Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Shroob]

I think the weirdest thing is, in a sense, we've gone too long without "The" leak to quiet us.


Think about it. With Smash 4 we had Gematsu, and even when Gematsu failed, the ESRB leak came out of nowhere and basically spoiled it.


Gematsu basically cultured speculation around it for a solid year, and even after it failed, "Oh WHOOPS, Here's the whole damn roster!"


With this game? The speculation cycle has been a lot shorter, but due to how information releasing has been handled, it's 'felt' longer since we have no real blog or pic of the day, and our one 'potentially' right leaker, Vergeben, is basically a 50/50 in our community because "EASY GUESSES"


The Ken leak, if it's real, is the closest we have to the ESRB leak this time, and even then, this is what happens when speculation lives too long without enough stuff in-between.

We speculate about music and boxes and chairs and the blog and Donkey Kong scratching his ass and I want it to be over already.

 

[Noipoi]

As a chocolate chip cooke connoisseur, I can assure you that we have an abundant amount of cookies. Top quality too.

Nihilist theory is also great because with it, you can believe whatever the **** you want. You don't need evidence. Who needs that? Just believe what you want to believe and disregard all of the false profits.

Guests, I implore you to disregard these false profits. Box theory, Blog theory, Music theory, Chair theory, all are built on circumstantial data that is impossible to prove. Do not believe in their lies. Instead, believe in your own truth, and you shall not be disappointed.

I'll count it.
List of people supporting Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

We've got 2.5. Our numbers are slowly growing. Get on while we're on the ground.

Eh, why not. Count me in, I never bought into boxes or music or chairs or whatever.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

All leaks exist on purpose
No character is guaranteed
Everyone's gonna get leaked
Come play Smash

Taking that for our new theory explanation.

I think the weirdest thing is, in a sense, we've gone too long without "The" leak to quiet us.


Think about it. With Smash 4 we had Gematsu, and even when Gematsu failed, the ESRB leak came out of nowhere and basically spoiled it.


Gematsu basically cultured speculation around it for a solid year, and even after it failed, "Oh WHOOPS, Here's the whole damn roster!"


With this game? The speculation cycle has been a lot shorter, but due to how information releasing has been handled, it's 'felt' longer since we have no real blog or pic of the day, and our one 'potentially' right leaker, Vergeben, is basically a 50/50 in our community because "EASY GUESSES"


The Ken leak, if it's real, is the closest we have to the ESRB leak this time, and even then, this is what happens when speculation lives too long without enough stuff in-between.

We speculate about music and boxes and chairs and the blog and Donkey Kong scratching his *** and I want it to be over already.

Also taking this because I agree.

If anybody out there has the real information it'd be nice if you were to just leak it right now so the ****storm can be over sooner. Thank you very much.

Eh, why not. Count me in, I never bought into boxes or music or chairs or whatever.

List of people who support Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

3.5 now boys. Our ranks have more than tripled!

 

[Deoxys911]

Guests, I implore you to disregard these false profits. Box theory, Blog theory, Music theory, Chair theory, all are built on circumstantial data that is impossible to prove. Do not believe in their lies. Instead, believe in your own truth, and you shall not be disappointed.

Are you implying chair theory is based on any kind of actual data? I bet you couldn't type that with a straight face.

 

[Jchrono95]

Taking that for our new theory explanation.

Also taking this because I agree.

If anybody out there has the real information it'd be nice if you were to just leak it right now so the ****storm can be over sooner. Thank you very much.

List of people who support Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

3.5 now boys. Our ranks have more than tripled!

Count me in I guess cause it'll literally change nothing about what I think.

And isn't that completely in the spirit of what nihilist theory aims for?

 

[LetterO]

Nihilist rookie here for duty!

 

[Jgt044]

Taking that for our new theory explanation.

Also taking this because I agree.

If anybody out there has the real information it'd be nice if you were to just leak it right now so the ****storm can be over sooner. Thank you very much.

List of people who support Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

3.5 now boys. Our ranks have more than tripled!

I'll join too, cause why not. I never really cared too much about all the theories. I'd rather just believe whatever I want to believe (which pretty much only comes down to Geno so.....yeah there's that lol)

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Taking that for our new theory explanation.

Also taking this because I agree.

If anybody out there has the real information it'd be nice if you were to just leak it right now so the ****storm can be over sooner. Thank you very much.

List of people who support Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

3.5 now boys. Our ranks have more than tripled!

Count me in. Different colored chairs will no longer divide the community!

 

[Fenriraga]

Someone mind filling me in/linking me what the nihilist theory is?

 

[Shroob]

Someone mind filling me in/linking me what the nihilist theory is?

That all the other theories are dumb and we should just wait.

 

[Fenriraga]

That all the other theories are dumb and we should just wait.

Oh **** yeah, get me in on that action DaybreakHorizon .

 

[Shroob]

It's honestly ironic how it's almost like Sakurai himself descended and smacked some **** into the blog theory today.

GameExplain puts out a thirty minute video on it?

3 veterans a week meaning 6-7 more characters?

Sakurai, "Nope, two characters this week, my friend. Also, newcomer reveals are gonna slow down, okay?"




If they start slowing down now and focus on getting **** from 8.8 on the blog covered to get us closer to the next Direct, all those cries of "Well the math says they won't slow down..." is........ pretty....

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Nihilist theory?

Where in the heck do all these theories keep popping out from!?

 

[hposter]

That all the other theories are dumb and we should just wait.

that's more just patience than anything, but consider me a supporter

 

[ZenythSmash]

Some interesting things have been shared in the mimique discord regarding ZachTheNCube, apparently he "guessed" these things before:

View attachment 166844
View attachment 166845
View attachment 166846
View attachment 166847

Just recently, Zach posted these tweets:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

There was a problem fetching the tweet

I am keeping a close eye on him.

oooh boy

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Alright, so far we got these guys for Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Fenriraga
PK-remling Fire
Jgt044
Jchrono95
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

We're always open whenever the rest of you want to transcend past your theorizing limits.

 

[Deleted member]

We do run into a legitimate problem, though.

They can only "slow down" on characters on the blog for a short amount of time.

We have this many to appear on the blog:
ultshulk:
Plus Ken and Incineroar at the bare minimum.


Unless there's a week or two with four fighters in the week instead of three, we can't do more weeks of only two. That'll run into past release (unless there really isn't more Newcomers than Ken and Incineroar I guess...)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I think the weirdest thing is, in a sense, we've gone too long without "The" leak to quiet us.


Think about it. With Smash 4 we had Gematsu, and even when Gematsu failed, the ESRB leak came out of nowhere and basically spoiled it.


Gematsu basically cultured speculation around it for a solid year, and even after it failed, "Oh WHOOPS, Here's the whole damn roster!"


With this game? The speculation cycle has been a lot shorter, but due to how information releasing has been handled, it's 'felt' longer since we have no real blog or pic of the day, and our one 'potentially' right leaker, Vergeben, is basically a 50/50 in our community because "EASY GUESSES"


The Ken leak, if it's real, is the closest we have to the ESRB leak this time, and even then, this is what happens when speculation lives too long without enough stuff in-between.

We speculate about music and boxes and chairs and the blog and Donkey Kong scratching his *** and I want it to be over already.

Smash 4 speculation definitely felt a lot longer than this imo, Pic of the Day was better than the blog, but about half of the updates were still useless, and for a solid year we were just running in circles around Gematsu (which had, and somehow still has the same "easy guesses" detractors that Verg has). People were also incredibly pessimistic overall, someone would go "X character would be cool" and that discussion would just be shut down immediately, because it obviously wasn't realistic, even if the character's likelihood was never brought up. As a Ridley fan it was of course particularly gruelling aswell with the Pyrosphere mess, it was a situation that was handled equally poorly by both the Smash team and the Ridley fanbase.

By the time E3 2014 rolled around I was just ****ing done with the game, speculation had turned so incredibly negative, and I couldn't bear to look at even one more Smash Run related Pic of the Day. The event itself was also a mess on here as Gematsu was only heavily reinforced while people were moaning the gameplay looked like Brawl 2.0. When I think of what characterized Smash 4 speculation I always come back to negativity, towards the end it just wasn't a good time at all.

 

[Shroob]

We do run into a legitimate problem, though.

They can only "slow down" on characters on the blog for a short amount of time.

We have this many to appear on the blog:
ultshulk:
Plus Ken and Incineroar at the bare minimum.


Unless there's a week or two with four fighters in the week instead of three, we can't do more weeks of only two. That'll run into past release (unless there really isn't more Newcomers than Ken and Incineroar I guess...)

I think the answer to this is:


How many items/Pokemon/Assists are left from 8.8?

 

[TreeBranch]

I guess I'm on board with the Nihilist theory.
I gotta wonder where it fits into the theory theory though...

 

[ZenythSmash]

>Guess Ridley,Ice Climbers and Isabelle who let's be honest, only Ridley could be hard but ResetEra was already spilling the beans about him
>Can't guess Simon the leaked Belmont
>Ken/Incineroar are here for God knows how long thanks to Verge
>Call Minecraft around the time that Reddit guy call it
>Geno when Vergeben who probably have the best source of all leakers we knows explained the ****ing security measures taken for the Square-Rep

Yare yare daze.

yeah knew there was something suspicious about it
dude didn't call up K.Rool either.

 

[dezeray112]

Some interesting things have been shared in the mimique discord regarding ZachTheNCube, apparently he "guessed" these things before:

View attachment 166844
View attachment 166845
View attachment 166846
View attachment 166847

Just recently, Zach posted these tweets:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

There was a problem fetching the tweet

I am keeping a close eye on him.

This is very interesting. Will probably keep my tabs on him.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I guess I'm on board with the Nihilist theory.
I gotta wonder where it fits into the theory theory though...

I'm just gonna quote this with each new addition.

Alright, so far we got these guys for Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Fenriraga
PK-remling Fire
Jgt044
Jchrono95
Zinith (kinda, but not really)
Shadowwolflink
Hydrualic Hydra
TreeBranch
We're always open whenever the rest of you want to transcend past your theorizing limits.
View attachment 166900

I am willing to take this to the General Thread if it doesn't pertain to this discussion, but since we've practically turned into a Leaks and Theories thread, I believe this fits.

So, it's basically all of the "theories" are stupid and we should just wait patiently for official news and/or leaks? I'm in if that's the case.

That's us. Welcome to the club my friend.

Sign me up for Nihilist Theory. It's high past time I shed this mortal coil and transcend my vain attempts at navigating my mind through the endless expanse of Sakurai's thought process.

Welcome. Congratulations on your ascendance.

Geez this is sounding like a cult now. Just so you guys know we are actually totally not a cult.

 

[Shadowwolflink]

Alright, so far we got these guys for Nihilist theory:
DaybreakHorizon
Shroob
Noipoi
Fenriraga
PK-remling Fire
Jgt044
Jchrono95
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

We're always open whenever the rest of you want to transcend past your theorizing limits.
View attachment 166900

So, it's basically all of the "theories" are stupid and we should just wait patiently for official news and/or leaks? I'm in if that's the case.

 

[Shroob]

Smash 4 speculation definitely felt a lot longer than this imo, Pic of the Day was better than the blog, but about half of the updates were still useless, and for a solid year we were just running in circles around Gematsu (which had, and somehow still has the same "easy guesses" detractors that Verg has). People were also incredibly pessimistic overall, someone would go "X character would be cool" and that discussion would just be shut down immediately, because it obviously wasn't realistic, even if the character's likelihood was never brought up. As a Ridley fan it was of course particularly gruelling aswell with the Pyrosphere mess, it was a situation that was handled equally poorly by both the Smash team and the Ridley fanbase.

By the time E3 2014 rolled around I was just ****ing done with the game, speculation had turned so incredibly negative, and I couldn't bear to look at even one more Smash Run related Pic of the Day. The event itself was also a mess on here as Gematsu was only heavily reinforced while people were moaning the gameplay looked like Brawl 2.0. When I think of what characterized Smash 4 speculation I always come back to negativity, towards the end it just wasn't a good time at all.

Eh, I'm of two minds about Smash4 speculation.


In a way, I actually liked Gematsu since it let people kind of 'expect' what was coming, and to curb your expectations.



To me, it's frustrating as **** that Sakurai has told us now THREE different times to "Don't expect a lot more!" and seeing people go "Oh sweet, 6-8 more characters BECAUSE SAKURAI'S SUCH A TROLL!"

 

[TreeBranch]

I'm just gonna quote this with each new addition.

I am willing to take this to the General Thread if it doesn't pertain to this discussion, but since we've practically turned into a Leaks and Theories thread, I believe this fits.

That's us. Welcome to the club my friend.

Lel sorry I stole bluepikmin's avatar I've been meaning to change it

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Sign me up for Nihilist Theory. It's high past time I shed this mortal coil and transcend my vain attempts at navigating my mind through the endless expanse of Sakurai's thought process.

 

[Johnknight1]

Drought? Lacking something substantial? That's insane and insatiable, we got six newcomer reveals in the last two months. You know the last time we got six newcomer reveals in the span of two months? That's right, it was never.

It's actually crazy to think about. 5 newcomers were confirmed in a Smash Direct equals the amount confirmed in the Brawl reveal (which were the only newcomers we got for over 18 months) and if you count all of E3 2014 as one (with the 3 Mii Fighters, Palutena and Pac-Man) that too.

Folks... that Smash Direct was an anomaly. We can maybe expect like 2 trailers before the final blowout Smash Direct, but let's not get crazy. Anything past 76-82 is a bit crazy (pre-DLC; DLC is a whole other issue).

Let's not let the leaks that tell us "we are getting 10 new characters" to lead us to disappointment. It reminds me of the fake Brawl leak with 45 characters the way some people are approaching this game after a few leaks.

Just... take a breath. You guys will never be satisfied if learning of 73 characters and 103 stages in the last four months seems inconsequential.

What's crazy is you are wrong; we have 74 characters confirmed... and I still have some small instinct telling me this whole game is fake.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Eh, I'm of two minds about Smash4 speculation.


In a way, I actually liked Gematsu since it let people kind of 'expect' what was coming, and to curb your expectations.



To me, it's frustrating as **** that Sakurai has told us now THREE different times to "Don't expect a lot more!" and seeing people go "Oh sweet, 6-8 more characters BECAUSE SAKURAI'S SUCH A TROLL!"

Let people shoot themselves in the foot then, I've also tried to play down expectations, but it's a lost cause. And honestly, I'd rather have a party that ends up in disaster, like with Brawl, instead of a total downer that ends up with negative reactions anyways.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Let people shoot themselves in the foot then, I've also tried to play down expectations, but it's a lost cause. And honestly, I'd rather have a party that ends up in disaster, like with Brawl, instead of a total downer that ends up with negative reactions anyways.

Have you heard about our lord and savior Nihilist theory? /s

Regardless, I'd like to prevent a complete disaster like Brawl, and a horrible meltdown like Sm4sh. The sad thing is that we've reached the point where most people are so deeply convinced of their opinions that they refuse to believe anything else, and it's reached the point where, when faced with evidence and calm sayings of "temper your expectations," they lash out. A great example of this is the people white-knighting for Blog theory right now, as they're so desperate for it to be true that they flame those who don't believe it because they don't even want to think of the possibility that it's wrong.

Can any of our Brawl Speculation Veterans let us know if it was like this back then?

 

[Isaac for Smash Pls]

Sure was nice of Sakurai to tell people to temper their expectations. The pace of reveals is slowing down because once he reveals Isaac, honestly how do you ever follow that up? So good on you, Sakurai, for assuring us that Isaac is on the way...

....pls

 

[Iko MattOrr]

I think the answer to this is:


How many items/Pokemon/Assists are left from 8.8?

I can't remember precisely, but I calculated it itme ago, if I remember well it was something like 11 (worst case) to 19 (best case), because Sakurai said "More than" and not a precise number.

But math has been wrong in the past and it seems to be wrong about the amount of stages too, so take it with a grain of salt (there's in abundance recently).

EDIT: I was talking only about assist trophies, I don't know about items.

 

[Shroob]

I can't remember precisely, but I calculated it itme ago, if I remember well it was something like 11 (worst case) to 19 (best case), because Sakurai said "More than" and not a precise number.

But math has been wrong in the past and it seems to be wrong about the amount of stages too, so take it with a grain of salt (there's in abundance recently).

EDIT: I was talking only about assist trophies, I don't know about items.

Stages I'm not terribly worried about because at 1 stage a week, it's literally impossible for them to get through all of them in time.


The BIG issue is that they dragged their heels on Items and Assists for soo long that it's gotten to the point that, yes, actually, they could just skip over October while playing catch up.

 

[Johnknight1]

Have you heard about our lord and savior Nihilist theory? /s

Regardless, I'd like to prevent a complete disaster like Brawl, and a horrible meltdown like Sm4sh. The sad thing is that we've reached the point where most people are so deeply convinced of their opinions that they refuse to believe anything else, and it's reached the point where, when faced with evidence and calm sayings of "temper your expectations," they lash out. A great example of this is the people white-knighting for Blog theory right now, as they're so desperate for it to be true that they flame those who don't believe it because they don't even want to think of the possibility that it's wrong.

Can any of our Brawl Speculation Veterans let us know if it was like this back then?

Brawl speculation was just "empty time" after SamuraiPanda (aka the guy who now owns Panda Global; funny how that works) and it was fun. That's where a lot of ideas still said and developed to this day come from, such as organized Donkey Kong franchise character support (namely Diddy > K. Rool > Dixie), the Ridley demand getting organized, Animal Crossing character ideas, the Mega Man and Pac-Man demand, the craze for Sonic, Geno fandom, Little Mac demand, Ike becoming popular online outside of Japan, the want for Ryu and Simon Belmont, etc.

Then the blog update hit August 1, 2007 revealing Ike and things changed. And it got nuts real fast (sad we got blog posts for newcomers and not new trailers). Then the big one happened... we got Sonic. After leakers leaked the entire roster about that time that were promptly ignored (notable Smashboards mod and Bowser main Gimpyfish even labelled one such true leaker a "liar" in a post edit), things got out of hand.

People started expecting 45 characters because of another leak people chose to believe, and it had all the same characters as the real roster (except ROB IIRC), but also had Mewtwo, Roy, Mega Man, Ridley, and I think like K. Rool, Geno, Dr. Mario or Bowser Jr? It was nuts. People were blowing up for that, and some people had meltdowns. I believed it for a while, but I generally held the belief the whole time the roster would be about 40 characters, which kept me sane.

As for Smash 4, people were just upset Ice Climbers, Wolf, Snake, Lucas, Mewtwo (again), etc. But hey, at least that gave people time to digest the final roster and not be as rash... well most people. Some people still went off.

DLC for Smash 4 fixed a lot of those issues; adding Mewtwo, Roy and Lucas really lifted spirits along with the release of Ryu and especially Cloud too.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Stages I'm not terribly worried about because at 1 stage a week, it's literally impossible for them to get through all of them in time.


The BIG issue is that they dragged their heels on Items and Assists for soo long that it's gotten to the point that, yes, actually, they could just skip over October while playing catch up.

oh wait, I just realized something... I may have misunderstood you.
11 to 19 are the assist trophies who are still not announced after the 8.8 presentation.
Probably what you meant was, the assist trophies shown during the 8.8 presentation that have not been covered by the blog yet?
Sorry.

I don't know about the blog because I'm not really following it, as someone already said, it only shows stuff we already know and I'm not much interested.

 

[Nekoo]

Have you heard about our lord and savior Nihilist theory? /s

Regardless, I'd like to prevent a complete disaster like Brawl, and a horrible meltdown like Sm4sh. The sad thing is that we've reached the point where most people are so deeply convinced of their opinions that they refuse to believe anything else, and it's reached the point where, when faced with evidence and calm sayings of "temper your expectations," they lash out. A great example of this is the people white-knighting for Blog theory right now, as they're so desperate for it to be true that they flame those who don't believe it because they don't even want to think of the possibility that it's wrong.

Can any of our Brawl Speculation Veterans let us know if it was like this back then?

Yes.
"Ridley is in the CLOUDS of the SSE intro!!!1!!1 he's playable!!1!11!"
"Third Parties ruined Smash!!!1!!1! Sonic and Snake are the last one ev4r!!1!1!1!1"
"NESS IS CUT THE BLOG TALKED ABOUT HIM IN THE PAST WAY!"

And it was the slow beginning of people taking their Characters as lock and shoes in.

 

[N3ON]

You guys do know the characters won't stop with the game's release, right?

So I don't really care which theory, if any, is right. None will be indicative of the final roster or the last chance for unrevealed candidates.

 

[Johnknight1]

Sign me up for Nihilist Theory. It's high past time I shed this mortal coil and transcend my vain attempts at navigating my mind through the endless expanse of Sakurai's thought process.

I just want to join the Nihilist Theory because I honestly want more Echo Fighters and I just need to tell everyone... I found a nice unopened wine bottle in a box today, which is nice.

Additionally so far Sakurai seems to have the "one up" on leakers. Not sure I believe Steve (or if it's a game of "leaker copycat"), though I've admitted it makes sense. But Incineroar, Shadow and Ken have been a "known thing" since the Smash Direct, and it's not because of leaks, but basic logic.

I would not rule out Sakurai having that "one more thing" at the end like he had at E3 after "EVERYONE IS HERE!" (Ridley) or the Smash Direct last month (King K. Rool)... or just information that hasn't gotten out to leakers.

Skull Kid, Isaac, Heihachi Mishima, Rex, Spring Man, Banjo, etc... other relevant characters are still in play.

Not that it's a huge deal if we miss any of those characters. We already got all the "necessary" characters... and DLC still exists. Who knows how many seasons of DLC this game will go on for? Having at least 1.5 years of post-release DLC characters is all the rage now in fighting games; Smash 4 wasn't an exception.

 

[Nekoo]

You guys do know the characters won't stop with the game's release, right?

So I don't really care which theory, if any, is right. None will be indicative of the final roster or the last chance for unrevealed candidates.

I think people are just discussing the Base game roster. And we do know that we will at the very least know the whole roster before the game release by Sakurai's own words.

And that there is only two months left.
Alongside the slow down of reveals.

And people don't want to believe that Nintendo started to work or at least planned DLC because they believe the PR talks.

 

[N3ON]

I think people are just discussing the Base game roster. And we do know that we will at the very least know the whole roster before the game release by Sakurai's own words.

And that there is only two months left.
Alongside the slow down of reveals.

And people don't want to believe that Nintendo started to work or at least planned DLC because they believe the PR talks.

In terms of discussing which one might be legitimate, fair enough. Though there's no more ground to be gained there (though what else is new); only waiting will answer those questions.

But reactions based on the number of "remaining fighters" seems a bit short-sighted to me, DLC is very much on the horizon. And if people don't believe Nintendo already has made serious progress on getting the post-launch support going, they're being naive, sorry to say.