Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Hydrualic Hydra]

>Try to be a nihilist and stop engaging in conflict and let people think what they want
>Get called an asshole for not engaging in conflict and letting people think what they want

I love Smashboards

 

[CosmicQuark]

Well, what you're describing is a hypothesis, not a theory. But anyway.

The box itself is almost entirely likely to be the final design. It replaced the original placeholder box art this month, and the game is going gold in October or early November if they plan on shipping these things in time. The fact that they very clearly followed a distinct and purposeful pattern, while deviating in only one spot to make room for a character that has to be an echo within a small span of characters, is what gives "box theory" a leg up on other "theories" or leaks.

This does not at all mean that it's proven, or that there isn't a slim chance of the box art being changed, no matter how unlikely, or that there aren't other characters after #69 inexplicably placed on the back or bottom of the box just because. Box theory is not proven true, but let's not pretend any other theory or leak is, at this point, anywhere near as credible as it is.

Also, to everyone in the thread, let's remember that A) this is the leak thread, not the speculation thread, and B) that the game will be out in two months and change. Relax. We'll all know soon and then none of this **** will matter.

You haven't explained why it's almost entirely likely, though. Because the game is going gold soon? We have no way of knowing when that art was made (only when it was used on Amazon) and have no way of knowing how far along they are in the finalized design--they could already have it, but haven't released it.

I would say the fact we all agree it's a placeholder image makes it almost entirely unlikely to be the final design. That's what a placeholder is. And aesthetically, the pattern makes no sense the way it is (discontinuous jumps in number), it's almost as if they had to fit the box with what they could display, rather than the actual, final design used.

I think the simplest explanation is better--they made the box with what they had, and if they knew enough about the final roster to know who would be in those "blank spots" then they know how to design it so that they don't inadvertently leak the characters.

 

[Shroob]

You haven't explained why it's almost entirely likely, though. Because the game is going gold soon? We have no way of knowing when that art was made (only when it was used on Amazon) and have no way how far along they are in the finalized design--they could already have it, but haven't released it.

I would say the fact we all agree it's a placeholder image makes it almost entirely unlikely to be the final design. That's what a placeholder is. And aesthetically, the pattern makes no sense the way it is (discontinuous jumps in number), it's almost as if they had to fit the box with what they could display, rather than the actual, final design used.

I think the simplest explanation is better--they made the box with what they had, and if they knew enough about the final roster to know who would be in those "blank spots" then they know how to design it so that they don't inadvertently leak the characters.

Except Ken.

 

[LetterO]

Did I miss anything? Any info from Veggieben or any leaks that seem to be reliable?

 

[Jchrono95]

Is this thread gonna keep escalating in hostility every day till we get some news? That's what it feels like

 

[Robertman2]

Did I miss anything? Any info from Veggieben or any leaks that seem to be reliable?

Still just Steve, Incineroar, Ken and Shadow, plus that Square Enix rep

 

[Shroob]

Did I miss anything? Any info from Veggieben or any leaks that seem to be reliable?

Apparently both Verg and Senjou leaked female Skullomania for SNK Heroines, and it happened today.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Is this thread gonna keep escalating in hostility every day till we get some news? That's what it feels like

Its times like this despite being very patient that the next direct or character reveal (Lucina/Robin style reveal) was announced soon just for this communities sake.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

That's my main right there. He cuts the entire game in half as his Final Smash.

Can we actually get someone to make a moveset for Phil Swift now?

There is bound to be a Super Smash Bros Lawl Moveset for him somewhere (I mean, assuming that are ones for Billy Mays and Vince Offer)

Apparently both Verg and Senjou leaked female Skullomania for SNK Heroines, and it happened today.

Wait, both? I thought it was only one of them.

 

[Deleted member]

The interesting thing about claiming the design "has" to be the final one and that "of course" it was made recently is the fact Isabelle isn't on it, which most likely means it was made a while ago to accommodate for the 8.8 Direct's information. The box is about as final as any digital mock-up, which is what it is. It isn't even a real box, and we're all assuming what the other side looks like due to a pattern that may or may not be there and may or may not be final. Music Theory was based off of a pattern too, and everyone and their brother jumped on it being dead at the snap of a finger because of one little thing.

Box Theory is as legitimate as any other theory going around right now and cannot be proven or disproven until the final character is shown. That's just what I think, though.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

You haven't explained why it's almost entirely likely, though. Because the game is going gold soon? We have no way of knowing when that art was made (only when it was used on Amazon) and have no way how far along they are in the finalized design--they could already have it, but haven't released it.

I would say the fact we all agree it's a placeholder image makes it almost entirely unlikely to be the final design. That's what a placeholder is. And aesthetically, the pattern makes no sense the way it is (discontinuous jumps in number), it's almost as if they had to fit the box with what they could display, rather than the actual, final design used.

I think the simplest explanation is better--they made the box with what they had, and if they knew enough about the final roster to know who would be in those "blank spots" then they know how to design it so that they don't inadvertently leak the characters.

While I get this point, it's contradictory because if the design choice doesn't make sense and they were just working with what they have why not just display Mario through Snake on one side and call it a day?

The weird pattern points to more thought being put into it than it just being a placeholder that will change. Also for clarification, by placeholder I mean the side will look totally different, obviously it's not finished hence the blank spots.

That's an annoying thing about the box theory. It doesn't make sense either way. Why potentially leak the roster number? Why create a convoluted pattern as a placeholder?

 

[Shroob]

There is bound to be a Super Smash Bros Lawl Moveset for him somewhere

Wait, both? I thought it was only one of them.

I keep hearing both did it, but that's why I said "Apparently".

 

[Deoxys911]

>Try to be a nihilist and stop engaging in conflict and let people think what they want
>Get called an ******* for not engaging in conflict and letting people think what they want

I love Smashboards

The true nihilists are the 200 lurkers not interacting with anyone, leaving them to enjoy total autonomy of thought.

 

[Noipoi]

I might be a little late to the party, I just got back from watching some Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee footage in an attempt to find something I like about those games.

Spoiler

It didn't work. I still hate it, yet i'm still gonna buy it because i'm an idiot.

And I come back to see some dudes slinging insults at each other!
Chill out my dudes, It's not that important. This is all for a video game, there's no need to be upset.

But if you're really riled up, you should probably take one of these.

 

[Momotsuki]

This thread has been getting... pretty toxic over the last few days. I'm gonna dip for now, until something of substance happens.

 

[staindgrey]

You haven't explained why it's almost entirely likely, though. Because the game is going gold soon? We have no way of knowing when that art was made (only when it was used on Amazon) and have no way how far along they are in the finalized design--they could already have it, but haven't released it.

I would say the fact we all agree it's a placeholder image makes it almost entirely unlikely to be the final design. That's what a placeholder is. And aesthetically, the pattern makes no sense the way it is (discontinuous jumps in number), it's almost as if they had to fit the box with what they could display, rather than the actual, final design used.

I think the simplest explanation is better--they made the box with what they had, and if they knew enough about the final roster to know who would be in those "blank spots" then they know how to design it so that they don't inadvertently leak the characters.

Ugh... I've already explained this at length to multiple people. I'm not doing it again.

But in general, the arguments of what could technically happen and what is likely to happen are not on equal terms. That said, likely is still not certain. Box theory isn't proven. People shouldn't act like it is. People also shouldn't act like music theory or leakers citing unnamed sources without evidence have equal footing, but, y'know, I'm just tired of trying to explain that to people. Like I said, this **** won't matter soon anyway and no one will learn anything from the experience.

 

[T3Z3R1]

Is this thread gonna keep escalating in hostility every day till we get some news? That's what it feels like

Honestly, yes. Looks like it, and we have alot of arguments here, but a specific discussion that just happened two days ago almost went out of the control but thanks to mod posting the reminder to stop that ****. If anything like that happens again, I have feeling that this thread would be locked AND deleted.

 

[Chrono.]

Still just Steve, Incineroar, Ken and Shadow, plus that Square Enix rep

Where the heck did Shadow come from?

 

[Luigi The President]

Feel like after the next announcement we're all gonna go back to being like old bar buddies and be mostly tided over until release.

But right now...woo boy.

 

[Shroob]

Where the heck did Shadow come from?

That Twitter guy, that's why we have soo many guests to begin with.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Where the heck did Shadow come from?

NGametheCube mentioned him in his surprisingly accurate predictions

 

[Deleted member]

I might be a little late to the party, I just got back from watching some Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee footage in an attempt to find something I like about those games.

Spoiler

It didn't work. I still hate it, yet i'm still gonna buy it because i'm an idiot.

And I come back to see some dudes slinging insults at each other!
Chill out my dudes, It's not that important. This is all for a video game, there's no need to be upset.

But if you're really riled up, you should probably take one of these.
View attachment 166956

Probably my favorite post of the day.

Let's all keep in mind that this is indeed a video game, and is definitely not worth hurling insults at each other over. Just be chill, discuss, and have fun. Maybe laugh at some silly leaks. Or talk about Phil Swift. I dunno, whatever the mods say is okay, lol.

 

[Luigi The President]

NGametheCube mentioned him in his surprisingly accurate predictions

Ahh you mean his 2 incredibly obvious predictions, his 1 prediction Verge had beforehand and the 1 actually interesting one that people in this very thread guessed before as well

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think that Twitter post could be a possibility since

69: Incineroar
70: Steve

But I still believe we'd get two other echos as well to round it out to 70 unique fighters and 10 echo fighters. Thinking it'd be Dixie Kong(36e) and hoping Medusa(54e).

Then obviously Geno would be our first DLC character.

I'll still only accept Steve under the condition Banjo is DLC.

 

[Shroob]

Ahh you mean his 2 incredibly obvious predictions, his 1 prediction Verge had beforehand and the 1 actually interesting one that people in this very thread guessed before as well

Yep, but thanks to r/Smashbros, we had like 300 guests last night, and it seems like a good chunk are still here.

 

[Chrono.]

That Twitter guy, that's why we have soo many guests to begin with.

NGametheCube mentioned him in his surprisingly accurate predictions

Oh yeah... Forgot him lol.

I think he's just a rando dude making predictions tbh.

 

[ZenythSmash]

i just realized now
why do box "theorists" say Incineroar and Ken are the last ones?
because if its about Vergeben, he's rumoring more than 3-4 characters now, meaning possible Steve and the mystery S-E rep would be in the mix.

the point of the box stuff was that it implies there are 2 characters left, so where's evidence it will be those two as base game finalists?

 

[CosmicQuark]

While I get this point, it's contradictory because if the design choice doesn't make sense and they were just working with what they have why not just display Mario through Snake on one side and call it a day?

The weird pattern points to more thought being put into it than it just being a placeholder that will change. Also for clarification, by placeholder I mean the side will look totally different, obviously it's not finished hence the blank spots.

That's an annoying thing about the box theory. It doesn't make sense either way. Why potentially leak the roster number? Why create a convoluted pattern as a placeholder?

I agree that it doesn't make sense either way. There could be just as convoluted reasons we're not privy to explain the convoluted design (as a hypothetical, a couple of companies like Square did not approve of their characters being on the placeholder image, and so they had to make the only pattern that fit). But if the assumption is the people making the box know the final character count--they would want to avoid giving away that information in the picture, unless the idea is they're intentionally leaking the roster? Mistakes have been made, but that negative space as well as final character count is hard to avoid if putting as much attention to detail into it as is claimed.

I think the one thing we can agree on, however, is that it's weird.

Ugh... I've already explained this at length to multiple people. I'm not doing it again.

But in general, the arguments of what could technically happen and what is likely to happen are not on equal terms. That said, likely is still not certain. Box theory isn't proven. People shouldn't act like it is. People also shouldn't act like music theory or leakers citing unnamed sources without evidence have equal footing, but, y'know, I'm just tired of trying to explain that to people. Like I said, this **** won't matter soon anyway and no one will learn anything from the experience.

And I get tired of explaining my side as whenever I do talk about Box Theory (which is why I rarely chime in when it pops up again), what I'm saying is not getting across and it's hard to not keep repeating myself. What I was mainly pointing out is you said it was almost certainly likely, and I disagreed. Based on its assumptions, I would say blog theory > music theory > box theory. Of course the assumptions of blog theory came into conflict with Sakurai's recent comments--that also doesn't make box theory more or less likely as a result, and I still contend Box Theory is the least likely to be correct. Hopefully we get real information soon, though.

 

[Luigi The President]

Incineroar, Steve, and the SE rep is what I'm gonna die by.

Now the Echoes I'm a whole lot less sure about besides Ken.

 

[SuperiorYoshi87]

Honestly, yes. Looks like it, and we have alot of arguments here, but a specific discussion that just happened two days ago almost went out of the control but thanks to mod posting the reminder to stop that ****. If anything like that happens again, I have feeling that this thread would be locked AND deleted.

I was around for the old leaks and rumors thread I'm surprised they let this exist... after the last one you'd think the boards would have learned.. I'm still expecting this thread to be locked any day now.. if nothing else it's a great read... people get worked up over the littlest things..

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Ahh you mean his 2 incredibly obvious predictions, his 1 prediction Verge had beforehand and the 1 actually interesting one that people in this very thread guessed before as well

Oh yeah... Forgot him lol.

I think he's just a rando dude making predictions tbh.

https://twitter.com/NGameTheCube/status/1045395816582537216

Yeah, i don't trust him as a source... He's just a really good predictor

 

[amazonevan19]

NGametheCube mentioned him in his surprisingly accurate predictions

https://twitter.com/NGameTheCube/status/1045395816582537216

 

[Jchrono95]

Only reason I want Steve? next cause he has to be #69. If he's not what's even the point

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Only reason I want Steve? next cause he has to be #69. If he's not what's even the point

If anything I think Incineroar will be 69 and Steve is 70 that's unless Steve gets revealed at Minecon that is which might not happen.

 

[staindgrey]

Feel like after the next announcement we're all gonna go back to being like old bar buddies and be mostly tided over until release.

But right now...woo boy.

I apologize if I ever seem agitated. I love good debates-- what I find here is rarely a good debate and I have a hard time letting those go. But I mean no ill will toward anyone. I like you guys.

 

[Jchrono95]

If anything I think Incineroar will be 69 and Steve is 70 that's unless Steve gets revealed at Minecon that is which might not happen.

Yeah, but "69 Steve" would be great

 

[Luigi The President]

I apologize if I ever seem agitated. I love good debates-- what I find here is rarely a good debate and I have a hard time letting those go. But I mean no ill will toward anyone. I like you guys.

Oh I just mean in general haha

Love the icon btw!

 

[Deleted member]

i just realized now
why do box "theorists" say Incineroar and Ken are the last ones?
because if its about Vergeben, he's rumoring more than 3-4 characters now, meaning possible Steve and the mystery S-E rep would be in the mix.

the point of the box stuff was that it implies there are 2 characters left, so where's evidence it will be those two as base game finalists?

People argue they're DLC, and Verge isn't 100% on Steve. There isn't evidence that really points to either or right now past taking Verge for his word, so it's kinda up to you what on what you wanna believe.

 

[RandomAce]

Ah, but you're assuming the 2015 timeframe means anything in this case.


Senjou, though I don't actually believe them, said the Granblue character was in talks to be in via DLC, and DLC talks are most likely happening now and within the last few months.


In 2018, Granblue is bigger than it's ever been, and the 2015 finalization of the roster means nothing for DLC characters, is that not why we say characters like Rex and Spring Man are such 'obvious' DLC picks?

Ah, that was a mistake on my part...

However, even though Grandblue is bigger than it ever is... there is something about it that makes this possibility a big reach. Sure it is big now, but it still isn’t in the levels of other third parties and potential new ones, hasn’t been requested, nor is it close to Nintendo to be an exception. In fact, the Grandblue game coming to consoles is an exclusive after all that is on the PS4.

Like I said, I wouldn’t undersell Dragalia Lost just yet. It can be mediocre, but it can also be one of Nintendo’s newest biggest hits this year.

 

[staindgrey]

i just realized now
why do box "theorists" say Incineroar and Ken are the last ones?
because if its about Vergeben, he's rumoring more than 3-4 characters now, meaning possible Steve and the mystery S-E rep would be in the mix.

the point of the box stuff was that it implies there are 2 characters left, so where's evidence it will be those two as base game finalists?

You clearly haven't actually read the box theory. I'll summarize:

The box follows a very deliberate pattern, grouping characters in their numbered order in groups of nine, then mixing those groups back and forth between each other to spread out representation (so all the originals aren't all on one side and all the newcomers are on the other). In this order, echo characters are listed right next to the characters they're based off of. The only character to deviate from this pattern is Corrin, who should be on the left side of the box, but ends up on the right instead. This implies that the previous group that Corrin should have been has an echo character in it. Within this group, Ken is the most likely one.

Because Verge predicted Ken and Incineroar, people started grouping that predicition and box theory together. But really, all box theory surmises is that, on the box, there's one echo between Palutena and Cloud, and one newcomer at the end after Isabelle. It doesn't matter who that newcomer is.