Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[TheKnight]

...What reason is there to believe characters would share trailers, outside of a Richter echo situation?

Because anything could happen. Whether or not something has happened before means nothing, but there also have been double reveals in the past for Smash 4 so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Fane]

My expectations have been lowered to 4 unique newcomers and 3 Echoes left to show, fitting with the 'Blog theory'.(I believe it was 7?)

If I had to guess, it'd probably be: Incineroar, Geno, Steve, and either Isaac/Skull Kid/Bandana Dee. Then for Echoes: Ken, Shadow, and Dixie Kong. I say this because of well... Vergeben.

The last newcomer picks are because they're super popular characters, and I doubt Sakurai would only have Geno up his sleeve for a community favorite pick. It just doesn't make sense he'd have one 'ballot' choice after saying he looked AT the Smash Ballot when picking newcomers this time around. I could see him doing any one of them and saving the others for DLC, after all they'd be big hits for the community and it would pull in money.

As for the Echoes, well... Dixie and Shadow are likely in the forefront due to popularity, so I'd have to guess them.

I could see a single reveal in October(Fighter and maybe an Echo) and then an info dump in November revealing the rest of the characters, stages, a heap of assists/items/Pokemon, and light shed on the Spirits mode and other modes that are new/returning.

 

[Akg0001]

Imo dixie kong has to be in smash 5. With the inclusion of echoes there is no reason or excuse of no dixie kong. If dark samus is an echo, then dixie is almost guaranteed right?

 

[KingofKoopas]

Imo dixie kong has to be in smash 5. With the inclusion of echoes there is no reason or excuse of no dixie kong. If dark samus is an echo, then dixie is almost guaranteed right?

I see no reason why not she played almost exactly like Diddy in Tropical Freeze there has to be something going there right?

 

[papagenos]

Sakurais new statement doesnt really change my thoughts on what we are probably getting.

likely ken+incineroar with the slight possibility of a square rep/steve?/and maybe shadow.

my personal guess is still going to be ken and incineroar with the square rep held off for a final surprise reveal, but i will admit its possibly a DLC thing announced before launch to show that there will be DLC.

 

[staindgrey]

Imo dixie kong has to be in smash 5. With the inclusion of echoes there is no reason or excuse of no dixie kong. If dark samus is an echo, then dixie is almost guaranteed right?

I'd argue that Dixie isn't similar enough to Diddy to be an echo.

But then again, I'd also argue Daisy isn't similar enough to Peach to be an echo. So. Eh.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

At this point I find it likely that all or most characters have already "leaked". When Vergeben says "Incineroar, Ken, Square Enix character, Minecraft content" and when Senjougahara says "Square Enix character, Steve" etc, we're probably looking at the final roster, maybe with one more echo left out. In which case, the final roster is probably something like:

Incineroar
Square Enix character (probably Geno)
Steve
Ken
Shadow

Which I would not be disappointed with at all. Especially not with DLC on the horizon. I'm a little surprised that Bandana Dee isn't in the game, considering he's the #1 Japanese pick, but maybe he'll be DLC pretty soon. I also think that Steve is probably a gateway to Banjo-Kazooie as DLC.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I think we have more than two left. But not many more.

I still don't think they front loaded THAT badly. Badly enough for fake leaks with more than 6 characters remaining to be given the time of day but not so badly that we're a single trailer off done.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm pretty sure another Smash Direct is imminent, too much content still left to explain that needs explaining, mainly Spirits and the other remaining modes but also Trophies and Assist Trophies.
Also, I'd really like to see an alternate costume showcase considering it seems we have plenty of those(and maybe some not announced yet) AND a second "Everyone is Here!" trailer with all the newcomers that will also work as the game's intro.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Why are people believing Shadow now?

 

[Opossum]

I'm pretty sure another Smash Direct is imminent, too much content still left to explain that needs explaining, mainly Spirits and the other remaining modes but also Trophies and Assist Trophies.
Also, I'd really like to see an alternate costume showcase considering it seems we have plenty of those(and maybe some not announced yet) AND a second "Everyone is Here!" trailer with all the newcomers that will also work as the game's intro.

Honestly I don't expect the next and final Direct until November.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm seeing some people think this means Nintendo is gonna delay the game. I'm...a bit confused by this? What part of Sakurai's comment made that seem that was the case? This game is Nintendo's big holiday game, they pretty much need it to come out when it's supposed to or their holiday lineup is ruined IMO.

Also, if it's delayed, when do you delay it to? January has Kingdom Hearts for competition and unless the game is super behind, why would you delay it past a month or two? Doesn't make much sense to me, but eh, to each their own I guess.

 

[Untouch]

"And we should be finishing up development soon…I hope!"
DLC likely hasn't started development yet then, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been planned.
If Sakurai had to renegotiate Cloud's inclusion another SE character could have been brought up as well.

 

[hposter]

man, i never thought we'd see our final predictions filled with so many third parties
ken?
shadow?
steve?
a square enix character?
i'm not so sure we'd get that many new third party fighters outside of echoes
however, ken and shadow would make a clean half of first () and third party ( Ken and Shadow) echoes introduced in ultimate
proooobably not gonna happen though, at least not for that reason

 

[Mega Bidoof]

How can people believe the Box Theory when Sakurai specifically said there was a "few" more Echo fighters left to be announced before launch, during the Smash Direct. Ken is only 1 of the few. Doesn't that factual statement completely debunk the theory?

He said fighters in general. K. Rool, Isabelle, Ken, and Incineroar would be a few.

And while I’ve always thought Shadow was likely, it seems REALLY odd they would leave a spot for Ken, but not for any other echo.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

I feel a bit calmer about things, now that I've read the Famitsu column Pushdustin just put up. There's so many ways to interpret that cautioning statement. It doesn't mean there's less characters, just that we shouldn't be expecting further blowouts character wise.

On a further note, it's nice to actually get an explanation of why Isabelle isn't an echo fighter. Her moves and such might be similar, but at the same time they're all very different in execution, which is kind of neat. Then when you look at Daisy, Lucina, and Dark Pit, you can see their actions are roughly the the same in motion and delivery. Once we know what we're looking for, it's pretty obvious in retrospect huh?

 

[Midget Master]

I do think 3-4 is probably the theoretical most we could get, with the more likely outcome being as few as just Ken and Incineroar. Probably looking at exactly one direct remaining, too, which I'd think would be closer to release and perhaps with a mention of a DLC character in progress. The prediction a few pages back that had Incineroar, Geno, Shadow and Ken as the remaining characters strikes me as the best case and most likely four, but I do think that DLC is gonna be a big thing in this game. So for people whose characters might not be making it to the base game, hope (and hype) springs eternal.

Especially when you consider that this time around, there's literally no veterans to return via DLC slots. Even if we just get the same 7 as Smash 4, that would be 7 completely new characters. So all sorts of things can have a chance.

 

[Untouch]

Come to think about it... Cloud was released late 2015, so he may not have been a part of the original project plan which would mean that neither was the SE character...

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I will say, while there are a lot of ways to interpret Sakurai’s statement, I am beginning to think the hype for Ultimate has finally peaked and now there’s nowhere to go but down until DLC is announced.
That is, unless Spirits ends up being story mode, which is a 50/50 shot of happening.

 

[KingofKoopas]

Smash 64 had 12 characters brand new
Melee Introduced 14 newcomers had no cuts
Brawl had 18 (counting pokemon trainers pokemon seperately) but cut 4
Smash 4 added 16, cut Snake but brought back Dr Mario.
Then its DLC added 4 newcomers and 3 Veterans bringing
Total newcomers for Smash 4 is 20

I am sure that what sakurai meant was less than 16 or 20 newcomers because lets all be real that smash 4 went above and beyond.

Depending on if you count Echoes or not We have 5 Wholly new Newcomers and 6 echoes, a total of 11.

Its up to interpretation from there but 4 more newcomers and maybe 3 more echoes isnt out of the realm of possibility considering that Echoes and Clones are easy to develop for and added at the end stage of the game because of how easy they are, but I'm sure this isn't true because Muh Picture of a Box.

 

[Untouch]

IIRC a couple of the characters have different file formats than the rest.
Did that start with cloud or ryu?

 

[SAMation]

Again, this is technically false. They began work on Mewtwo before Smash 4 was finished. The thing is, towards the end of development, there are people on the team without jobs to do like concept artists, 3D modelers, etc. And rather than lay them off, they move them to other projects. Sometimes games move those people to DLC.

Creating a new fighter and balancing him across this big of a roster is way too large a task to expect day one DLC, yes, but there's likely already a small team working on it right now. Just like Mewtwo.

I agree with this, what I meant was a general sort of finish with the game, where a lot of characters and stages and such are already mostly complete to the point they feel they’re ready to work on post game content that they couldn’t make to the deadline of release date. They wouldn’t hold a character that’s ready for release and just lock it behind a paywall on the first day. It’s also a risk in the sense of not only the fighter being unbalanced, but the negative backlash from the smash community, which I’m sure sakurai wants to please as much as he can. He’s smart and I’m sure he knows Day 1 DLC is a bad practice to do.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Smash 64 had 12 characters brand new
Melee Introduced 14 newcomers had no cuts
Brawl had 18 (counting pokemon trainers pokemon seperately) but cut 4
Smash 4 added 16, cut Snake but brought back Dr Mario.
Then its DLC added 4 newcomers and 3 Veterans bringing
Total newcomers for Smash 4 is 20

I am sure that what sakurai meant was less than 16 or 20 newcomers because lets all be real that smash 4 went above and beyond.

Depending on if you count Echoes or not We have 5 Wholly new Newcomers and 6 echoes, a total of 11.

Its up to interpretation from there but 4 more newcomers and maybe 3 more echoes isnt out of the realm of possibility considering that Echoes and Clones are easy to develop for and added at the end stage of the game because of how easy they are, but I'm sure this isn't true because Muh Picture of a Box.

Smash 4 added 17, so its total count was 21. Also two of the six echoes you're counting aren't newcomers (Lucina and Dark Pit). We're still at 9 newcomers.

 

[MamaLuigi123456]

Opinion: leak culture in video games is one of the worst things to happen.

Bunch of people begging for attention, claiming they have legit info. And when they do, they shouldn't have been trusted with it in the first place.

 

[GolisoPower]

That is, unless Spirits ends up being story mode, which is a 50/50 shot of happening.

What if Spirits ends up being the story mode, but has an additional DLC story with post-release characters included? Like, say, Torna. None of the characters except for Mythra, Brighid and Aegaeon (And Jin at some point) were playable in the base game, but the Torna story has Haze, Lora, Minoth, Addam and Hugo as playable characters. Sure, I’m not making the right choice using a JRPG example for a Fighting game, but I’m sure you get what I’m saying. Also, as planned as MvCI was, maybe take a few notes from that and reveal a few DLC characters in the base game. That one would probably be a bad idea, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

 

[KingofKoopas]

Opinion: leak culture in video games is one of the worst things to happen.

Bunch of people begging for attention, claiming they have legit info. And when they do, they shouldn't have been trusted with it in the first place.

Rebuttal: it also is a great deterrant for if there is a legitimate leak of info like the ESRB leak.

What if Spirits ends up being the story mode, but has an additional DLC story with post-release characters included? Like, say, Torna. None of the characters except for Mythra, Brighid and Aegaeon (And Jin at some point) were playable in the base game, but the Torna has Haze, Lora, Minoth, Addam and Hugo as playable characters. Sure, I’m not making the right choice using a JRPG example for a Fighting game, but I’m sure you get what I’m saying. Also, as planned as MvCI was, maybe take a few notes from that and reveal a few DLC characters in the base game. That one would probably be a bad idea, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

Remind me how that ended for MvCI?

 

[GolisoPower]

Remind me how that ended for MvCI?

Monster Hunter, Sigma and Black Panther were in the story mode, but they weren’t playable in the base game before they were released as DLC. MvCI was panned for visuals, some mechanics and the aforementioned story mode, but the latter’s preview of DLC characters made me think, “Hey, maybe Smash can draw hype with this.” Now that I think about it, maybe they can go the SFV route as well: make the DLC characters playable in the base story as a sort of beta test, like they did with Juri and Urien.

 

[Nekoo]

Come to think about it... Cloud was released late 2015, so he may not have been a part of the original project plan which would mean that neither was the SE character...

There is Placeholder Data for Cloud and Bayo as back as two week after the Ballot started dude so early 2015.
He 100% had the right back then.

 

[KingofKoopas]

Monster Hunter, Sigma and Black Panther were in the story mode, but they weren’t playable in the base game before they were released as DLC. MvCI was panned for visuals, some mechanics and the aforementioned story mode, but the latter’s preview of DLC characters made me think, “Hey, maybe Smash can draw hype with this.” Now that I think about it, maybe they can go the SFV route as well: make the DLC characters playable in the base story as a sort of beta test, like they did with Juri and Urien.

Yes Smash Bros. needs to emulate games that are getting near universally panned like MvCI and SFV. What next adding Loot Boxes?

 

[Fatmanonice]

Why are people believing Shadow now?

-Currently MIA despite being an AT in two games.

-We already have Dark Pit and Dark Samus as Echos along with three Dark Links, Dark Metaknight, and Blood Falcon as ALTs so, why not?

-Seemingly big emphasis on rivals in this game.

He's easily the second most likely echo after Ken at this point.

 

[Starbound]

Wow that's a lot of pages! Any new developments?

 

[Fenriraga]

Opinion: leak culture in video games is one of the worst things to happen.

Bunch of people begging for attention, claiming they have legit info. And when they do, they shouldn't have been trusted with it in the first place.

You're not wrong, and yet here we are, eating it up like candy.

So it's not like we're that much better. :V

 

[GolisoPower]

Yes Smash Bros. needs to emulate games that are getting near universally panned like MvCI and SFV. What next adding Loot Boxes?

To be fair, Street Fighter 5: Arcade Edition was a bounce-back for the game, but I’m not gonna advocate Smash loot boxes.

 

[KingofKoopas]

Wow that's a lot of pages! Any new developments?

Mostly more Cardboard Boxes.

 

[Untouch]

Wow that's a lot of pages! Any new developments?

Sakurai said reveals are going to slow down and we aren't getting reveals up until release.
Which translates to we're getting 3 more directs and 8 reveals.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Wow that's a lot of pages! Any new developments?

No, just arguing the semantics of "a few" and "too many." We're at the point in speculation where everyone kind of resents each other because they either think people are expecting too much or two little. Doesn't help that all we have to go on is translations so we're left with another "up until now" situation.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Yes Smash Bros. needs to emulate games that are getting near universally panned like MvCI and SFV. What next adding Loot Boxes?

This is what I keep ****ing telling people but no one listens, everyone’s just all “it’s fiiiiine”

 

[SAMation]

Mostly more Cardboard Boxes.

The REAL box theory is the cardboard labo boy is the last newcomer for smash and his character portrait isn’t on there because he IS the box

 

[Thinkaman]

I mean, Shadow does seem like a shoo-in for some sort of "Echo Pack" DLC.

It might make more sense, from a rights/legal/business perspective, to have him be DLC. We don't know the specifics behind Sonic in Smash, and how requesting another playable character might affect that.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Opinion: leak culture in video games is one of the worst things to happen.

Bunch of people begging for attention, claiming they have legit info. And when they do, they shouldn't have been trusted with it in the first place.

I actually do feel this way, but not because I feel like it's inherently unethical or anything. Just because, I know I would have enjoyed the reveals of characters like Ridley, and if they actually are coming, a Square Enix character and Steve more, if they hadn't been leaked. The Dojo was the best.