Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Johnknight1]

I think people are just discussing the Base game roster. And we do know that we will at the very least know the whole roster before the game release by Sakurai's own words.

And that there is only two months left.
Alongside the slow down of reveals.

And people don't want to believe that Nintendo started to work or at least planned DLC because they believe the PR talks.

I don't think a lot of us can comprehend DLC because the base roster is all so nuts. The leaks for DLC are going to be so insane and hard to keep track of. A lot of "leakers" (real and fake) are leaking a lot of the same information. If multiple of them get things right (both real leakers and fakers), this could lead to some reallllllly confusing leak speculation and a lot of disappointment and anger.

We all have some inclination as to who most of the newcomers we will see on the base roster and as DLC. There's not a lot of characters left that are relevant and interesting in the character pool. That means more fake leakers will guess things right and give away some false positives and false hope.

 

[osby]

Alright, so far we got these guys for Nihilist theory:
@tehponycorn
Shroob
@Noipoi
@Fenriraga
@PK-remling Fire
@Jgt044
@Jchrono95
Zinith (kinda, but not really)

We're always open whenever the rest of you want to transcend past your theorizing limits.
View attachment 166900

Eh, whatever, count me in, I have no interest in any other theories. Nihilist Theory forever!

I don't think a lot of us can comprehend DLC because the base roster is all so nuts. The leaks for DLC are going to be so insane and hard to keep track of. A lot of "leakers" (real and fake) are leaking a lot of the same information. If multiple of them get things right (both real leakers and fakers), this could lead to some reallllllly confusing leak speculation and a lot of disappointment and anger.

We all have some inclination as to who most of the newcomers we will see on the base roster and as DLC. There's not a lot of characters left that are relevant and interesting in the character pool. That means more fake leakers will guess things right and give away some false positives and false hope.

I feel like DLC speculation would be pretty much like last time. People will expect pre-Brawl characters and get salty if/when new characters get in or get angry at Sakurai because he picked a niche guest fighter instead of a niche guest fighter that they wanted.

 

[DutchPichu]

What's the nihilist theory anyway?

 

[IsmaR]

I'm just gonna quote this with each new addition.

I am willing to take this to the General Thread if it doesn't pertain to this discussion, but since we've practically turned into a Leaks and Theories thread, I believe this fits.

It doesn't. And it isn't theorycraft: the thread. The purpose stands as "serious discussion about leaks."

All this personal theory talk, opinions on speculation as a process/whole and so on goes hand in hand with the leak talk, but when it starts crossing "Hey post here if you also exist!" level of not-General Discussion, then the point is long lost.

tl;dr - It probably is better for the general thread, or at least smarter not to get infracted here for it, ashe far as making a theory/listing everyone goes.

Regardless, I'd like to prevent a complete disaster like Brawl, and a horrible meltdown like Sm4sh. The sad thing is that we've reached the point where most people are so deeply convinced of their opinions that they refuse to believe anything else, and it's reached the point where, when faced with evidence and calm sayings of "temper your expectations," they lash out. A great example of this is the people white-knighting for Blog theory right now, as they're so desperate for it to be true that they flame those who don't believe it because they don't even want to think of the possibility that it's wrong.

Can any of our Brawl Speculation Veterans let us know if it was like this back then?

Spoiler

I'm completely aware people are bored out of their minds/have watched enough paint dry, but none of this holds any candle to previous speculation periods.

Calling any of this comparable to a "meltdown" is laughable at best.

• Having nothing to go off of was the norm for a majority of the time. No blog until a year after Brawl, no demos, not even knowing what characters were returning. By the time they actually got the ball rolling, most of us were already insane.
• Any "theories" seen nowadays are much tamer in comparison to the widely accepted ones during early Brawl/pre-Smash 4 reveal. The ones like "Ridley in the clouds/shadows" became memes, but a disproportionate amount of users actually subscribed to conspiracy theories that made even that look at least kind of logical.
• Even in the face of undeniable evidence, people would still argue things "couldn't happen" and at the time there was no precedent to tell us otherwise. We had no way of knowing things like poor translation/phrasing ("up until nowa fighter named Ness appeared"), "rules" that didn't actually exist ("we can't get more clones/there's no way clones won't get decloned/they'd never take out original moveset characters like Mewtwo") nor that actual leaks would happen (not just text ones, but things like the sticker leak in Brawl or Ganondorf in the magnifying lens during a Smash 4 commercial)
• Information/how things spread was much more limited back then. Anything that was not Smash Dojo/exclusive game journalist articles directly would often come from translations or off-camera impressions from people that played at the few events that did have early builds. It was easy for things like "I saw Chunky as an assist trophy" to blow up/be taken as word of mouth, and thus influence speculation trends/predictions. Similar to the attitude people have now for "all but confirmed" leaks, anyone that didn't have _____ was written off instantly as fake.
• Information for things like the Dojo/Miiverse updates did in fact go past launch date, so denial until we saw things ourselves was much more common (not helped by the fact that the games released earlier in different regions). Just because they're revealing every fighter this time doesn't mean the site will follow any patterns to a T (they could update for much longer after launch this time with just how much content is left, as much people feel otherwise).
• Probably most important of all, there was no "definitely happening for the next game/DLC" mentality. For a lot of character groups, not getting in at that specific time was the end of it. Which led to obviously much more discontent, flaming, sworn oaths to "never buy the game" and so on. Any outcry now, potential or not, isn't anything new. We just have much more loud/obnoxious ways to expose it now with the advent of social media.

I could go on, but for all it's worth, it really doesn't mean much in the end. Having participated in/have spent as much time hating it this long, I can't say I have plans to stop speculation. The ride is awful, the passengers are louder each time, often ends in a collision at the end, and hardly any of it matters in the grand scheme of things. But getting there wouldn't be as... interesting, without it. Whatever "it" means to you is whatever you invest.

Don't put any stock into however loud others are being, they'll move on eventually. The best way to convince anyone is waiting/letting them see for themselves how things turn out. In this case it doesn't even matter much which side ends up being "right." With everything we've already got, a "nihilist" perspective seems impossible, or at least inconsequential.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Have you heard about our lord and savior Nihilist theory? /s

Regardless, I'd like to prevent a complete disaster like Brawl, and a horrible meltdown like Sm4sh. The sad thing is that we've reached the point where most people are so deeply convinced of their opinions that they refuse to believe anything else, and it's reached the point where, when faced with evidence and calm sayings of "temper your expectations," they lash out. A great example of this is the people white-knighting for Blog theory right now, as they're so desperate for it to be true that they flame those who don't believe it because they don't even want to think of the possibility that it's wrong.

Can any of our Brawl Speculation Veterans let us know if it was like this back then?

Brawl more than had its own fair share of theories, they were usually more character-specific than related to how much was left though. Ridley in the clouds is the infamous one, that combined with his theme being revealed on the site + Norfair made people way too confident in him. There also was the cannonball that shot Mario away in the opening cutscene for SSE, which was taken as hinting at K. Rool by some, and that only gained more traction once they showed the cutscene where DK had his bananas stolen (promptly ignoring the fact that it were Mario enemies which did it). What little we had seen of SSE was used a lot in theories, usually to support characters people wanted, and some stretched really far.

Like Johnknight1 said there also was a lot of arguments about which leak would turn out legitimate towards the end, and the one he mentions was actually 48 characters iirc, so 35 vs 48 characters was a very heated debate, but the latter saw so much support not just because it was what people wanted, but also because the characters on it supported a lot of these theories.

That, and people were just much more prone to believe fake leaks back then, now we've been fooled so many times that we've grown numb to them, but back then we hadn't yet had those negative experiences with them. I remember there was a rumor that Bowser Jr., Ridley and Krystal had been confirmed in some French radio interview or something, and it gained way too much traction for what it actually was. And yes, I ate up all the Ridley theories and rumors back then.

Also, just as an aside, some people were speculating the ROB on the real leak was ROB64 from Star Fox because the actual ROB was obviously deconfirmed, lol.

 

[papagenos]

Man...I'd love to join you guyses Nihilist theory but then i think my youtube videos might get REALLY boring if I did.

I guess I gotta be Agnostic theory at best, all these theories might mean something they might not, I simply dont know.

 

[osby]

What's the nihilist theory anyway?

I'm not an expert but it's like a theory that rejects all other thories and assumes nobody can predict Sakurai's line of thought. Or something like that, anyone feel free to correct me.

 

[Zinith]

I'm not an expert but it's like a theory that rejects all other thories and assumes nobody can predict Sakurai's line of thought. Or something like that, anyone feel free to correct me.

Like I told tehponycorn, I'm a Skeptic when it comes to theories, not a nihilist

 

[Nekoo]

Remember when people were swearing that Sonic's head was in that cutscenes where Ganondorf is looking at multiple Screens and taking Order? Before the hedgehog reveal?

Probably the dumbest **** I heard yet that happened to get lucky and guess who was announced?

 

[osby]

Remember when people were swearing that Sonic's head was in that cutscenes where Ganondorf is looking at multiple Screens and taking Order? Before the hedgehog reveal?

Probably the dumbest **** that happened to get lucky and guess who was announced?

So kinda like Palutena leak before Smash For?

 

[SmashShadow]

I've mainly resigned myself to not caring about leaks unless there is photos. It feels like every 3 days a new "leak" has been latched onto and I just don't have the energy for that.

 

[N3ON]

Remember when people were swearing that Sonic's head was in that cutscenes where Ganondorf is looking at multiple Screens and taking Order? Before the hedgehog reveal?

Probably the dumbest **** that happened to get lucky and guess who was announced?

I remember people saying the Sonic head was in the cutscene with ZSS looking at all the screens, because someone put it there for screenshots that were getting passed around, but that's one small facet of the conversation regarding Sonic in Smash, which began years before and kicked into overdrive once Snake was revealed. At that point, guessing Sonic would be in Brawl was not a particularly uncommon thing to do.

 

[Nekoo]

I remember people saying the Sonic head was in the cutscene with ZSS looking at all the screens, because someone put it there for screenshots that were getting passed around, but that's one small facet of the conversation regarding Sonic in Smash, which began years before and kicked into overdrive once Snake was revealed. At that point, guessing Sonic would be in Brawl was not a particularly uncommon thing to do.

Guess we must be lucky there is no screen or cutscenes in Ultimate or people would be getting Crazy.


No seriously, Smash Ultimate Leak/Discussion/Theory sounds more like theorycrafting and a totally tame respectful gentleman debate compared to the hell and mess that was the Brawl speculation

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Not only that, but if I remember well, Sonic and Toad were rumored to be planned for Melee and there were a couple of fake screenshots of them too, I remember a screenshot with Sonic on Corneria, and a "new challenger approaching" screen with Toad's silhouette but I'm not completely sure, I have seen them many years ago.

Sonic was very expected, yet, when he was announced, it still shocked everyone.

 

[Nekoo]

Sonic was very expected, yet, when he was announced, it still shocked everyone.

Because Sonic in Smash while "expected" was still in the gamer's pipe dreams of "Never ever" almost Cloud Level at the time.

Snake getting in made everyone lose their mind and we were in an "Oh god... he's coming isn't it?" Kind of excitation just waiting until he get announced while still not believing that might could happens.

 

[Robertman2]

Sonic in Brawl was mindblowing at the age of 9

 

[N3ON]

Guess we must be lucky there is no screen or cutscenes in Ultimate or people would be getting Crazy.


No seriously, Smash Ultimate Leak/Discussion/Theory sounds more like theorycrafting and a totally tame respectful gentleman debate compared to the hell and mess that was the Brawl speculation

Six of one, half dozen of the other; they all get pretty bad. People were just ruder during the Brawl era, but Smash 4 had each other screaming over a shadow and Gematsu, and now there's chairs and boxes and so much inane theorizing like people finally think they've cracked Sakurai.

 

[osby]

Guess we must be lucky there is no screen or cutscenes in Ultimate or people would be getting Crazy.


No seriously, Smash Ultimate Leak/Discussion/Theory sounds more like theorycrafting and a totally tame respectful gentleman debate compared to the hell and mess that was the Brawl speculation

Brawl was a mess but Smash For DLC was honestly exhausting. It was like a whole speculation period crammed into a tight period and people really were thinking putting down others' faves would increase the chance of the characters they root for. I mean... more than usual.

My only hope from this DLC period is that people won't hope that DLC will "fix" the roster.

 

[Shroob]

Six of one, half dozen of the other; they all get pretty bad. People were just ruder during the Brawl era, but Smash 4 had each other screaming over a shadow and Gematsu, and now there's chairs and boxes and so much inane theorizing like people finally think they've cracked Sakurai.

To be fair, a lot of us 'old guard' in Brawl days were ****ty teens. I think I was like.....16 when Brawl actually came out?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Remember when people were swearing that Sonic's head was in that cutscenes where Ganondorf is looking at multiple Screens and taking Order? Before the hedgehog reveal?

Probably the dumbest **** I heard yet that happened to get lucky and guess who was announced?

There also was the cutscene where Link and Yoshi look over the horizon and there was this loop thing as part of the environment in the distance, which once again prompted all sorts of theories as it looked like the ones Sonic run along.

Sonic had so many theories surrounding him, but of course none of them were genuine hints in the end, which is especially clear now that we know the circumstances behind his inclusion.

 

[N3ON]

Brawl was a mess but Smash For DLC was honestly exhausting. It was like a whole speculation period crammed into a tight period and people really were thinking putting down others' faves would increase the chance of the characters they root for. I mean... more than usual.

My only hope from this DLC period is that people won't hope that DLC will "fix" the roster.

Which reminds me, people going on about some current drought (even though the last reveal was literally two weeks ago) - with DLC there was (basically) nothing from the E3 releases (which, incidentally, everyone knew about since like... April) until Cloud's reveal in November. There's a drought for you.

To be fair, a lot of us 'old guard' in Brawl days were ****ty teens. I think I was like.....16 when Brawl actually came out?

Course, but there are teens here now. And only some of them seem ****ty.

The internet in general back then was more of a wasteland, the negativity these days is much more refined. For better or worse lol.

 

[osby]

Which reminds me, people going on about some current drought (even though the last reveal was literally two weeks ago) - with DLC there was (basically) nothing from the E3 releases (which, incidentally, everyone knew about since like... April) until Cloud's reveal in November. There's a drought for you.


Course, but there are teens here now. And only some of them seem ****ty.

The internet in general back then was more of a wasteland, the negativity these days is much more refined. For better or worse lol.

Only way to prevent "droughts" is to make huge reveals. Isabelle was great for me but a lot of people got over her quickly and were like "okay, but where is the good stuff?"

Hence, the box theory. I doubt it would get much traction if it was after the other two directs.

 

[Zinith]

To be fair, a lot of us 'old guard' in Brawl days were ****ty teens. I think I was like.....16 when Brawl actually came out?

See, I was 17 when Brawl came out. I wasn't privy to any of this...

 

[N3ON]

Only way to prevent "droughts" is to make huge reveals. Isabelle was great for me but a lot of people got over her quickly and were like "okay, but where is the good stuff?"

Hence, the box theory. I doubt it would get much traction if it was after the other two directs.

I think you'll find people thirsting for more is inevitable no matter who we get. Perhaps a Smash Direct like in August keeps people satiated for longer than typical reveals, but to have that kind of thing recur isn't tenable. At this point we'll be fortunate to get another instance of multiple reveals before release.

And the box theory isn't on Isabelle. Even if we had got like... ****ing Banjo-Kazooie in that last Direct, people would still want to try and deduce the final roster count of the base game. Hence the theory.

 

[osby]

I think you'll find people thirsting for more is inevitable no matter who we get. Perhaps a Smash Direct like in August keeps people satiated for longer than typical reveals, but to have that kind of thing recur isn't tenable. At this point we'll be fortunate to get another instance of multiple reveals before release.

And the box theory isn't on Isabelle. Even if we had got like... ****ing Banjo-Kazooie in that last Direct, people would still want to try and deduce the final roster count of the base game. Hence the theory.

Eh, you're right. I just wonder what will happen when the latest translation of Source Gaming will gain traction, since it pretty much confirmed we got the bulk of the reveals and remaining ones will be few and far in between.

Or did it already hapened?

 

[The_Naraotor]

I remember when Sonic was announced for Smash Bros, I was like HOLY GUACAMOLE I NEED THAT GAME ! And like Sonic will duke out with Mario HOLY MOLY ! And like damn what a time to be alive !

I lost it at Sonic, at Megaman, at Pac-Man and at Cloud, I need to lost it again with an amazing character that I didn't expect but that I want

 

[Deleted member]

Seeing all these horror stories about Brawl make me think of Smash 4's speculation as a well-organized Fight Club while Brawl's was just a straight up full PvP enabled zone

Which reminds me, people going on about some current drought (even though the last reveal was literally two weeks ago) - with DLC there was (basically) nothing from the E3 releases (which, incidentally, everyone knew about since like... April) until Cloud's reveal in November. There's a drought for you

To be fair though, we had the game in our hands and the DLC was constantly being released so it didn't matter much.

 

[Mehdow]

Seeing all these horror stories about Brawl make me think of Smash 4's speculation as a well-organized Fight Club while Brawl's was just a straight up full PvP enabled zone

To be fair though, we had the game in our hands and the DLC was constantly being released so it didn't matter much.

I started in this "speculation/theories/leaks" battlefield in Smash 4 but only in 4chan and in random places over internet. This time I'm maybe too much into it, as I'm hyped as *** for new characters (such as Isaac, Skull Kid or Banjo among others), following smashforums, gamefaqs, 4chan, sourcegaming, etc etc....

I need my daily dose of leaks/theories just to be entertained...

What happened in Brawl (or even before) times? Something to remark? I'm curious.

 

[iruchii]

I know everyone is against all kinds of theories now and such but I just wanted to clear up that a 2-character week does not "ruin" the blog theory. I think the term "theory" has been ruined in the Smash community due to all the stuff happening recently, but the blog theory is an actual theory -- meaning it has methods and is adaptive and predictive.

The blog theory doesn't say "there WILL be X characters" in the final roster. It simply makes assumptions on how the blog works based on actual data (JSON files) and circumstantial evidence (posting patterns, Direct delay). Using that information, the theory proposes more than one final result, meaning it accounts for all the possibilities. Those possibilities include a "there's only 2 characters left to be revealed", so it can literally co-exist with the box theory too.

A week having 2 characters only means that, if we don't get a 4-character week sometime, the max number of newcomers based on the theory goes from 8 to 7. The highest probability theorized was always 4 to 6 anyway, so that makes sense, even within the theory.

Also, a theory is what it is, a theory. It could always be wrong, and that's part of being a theory too. It just bothers me how everyone associates it to "blog theory claimed there are EIGHT NEWCOMERS CONFIRMED" or something crazy like that when it actually says 8 is even more improbable than 2.

 

[Robertman2]

imagine if the internet was widespread before melee

 

[Deleted member]

imagine if the internet was widespread before melee

"OMG RIDLEY, SAMURAI GOROH AND WOLF CONFIRMED!!!!"

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Speak for yourself, i've been down with the squid kids since 2015. Even after all the newcomers we've gotten so far I still haven't seen anyone who's changed my mind about maining Inkling.

The idea that the Inklings were never a popular community choice in 2015 is a myth that needs to be dispelled.

Sure, Issac isn't popular. It's not even a name.

Isaac though, he's got a ****load of fans.

Issac sucks, he'd be a generic choice for Smash Ultimate and unable to bring anything new and different in terms of diversity.

Isaac, on the other hand, would be great.

 

[Fatmanonice]

The idea that the Inklings were never a popular community choice in 2015 is a myth that needs to be dispelled.

This, along with the wide spread assertion that nobody wanted Isabelle. You don't show up in Monster Hunter and Mario Kart as a playable character if you don't have a massive following. People talk about the "bubble" of the Smash Community and people can be deaf to what's outside it and this is the leading example. Did people forget about the Mii costumes too? How Inkling was regularly breaking Top 10 in polls regarding the Smash Ballot? Isabelle regularly making Top 5 favorite Nintendo character in Japanese magazine polls since her creation? All the merch? I feel like you'd have to be in total denial to outright ignore these.

 

[Wintermelon43]

That all the other theories are dumb and we should just wait.

I'm in

 

[osby]

"OMG RIDLEY, SAMURAI GOROH AND WOLF CONFIRMED!!!!"

I mean, it's not entirely false. One of the reasons Ridley (other two to a lesser extend) got a big demand for Smash was that opening movie.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I like how people are so in denial of the box theory they’re now discounting all theories as dumb when they aren’t.
Guys, Sakurai isn’t some insane genius mastermind who can’t be predicted, as much as memes would like you to believe. Like it or not, Incineroar and Ken are 100% all we’re getting, unless Zach is correct.
Too much evidence adds up now. It’s not just math and analyzing patterns that aren’t there, there’s circumstantial evidence from Sakurai’s own mouth that practically confirms the box theory.

 

[Fatmanonice]

One argument I saw earlier against Geno is that he doesn't represent Square Enix well but, honestly, he really doesn't have to. Cloud's already in so Square Enix is already getting a slice of the proverbial pie. I think it's a common misconception that Sakurai puts on an accountant's visor and sits with an abbacus to determine exactly how much percentage second and third parties are owed based on their content. Even if he's paid DLC, it's pretty evident that Smash fans are willing to buy anyone just to have the full roster so the respective parties involved will still be getting their money either way because its more realistically a pool than anything else. "What about advertising?" I think people are looking too deeply into it, considering now that we actually have a third party character that blows well past Geno when it comes to obscurity, Richter, with rereleases only being rumors at the moment. Plus, if you still want to jump on that boat, there's the SNES Classic that has SMRPG on it, an argument that could technically be made for K. Rool and Simon too.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Plus, if you still want to jump on that boat, there's the SNES Classic that has SMRPG on it, an argument that could technically be made for K. Rool and Simon too.

The SNES Classic was pretty successful, selling around 5 million units.

 

[FalconFire93]

I remember when Sonic was announced for Smash Bros, I was like HOLY GUACAMOLE I NEED THAT GAME ! And like Sonic will duke out with Mario HOLY MOLY ! And like damn what a time to be alive !

I lost it at Sonic, at Megaman, at Pac-Man and at Cloud, I need to lost it again with an amazing character that I didn't expect but that I want

It still blew my mind when Sonic was in all those years ago in Brawl when I was in middle school, one of my friends said that he’d never be in the game until he was revealed and I basically said to him “I told ya so” but the character that made me speechless the most so far has been Cloud because I never thought I’d see the day that he’d make it in.

 

[Nekoo]

" I think people are looking too deeply into it, considering now that we actually have a third party character that blows well past Geno when it comes to obscurity, Richter,

Japan will have a words with you for Richter. Also Literally everyone and their mother who played Symphony of the night knows Richter dude. Bad comparison.



And if you say "it's just Japan" then I can tell you how practically next to no one played SMRPG in Europe and most of his following comes from THE SMASH COMMUNITY basically.

Like, it can be a Roy/Marth scenario but putting Geno as a DLC (if he's as DLC and not base game) In a region where he's literally a nobody beside the hardcore Europe smash community (so VERY small basically) and very few people who brought SMRPG on the wiiware

Geno have a LOT of chance, but using the "DUH Someone else is Obscure" argument is grasping at straws to hide a big Issue

Also once again You're right. He don't have to represent Square but like I said before it all comes down to Sakurai, sitting down with the Square Exec and thinking.
"Do I push the limit for another miraculous deal that will blow everyone's mind? And probably be well received everywhere?"
"Or do I take the obscure Characters in that Sea of Iconics Square-Enix Character as a love letters to the fan of my Series even if he's obvious?"


Both at valid points. All Square Rep have pros and cons. But Geno ALSO have his glaring issues NONETHELESS.
I will be Happy if he's in. Or if any Square-Enix Rep is in really. They're too great and Iconics of a company lmao.