, it was literally calc D on the old spreadsheet. It's just less likely. The numbers "4-8" or "6-8" just spread around because it makes the MOST sense if blog continues on its current path, but 2 or 3 are still possible with slowdown.
I'm just not particularly sold on anything from box yet. As I said, both could be right at the same time, even.
 
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Exalt4747

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I also wanted to say that the reason why Ken and Inceniroar are so often paired together is because they're probably in the same trailer. Here's how I imagine it will play out:

Ryu's ready to fight. "Gee, it sure is BORING around here." Inceniroar comes in like John Cena. "Muh boy, this belt is what all true fighters strive for!" They fight. Cue gameplay montage. Inceniroar gets the upper hand and is about to Care Bear Stare Ryu into oblivion when Ken jumps in with his patented Flameo-Hotman uppercut to save the day. Brief moment of recognition before the distinct arcade "Here Comes a New Challenger" is heard, cue Ken's splash screen, and then another montage. All three are on the respective sides of the arena/Chuck E. Cheese lobby/whatever when they charge at each other, Inceniroar doing Darkiest Lariat, before they collide or it simply fades to black. For obvious reasons, I could also see Lucario being Inceniroar's tag team partner for the trailer, maybe having Ryu's Hadoken collide with aura sphere or somethin' at some point.
This is probably the pinnacle of human achievement.
 
D

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I feel like the only reason people have been so quick to put trust in the box theory is because it's a worst-case scenario. I think it has just about as much weight as the music theory or blog theory; not that much. I think it'd be best to wait and see rather than seat yourself in these doomsday predictions or these wonderful dream rosters.
Worst case scenarios tend to anger people; not give them hope.

Unless people have learned finally that usually the late-game leak with the news that nobody wants to really hear (in this case, "there's only 2 characters left") are true. The chances of people learning are less than the chances of Smash Brothers getting the Venture Brothers as a duo character.
 
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Jdaster64

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Just my own two cents, I am not letting myself buy into any school of speculation based purely off of extrapolating patterns from what might well be relatively independent events, namely the site music theory and blog theory. Looking at patterns can certainly lead to a general ballpark expectation, but assuming anything's going to hold 100% is a bridge too far.

I'm admittedly very skeptical of the possibility of only two unannounced newcomers (both marketing-wise, and given Verg has repeatedly doubled down on a third's existence without giving much weight one way or the other on the possibility of it being DLC). But the box theory for my money still has way more credence in being based an obviously deliberate design decision, even if it's unfinished, and even if there are alternative interpretations as to why that design is the way it is currently.

Plus, at the end of the day, as many have said, no one stands to lose anything for at least entertaining the idea of a bare minimum expectation; Pascal's Wager and all that.
 
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Hydrualic Hydra

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In particular "Also, claiming the box is faulty because it's made by NoA is grasping at DOUBLE the straws you claim box theorists to be reaching for, NoA is still Nintendo and the bigheads know the same across the board, the narrator is the type of person who is on a need-to-know basis, his knowledge is irrelevant. " I feel is quite weak. When you say Narrator is on a need to know basis, so is the graphic artist. Forensic analyzing proves that the American special boxart is literally just photoshopped right now, it's still not finished editing at all. The graphic artist behind the box isn't done, so I find it highly unlikely they had all of the information when making this photoshopped early placeholder. Nintendo went so far as to make Xander record hundreds of names just so he wouldn't know the full roster, you think they wouldn't do that with whatever graphic artist they hired for the American boxart? IMO it's reaching to assume the graphic artist knew anything that early.View attachment 166616

Don't get me wrong, box theory can be true. I wish some people would realize that BOTH box theory AND blog theory can be true. Blog theory already took into account 2 fighters is a possibility, it was literally calc D on the old spreadsheet. It's just less likely. The numbers "4-8" or "6-8" just spread around because it makes the MOST sense if blog continues on its current path, but 2 or 3 are still possible with slowdown.
I'm just not particularly sold on anything from box yet. As I said, both could be right at the same time, even.
This is a PRETTY HARD turnaround on how you were talking about box theory before, but if it's how you really feel, it's good to know you at least realize it's a likely possibility. You come across as very forceful of your opinion and demeaning to people who think box theory is the more likely alternative.
 

Nekoo

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
 

staindgrey

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But what if those two characters are not Ken and Incineroar? *Twilight Zone music plays*
They don't have to be Ken and Incineroar. The theory only requires one unique newcomer after Isabelle and one echo in Ryu's row. (Which, let's be honest, is most likely Ken.)
 
D

Deleted member

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For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

What do we do if it turns out that the Box Theory is indeed bull****? (note: I am neutral on the issue)
We party.
Challange accepted, I don't belive in the slightest about that theory and I am willing to bet that we are going to see more than just Ken and Incineroar.

Then I would also suggest that people who are supporting it to death are legally prohibited to be happy when more than two characters are revealed :upsidedown:
That's literally not how any of this works lol.
"Ah yes, I can't be happy because I believed a worst-case scenario"
 

Untouch

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
This guy doesn't understand how testing like this works.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
I can barely read his handwriting

One of them seems to be implied to be an Undertale stage, and I have no clue what the fifth one is supposed to be
 

viewtifulduck82

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Idk, I would MUCH rather believe box theory and be pleasantly surprised over not believing it and ending up upset.

I've said time and time again that people will end up upset with the roster either way, and this looks like the kind of scenario we see people crying over at launch. I've been around enough speculation periods to see how these usually go down lol
 

Momotsuki

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Anyway, I will say this. Whether you believe in the box theory or you don't (I'm personally neutral on the issue. I got my Isabelle, everyone else is just a nice bonus) you shouldn't take it being true or false as gospel. Because really it could be true, or it could be false. Everyone, regardless of their expectations, should be aware that as it stands there is no way to know with certainty the validity of the box theory.
 
D

Deleted member

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
Gahhh...Can't get 4chan at work....What's it say character-wise? I'll have to read the rest when I get off work later.
 

Daeyrat

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I've noticed that Black Shadow has been appearing more and more in those fake 4chan leaks this past week.
Why is he trending exactly?

I mean, I like him somehow, but I really don't think he would work as a character. As a falcon echo, he would be fast, wouldn't he? Melee Ganon-like characters aren't branded as echoes/clones anymore. If they make him a slow falcon...well... ganon already does this well.

I tend to believe that any leak containing him is probably fake after trying to figure out how he would play.
 

Exalt4747

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So what some of you all are saying is that Hitagi doesn't have weight anymore, right?
 

Momotsuki

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That leak... It's probably fake, but he clearly did his homework. Also, his handwriting is pretty legible to me. That being said my own writing is even worse than the Grey Glover's.
 
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DaybreakHorizon

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Nothing you gave was any reasoning for box theory. I've looked through box theory threads, I've looked at your posts, etc. And it's all grasping at straws. For real, lol. As opposed to actually doing calcs and accounting for multiple scenarios, which blog theory does. Blog theory never discounted the possibility of 2 fighters, it's just highly unlikely. The only way that would ever even happen, with the .JSON in mind, is if the avg. post per day count went to 1, but it's at 1.3. The odds are slim, and I can understand you lowering your explanation, I get that. But don't pretend like box theory has a lot going for it when it's an american box art that is designed by american graphic artists, when even the narrator of the game doesn't know the full roster. I haven't seen a single good, logical reason disproving this scenario or refuting it. If you actually can beyond what the box theory threads say, then shoot.
...You know what? I give up. It's impossible to argue with raw confirmation bias and fixation, especially with you ignoring every single point myself and others have made. Of course you're going to be biased towards the theory that you worked on, and from that you'd be unable to take an objective look at the situation. It's like arguing with a ****ing wall. You get nowhere.
Okay dude, I'm gonna have to level with you. (This isn't meant to be condescending, I'm trying to be as direct as possible)

I'm very much a math guy. Numbers are my thing. Empirical data and proof by calculation are my jam. I have a lot of respect for the effort and passion you put into your theory. But what you have isn't the raw, damning evidence you purport it to be. It's a trend that's already shown signs of deviance in the past. Don't conflate the two.

And to say they've given 'no reasoning for box theory' is just being ignorant and refusing to listen. If you'd run the numbers and actually look into the pattern, you could tell that Corrin is, in theory, placed incorrectly on the box, leaving room for exactly one Echo on the other side, which would be Ken, along with one last open slot for Incineroar, MAYBE two huge 3rd party characters on the back. In ADDITION, 11 characters matches up well with Sakurai's claim to 'not expect that many characters this time around', and that he only had 'a few more to reveal' after the 8.8 Direct. Also, claiming the box is faulty because it's made by NoA is grasping at DOUBLE the straws you claim box theorists to be reaching for, NoA is still Nintendo and the bigheads know the same across the board, the narrator is the type of person who is on a need-to-know basis, his knowledge is irrelevant.

Seriously my guy, you take every opportunity you can to just ignore the actual evidence there is in favor of box theory. It's a very likely reality that I (somewhat foolishly) reject out of sheer faith alone, but you refuse to even listen in the first place.
Listen to this guy. I'll repeat my previous point in saying that yeah, it's nice that you're getting attention and exposure from this, but don't let it get to your head. Blog theory isn't nearly as likely as you make it out to be, and you have a lot of expectations on this theory. As I've clearly shown, expectations are dangerous; be careful.
 
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FalconFire93

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Gahhh...Can't get 4chan at work....What's it say character-wise? I'll have to read the rest when I get off work later.
I don’t really think it adds anything anyway, it’s all text and seems like the person is rambling about stages and everything in between, I honestly wouldn’t pay attention to it.
 

JustCallMeJon

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
So its:
  • Undertale Stage
  • Minecraft Stage
  • Street Fighter Stage
  • Super Mario RPG Stage
  • Kingdom Hearts Stage
That is too much 3rd party stages and that Undertale one is really off.
 
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DaybreakHorizon

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Well, time for a fake leak?

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/432968426

Supposedly a debugger who once worked for Microsoft and now work for Nintendo. First work was for Skyward Sword and now is working for Ultimate.
He seems to mostly work on stage debugging/Testing.

While I don't believe him at all, the explanation about how the testing happens is... realistic for a fact.

Probably fake but Hey! Better than the usual fake leaks and can be entertaining!
For the uniformed, the stages are:
  • Either Traverse or Twilight Town
  • Street Fighter 2 Cage
  • Minecraft
  • Undertale (Undyne's Mountain?)
  • Click Clock Forest (Banjo-Kazooie)
Those are some good ****ing stages right there.

In response to JustCallMeJon JustCallMeJon , it'd make sense for third party stages to be revealed absolutely last, as if they were revealed beforehand it'd be a dead giveaway.
 
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PolarPanda

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This is a PRETTY HARD turnaround on how you were talking about box theory before, but if it's how you really feel, it's good to know you at least realize it's a likely possibility. You come across as very forceful of your opinion and demeaning to people who think box theory is the more likely alternative.
I can assure you it's not, the 2-fighter calc has actually existed for weeks and I even noted it as the bare minimum in previous posts on multiple websites. That's why I was saying it's less likely. Blog theory is incredibly fluid as I have described it, it's basically an approximation of which range would make the most sense given the blog's current behaviors. 2 is very possible, it would just require a few circumstances such as the average blog posts per day slowing down to 1 instead of 1.3.
I don't like misinfo spreading about the theory so I figured I'd clarify. Both theories can exist at the same time, I just haven't been sold on the reasoning of box theory at all. I hope I could clear the air, I'm not of the belief that 4-8 or 6-8 is 100% guaranteed at all, just that it's looking the most likely. Blog theory basically determines:

2 is the bare minimum
4 is less likely than 5 or 6 but still possible
5-8 has the most odds.

That's the gist.
I also probably came off as a bit forceful because, considering I've spent so much time into it, I genuinely don't like misinformation spreading, like that "i believe box theory so blog theory is inherently wrong" or vice versa since both can coexist.
 

Nonno Umby

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Worst case scenarios tend to anger people; not give them hope.

Unless people have learned finally that usually the late-game leak with the news that nobody wants to really hear (in this case, "there's only 2 characters left") are true. The chances of people learning are less than the chances of Smash Brothers getting the Venture Brothers as a duo character.
Sorry, but the box theory isn't a leak my friend. It's a placeholder that was always meant to be shown to the pubblic before the final roster was revealed. This changes a lot.
Allow me to explain why I don't belive in dah box:

1) If there were 5/6 more characters left would have they left 5/6 empty spaces on a placeholder meant to be made pubblic? If you say "No", then why making that number 2 suddendly makes it real?

2) This all started from the speculation made by dudes who clearly lacked any actual knowledge of how placeholder images are made, so here is an interesting read for everybody:
My very fist job in my life was actually making those mock-ups for several products. If you're interested, I can explain a bit on how (usually) works.

When you need a visual design for a product, be it a toy, a balm bottle, a keychain of whatever you first tell the graphic designer to do the first draft (my job). This is also the case for many boxes, especially for special editions. After the work is done, your supervisor check it and give the feedback: maybe is too dark for the target audience, maybe the colors are off, maybe you idea sucks, and so on.
Now keep in mind that at this moment the image is still a photoshopped image, not a 3D render (most of the time; I'm talking about my personal experience), and in rare cases those photoshopped images end to be the actual "official" one. Like this one (look at the toilet paper), as opposed to this one. See the difference?
Once the supervisor gives the ok, the process proceed. Remember this part for later.
Then, in the case of a product box, it goes straight to a specific department that make the actual box. I said specific because they are responsible for basically everything regarding the actual box: the colors (if you're familiar with RGB vs CMYK you know what I mean), font dimension (very important if the wording need to be translated), all the box sides, and all those fine prints you see on every box. In this stage the intern can actually make some changes, especially true if you consider that most companies always have some kind of "template" regarding their products. Just grab any box near you and you'll see with your own eyes: the prints, the warnings, the logos, the alignment. There are actual people who specifically work on those, in order to have a good looking AND functional product.
After all that, it usually got double-checked and finally released to the public (and to the physical manufactor). Remember, this process takes place AFTER the actual product is done (or at least should be).

Before proceeding, keep in mind that I worked in a small company and not in a huge multinational, and basically never in a NDA environment. So from now take everything with a grain of salt.

Now, from my personal experience, on this "box theory" I can tell you this. The Smash Bros Special Edition Box is real, like an actual physical box that has been sent to Amazon, along with a specific serial number (and tons of paperwork) in order to be and actual buyable product. Remember that the ESBR already have the final version of the game with all the characters in it, its basically already finished.
But that box is a placeholder. "Hurr-dur, of course its a placeholder, Isabelle is not on it!". And that's the point.
Remember the supervisor stage? In this particular case, the team already know the full rooster but they get specifically instructed about what characters are going to be revealed to the public, so its up to the supervisor to tell "put all the characters up to the 67°, we are going to send this before the planned 5th september direct" or something like that to the poor intern, so he (and later the box department) have to create a desing with those instructions in place.
If you consider that the Steelbox was already announced back in august (look at the date), I think its pretty safe to assume that whoever created that box was specifically instructed on how many characters he was supposed to show. So the empty slots are there for a reason, they are not random.

Its interesting to note the discrepancy in the Palutena-Corrin segment, from my point of view it could really be a slip up of an echo fighter there (Ken/Medusa/Ms. Pacman/Zack...), I mean, it wouldn't be the first time Nintendo screw up like this. But regarding the supposed single remaining slot, I'm pretty confident its a placeholder. As in, the entire grid might change, shrunk, moved, some characters may be on the back and so on.
That said, don't expect 5-6 more unique anyways, Sakurai specifically told us the opposite. There are probably 2 more left, 3 if you want to be optimistic.

Hope it helped.

TL;DR: 90% placeholder, 10% true.

3) While a pattern is there, it doesn't mean much about how final the actual box is, and for all we know the Corrin misplacement was made in order to avoid having a side completely full and the other with 3 missing slots, especially since the artist wouldn't know which side woukd be used for the image.

4) Some people suggest that "some notable TP would be o the back" but sorry, no way that Sora and Steve are heavely highlighted when Sonic, Metal Gear and Final Fantasy are not. And if you say "but they are veterans", take a look behind Smash For case and you will see good old Sonic. Of this kind of conspiracy the only one I find belivable is that the Original 8 are on the back, since they are being heavely promoted for Ultimate (starting roster + only characters on the Limited Edition dock).

5) Considering how secretive they are this time about leaks, I can't see them randomly revealing to an extern graphic designer all the fighters, or at least the exact number of fighters befire even handing him Isabelle's artwork. I suppose they approache dhim with "make a box with 69 characters" or something like that.


So the Box Theory is no where near as bullet proof as people assume, and I'm willing to go one step beyond.
I'm so sure that the box theory is wrong, that we will see more than just Ken and another newcomer in the base game, that if somehow it turns out to be right I will not play Ultimate, my most anticipated game of the DECADE, until the 8th of December CEST.

But now, Box believers, who dares to take this same game? If the Box Theory turns out to be wrong, YOU will have to wait an additional 24 hours. Who wants to play?
 
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Hydrualic Hydra

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I can assure you it's not, the 2-fighter calc has actually existed for weeks and I even noted it as the bare minimum in previous posts on multiple websites. That's why I was saying it's less likely. Blog theory is incredibly fluid as I have described it, it's basically an approximation of which range would make the most sense given the blog's current behaviors. 2 is very possible, it would just require a few circumstances such as the average blog posts per day slowing down to 1 instead of 1.3.
I don't like misinfo spreading about the theory so I figured I'd clarify. Both theories can exist at the same time, I just haven't been sold on the reasoning of box theory at all. I hope I could clear the air, I'm not of the belief that 4-8 or 6-8 is 100% guaranteed at all, just that it's looking the most likely. Blog theory basically determines:

2 is the bare minimum
4 is less likely than 5 or 6 but still possible
5-8 has the most odds.

That's the gist.
I also probably came off as a bit forceful because, considering I've spent so much time into it, I genuinely don't like misinformation spreading, like that "i believe box theory so blog theory is inherently wrong" or vice versa since both can coexist.
When I say turnaround, I mean specifically in how you talk to people who believe box theory. I've read up your theory before this, and know about the 'slim possibility' it presents of only 2 more fighters, but that doesn't change how rude you came off previously in the thread and how much you touted blog over box. Not to mention you on multiple occasions stating box theory was baseless and only used by pessimists.
 

Nameless Kot

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People who call the Box Theory "bull****" and say it "lacks evidence" will be legally prohibited from complaining when it turns out we only have two more characters.
We party.
That's literally not how any of this works lol.
"Ah yes, I can't be happy because I believed a worst-case scenario"
"Ahhh yes I can't complain because I believed in another theory that said we would get more characters"
Geez man do you see the hypocrisy?
People have the right to complain too, I mean I wouldn't feel so good with Ken and Incineroar being the last base newcomers and not getting Geno/Isaac/Banjo.
 
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Crap-Zapper

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Tamagon actually makes some degree of sense. His archenemy — that big blue devil who points and moves the stage around — has been an Assist Trophy in the previous two Smash games. I'd rather have Lip as the retro rep, though, as she has considerably more potential for a unique moveset (focusing on damage over time and stage control via obstacles and direct repositioning).
I know about that, but I'm also on that Lip is the superior choice out of the two.
While it's true that both of them got to some degree "japan exclusivity" I don't think Tamagon is the most logical sense.
Sure, Tamagon is cute, and could make up a new define playstyle, but so could many others. At least Panel De Pon has been localized in form of Yoshi, Pokémon and Animal Crossing.

Just my view and personal opinion.
 

Imadethistoseealeak

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Am I the only one who legit thinks that Nintendo released that mock-up image of characters on the side of the box JUST to throw us off the trail?
Yes. I mean no. But there's tons of reason not to think that.

My biggest thought is that's it's only Amazon that shows the mock up box, and it's not for Amazon Japan either (they have different boxes etc.). If Nintendo really wanted to do that then they should have sent that mock up to every retailer such as Game Stop. But they didn't.

So even if it's an early misleading mock up, it's probably not intentionally one.
 

IsmaR

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For the uniformed, the stages are:
  • Either Traverse or Twilight Town
  • Street Fighter 2 Cage
  • Minecraft
  • Undertale (Undyne's Mountain?)
  • Click Clock Forest (Banjo-Kazooie)
Those are some good ****ing stages right there.
Street Fighter 2 Cage would be Flamenco Tavern/Spain, which seems too coincidental with the Vega remix and us getting so many SF tracks this time.

The rest of it still seems like low quality "too good to be true" bait.
 
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